The 2015/16 Eastern Conference Predictions Thread

[psrs1]

I have 2 concerns about DC.

First, his offensive production was due in large part to being the 5th option on offense, in a pass-heavy, team-oriented system. Coming to Toronto, a team that heavily relies on ISO play and little off-ball movement, as player they intend to feature a little more prominently, he might suffer a bit of a let down this season.

Second, if DC takes a premiere wing defender and asks him to play substantial minutes as an undersized PF, I fear for Carroll... and our collective sanity.

Yeah ball movement is key individually for DC and collectively as a team. IF the ball movement improves we will be very good BUT if ISO heavy again we will be average.

[DanH]

i dont think Ross had that many open threes, From what I remember there was alot of them where he wasn't completly set and it was contested.

Perhaps I am not remembering...

66% of Ross' threes last year were classified as either "Open" or "Wide Open."

[Snooch]

66% of Ross' threes last year were classified as either "Open" or "Wide Open."

meh, thats not too bad.

[Dino4life]

So much change on east rosters, This is so much harder then in other years. I have a hard time figuring out where the raptors will end up. I'll just give tiers, because i might has well just flip a coin for seeding.

Tier 1: stays on top
Cleveland
Atlanta: They will 100% regress, when you get 60 wins and loose a starter you can only go down, but they are the only ones i see as a lock to be top 4 still besides cleveland. They'll miss carroll but they'll manage.

Tier 2: Have improved
Miami: If healthy they have a great starting five. But its a long season lots of new parts to integrate. Dragic & Bosh still have never played together. They'll be average most of the season, but they'll get a stretch where everyone is healthy where they'll get hot and that will carry them in the top 4 by season's end.

Hornets: On paper they have improved, but they improve on Paper every single season, & for some reason it just never works out. They could make the playoffs as low seed or get a top 5 pick. Just flip a coin.

Boston: I'm not as high on Boston as read from the analysts who think they are on a path to greatness. But at least it seems Danny Ainge as Finnally made up his mind. The last two seasons they've been wavering on to Tank or not to Tank and it showed. They looked like they wanted to tank but Brad Stevens told them FU. Now they signed to Amir, they look like they want to make the playoffs & might stop trading starters mid-season.

Tier 3: Might take a step Back to be better later
Chicago: Changed Coach
Bucks: Lost their veterans for greg monroe
Raptors: Changed their philosophy but kept the coach ????

Those teams have the majority of their teams back, but are going to have to do some major Changes during training camp. Predicting how to works out is just guess work.

Tier 4: Did nothing or nothing important
Washington: I just don't see where their improvements are gonna come from. They'll look like they regressed just by staying the same.
Brooklyn: Still 3 more years of regretting trading every first rounders for overpaid players.
NY: Has much as the media tries to glorify their FA signings. They were shit before Melo got injured, & before they gave away their players. Knicks are still nowhere near the playoffs (HURRAY FOR US)
Indiana: Paul George & ......... No David west, No hibbert, No stephenson. Stop living in the past its rebuild time.
Detroit: Coach's shouldn't be GMs & their own boss.
Orlando: Keep drafting
Philly: Keep tanking to draft a 5th big man. Then maybe they'll have the counter to small-ball, 4 Centers on the floor with Saric as point guard. 73-9 in 2 years BOOK IT.

[Demographic Shift]

Harden was great in OKC, bad example, he just needed more minutes, and more ball which there wasnt enough of.
Iggy took a backup role, but he was damn solid in Denver. Not a huge difference in play imo.
And Diaw went to the fucking Spurs. the Spurs. They could sign Bargnani right now and ake him look fantastic.

I can do more.

Jalen Rose in Toronto
peja
hughes
kmart
simmons

You once again change the discussion point. You were questioning the "fit" of players once they switched teams and intimated they regress. You used Hedo as an example. Hedo did regress but he hit the wall after that one run in Orlando. He sucked here and pretty much sucked anywhere after.
So guys who switched teams and didn't regress were names like Harden and Igudola and Diaw.
Can't remember far enough back to know if Jalew Rose was better or worse than he was when he got here or when he went to the Knicks. Peja was an expiring and a salary dump. He never played in the NBA after Toronto.
Who are Hughes and Simmons ?
Kmart has changed teams more often than Eve Adams.

Demare Carroll is an upgrade over Terrence Ross at SF. A huge upgrade. He was brought in to play perimeter defense against the best wings in the game of which there are several in our conference... LBJ/Jimmy Butler/Carmelo/Paul George are the guys Carroll will draw. Putting Ross on those guys has failed miserably.... He will fit. Man Defense is a very transferable skill from team to team.

[Snooch]

You once again change the discussion point. You were questioning the "fit" of players once they switched teams and intimated they regress. You used Hedo as an example. Hedo did regress but he hit the wall after that one run in Orlando. He sucked here and pretty much sucked anywhere after.
So guys who switched teams and didn't regress were names like Harden and Igudola and Diaw.
Can't remember far enough back to know if Jalew Rose was better or worse than he was when he got here or when he went to the Knicks. Peja was an expiring and a salary dump. He never played in the NBA after Toronto.
Who are Hughes and Simmons ?
Kmart has changed teams more often than Eve Adams.

Demare Carroll is an upgrade over Terrence Ross at SF. A huge upgrade. He was brought in to play perimeter defense against the best wings in the game of which there are several in our conference... LBJ/Jimmy Butler/Carmelo/Paul George are the guys Carroll will draw. Putting Ross on those guys has failed miserably.... He will fit. Man Defense is a very transferable skill from team to team.

Larry Hughes and Bobby Simmons, but I did nothing to change the discussion point, you used Harden as an example against my previous point and challenged me to find more people who fell off after changing teams.

Hedo would have maintained a similar level of play if he didnt leave orlando, he neede Dwight to cover his defense and to draw defender away from him to give him space, he benefited from Dwight in every aspect of his game

And yes, Carroll is a huge upgrade, but I want to point out that the chances of his play level declining are equally as viable as his play level maintaining or improving.

Our system is nothing like Atlantas, and I think the alot of Carrols success came from the system, similar to what alot of people feel about guys like Thompson and green for example.

[Demographic Shift]

So much change on east rosters, This is so much harder then in other years. I have a hard time figuring out where the raptors will end up. I'll just give tiers, because i might has well just flip a coin for seeding.


Raptors: Changed their philosophy but kept the coach ????

.

First...Like the overall post ...

Just to flip your question around... how about they kept their philosophy on defense but brought in players who could execute on it as drawn up by the coach...

[Primer]

For every stiff there are guys who change teams and it works out.. well.. pretty damn well

How about Harden leaving OKC and now in Houston
Igudola leaving Denver and landing in Golden State
Boris Diaw after being bought out ...running not walking out of Charlotte.... to the Spurs

but for sure Hedo lands in the remove your appendix with a rusty razor blade mistake category...
same with Amare in Knickland..
Carmelo in Knickland...
Barganini in Knickland...
sensing a pattern here with the Knicks.

Ok, I'll look at these guys 1 by 1 to see if they really regressed when they changed teams:

Hedo:
He was actually in decline in Orlando, with a very significant drop in play from 07'-08' to 08-09', before the Raps signed him for the 09'-10' season. Hard to argue it was a change in system when he was rapidly declining in his existing system before the trade. His decline just continued in Toronto and elsewhere once we dealt him. Basically he peaked as a player in 07'-08' and started a precipitous fall after that.

Amare:
I guess most people forget just how good Amare was on the Knicks before the Melo deal. Amare was better his first year as a Knick than he was the season before with Phoenix, so an improvement by changing systems, not a decline. He scored more, he nearly tripled his assist numbers, he nearly doubled his blocks, while maintaining his rebounding. His PER was identical his first year in NY to his last year in Phoenix. So, another failed example of a player declining due to change in system.

Melo:
Melo's stats were essentially identical in Denver and then NY in the season he was traded. No decline by changing systems. All of his advanced stats actually showed a slight uptick, so you could argue he improved by changing systems.

Bargs:
Bargs was significantly better as a Knick than he was the prior season with the Raptors. Once again, an improvement by changing systems, not a decline.

I stand by my statement than there aren't any notable players who declined a bunch when changing teams because of the different system. Carroll is going to fucking kill it here and you guys will all love him. I fully expect his best season of his career.

[raptors999]

Ok, I'll look at these guys 1 by 1 to see if they really regressed when they changed teams:

Hedo:
He was actually in decline in Orlando, with a very significant drop in play from 07'-08' to 08-09', before the Raps signed him for the 09'-10' season. Hard to argue it was a change in system when he was rapidly declining in his existing system before the trade. His decline just continued in Toronto and elsewhere once we dealt him. Basically he peaked as a player in 07'-08' and started a precipitous fall after that.

Amare:
I guess most people forget just how good Amare was on the Knicks before the Melo deal. Amare was better his first year as a Knick than he was the season before with Phoenix, so an improvement by changing systems, not a decline. He scored more, he nearly tripled his assist numbers, he nearly doubled his blocks, while maintaining his rebounding. His PER was identical his first year in NY to his last year in Phoenix. So, another failed example of a player declining due to change in system.

Melo:
Melo's stats were essentially identical in Denver and then NY in the season he was traded. No decline by changing systems. All of his advanced stats actually showed a slight uptick, so you could argue he improved by changing systems.

Bargs:
Bargs was significantly better as a Knick than he was the prior season with the Raptors. Once again, an improvement by changing systems, not a decline.

I stand by my statement than there aren't any notable players who declined a bunch when changing teams because of the different system. Carroll is going to fucking kill it here and you guys will all love him. I fully expect his best season of his career.

hedo was just awful in toronto
bargs improved leaving toronto
lou and gv became one dimensional
2pats just stands on the three point line now
changing systems isnt as important than the system itself

[psrs1]

So much change on east rosters, This is so much harder then in other years. I have a hard time figuring out where the raptors will end up. I'll just give tiers, because i might has well just flip a coin for seeding.

Tier 1: stays on top
Cleveland
Atlanta: They will 100% regress, when you get 60 wins and loose a starter you can only go down, but they are the only ones i see as a lock to be top 4 still besides cleveland. They'll miss carroll but they'll manage.

Tier 2: Have improved
Miami: If healthy they have a great starting five. But its a long season lots of new parts to integrate. Dragic & Bosh still have never played together. They'll be average most of the season, but they'll get a stretch where everyone is healthy where they'll get hot and that will carry them in the top 4 by season's end.

Hornets: On paper they have improved, but they improve on Paper every single season, & for some reason it just never works out. They could make the playoffs as low seed or get a top 5 pick. Just flip a coin.

Boston: I'm not as high on Boston as read from the analysts who think they are on a path to greatness. But at least it seems Danny Ainge as Finnally made up his mind. The last two seasons they've been wavering on to Tank or not to Tank and it showed. They looked like they wanted to tank but Brad Stevens told them FU. Now they signed to Amir, they look like they want to make the playoffs & might stop trading starters mid-season.

Tier 3: Might take a step Back to be better later
Chicago: Changed Coach
Bucks: Lost their veterans for greg monroe
Raptors: Changed their philosophy but kept the coach ????

Those teams have the majority of their teams back, but are going to have to do some major Changes during training camp. Predicting how to works out is just guess work.

Tier 4: Did nothing or nothing important
Washington: I just don't see where their improvements are gonna come from. They'll look like they regressed just by staying the same.
Brooklyn: Still 3 more years of regretting trading every first rounders for overpaid players.
NY: Has much as the media tries to glorify their FA signings. They were shit before Melo got injured, & before they gave away their players. Knicks are still nowhere near the playoffs (HURRAY FOR US)
Indiana: Paul George & ......... No David west, No hibbert, No stephenson. Stop living in the past its rebuild time.
Detroit: Coach's shouldn't be GMs & their own boss.
Orlando: Keep drafting
Philly: Keep tanking to draft a 5th big man. Then maybe they'll have the counter to small-ball, 4 Centers on the floor with Saric as point guard. 73-9 in 2 years BOOK IT.

Pistons could be a 7 or 8 seed this year. Don't underestimate the brilliance of SVG.

[Demographic Shift]

Larry Hughes and Bobby Simmons, but I did nothing to change the discussion point, you used Harden as an example against my previous point and challenged me to find more people who fell off after changing teams.

Fair enough.. never heard of those guys so can't say if they got worse as a result of them changing teams. Will take you at your word they did.

Hedo would have maintained a similar level of play if he didnt leave orlando, he neede Dwight to cover his defense and to draw defender away from him to give him space, he benefited from Dwight in every aspect of his game

So its not so much of Hedo regressing by leaving Orlando but more about him or anyone else being the beneficary of Dwight Howards dominance while he was in Orlando.

And yes, Carroll is a huge upgrade, but I want to point out that the chances of his play level declining are equally as viable as his play level maintaining or improving.

Predicting the future is a pretty tough business to be in. Know one knows right now how Carroll will fare with us this coming year definatively . We do know that it takes single minded dedication and hard work to play defense in pretty much any sport. Its a skill that DC has and that it will transfer with him. And again he is a HUGE upgrade over Ross at the SF.

Our system is nothing like Atlantas, and I think the alot of Carrols success came from the system, similar to what alot of people feel about guys like Thompson and green for example.

No idea on how he will fare with his 3pt shooting this year but the Raps will run plays in our "system" to get him open look 3's much like they did for Ross for the past couple of years. The hope is that he will keep making them like he did in Atlanta.

[Demographic Shift]

Ok, I'll look at these guys 1 by 1 to see if they really regressed when they changed teams:

Hedo:
He was actually in decline in Orlando, with a very significant drop in play from 07'-08' to 08-09', before the Raps signed him for the 09'-10' season. Hard to argue it was a change in system when he was rapidly declining in his existing system before the trade. His decline just continued in Toronto and elsewhere once we dealt him. Basically he peaked as a player in 07'-08' and started a precipitous fall after that.

Amare:
I guess most people forget just how good Amare was on the Knicks before the Melo deal. Amare was better his first year as a Knick than he was the season before with Phoenix, so an improvement by changing systems, not a decline. He scored more, he nearly tripled his assist numbers, he nearly doubled his blocks, while maintaining his rebounding. His PER was identical his first year in NY to his last year in Phoenix. So, another failed example of a player declining due to change in system.

Melo:
Melo's stats were essentially identical in Denver and then NY in the season he was traded. No decline by changing systems. All of his advanced stats actually showed a slight uptick, so you could argue he improved by changing systems.

Bargs:
Bargs was significantly better as a Knick than he was the prior season with the Raptors. Once again, an improvement by changing systems, not a decline.

I stand by my statement than there aren't any notable players who declined a bunch when changing teams because of the different system. Carroll is going to fucking kill it here and you guys will all love him. I fully expect his best season of his career.

The guys on the Knicks were tongue in cheek examples. Its me being me but I just love watching the Knicks struggle and suck. They are the gold standard of how knee jerk reactions inevitably go bad. Yet they do it year after year.

I hope Carroll does it kill it here. Barring injury there is no reason to think he will not succeed. He has worked his arse off to get where he is today. He has a work ethic and an overall on court focus that I would love to see rub off on guys like Ross and Bebe and Bruno. He must have a solid character component as Ujiri values that in players as much as their skill sets.

I have posted this elsewhere on this thread but this guy is a just a HUGE effing upgrade over Ross at the SF slot. He was brought in to play perimeter defense against the best wings in the game of which there are several in our conference... LBJ/Jimmy Butler/Carmelo/Paul George are the guys Carroll will draw. Putting Ross on those guys has failed miserably.... He will fit. Man Defense is a very transferable skill from team to team and he is bringing it.

[Wild-ling#1]

Ok, I'll look at these guys 1 by 1 to see if they really regressed when they changed teams:

Hedo:
He was actually in decline in Orlando ...

Bargs was significantly better as a Knick than he was the prior season with the Raptors. Once again, an improvement by changing systems, not a decline.

I stand by my statement than there aren't any notable players who declined a bunch when changing teams because of the different system. Carroll is going to fucking kill it here and you guys will all love him. I fully expect his best season of his career.

Thanks for putting in the work.

I loved Demarre's introduction to the fan-base. Everybody assumes the motivating influence of a "contract year". I'll be happy with similar production, while hoping he'll help his (talented) teammates be better. But I'm also prepared to enjoy the extension of this veteran's "coming out" party.

Because he'll earn it. And because - like a Bautista or Encarnacion - you know he'll "get" it. I love those kinda' guys

[Wild-ling#1]

hedo was just awful in toronto
bargs improved leaving toronto
lou and gv became one dimensional
2pats just stands on the three point line now
changing systems isnt as important than the system itself

Scola seems like such a calm, ready, cerebral and fun dude. Anyone think that, with Amir gone, 2Pats will be re-energized ... and may enjoy the challenges and opportunities the new-look Raptors might afford him?

[Primer]

Scola seems like such a calm, ready, cerebral and fun dude. Anyone think that, with Amir gone, 2Pats will be re-energized ... and may enjoy the challenges and opportunities the new-look Raptors might afford him?

Patterson is going to be starting for a solid playoff team, an opportunity he's never had but I'm sure he relishes. I expect Patterson to have his best season ever. This is his chance to prove to the Raptors that they don't need to go looking for their future starting PF because he is already on the roster.