New York Knicks and Denver loss tracker for 2016 Lottery Pick surprise (thanks, Masai)

[octothorp]

A slight downside to NYK seeming to start to fall apart now is that from Denver's perspective, they might be looking at this and thinking, 'hey, they're going to get us a really high pick, so we're going to swap picks anyway; might as well try to win as much as possible for the rest of the season, including making trades that improve us both short and long-term, and certainly not trade away to tank further.'

My ideal scenario would be NYK looking good up until the trade deadline (so that Denver decides they need to keep tanking themselves), and then the Knicks falling apart immediately after the deadline.

[LJ2]

A slight downside to NYK seeming to start to fall apart now is that from Denver's perspective, they might be looking at this and thinking, 'hey, they're going to get us a really high pick, so we're going to swap picks anyway; might as well try to win as much as possible for the rest of the season, including making trades that improve us both short and long-term, and certainly not trade away to tank further.'

My ideal scenario would be NYK looking good up until the trade deadline (so that Denver decides they need to keep tanking themselves), and then the Knicks falling apart immediately after the deadline.

I found it odd that Denver came up as one of the 3 teams looking to trade for Horford. Denver is nowhere close to being competitive and yet they want to acquire Horford, so the could....do what exactly? They need to spend sometime acquiring high draft picks before trying to acquire a marquee player, imo.

[JWash]

It was well publicized that Masai tried very hard to trade into the draft specifically to take Giannis. If he had the 13th pick already he obviously would have taken him.

Easy to say that but would it have been the 13th pick if we didn't have Lowry? It probably would've been higher making someone like Giannis an incredible reach. Maybe we end up 6th or 7th, Cavs don't get #1 (cause the odds would be different), Bennett gets picked where he's supposed to by the hometown Raps instead.

It's really pointless to be revisionist like this with drafts. I mean I could go back to 2005 and say what if we took Bynum instead of Charlie V? Granger instead of Graham? Traded up and took Ellis instead of Ukic? Oh man Ellis-Granger-Bosh-Bynum core, nice!

[golden]

Interesting trade idea: would you trade something to Denver (e.g. young asset, Clippers pick, etc...) for the Nuggets to remove the swap rights on the Knicks pick? Would the Nuggets even consider it?

[Axel]

Interesting trade idea: would you trade something to Denver (e.g. young asset, Clippers pick, etc...) for the Nuggets to remove the swap rights on the Knicks pick? Would the Nuggets even consider it?

Not sure what we could offer that would entice Denver to do such a thing. It's such a great insurance policy and if teams in the west keep getting hurt, Denver could still sneak in somehow.

[Mess]

Interesting trade idea: would you trade something to Denver (e.g. young asset, Clippers pick, etc...) for the Nuggets to remove the swap rights on the Knicks pick? Would the Nuggets even consider it?

I don't think picks can be modified from their original conditions anyway.

[DanH]

I don't think picks can be modified from their original conditions anyway.

Protections cannot be modified but swap rights can be relinquished.

[Primer]

Interesting trade idea: would you trade something to Denver (e.g. young asset, Clippers pick, etc...) for the Nuggets to remove the swap rights on the Knicks pick? Would the Nuggets even consider it?

It's looking increasingly likely that Denver and NYK will have about the same record to end the season, so I don't think it'd be worth it to trade anything for the rights to extinguish the swap. Basically, what would you trade to move up 1 spot in the draft, from 9-8, or 8-7? I'd give a 2nd rounder, but I don't think that does anything for Denver.

[DanH]

It's looking increasingly likely that Denver and NYK will have about the same record to end the season, so I don't think it'd be worth it to trade anything for the rights to extinguish the swap. Basically, what would you trade to move up 1 spot in the draft, from 9-8, or 8-7? I'd give a 2nd rounder, but I don't think that does anything for Denver.

Basically by removing the swap rights, you are buying a lotto ticket - there is a small but not negligible chance the Knicks jump into the top 3. There is basically no chance both picks do.

[JWash]

Can't see what we'd be able to give Denver that gets them to do that and doesn't sabotage our depth. Unless they'd have interest in getting a 2nd 1st rounder, but they'd be so stupid to accept our pick in addition to the lower pick for the higher one essentially.

Could literally turn out to be trading #8+#25 for #1-3. Horrible, horrible move.

[golden]

Basically by removing the swap rights, you are buying a lotto ticket - there is a small but not negligible chance the Knicks jump into the top 3. There is basically no chance both picks do.

Precisely. After I had that epic roll on the weekend putting both picks in the top 3, I tried a few time since and noticed that the Knicks pick on its own and the Nuggets pick on its own, actually gets into the top 5 a lot more than one would think.

[golden]

Can't see what we'd be able to give Denver that gets them to do that and doesn't sabotage our depth. Unless they'd have interest in getting a 2nd 1st rounder, but they'd be so stupid to accept our pick in addition to the lower pick for the higher one essentially.

Could literally turn out to be trading #8+#25 for #1-3. Horrible, horrible move.

I dunno. You're just playing probabilities with the lottery. If both picks stay where they are and the most likely odds play out, then the Nuggets would squeeze an asset out of the Raps for essentially nothing. It's an interesting risk-reward profile from Denver's perspective.

[JWash]

I dunno. You're just playing probabilities with the lottery. If both picks stay where they are and the most likely odds play out, then the Nuggets would squeeze an asset out of the Raps for essentially nothing. It's an interesting risk-reward profile from Denver's perspective.

Hmm that's a good point. But I think the simple risk factor of essentially trading away the #1 pick for the #8-10 and a late 1st would be too much for them to agree to the deal. Like it doesn't make sense to take that gamble just to get an extra late 1st.

And it does make a significant difference to the odds.

For the team with the worse pick to pick top 3, both of the picks need to land in the top 3 via the lottery. There is an extremely low chance of that happening.

The chance of a team with the 7th best odds picking top 3 is 15%. For the 8th best team it's 10%. That's still a decent chance. About 1 in 7 and 1 in 10. However for both to land top 3 that's a 1.5% chance (about 1 in 60). It's a significant reduction in top 3 odds for a minimal gain in assets, makes no sense for Denver.

[golden]

Hmm that's a good point. But I think the simple risk factor of essentially trading away the #1 pick for the #8-10 and a late 1st would be too much for them to agree to the deal. Like it doesn't make sense to take that gamble just to get an extra late 1st.

And it does make a significant difference to the odds.

For the team with the worse pick to pick top 3, both of the picks need to land in the top 3 via the lottery. There is an extremely low chance of that happening.

The chance of a team with the 7th best odds picking top 3 is 15%. For the 8th best team it's 10%. That's still a decent chance. About 1 in 7 and 1 in 10. However for both to land top 3 that's a 1.5% chance (about 1 in 60). It's a significant reduction in top 3 odds for a minimal gain in assets, makes no sense for Denver.

Again, this an exercise in probabilities and Monte Carlo simulations. Statistically, it's actually a bad move on the Raps part if the most likely odds play out. It's basically coughing up an extra asset to the Nuggets to remove the upside on a long-shot lottery ticket. Nuggets would get us to cough up a sure thing extra asset (whatever that might be), basically for nothing. This is nothing like the Celtics-Nets pick situation where they are almost guaranteed top 3 with an excellent shot at Ben Simmons. Risk of Knicks pick moving to top 3 (from Denver perspective) is very low. Chance of getting a "franchise" player drops significantly even after the 1st pick. This is more of a risk on Raps part, depending on what the asset could/would be to get the Nuggets to relinquish the swap rights. The bottom line is that Denver's only downside is if the Raps get extremely lucky and the stars align with the Knicks and the ping pong balls.

[JWash]

Again, this an exercise in probabilities and Monte Carlo simulations. Statistically, it's actually a bad move on the Raps part if the most likely odds play out. It's basically coughing up an extra asset to the Nuggets to remove the upside on a long-shot lottery ticket. Nuggets would get us to cough up a sure thing extra asset (whatever that might be), basically for nothing. This is nothing like the Celtics-Nets pick situation where they are almost guaranteed top 3 with an excellent shot at Ben Simmons. Risk of Knicks pick moving to top 3 (from Denver perspective) is very low. Chance of getting a "franchise" player drops significantly even after the 1st pick. This is more of a risk on Raps part, depending on what the asset could/would be to get the Nuggets to relinquish the swap rights. The bottom line is that Denver's only downside is if the Raps get extremely lucky and the stars align with the Knicks and the ping pong balls.

Ok if Denver and New York end up 7th and 8th, and Denver were to swap us the better of the two picks for the worse one and #25 (our pick) here's the reality:

Best Case Scenario (1.5% chance): Both picks move into top 3.
Most Likely Scenario for Denver (73.5% chance): Move down 1 spot in the draft and get a late 1st rounder
Worst Case Scenario (25% chance): One of the picks moves into the top 3 (10% chance for 7th + 15% chance for 8th)

It would be beyond stupid for Denver to do. Risking a shot at a top 3 pick just to get a late 1st? How does that make any sense?

The reward is heavily outweighed by the risk.