Poeltl & Pascal - The 2016 Draft

[DanH]

I've always been a BPA guy, but maybe not this year.

Analytics love this guy and give him the best projections of all the players we've been linked to.

The fivethirtyeight model has him being less of a chance be a bust than any other college player in the draft.

DX ranks him (not mock, rank) #8. But Pelton in his analytic projections states why he'll probably end up drafted lower than he should.

I really wouldn't put much emphasis on those statistical models. They've been as disastrously wrong on players as any other source.

The arguments in here are mostly not about whether we should take BPA. I honestly don't see in Poeltl's game anything that puts him above the other prospects in that draft range. So I don't think he is clear cut BPA, that's why I'm not saying we should draft him.

[MixxAOR]

Andre Drummond is what makes me very leary of not drafting Skal. Remember all the shit people talked about Drummond in the draft? And look at what he is now.

Im thinking somebody like DeAndre Jordan. He fell to second round. Scouts questioned his mindset

[BobLoblaw]

One of the nice things about having multiple first rounders is that the rookie salary isn't tied to the cap, these players will be on absolute bargain contracts for the next 4 years.

Sabonis seems like a nice safe pick but still prefer Davis at 9 unless someone drops.

Saw McCaw mocked to us at 27 a few weeks ago, basically sounds very similar to Powell (long athletic wing who needs to develop his shot).

Yeah, although McCaw kind of reminds me more of a tall Patrick Beverley or such. A very raw Larry Hughes maybe. He looks great defending point guards, he's a real hound, not very smart defending off the ball. Also he has some point guard mentality, good vision. 3pt shot looks broken.

[Axel]

Yeah, although McCaw kind of reminds me more of a tall Patrick Beverley or such. A very raw Larry Hughes maybe. He looks great defending point guards, he's a real hound, not very smart defending off the ball. Also he has some point guard mentality, good vision. 3pt shot looks broken.

A hounding on ball defender at 27 is pretty good value.

I haven't seen any film about him though, so going only on what I've read.

[Apollo]

Sorry, I'm not following this thread, but I found this..

Was told by a couple of people Toronto might be Sabonis' promise hence why he shut down workouts https://t.co/PjSvNiuZqJ

— Steve Kyler (@stevekylerNBA) June 15, 2016

Anyone else want Sabonis? I'm not that really high on him.

I'm happy about this if Ujiri goes this way.

Sabonis is can't miss. He'll still be in the league in 2026. A lot of the guys going around him, while they're interesting players, will not be in the league in 2026. Because that's the NBA draft.

What's his ceiling you wonder? I don't know but he can certainly be good enough to start. Now that he has the range it opens up a lot of his game. Its great he's been working on this even though he never had the green light to do it for his team.

[BobLoblaw]

A hounding on ball defender at 27 is pretty good value.

I haven't seen any film about him though, so going only on what I've read.

Yep, I agree, good gamble at 27. Another similar guy is Shumpert (but Shumpert had a more developed body). Very raw, but if he fixes his shot, he could be a steal.

[Apollo]

I actually think they should move up into the early 20's to take Valentine. I know he has the knee thing but you're getting good value despite that in the early 20's.

[Axel]

Yep, I agree, good gamble at 27. Another similar guy is Shumpert (but Shumpert had a more developed body). Very raw, but if he fixes his shot, he could be a steal.

As long as he doesn't have Shumpert's hair game, I'd be fine with a Shump at 27.

[Axel]

I actually think they should move up into the early 20's to take Valentine. I know he has the knee thing but you're getting good value despite that in the early 20's.

Only hard thing with that is that it's really hard to peg where he will go, so where do you target? I find it hard to believe that he'll last until 20s, in fact I'm thinking Pacers at 17 are his stopping point if he falls. Bird wanted to improve the offence (as per Vogel dismissal) and Valentine would certainly fit that.

[BobLoblaw]

I actually think they should move up into the early 20's to take Valentine. I know he has the knee thing but you're getting good value despite that in the early 20's.

Yep would love him too, or Taurean Prince. It's so hard to talk about this draft and moving up, because mocks are all over the place, Prince for example is mid-teens in some mocks, outside top 30 in others.

If Valentine didn't have the knee issue, I'd love him at 9.

[BobLoblaw]

Pacers have no.20, but yep, that makes sense to me. Also I don't know how Detroit and Van Gundy could pass on him at 18. He's perfect for Van Gundy.

[Apollo]

Only hard thing with that is that it's really hard to peg where he will go, so where do you target? I find it hard to believe that he'll last until 20s, in fact I'm thinking Pacers at 17 are his stopping point if he falls. Bird wanted to improve the offence (as per Vogel dismissal) and Valentine would certainly fit that.

If you're wrong I think you talk to the teams in 20-25 and see if they're willing to deal. Work out the price and let them know its conditional on an unnamed player being there. When the time comes to pick, have them pick him and then do the swap.

I don't think they need him so they don't go after him in the teens but he would be too good to not go after in the 20's.

Yep would love him too, or Taurean Prince. It's so hard to talk about this draft and moving up, because mocks are all over the place, Prince for example is mid-teens in some mocks, outside top 30 in others.

If Valentine didn't have the knee issue, I'd love him at 9.

And the knee thing doesn't mean he's the next Danny Granger. It just means he's at risk. That said, who wouldn't deal for a rookie Danny Granger in the 20's? Five to six all star level seasons and a couple more average seasons would be amazing value for a pick in the 20's. That's not my prediction for Valetine but that's what Danny Granger was(even though he did go in the mid teens).

[3inthekeon]

I really wouldn't put much emphasis on those statistical models. They've been as disastrously wrong on players as any other source.

The arguments in here are mostly not about whether we should take BPA. I honestly don't see in Poeltl's game anything that puts him above the other prospects in that draft range. So I don't think he is clear cut BPA, that's why I'm not saying we should draft him.

Of course models have been disastrously wrong. So has DX and all other on-line evaluators. So have NBA teams.

However, when scouts and analytics agree, chances of getting a star, or not picking a bust improve, even if only slightly.

Poeltl fits both, which is why, solely in my mind, he'll probably be the BPA at 9. I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else.

For me alone, I think Deyonta is my choice, all things considered, assuming Jamal, Chriss etc are gone as expected.

I'm risk averse by nature which is why I personally don't like seemingly boom or bust guys like Skal or Jaylen. I'd miss out on both Wesbrooks and Thabeets.

But in a few days Masai will pick someone and whether I like the pick or not, I'll concede he's made the pick for the right reasons. He's not a Rob Babcock.

[Chr1s1anL]

This Jakob Poeltl guy is pretty good at basketball.

[BobLoblaw]

If you're wrong I think you talk to the teams in 20-25 and see if they're willing to deal. Work out the price and let them know its conditional on an unnamed player being there. When the time comes to pick, have them pick him and then do the swap.

I don't think they need him so they don't go after him in the teens but he would be too good to not go after in the 20's.


And the knee thing doesn't mean he's the next Danny Granger. It just means he's at risk. That said, who wouldn't deal for a rookie Danny Granger in the 20's? Five to six all star level seasons and a couple more average seasons would be amazing value for a pick in the 20's. That's not my prediction for Valetine but that's what Danny Granger was(even though he did go in the mid teens).

I'm just basically in "whatever Masai decides" mode here. I've no idea if he'll have a Granger-long career, shorter, longer, so whatever Masai and his medical staff would think, my opinion is the same. Knees are all different anyway, and I'm not a doctor.

I just have an opinion about his talent, and I think that his floor is a solid NBA starter, if his health doesn't derail him.

He has almost everything else going for him, great skill level, length, feel for the game, great character, basketball family pedigree, leadership abilities -- the type of person who seeks out end-of-bench people in college and hangs out with them, so they feel part of the team. He doesn't have quickness and won't be a good defender or an iso player, but otherwise, I think he's very good.

If he's available at 20ish, I think his knees would have to be pretty much busted, otherwise you take him.