Article: Ujiri Resting Heavily On Maintaining The Status Quo

[Scraptor]

Are people still on about this? It's free agency. Guys get paid premiums. He was an unrestricted who was the best SF available (all the other guys were re-signing or RFAs). He was getting a premium. If you aren't willing to pay a premium then you won't be in on certain guys. Now, if a guy is getting $15 million a year and you could have signed him for $5 million, that's a terrible deal but quibbling over a difference of $1-3 million a year is ridiculous. It's peanuts to MLSE and if the Raps' management can't find a way to massage an extra couple million or so in cap space if they need it, then the organization has far bigger problems than the Carroll contract.

This is the kind of relativism that gets GMs into trouble.

The standard we set for signings shouldn't be, did we overpay a little compared to what other guys were getting or what other teams were offering?

The standard should be, did we pay him what he is worth?

Is a role player worth around 17% of the cap over the next four years? Because on average that is what his contract works out to. That's just under $11mm/year in 2014-15 terms.

If we're going to play the moneyball style of building from the middle a la Morey and the Rockets you can't engage in relative valuations, you have to find absolute value where you can.

We had this discussion repeatedly during the BC era, because that was how BC justified a lot of his signings, that it was just a few million dollars of an overpay. But you stack up enough of those overpays and before you know it you've squeezed out enough cap room to limit your options.

If DeMar gets $20mm/year, you could be looking at nearly 50% of the cap in 2016-17 being used up by Cory Joseph, DeMar DeRozan, and DeMarre Carroll.

It's not ridiculous to exercise a little bit of skepticism.

[OldSkoolCool]

Every time I read the title of this thread "maintaining the status quo", I think that is the last thing I want

The status quo last year was to give our guards and coach free reign to make stupid decisions...uuughh

[raptors999]

BC overpayed because he signed guys who really didn't fit or filled a hole. Demarre fills a big wing hole and the extra to get him on the roster is worth it just like CoJo solidify the second guard spot. If MU brought back Lou it would be an overpay even though he cost half DC contract because there is no need for a small scoring SG

[slaw]

This is the kind of relativism that gets GMs into trouble.

The standard we set for signings shouldn't be, did we overpay a little compared to what other guys were getting or what other teams were offering?

The standard should be, did we pay him what he is worth?

Is a role player worth around 17% of the cap over the next four years? Because on average that is what his contract works out to. That's just under $11mm/year in 2014-15 terms.

If we're going to play the moneyball style of building from the middle a la Morey and the Rockets you can't engage in relative valuations, you have to find absolute value where you can.

We had this discussion repeatedly during the BC era, because that was how BC justified a lot of his signings, that it was just a few million dollars of an overpay. But you stack up enough of those overpays and before you know it you've squeezed out enough cap room to limit your options.

If DeMar gets $20mm/year, you could be looking at nearly 50% of the cap in 2016-17 being used up by Cory Joseph, DeMar DeRozan, and DeMarre Carroll.

It's not ridiculous to exercise a little bit of skepticism.

A few comments.

Again, free agents come at a premium. If a team doesn't want to pay the premium then that is a legitimate position to take but that team needs to be prepared to be a non-factor in free agency.

As for value, I have no idea how you determine the absolute value of a player. I would not even begin to guess where you start such an undertaking (how much money they generate for the organization?) but if you are able to put forth a predictive, absolute valuation model for pro athletes I suspect you could be worth about $10,000,000 (or likely way more) by the end of the year.

I don't know what "moneyball style" means and I don't know why you think Raptors management is adhering the that "theory". If you simply mean that they should be looking to exploit market inefficiencies then I am confident they are trying to do that - just like everyone else.

As for BC, the issue with his free agent deals was that they were given to largely or completely unproductive players (e.g. Kleiza, Fields, Kapono) who had little to no value inside or outside the organization.

As for future cap pressure, I'll repeat: if the paying Demare Carroll an extra $1-3 million a year ties management's hands going forward then the Raptors have way, way bigger issues in management than a single free agent contract.

[Snooch]

..

As for future cap pressure, I'll repeat: if the paying Demare Carroll an extra $1-3 million a year ties management's hands going forward then the Raptors have way, way bigger issues in management than a single free agent contract.

1-3 million on one players isnt a problem, but if it is a continuing trend that involves 3 or 4 players, then it becomes a MAJOR problem.

[slaw]

1-3 million on one players isnt a problem, but if it is a continuing trend that involves 3 or 4 players, then it becomes a MAJOR problem.

Maybe. Maybe not. Context matters. The status quo isn't infinite and the roster isn't static. Overpaying a few guys isn't a big deal if you're saving money elsewhere with cheaper rookie deals and second rounders. Now, I do agree that if your modus operandi is constantly filling out your roster with third rate free agents a la Bryan Colangelo, then you risk creating a structural problem but no one is suggesting that is the current - or preferred - model.

[Snooch]

Maybe. Maybe not. Context matters. The status quo isn't infinite and the roster isn't static. Overpaying a few guys isn't a big deal if you're saving money elsewhere with cheaper rookie deals and second rounders. Now, I do agree that if your modus operandi is constantly filling out your roster with third rate free agents a la Bryan Colangelo, then you risk creating a structural problem but no one is suggesting that is the current - or preferred - model.

I agree, I am all for shrewd cap management, and I do not think for one second that the DC deal is any sort of an overpay.