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DeMar DeRozan: PER Over/Under & What if...

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  • #91
    golden wrote: View Post
    Sure, you could substitute TS% for ORTG. Not sure where the elite cut-off would be, but I'd guess somewhere like TS% >0.52 in combination with USG% > 25 & MP > 2000.

    Have a look at this list, using the above criteria on the last 10 NBA seasons. Pretty much all the elite scorers and some guys who had "one-hit wonder" seasons. It passes the smell test, for the most part.

    http://bkref.com/tiny/iN99i
    That list has 230 players. There aren't 23 truly elite scorers every year.

    I think your TS% limit has to be a great deal higher. If you look at last year's total WS leaders, there is one player in the top 20 with a TS% below 55% - Russell Westbrook, and he carried a usage rate of 38% last year, so is clearly an exception.

    I would say, any player at 55 TS% and usage over 25% (and 1000 minutes as you suggested) would qualify.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...t=&order_by=ws

    That list yields about 15 scorers per year - in theory, enough for the leading scorer on each playoff team, roughly.
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • #92
      DanH wrote: View Post
      That list has 230 players. There aren't 23 truly elite scorers every year.

      I think your TS% limit has to be a great deal higher. If you look at last year's total WS leaders, there is one player in the top 20 with a TS% below 55% - Russell Westbrook, and he carried a usage rate of 38% last year, so is clearly an exception.

      I would say, any player at 55 TS% and usage over 25% (and 1000 minutes as you suggested) would qualify.

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/...t=&order_by=ws

      That list yields about 15 scorers per year - in theory, enough for the leading scorer on each playoff team, roughly.
      That makes the list more exclusive and less refutable, eliminating guys like DD, Paul George and Kyrie (except for last season when he had the benefit of Lebron). I've always contended that those type of guys are on the "cusp" of elite and end up being overrated by many; hence, the endless DeBates. And DD's only been "on the cusp" once.

      However, the 15 scorers per year is arbitrary, because sometimes you have elite scorers on non-playoff teams (Love, AD, even little Isaiah Thomas, who need to get their props.)

      But anyways, it's a good target. TS% > 55. USG% > 25. There's your minimum target if you want a max. contract.
      Last edited by golden; Mon Oct 5, 2015, 08:37 PM.

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      • #93
        golden wrote: View Post
        That makes the list more exclusive and less refutable, eliminating guys like DD, Paul George and Kyrie (except for last season when he had the benefit of Lebron). I've always contended that those type of guys are on the "cusp" of elite and end up being overrated by many; hence, the endless DeBates. And DD's only been "on the cusp" once.

        So that's that. TS% > 55. USG% > 25. There's your minimum target if you want a max. contract.
        I can't argue with that, in terms of scoring. I think you do need to consider other stats (rebounding, assists, defence etc) maybe with a WS total or something, but for scoring (which is obviously meant to be DD's forte) I think those thresholds work well.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • #94
          SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
          Why on earth would he set a goal of 31.5%?
          If it is such a bad a goal for him to make then why is it the bentch mark u chose? Sorry if it wasnt clear, but i was more trying to say that 31,5% is still below average. It doesn't have a real impact on how defenders play him.

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          • #95
            DeRozan should look up Drew Hanlen next summer.

            As he put it, cutting back on long twos is his top goal this preseason. “The biggest thing, man, like I’ve been preaching all summer, is just not shooting those long twos,” Beal said Monday, later adding another objective is to be named first-team all-defense.
            Beal and his trainer Drew Hanlen decided he had to cut back on the shots after evaluating film and statistics after last season. They then centered Beal’s offseason regimen on finishing around the basket and creating his shot from beyond the three-point line, including a step-back three-pointer.
            https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-on-long-twos/

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            • #96
              DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post
              If it is such a bad a goal for him to make then why is it the bentch mark u chose? Sorry if it wasnt clear, but i was more trying to say that 31,5% is still below average. It doesn't have a real impact on how defenders play him.
              Haven't you ever heard of over/under? A goal should be something like your Max. Over/under is closer to the expected outcome (not for me but for the voting populace) - so roughly the average of Max and min.

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              • #97
                SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                Haven't you ever heard of over/under? A goal should be something like your Max. Over/under is closer to the expected outcome (not for me but for the voting populace) - so roughly the average of Max and min.
                We get the over/under concept (nice thread idea, btw), but I think most people are more interested in discussing what DD should do, rather than what many expect him to do (unfortunately).

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                • #98
                  golden wrote: View Post
                  We get the over/under concept (nice thread idea, btw), but I think most people are more interested in discussing what DD should do, rather than what many expect him to do (unfortunately).
                  I expect him to be between 32 and 34. He has to be above 30, or I too and going to be somewhat pissed.

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                  • #99
                    SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                    I expect him to be between 32 and 34. He has to be above 30, or I too and going to be somewhat pissed.
                    His 3pt shooting is red hot so far this preseason.

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                    • Primer wrote: View Post
                      His 3pt shooting is red hot so far this preseason.
                      All a cunning plan to take the regular season by surprise

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                      • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                        I expect him to be between 32 and 34. He has to be above 30, or I too and going to be somewhat pissed.
                        I just don't see it. I'm sorry. He's only had one season of 30% 3-point shooting, and that was his all-star season.

                        Based on what I've seen in the game against the Clippers and the blurry videos I saw of the Warriors game, he has not improved his shot at all. He's still fading, which makes the 3-point shot harder for most player. He's also not really shooting them properly, it literally looks like he's launching/flinging them. His form is just really ugly. Plus he's inconsistent with his form.

                        We hear the same thing every year from Demar and the Raptors' coaches and FO, that Demar has been working on his 3-point shot and he's made x number of 3's and his shot is looking great. It just never translates over into the regular season.
                        Last edited by Uneducatedfan; Tue Oct 6, 2015, 10:12 PM.

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                        • Uneducatedfan wrote: View Post
                          I just don't see it. I'm sorry. He's only had one season of 30% 3-point shooting, and that was his all-star season.

                          Based on what I've seen in the game against the Clippers and the blurry videos I saw of the Warriors game, he has not improved his shot at all. He's still fading, which makes the 3-point shot harder for most player. He's also not really shooting them properly, it literally looks like he's launching/flinging them. His form is just really ugly. Plus he's inconsistent with his form.

                          We hear the same thing every year from Demar and the Raptors' coaches and FO, that Demar has been working on his 3-point shot and he's made x number of 3's and his shot is looking great. It just never translates over into the regular season.
                          It's entirely possible that he doesn't progress from his 13/14 performance from behind the arc, but assuming that at 26 years old he has already peaked as a shooter is pretty pessimistic if you ask me. Many players who were poor shooters to start their careers have broken out as shooters around DeMar's age. His form from the corners has looked pretty good for a while now, above the break might still be an issue - if that's the case his final % will come down to shot selection, including shooting fewer bailout 3s. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

                          Care to take the avatar bet for under 31.5% then? Since you don't have one and all...
                          Last edited by SkywalkerAC; Tue Oct 6, 2015, 10:31 PM.

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                          • SkywalkerAC wrote: View Post
                            It's entirely possible that he doesn't progress from his 13/14 performance from behind the arc, but assuming that at 26 years old he has already peaked as a shooter is pretty pessimistic if you ask me. Many players who were poor shooters to start their careers have broken out as shooters around DeMar's age. His form from the corners has looked pretty good for a while now, above the break might still be an issue - if that's the case his final % will come down to shot selection, including shooting fewer bailout 3s. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

                            Care to take the avatar bet for under 31.5% then? Since you don't have one and all...
                            Even if he shoots 32% on 3s, he isn't a good 3 point shooter, and teams won't adjust to play him differently, especially since he probably won't shoot many 3s. I agree that he will need to take fewer contested long twos. To do this he should dribble less. He seems to dribble himself into a bad shot too often. I want our offense to emphasize quick decisions so that he doesn't cause issues for himself, but as we have seen with JV, some of our players aren't great at making quick decisions.

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                            • DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post
                              ...but as we have seen with JV, some of our players aren't great at making quick decisions.
                              Don't know about game two but at least in game 1 they were apparently trying to get him used to getting the ball so he could practice making quicker decisions. And I thought he was a little quicker off the mark.

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                              • Primer wrote: View Post
                                His 3pt shooting is red hot so far this preseason.
                                Too bad he can't shoot his preseason overall fg% as his 3pt percentage.

                                35% - hot damn.

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