DeMar DeRozan: PER Over/Under & What if...

[Primer]

I know that Kobe's 45% career FG percentage takes into account his 33% 3-point percentage, but it serves as a reminder that great scorers don't always shoot great percentages (from the field). Free throws - the ability to get them and make them - have a ton of value.

That's why I like TS%, because it takes all that into account (3pt, FT). .530 is the NBA average TS%. Kobe's career TS% is .553, so he was scoring at a well above average efficiency. Derozan only had an above average TS% his rookie year when he wasn't asked to do much. In 2013-14 he had a .532 TS%, so he's pretty damn good if he can just get to league average efficiency. When you can volume score at above league average efficiency is when you get to elite status. For example, Harden has an insane .607 career TS%. All the top wings have above average TS%, it's my main gripe with Derozan and what's keeping him from being a top wing.

[SkywalkerAC]

That's why I like TS%, because it takes all that into account (3pt, FT). .530 is the NBA average TS%. Kobe's career TS% is .553, so he was scoring at a well above average efficiency. Derozan only had an above average TS% his rookie year when he wasn't asked to do much. In 2013-14 he had a .532 TS%, so he's pretty damn good if he can just get to league average efficiency. When you can volume score at above league average efficiency is when you get to elite status. For example, Harden has an insane .607 career TS%. All the top wings have above average TS%, it's my main gripe with Derozan and what's keeping him from being a top wing.

Good point. I know that DeMar getting up to 33-34% from 3 won't automatically give him a great (or even league-average) TS%, but it certainly wouldn't hurt.

[golden]

I know that Kobe's 45% career FG percentage takes into account his 33% 3-point percentage, but it serves as a reminder that great scorers don't always shoot great percentages (from the field). Free throws - the ability to get them and make them - have a ton of value.

Yep. If not for free throws, DeMar would be getting a ton of hate around here. *pink font*. lol. That's why I tend to look more at ORTG (> 110) and USG (> 25), as the minimum threshold for "elite", which DD surpassed once. He has it in him.

And if not for his HoF and All-Star teammates, Kobe might have a legacy similar to AI, Jerry Stackhouse, etc..., but that's another debate for another day.....

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Good point. I know that DeMar getting up to 33-34% from 3 won't automatically give him a great (or even league-average) TS%, but it certainly wouldn't hurt.

I get the impression that most people don't even care what his shooting % are, or what his advanced stats are, when it comes to evaluating his game and impact. The bottom line is that he needs to better play within a team-oriented offensive system, without forcing shots, while making decisions that result in better/higher % shots being made by the team (whether by him or by another player).

Most criticism comes when he plays selfish basketball and forces up bad (ie: contested, low %, inefficient) shots, which are done so in defiance of common basketball analytics and his own personal shot chart. When he laughs off insinuation of poor decision making and/or forced shots, saying stuff like "I prefer long 2's to 3's" and "I prefer shots with a hand in my face", it only compounds the problem of his perceived low BB-IQ (or blatant selfishness).

DD just needs to play a team game, consistently.

[SkywalkerAC]

Yep. If not for free throws, DeMar would be getting a ton of hate around here. *pink font*. lol. That's why I tend to look more at ORTG (> 110) and USG (> 25), as the minimum threshold for "elite", which DD surpassed once. He has it in him.

And if not for his HoF and All-Star teammates, Kobe might have a legacy similar to AI, Jerry Stackhouse, etc..., but that's another debate for another day.....

I somehow wasn't aware that shooting percentages had such a direct relationship to ORtng. Don't some team-Ortg take pace into account, and some individual ones take on-off into account? Can't believe I'm still so murky on some metrics.

[SkywalkerAC]

I get the impression that most people don't even care what his shooting % are, or what his advanced stats are, when it comes to evaluating his game and impact. The bottom line is that he needs to better play within a team-oriented offensive system, without forcing shots, while making decisions that result in better/higher % shots being made by the team (whether by him or by another player).

Most criticism comes when he plays selfish basketball and forces up bad (ie: contested, low %, inefficient) shots, which are done so in defiance of common basketball analytics and his own personal shot chart. When he laughs off insinuation of poor decision making and/or forced shots, saying stuff like "I prefer long 2's to 3's" and "I prefer shots with a hand in my face", it only compounds the problem of his perceived low BB-IQ (or blatant selfishness).

DD just needs to play a team game, consistently.

Right, but coaching plays its part there as well. We know, pretty conclusively, that this team was coached to bias getting their own shot/drawing the foul rather than risking the pass. It's a big reason why JV's assists were so low, why GV's assists dropped and could be counted on to lob the floater instead of the oop, etc. And that strategy worked...for a time.

Now it's time for everyone to adjust - Casey, DeMar, JV, everyone. And I'm pretty confident they can - resulting in 50+ wins.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Right, but coaching plays its part there as well. We know, pretty conclusively, that this team was coached to bias getting their own shot/drawing the foul rather than risking the pass. It's a big reason why JV's assists were so low, why GV's assists dropped and could be counted on to lob the floater instead of the oop, etc. And that strategy worked...for a time.

Now it's time for everyone to adjust - Casey, DeMar, JV, everyone. And I'm pretty confident they can - resulting in 50+ wins.

I agree that DC's offensive game-plan was a part of it. However, I would argue that DC's strategy only served to magnify an existing problem, rather than causing an entirely new one. DeRozan's style of play has never really changed, and his quotes that I paraphrased would seem to say that he's happy/comfortable playing that style of offense, where he gets to be 'the man'.

The other frustrating thing is that DeRozan has shown signs of being able to be a fantastic team player. There were 2-3 games last season (one at home against the Clippers stands out) when his shot wasn't falling, so he became a facilitator and contributed in other ways (rebounds & defense). Unfortunately, I can probably count those types of games on one hand, throughout the course of his entire career.

There's definitely blame to go around, but with a more talented supporting cast and rumors that he'll be demanding $20M+ next offseason, it's hard to get past the common criticisms. There wouldn't be so much harping (hating?) on those facets of his game, if not for his contract status and likely demands.

[MACK11]

What kind of stats would DD out up for everyone here to justify paying him 20+ mil?

Just curious

For me

It's 24-5-5 with above average defense and 35%+ from 3

[MACK11]

For me

It's 24-5-5 with above average defense and 35%+ from 3

I forgot the add at least 45% from the field and no more absurd long twos

[A.I]

I forgot the add at least 45% from the field and no more absurd long twos

Sadly the long twos will probably continue, its pretty much a part of his game.

[DanH]

I somehow wasn't aware that shooting percentages had such a direct relationship to ORtng. Don't some team-Ortg take pace into account, and some individual ones take on-off into account? Can't believe I'm still so murky on some metrics.

There are essentially only two versions of the ORTG and DRTG stats for an individual. Basketball reference reports individual ORTG and DRTG - points scored per individual possession used. So, FGA's, a fraction of FTA's (average is 44% due to and-ones), and turnovers are possessions used. Points are obvious. Same goes for defence - literally just what the player's opponent is managing to score in their possessions matched up with him.

NBA.com instead reports ORTG and DRTG as on-court ratings - ie how your team does while you are on the floor. Again, in terms of points scored (or allowed) per possession.

Both are pace-isolated as they are possession dependent.

Anyway, individual ORTG, which is what is being suggested as a measure of efficiency, is very similar to TS% - except that it includes turnovers as a "shot attempt" as well.

There is one other aspect to individual ORTG (offensive rebounding - essentially adding a possession to your team instead of using one up), which breaks off from the correlation to shooting percentages. But for wings and guards the number of offensive rebounds tends to be low enough that it is a very small factor in ORTG.

[SkywalkerAC]

There are essentially only two versions of the ORTG and DRTG stats for an individual. Basketball reference reports individual ORTG and DRTG - points scored per individual possession used. So, FGA's, a fraction of FTA's (average is 44% due to and-ones), and turnovers are possessions used. Points are obvious. Same goes for defence - literally just what the player's opponent is managing to score in their possessions matched up with him.

NBA.com instead reports ORTG and DRTG as on-court ratings - ie how your team does while you are on the floor. Again, in terms of points scored (or allowed) per possession.

Both are pace-isolated as they are possession dependent.

Anyway, individual ORTG, which is what is being suggested as a measure of efficiency, is very similar to TS% - except that it includes turnovers as a "shot attempt" as well.

There is one other aspect to individual ORTG (offensive rebounding - essentially adding a possession to your team instead of using one up), which breaks off from the correlation to shooting percentages. But for wings and guards the number of offensive rebounds tends to be low enough that it is a very small factor in ORTG.

I think I'm hearing that TS% is the better stat to do the calculation above then.

[OldSkoolCool]

For me

It's 24-5-5 with above average defense and 35%+ from 3

I forgot the add at least 45% from the field and no more absurd long twos

Soooooo, essentially if he somehow completely changed the style of basketball he plays and is a good three point shot

Which means, not DD, because that's not happening

[Mindlessness]

For me

It's 24-5-5 with above average defense and 35%+ from 3

For me, I would want DeMar to be a lot more well-rounded rather than a scorer. It would be more along the lines of 18-6.5-6 with above average defense and a 55%+ TS%. On offense, as long as he's simply attacking the rim (through PnR, PnP, whatever really), facilitating, taking corner 3s, and taking open mid-range jumpers off screens, pindowns, etc in that order of priority. I'm fine.

I wouldn't pay $20M for that, but it would be good enough for me to be OK with it.

[golden]

I think I'm hearing that TS% is the better stat to do the calculation above then.

Sure, you could substitute TS% for ORTG. Not sure where the elite cut-off would be, but I'd guess somewhere like TS% >0.52 in combination with USG% > 25 & MP > 2000.

Have a look at this list, using the above criteria on the last 10 NBA seasons. Pretty much all the elite scorers and some guys who had "one-hit wonder" seasons. It passes the smell test, for the most part.

http://bkref.com/tiny/iN99i