Poeltl & Pascal - The 2016 Draft

[DanH]

It's possible but the flip side to that coin is, the NBA is no guarantee, and right now you have someone paying you to go to school and get an education. I think you could probably sort that out pretty quick in an interview. Another upside is I would have less questions about character, which can have huge effect on a locker room. Does a 4 year College educated Okafor get into a fight at a strip club? Maybe, maybe not, but if I had money on the line I know where I'd put it

Oh, there are loads of reasons why a senior would be a superior safe bet than a younger player.

But NBA GM's do not fall in love with safe bets at the draft (for very good reason).

[thead]

Oh, there are loads of reasons why a senior would be a superior safe bet than a younger player.

But NBA GM's do not fall in love with safe bets at the draft (for very good reason).

I would be a very unpopular/popular GM. I'm going with the surest bet I can anywhere in the 20 - 40 range. I'll use 1 - 20 and 40 - 60 for my upside/dleague filler

[3inthekeon]

Any idea why Valentine isn't tracking higher? He averages damn near a triple double. Is it because seniors are frowned upon?

Other strikes against Valentine are a lack of elite athleticism and his height (6-5 per Ford, 6-6 per DX)

[mcHAPPY]

All the better for us. If we can get him with our own pick, then amazing.

But yeah, seniors track lower until March Madness approaches. Right now, all the big boards are enamoured with potential guys who may not produce enough in the college season to get drafted (remember when MacAdoo was projected as a top 5 pick - then he actually played some college games?).

Once some of the shine goes off the youngin's, better upper classmen will start to show up on the big boards more.

Dude is a front runner for POY. Being a senior didn't hurt Kaminsky's draft stock last year.

Think you have some senior bias going on. Haha.

Kaminsky shows it only takes one team. Charlotte had a few misses with young raw players after years of tanking.

[DanH]

I would be a very unpopular/popular GM. I'm going with the surest bet I can anywhere in the 20 - 40 range. I'll use 1 - 20 and 40 - 60 for my upside/dleague filler

It's a strange tactic to take. If you are hoping for an 8th-12th guy in the draft, how valuable is that? You get them on a rookie scale deal worth about 1M per year, when you could buy a similarly talented player on the market for the MLE or below, saving you at most about 4M per year on guys who aren't going to make a huge impact anyway. Or you swing for the fences, and if you hit, you save massive amounts and get a chance to surround the real talent you have with other real talent before your draftee gets a big pay raise eventually.

There's just not much reward in finding a role player in the draft. They are typically fairly available on the market. Stars, and even solid starters, not so much.

[3inthekeon]

I'd be hesitant to use a top ten pick on him but this year seems to lack a guaranteed all-star outside of top 5. Maybe we reach if we land at 12 - 13

Our pick isn't top 10, at least I hope like hell isn't. Pretty sure the pick Mack was referring to is in the 20-25 range.

[thead]

Our pick isn't top 10, at least I hope like hell isn't. Pretty sure the pick Mack was referring to is in the 20-25 range.

I just called it our pick, I'm aware we have two and the higher one's landing spot is firmly out of our control

[Axel]

It's possible but the flip side to that coin is, the NBA is no guarantee, and right now you have someone paying you to go to school and get an education. I think you could probably sort that out pretty quick in an interview. Another upside is I would have less questions about character, which can have huge effect on a locker room. Does a 4 year College educated Okafor get into a fight at a strip club? Maybe, maybe not, but if I had money on the line I know where I'd put it

I can think of another place you'd put your money.

[thead]

I can think of another place you'd put your money.

When does your mother work next?

[Axel]

Think you have some senior bias going on. Haha.

Not really. The big boards thing is true. Oct/Dec big boards are dominated by Freshman because no one knows enough information on any of them and it's all potential based.

Once the games are played, some of hype goes away and those guys move down. If a guy struggles in college as a freshman, he isn't likely to be a lotto pick.

The opposite is true of upper classman. People peg them as one thing but as they develop and perhaps their teammates change (impacting roles from previous years), the production of the season starts to narrow the gap on the freshman potential, overtaking the stragglers.

People believe the myth that seniors "are the players they will be when drafted", but many NBA players develop after their "college ages". DD would be the most targeted example but plenty do; it's just on a different scale than the younger draftees.

Denzel Valentine is a good example of all of this. He has been pegged by DX as a 2nd rounder last year. Then at the start of this season, he moved up to 26th on their mock. He currently sits at 16th. I could see him anywhere from 10-20 depending on how well the Spartans do. He's a guy who shared the court with other guys but is now this year getting insane usage because the team lost playmakers. Development and situation changes the game. He's improved a lot and is playing amazing right now.

I wouldn't take a senior in the top 10 and maybe not even the lotto (depending on the draft) because the room for growth is less and at that stage of the draft you need to hit on all stars. But from 16 on, law of diminishing returns. As you get later in the draft, choice is really swing for the fences or draft a solid single/double (to complete the baseball analogy).

Masai has had two picks at 20 and employed both strategies. Bruno is the all potential pick. Wright is the solid contributor (assuming he plays). Both are BPA options at that pick, just one has a body of work to go off of and one has a body with potential.

End of the day, at 20 you pick who you think is going to be the better basketball player. Portis didn't look great coming out of Arkansas imo. Wright projects as a great defensive prospect (always in demand) and a versatile player (always in demand but especially in this NBA era).

[mcHAPPY]

Not really. The big boards thing is true. Oct/Dec big boards are dominated by Freshman because no one knows enough information on any of them and it's all potential based.

Once the games are played, some of hype goes away and those guys move down. If a guy struggles in college as a freshman, he isn't likely to be a lotto pick.

The opposite is true of upper classman. People peg them as one thing but as they develop and perhaps their teammates change (impacting roles from previous years), the production of the season starts to narrow the gap on the freshman potential, overtaking the stragglers.

People believe the myth that seniors "are the players they will be when drafted", but many NBA players develop after their "college ages". DD would be the most targeted example but plenty do; it's just on a different scale than the younger draftees.

Denzel Valentine is a good example of all of this. He has been pegged by DX as a 2nd rounder last year. Then at the start of this season, he moved up to 26th on their mock. He currently sits at 16th. I could see him anywhere from 10-20 depending on how well the Spartans do. He's a guy who shared the court with other guys but is now this year getting insane usage because the team lost playmakers. Development and situation changes the game. He's improved a lot and is playing amazing right now.

I wouldn't take a senior in the top 10 and maybe not even the lotto (depending on the draft) because the room for growth is less and at that stage of the draft you need to hit on all stars. But from 16 on, law of diminishing returns. As you get later in the draft, choice is really swing for the fences or draft a solid single/double (to complete the baseball analogy).

Masai has had two picks at 20 and employed both strategies. Bruno is the all potential pick. Wright is the solid contributor (assuming he plays). Both are BPA options at that pick, just one has a body of work to go off of and one has a body with potential.

End of the day, at 20 you pick who you think is going to be the better basketball player. Portis didn't look great coming out of Arkansas imo. Wright projects as a great defensive prospect (always in demand) and a versatile player (always in demand but especially in this NBA era).

Talent follows the money and generally at first chance. Higher talent usually goes early. Busts happen at all levels of draft and ages of players selected.

Im surprised not impressed with Portis. I wasn't over the moon for him but thought he was impressive given age (young soph), physical attributes, motor/aggressiveness, and SEC POY.

[Axel]

Talent follows the money and generally at first chance. Higher talent usually goes early. Busts happen at all levels of draft and ages of players selected.

Im surprised not impressed with Portis. I wasn't over the moon for him but thought he was impressive given age (young soph), physical attributes, motor/aggressiveness, and SEC POY.

Portis seemed like a hustle energy guy but didn't see much skill. Quincy Acy with longer arms and less beard. Didn't think he'd move the needle for us. Really wanted perimeter defenders, so Wright and RHJ were my targets.

[MACK11]

Portis seemed like a hustle energy guy but didn't see much skill. Quincy Acy with longer arms and less beard. Didn't think he'd move the needle for us. Really wanted perimeter defenders, so Wright and RHJ were my targets.

ACY was 6'7" ,Portis is 6'11"
Acy cant shoot, Portis can

[mcHAPPY]

Ivan Rabb had a good game against Utah and Jake Poeltl

Both guys 19/10 but Rabb did it on 7/12 and 5/6ft vs. 6/14 and 7/9 ft

[mcHAPPY]

NBA scouts seemed lukewarm on Cal frosh Ivan Rabb entering season due to slender build, but a long-time scout just called him a lottery pick

— Marc J. Spears (@SpearsNBAYahoo) January 4, 2016