Looking Ahead: 2016 Free Agency

[Katman]

I know this is premature and will definitely spawn trade DD discussion, Bobby Marks did a great article worth reading about next summer's free agency.

The summer of 2016 is gearing up to be a very interesting one… but not for the reason most NBA fans are thinking.

There has been lots of talk and excitement about the vastly increased salary cap numbers that will come from the new TV deal. Early projections anticipate the current salary cap of $70 million to jump to $89 million for the 2016-17 season. There is the potential for 24 out of 30 teams looking to have an estimated $825 million in cap space. Many fans are wide-eyed by the idea of their favorite team having “lots of cap space” for the summer of 2016. After all, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are free agents next year.

Yet when you look closer… Beyond these two All-Stars, what is the talent level available? Will there be enough true talent for teams to spend at least $81 million?

That is the number teams need to spend to hit the minimum 90 percent of the salary cap. Will the summer of 2016 be the year of one-year contracts because of the lack of overall talent and depth?

Key players who will be vying for this pot other than the above mentioned superstars are Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan (player option), Al Horford and Dwight Howard (PO). Yes, they are all genuine NBA stars, but can you make the argument that they are worth the potential max salary they could be paid?

Great read, there's more

http://hoopshype.com/2015/07/19/the-...e-agency-2016/

[Scraptor]

One more reason free agency is such a tough way to build your team these days. Very hard to find fairly valued assets on the open market, let alone undervalued ones.

[BS10]

I like T. Jones or Montiejunas from Houston as replacements at our PF spot. They're both RFA. It's unlikely Houston pays for both of them so we can easily steal one or their guys since they're both RFA. I think someone else said this on the forums but i've been advocating to stealing one of them for a while now.

I also like Harrison Barnes or Courtney Lee as possible replacements at the 2 if DD decides to walk (although still unlikely to me). Barnes is a RFA and Lee is a UFA. I know Barnes is a 3 but if we play as a 2 I think he could exploit the defensive mismatches on the offensive end. I like Lee cause he's defensive and can shoot the 3 ball pretty consistently.

However, I think Masai just re-signs Ross, Jonas, DD and JJ and calls it a day. If any one of them aren't already dealt before the trade deadline. As well as signing whoever the lucky draft pick we get with our Den/NYK pick.

[Hotshot]

We going to use Carroll as a recruiting agent to convince Al Horford to sign with the Raptors as our starting PF.

[Katman]

The important part of the article isn't who the free agents are but the ridiculously stupid money they will get paid. Especially the mid tier talent because of the $80M minimum.

[mcHAPPY]

The important part of the article isn't who the free agents are but the ridiculously stupid money they will get paid. Especially the mid tier talent because of the $80M minimum.

As Zach Lowe said, 3rd bananas gonna get paid.

[vino]

As Zach Lowe said, 3rd bananas gonna get paid.

and this is why we need to get rid of DD before the trade deadline.

[Partfoop]

It'll really underscore how fair that Carroll deal is once bottom-feeders are earning $10 million just to meet cap minimums.

[slamdunk23]

Next free agency is going to have massive implications for the raps. With Val being a restricted FA with a relatively small cap hold, we could sign a 20mm+ PF (preferably horford), resign DD for around 20mm a year (I know many of you don't want to bring him back but the 2016 FA class is really weak and he is the only other realistic 20mm player we can get) & still be able to resign Val using his bird rights (presumably 18mm+ looking at what kanter got). We would also have to dump 2Pat but he would become expendable if we can get a player of horford ability.

If we don't use our cap space next summer we lose the huge opportunity of Val's smaller cap hold as he will presumably have a large cap heading into 2017 FA that will limit our ability to sign an attractive free agent.

[mcHAPPY]

Next free agency is going to have massive implications for the raps. With Val being a restricted FA with a relatively small cap hold, we could sign a 20mm+ PF (preferably horford), resign DD for around 20mm a year (I know many of you don't want to bring him back but the 2016 FA class is really weak and he is the only other realistic 20mm player we can get) & still be able to resign Val using his bird rights (presumably 18mm+ looking at what kanter got). We would also have to dump 2Pat but he would become expendable if we can get a player of horford ability.

If we don't use our cap space next summer we lose the huge opportunity of Val's smaller cap hold as he will presumably have a large cap heading into 2017 FA that will limit our ability to sign an attractive free agent.

No, they can't.

This has been discussed in numerous other places... Check the salary cap thread in stickies for DanH breakdown.

[BobLoblaw]

But that's boring, it's more fun to think that we will sign someone. It's feasible, we'd have to dump some role players.

Al Horford, I don't think so, I think Atlanta will just give him a 5 year max at 150 mil if he stays healthy.

But maybe someone at around 15-20ish mil. Maybe Gallinari or offer sheet to Motiejunas (he's restricted). Assuming they are healthy.

1 scenario, don't extend Jonas yet, dump Ross and 2pat next summer, that should put us at around 74 mil including DeMar's cap hold. Cap was projected 89 but NBA is conservative with those estimations, 95 is probably closer to real cap a year from now.

So we could have about 20 mil to work with in this scenario and lose just Ross and 2pat.

Parsons would also be interesting for this team, John Henson too (restricted). (I'm not really holding my breath, but fun options)

[DanH]

Next free agency is going to have massive implications for the raps. With Val being a restricted FA with a relatively small cap hold, we could sign a 20mm+ PF (preferably horford), resign DD for around 20mm a year (I know many of you don't want to bring him back but the 2016 FA class is really weak and he is the only other realistic 20mm player we can get) & still be able to resign Val using his bird rights (presumably 18mm+ looking at what kanter got). We would also have to dump 2Pat but he would become expendable if we can get a player of horford ability.

If we don't use our cap space next summer we lose the huge opportunity of Val's smaller cap hold as he will presumably have a large cap heading into 2017 FA that will limit our ability to sign an attractive free agent.

Here's the choice right now. Next summer, let everyone except JV walk (Ross, DD, Scola, JJ) and you'll have enough cap room for one max offer.

Or keep DD and you'll have room for a 10M dollar player. Which is peanuts next summer.

Or keep Ross too and you'll have practically no room. If you keep just Ross and let DD walk, you'd have about 17M to offer, again meaning you can be outbid by 20 teams, but you might be able to get an OK player with that.

[ezz_bee]

Next off season is going to be really interesting, and I have a number of thoughts, but most importantly

1) An overpay is an overpay no matter how you look at it. Don't do it. Cap space, despite the jump, is finite, a team that does multiple overpays on 3+year contracts will find itself in a world of pain 3-4 years down the road. IF you have to overpay to meet the salary floor than overpay on 1 year deals with a second year team option.

2) Getting to the Salary floor may be difficult for some teams, but it won't be an issue for the raptors. We have 45 million Guaranteed to 9 players, with Derozan, JV and Ross (and James Johnson if you want to count him) as free agents. Assume Ross walks (and JJ), and JV gets the max 22.5/year and we already at 67.5 mil (12.5 mil we have to spend) with 6 roster spots open. Vets on 1 year minimums will only have .98 mil count against the cap so basically we can get 4 vets for 3.9 million, so we have to find one player to pay 8.6 mil to hit the floor, which is just under 10% of the cap, basically a Patterson-esque deal . And that's assuming we let derozan walk and not engage in any sign and trades. If both Derozan and JV both get the max, we are looking at 94.5 mil with 11 players under contract. Sign Derozan and JV for 15 mil/year each (below market for both players, imo) and we are at 70 mil with 5 spots left. The only way the raps come even close to worried about the salary floor is if Demar doesn't exercise his player option and Ross and JV take their QO. In this scenario (which is about as close to a 0% as possible) we are at 66 mil with 3 spots open. But in that scenario you've got 14-20m to spend on a marquee free agent, basically another Carroll deal. Even if you end up overpaying, a really solid contributor at that amount, you've probably got enough talent to get to the Eastern Conference Finals.

This can also be mitigated by front-loading contracts. Let's say you agree to give someone four years 75mill contract, instead of going 18.75 every year you can go 20.8 19.4 18.0 16.8, that's an extra 3 mill towards the cap in year one. Do that with any new non-max multi year deals and it'll be relatively easy to hit the floor, and remain flexible over the next few years until the new CBA and TV deals stabilize.

3) The issue for the Raptors will be can they convince BOTH Derozan and JV to sign for less than max money? If you can't JV's max (25% of cap) is cheaper than Derozans (30% of cap). IF derozan and JV are unwilling to settle for less than the max, and are retained then at that point we're in danger of becoming the mid 2000 Hawks, not enough talent for deep playoff runs and no flexibility to improve the roster.

4) The only way to find max level room for another teams free agent would be to shed Joseph's or Patterson's contract with nothing coming back, or Lowry with only 6 mill coming back (mid season trade for expirings). Then sign Derozan and JV afterwards, but that path probably incurs some serious taxes.

DanH can you confirm that Derozan's Cap Hold next off season is $15,075,000 (150%, of his last year's salary)?

[Katman]

Dan, does the MLE move significantly next year or is that locked in by the CBA?

[DanH]

DeRozan's cap hold will depend on what his exact salary is this year, which won't be known until the end of the season because of his incentives. But for now your number looks about right as a worst case assumption.

MLE is locked in, as are rookie scale deals and minimum salaries. Only max salary moves with the cap (as well as some cap holds).