Raptors 2016 Trade Deadline - Dec 15th 2015 - Feb 18th 2016 @ 3pm EST

[draps]

Normally agree with you Dan but this is nuts, Young is absolutely a significant upgrade over what we have at PF. I definitely don't agree with sending Wright or multiple 1sts, but sending them 2pat, Bebe, and a 1st (or 2nds) seems like a really good deal.

He does fit and I explained that pretty thoroughly (including laying out how he's an upgrade), feel free to rebut, but you gotta give some analysis.

Would also like to hear what you'd aim for instead with a package like what I just said (2pat, Bebe, our 1st this year), and why it's feasible and better than Thad Young.

Or what kind of package you'd put together, and for whom, to aim higher.

Posts like that aren't very productive, they don't send the convo anywhere.

Dan is right, the guy is James Johnson with opportunity/touches. He needs the ball to create his own, and doesn't compliment our backcourt as all. This move wouldn't make us better at all.

[Chr1s1anL]

Markieff Morris won 2 player of the week awards last season. In the Western conference. To say his not a better player than Scola/2pat is dumb.

[Miekenstien]

Markieff Morris won 2 player of the week awards last season. In the Western conference. To say his not a better player than Scola/2pat is dumb.

one cake gives you 500 calories and is nice to people around it. the other cake gives you only 300 calories but also cancer. which cake will you eat?

[Axel]

one cake gives you 500 calories and is nice to people around it. the other cake gives you only 300 calories but also cancer. which cake will you eat?

The cake is a lie.

[Axel]

Of the guys who might possibly be available at the deadline, the ones I'm interested in are Gallinari, Batum and Ryan Anderson.

Has there been a single rumour that Batum is available? Or even Gallo?

Outside of this board I haven't seen any.

[DanH]

Normally agree with you Dan but this is nuts, Young is absolutely a significant upgrade over what we have at PF. I definitely don't agree with sending Wright or multiple 1sts, but sending them 2pat, Bebe, and a 1st (or 2nds) seems like a really good deal.

He does fit and I explained that pretty thoroughly (including laying out how he's an upgrade), feel free to rebut, but you gotta give some analysis.

Would also like to hear what you'd aim for instead with a package like what I just said (2pat, Bebe, our 1st this year), and why it's feasible and better than Thad Young.

Or what kind of package you'd put together, and for whom, to aim higher.

Posts like that aren't very productive, they don't send the convo anywhere.

Fine, then. Hold me to the same standards I hold everyone else. Doesn't seem fair, but FINE.

I would be all over a Thaddeus Young for Patrick Patterson and 2nd round picks trade (we'd need to toss in Johnson or Bebe too for salary). Hell, I'd give them our first this year (not the Knicks pick), or the Clips pick next year if we want to give them something shittier than our pick.

Thaddeus Young is way better than Markieff Morris, get that out of the way first. Way more efficient, better rebounder, better defender, better shooter, better teammate, not a head case.

This is correct. Kief is terrible, plus is a massive chemistry risk. Thad is neither of those things.

As for him not being a shooter, that's horse shit. Last year on Brooklyn in 28 games he shot .380 from 3 in almost 2 attempts per game.

The requirement at PF is not a player who is able to hit a three a game on a decent percentage. We have that in Scola, and he provides pretty much zero spacing for our star guards. Thad would be the same.

That said, he shot .380 on 50 attempts (this is a half season in BKN). 50 attempts is roughly 12 games for Patrick Patterson. It's not a real sample to determine a shooter. You know who else has had seasons with 40-60 3PA's and a 3PT% above .375? Karl Malone. Amir Johnson. It's a largely meaningless sample. Still, main point is that ability to shoot low volume threes isn't actually very valuable to the team - we already have that in Scola and it's not really helping that much.

Young is also a fantastic long 2 shooter, shooting .452 from 16-3P range. We got Scola to start taking those shots from 3 instead of 2 this year, and his 3p% is double his career mark. We could do the same with Young, have him take a step back, and he should be able to hit 3's at around his .380 range from last season, maybe better.
That is literally exactly what he did last year in Brooklyn.

Last year FGA (16-3p .064) (3p .153)
This year FGA (16-3p .145) (3p .038)

The ONE full season where he actually attempted to do this he ended up with a 3PT% of .308. Not acceptable for a "shooter." Last season he only got up to 1.5 3PA's on the year and managed a barely-PPP rate of 33%. The segment of last season where he shot .380 was largely bolstered by him suddenly hitting a ton of his corner threes (43%) in, of course, a small sample, and which he'd never even approached before (even his first couple years in the league where he showed promise as a shooter he only posted high-.300's from the corners). This will likely never be repeated.

Here's a fun game. Let's transport back to a moment in time. We'll call it some arbitrary date like December 3rd, 2013. A player who typically has not posted good 3PT%'s, has just come off a stretch where he shot 39% on almost 4 attempts per game, for a total of 65 three point attempts over 17 games (a comparable sample to Thad's 28 games of 1.8 attempts where he shot 38%, 50 attempts in total). Would you call this player a shooter? They are known for their midrange game, including the prior season where they shot above 40% from 16 feet to the three point line. Would you acquire this player as a floor spacer for other slashers/post players to work with?

Thaddeus is only 27, and signed through 2017-18 (player option in 2018-19) on a very good contract, slightly more than what we gave Ross.

When he was on a decent 76ers team, he had a good WS/48 for 3 straight seasons. Even on his abomination of a Nets team, he's still on pace for 5.2 WS (more than Scola). WS is tied to your team actually winning games, so it's even more impressive he's doing it on a team with only 11 wins.

Yes, he had a very good WS/48 on those teams. Of course, it helps that he took practically zero threes in that time, as he is MUCH more effective playing in the paint and around the basket, and in those years he posted well above average free throw rates and offensive rebounding rates (compared to his career). Unfortunately on our team he will either be relegated to the sort of play that decided did NOT lead to high WS totals, or he will be occupying the same space as our starting C, SG and sometimes PG, who are all at their best getting into the paint.

His PER of 18.3 is excellent. He's siginificantly better than Scola by all the BPM metrics and VORP. He's the exact kind of player that would turn out to be a steal when gets on a team that doesn't blow asshole.

He has 2.5 RPM Wins this season, 17th among PF, and slightly more than Aldridge for context. Scola is 22nd at 2.01 RPM wins.

Anyone who doesn't like this deal has not done their homework.

So wait, RPM puts him sliiiiightly better than Scola among PF's, and you use that as evidence this is an upgrade worth chasing? Also, if you are going to quote RPM, don't use BPM too (as it is a boxscore attempt to recreate RPM from boxscore stats via regression and is by definition less accurate as there is an added layer of error) - also VORP is essentially just a minutes*BPM calculation, no real added value quoting both.

Ed Davis has a PER over 18. Is he an upgrade? Brandon Bass too. Upgrade? Derrick Williams has a PER of 19! He could take us over the top, am I right? These box score compiling stats are especially prone to making mediocre players look good when they have big roles on bad teams. While we are at it we should go get Lou Williams as an upgrade to Ross and Joseph, since he has a PER of 18 too.

He may well be a steal for a decent team on which he fits. No guarantee, of course.

He does not fit on this team, though, so it is irrelevant in my mind. And considering the upgrade is minimal, it is certainly not worth the risk to chemistry and the asset cost to gamble that he can regain true contributor form on a team where he may or may not make any of the key players' jobs easier.

---

Oh, yeah, the fun game we played above. DeMar DeRozan, by the way. Has shot 26% from 3 since that day on 311 total shots (1.9 shots per game). Floor spacer!

[psrs1]

I guess the upside for Brooklyn is that it'll be harder for BC to trade away all their assets for former stars that don't really fit when they don't have any assets.

Can't he send a trade exception?

[3inthekeon]

Has there been a single rumour that Batum is available? Or even Gallo?

Outside of this board I haven't seen any.

Where is the rumour Thad Young is available?

[golden]

I would be all over a Thaddeus Young for Patrick Patterson and 2nd round picks trade (we'd need to toss in Johnson or Bebe too for salary). Hell, I'd give them our first this year (not the Knicks pick), or the Clips pick next year if we want to give them something shittier than our pick.

Thaddeus Young is way better than Markieff Morris, get that out of the way first. Way more efficient, better rebounder, better defender, better shooter, better teammate, not a head case.

As for him not being a shooter, that's horse shit. Last year on Brooklyn in 28 games he shot .380 from 3 in almost 2 attempts per game.

Young is also a fantastic long 2 shooter, shooting .452 from 16-3P range. We got Scola to start taking those shots from 3 instead of 2 this year, and his 3p% is double his career mark. We could do the same with Young, have him take a step back, and he should be able to hit 3's at around his .380 range from last season, maybe better.
That is literally exactly what he did last year in Brooklyn.

Last year FGA (16-3p .064) (3p .153)
This year FGA (16-3p .145) (3p .038)

Thaddeus is only 27, and signed through 2017-18 (player option in 2018-19) on a very good contract, slightly more than what we gave Ross.

When he was on a decent 76ers team, he had a good WS/48 for 3 straight seasons. Even on his abomination of a Nets team, he's still on pace for 5.2 WS (more than Scola). WS is tied to your team actually winning games, so it's even more impressive he's doing it on a team with only 11 wins.

His PER of 18.3 is excellent. He's siginificantly better than Scola by all the BPM metrics and VORP. He's the exact kind of player that would turn out to be a steal when gets on a team that doesn't blow asshole.

He has 2.5 RPM Wins this season, 17th among PF, and slightly more than Aldridge for context. Scola is 22nd at 2.01 RPM wins.

Anyone who doesn't like this deal has not done their homework.

Prime, if you're not in sales you need to be, because this was great. Your chutzpah is off-the-charts. lol.

Yet somehow you managed to cherry-pick the few stats from Thad's entire career that would indicate even mediocre competence as a "shooter". He's been inconsistent as f*** over his entire career. I mean seriously all over the map. That .452 from long 2, is a small sample aberration, because he's consistently hovering around .300 for the previous 3 years. That's not a shooter, and not at all like Scola who was comfortably above .400. And this season, Thad is taking over 75% of his shots from within 10 ft of the basket (average dist. 6.7 ft!). He's also shooting .125 from corner 3's (really small sample). None of this screams adequate shooter, by any means. And if you look at his PER this year, it looks like it's directly related to his career high rebounding rate, probably because Brook Lopez sucks at DREB, but attracts attention on offense, so Thad is getting more opportunities at both ends, and is excelling at that.

I always thought of Thad as slasher and open court finisher - not sure why we expect him to even become serviceable as a floor spacing PF, just because Scola miraculously did it. We're going to give up assets because we hope lightning will strike twice?

Have a look at his shooting chart, folks, and decide for yourself....

[Nilanka]

Where is the rumour Thad Young is available?

Unconfirmed rumour.....

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post577219

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post577250

[planetmars]

Where is the rumour Thad Young is available?

He probably isn't.. but Hoops Hype Canada twitter post suggested it based on a Zach Lowe off the cuff suggestion. Once a rumour is out there (even if its not legit) then it'll get discussed.

[Machine]

Fine, then. Hold me to the same standards I hold everyone else. Doesn't seem fair, but FINE.



This is correct. Kief is terrible, plus is a massive chemistry risk. Thad is neither of those things.



The requirement at PF is not a player who is able to hit a three a game on a decent percentage. We have that in Scola, and he provides pretty much zero spacing for our star guards. Thad would be the same.

That said, he shot .380 on 50 attempts (this is a half season in BKN). 50 attempts is roughly 12 games for Patrick Patterson. It's not a real sample to determine a shooter. You know who else has had seasons with 40-60 3PA's and a 3PT% above .375? Karl Malone. Amir Johnson. It's a largely meaningless sample. Still, main point is that ability to shoot low volume threes isn't actually very valuable to the team - we already have that in Scola and it's not really helping that much.



The ONE full season where he actually attempted to do this he ended up with a 3PT% of .308. Not acceptable for a "shooter." Last season he only got up to 1.5 3PA's on the year and managed a barely-PPP rate of 33%. The segment of last season where he shot .380 was largely bolstered by him suddenly hitting a ton of his corner threes (43%) in, of course, a small sample, and which he'd never even approached before (even his first couple years in the league where he showed promise as a shooter he only posted high-.300's from the corners). This will likely never be repeated.

Here's a fun game. Let's transport back to a moment in time. We'll call it some arbitrary date like December 3rd, 2013. A player who typically has not posted good 3PT%'s, has just come off a stretch where he shot 39% on almost 4 attempts per game, for a total of 65 three point attempts over 17 games (a comparable sample to Thad's 28 games of 1.8 attempts where he shot 38%, 50 attempts in total). Would you call this player a shooter? They are known for their midrange game, including the prior season where they shot above 40% from 16 feet to the three point line. Would you acquire this player as a floor spacer for other slashers/post players to work with?



Yes, he had a very good WS/48 on those teams. Of course, it helps that he took practically zero threes in that time, as he is MUCH more effective playing in the paint and around the basket, and in those years he posted well above average free throw rates and offensive rebounding rates (compared to his career). Unfortunately on our team he will either be relegated to the sort of play that decided did NOT lead to high WS totals, or he will be occupying the same space as our starting C, SG and sometimes PG, who are all at their best getting into the paint.



So wait, RPM puts him sliiiiightly better than Scola among PF's, and you use that as evidence this is an upgrade worth chasing? Also, if you are going to quote RPM, don't use BPM too (as it is a boxscore attempt to recreate RPM from boxscore stats via regression and is by definition less accurate as there is an added layer of error) - also VORP is essentially just a minutes*BPM calculation, no real added value quoting both.

Ed Davis has a PER over 18. Is he an upgrade? Brandon Bass too. Upgrade? Derrick Williams has a PER of 19! He could take us over the top, am I right? These box score compiling stats are especially prone to making mediocre players look good when they have big roles on bad teams. While we are at it we should go get Lou Williams as an upgrade to Ross and Joseph, since he has a PER of 18 too.

He may well be a steal for a decent team on which he fits. No guarantee, of course.

He does not fit on this team, though, so it is irrelevant in my mind. And considering the upgrade is minimal, it is certainly not worth the risk to chemistry and the asset cost to gamble that he can regain true contributor form on a team where he may or may not make any of the key players' jobs easier.

---

Oh, yeah, the fun game we played above. DeMar DeRozan, by the way. Has shot 26% from 3 since that day on 311 total shots (1.9 shots per game). Floor spacer!

Can't find the Mic? I think it's been dropped.

[3inthekeon]

Thanks Nilanka and pm.

[breakin_ankles]

Thad Young is a BIG hell no for me .. plain and simple, Brooklyn will demand licks because of the state of the franchise.

Ryan Anderson is not an adequate defender and will require Ross.

Terrence Jones is due for a large pay raise and will again take a large amount of assets because he's in Houston.

Regardless of all the arguments made against him. I will remain on the Markieff Morris train until he is traded elsewhere. Many arguments have been given against him, mostly about character. My stance and opinion in picking him up really comes down to 3 things, opportunity, contract value & upside... the fact of the matter is , you will not find a PF with his potential to contribute for 8 mill a year anywhere in the league. And because of the situation it presents a unique opportunity to get him very cheap (based in his actual value) .. it's a buy low, low risk option and if (when) he makes a resurgence he immediately becomes a fantastic trade asset should you want to go another direction.

I'm sick of hearing about the character flaws and the potential of being a cancer . Lowry was a knucklehead and they are friends , if you truly believe that just moving to a new situation and a winning team , with a leader like Lowry wouldn't impact him in a positive way , you're delusional.

I'm not going to push stats and argue more over something that at the end of the day we "couch GMs" have ZERO control or impact on. Character issues removed I feel he is the right choice hands down (especially because of the cost) and for me that is enough .

-------------

Not that I'm a cap master (at all , so Dan H feel free to help with this) but moving 2pat for him gives us a long term starting caliber PF who is not at his ceiling yet. We could let him run this year on the bench to stabilize bench scoring with Ross , easily offsetting the offensive black hole that is biyombo .
This year's draft we can scoop a bench ready PF with the Knicks pick and move him up to replace scola . Try to resign JJ to back up Carrol , try to resign biyombo and if that fails then it's time for bebe to be the backup 5 .
Resign DDR for what is required .

Lowry / Joseph
DeRozan / Ross
Carrol / JJ
Scola / Morris
JV / Biyombo
Reserve : Wright, Powell, Bruno or Bebe

To me , that is the answer, current and future. Depth , offense & defense stability. Versatility.
I'm done arguing over this but that's my full opinion.

[3inthekeon]

Something from ESPN that pertains to the Thad Young discussion plus Dans comments on Scola's lack of floorspacing despite his high 3 pt%.

Carter-Williams exemplifies one truism proven out by SportVU data: When it comes to spacing, taking 3s is more important than whether they go in. The percentage of shots a player attempts from beyond the arc correlates more strongly to distraction score than 3-point percentage.