Building a contender on a knife's edge?

[slaw]

Just want to clarify one thing though, the OP isn't suggesting that we can't or shouldn't resign Demar; merely that the margin for error will be less than with another max level talent.

The final paragraph of the OP:
"None of this is to say that we can't build a contender with DD on a max (or near max) deal, just that the popular saying "more than one way to build a contender" may not actually apply here. If we want max $ level of productivity from Demar, we may need to build a contender in a very specific manner. The margin of error for Masai is smaller."

I'm not sure the margin for error is much less, though? As I posted earlier, if you're looking at the top 20 guys in the NBA by salary, 4 of them have won titles (and that includes the Miami 3) and most of them have historically presented big challenges if you were building around them (Love, Griffin, Aldridge, Milsap, Paul George, Gasol, Lopez, Bosh, Melo, etc.). In the new world order, guys like Horford and Beal will be making +$20M. You can argue which of those guys are better than Derozan (or worse) but are any of them materially easier to build a contender around than Derozan?

In an ideal world, you'd obviously want: a) one of the 5 or 6 franchise guys and/or b) your stars on big discounts (SA, MIA, GSW), but that isn't the world most teams operate in.

[Demographic Shift]

Random factoid: With a reported annual salary of $25 million next year, DeRozan will be earning the approximate salaries of both Steph Curry and Draymond Green combined.

Good for Demar and to bad for Curry and Green.
Maybe DD's agent goes to the all star agent game while Curry's and Green's gets to sweep the floor after the game for making the decision to take good money in the present instead of great money in the future. Inevitability Curry will get his money. He will just have to make due with a few less millions for a couple of years.

[Primer]

Why is no one considering the "build around DD and JV" scenario?

Lowry will be 31 after next season when his contract is up. Guards typically decline a lot in their early 30's, especially guys who play like Lowry. I'd be much more worried about giving Lowry a big deal when it is inevitable he will rapidly decline throughout the contract. DD is 4 years younger than Lowry, his prime is much more in line with JV's and the rest of the team.

Not to mention we have CoJo and Wright who could both potentially take over the starting PG role, and their primes once again match up much better with JV and DD.

Not saying we have to go this way, but I'd only want to bring Lowry back on short term deal, and he most certainly will want a long term deal as it will most likely be his last big NBA contract.

It might make a lot of sense to try and deal Lowry this offseason while he still has a year left on his deal at a great price and is at maximum value coming off back to back All Star seasons. Seems like the perfect kind of player to bring back a young stud from an impatient team looking to make an immediate jump up the rankings.

[JWash]

Personally, I feel like on a team with DeMar, JJ is somewhat unusable anyways for spacing reasons. Ross can be quite effective with Carroll though, and Ross can play backup 2/small ball 3 for us when Carroll moves to the 4 for a small lineup.

JJ isn't "unusable" with DeMar. It's just kind of nonsensical to play DeMar-JJ-Scola together when you have other options like incorporating Ross into the mix or 2Pat.

There are other lineups in which what JJ provides is more useful to the team. He's a slasher, defender and somewhat of a playmaker. Those are all things that would work better next to Ross because Ross is mostly a shooter and doesn't excel at slashing or playmaking. Or work well with 2Pat to have that inside/outside threat from 3/4.

[Primer]

Are we factoring in all of the new max contracts that are likely to be signed in the summer though (by the likes of Batum and players of that calibre)? Basically, is max level talent the Lebron/Durant, or is it the average of guys with max contracts (including Kobe, D-Rose, etc.)?

Didn't Pekovic sign a max deal (or very near max)? Lots and lots of players much much worse than DD have gotten max or near max deals in recent years. People need to stop looking at the number and start looking at the percentage of cap. DD's talent level puts him very comfortably in the max to near max range. Guys like Lebron and Curry are just underpaid because of the salary cap forcing their salaries down to the level of guys like DD.

[JWash]

Why is no one considering the "build around DD and JV" scenario?

Lowry will be 31 after next season when his contract is up. Guards typically decline a lot in their early 30's, especially guys who play like Lowry. I'd be much more worried about giving Lowry a big deal when it is inevitable he will rapidly decline throughout the contract. DD is 4 years younger than Lowry, his prime is much more in line with JV's and the rest of the team.

Not to mention we have CoJo and Wright who could both potentially take over the starting PG role, and their primes once again match up much better with JV and DD.

Not saying we have to go this way, but I'd only want to bring Lowry back on short term deal, and he most certainly will want a long term deal as it will most likely be his last big NBA contract.

It might make a lot of sense to try and deal Lowry this offseason while he still has a year left on his deal at a great price and is at maximum value coming off back to back All Star seasons. Seems like the perfect kind of player to bring back a young stud from an impatient team looking to make an immediate jump up the rankings.

Oh trust me I'm sure some of us have considered this (I know for a fact I have). I think a lot of people aren't considering the fact that Lowry could possibly get an even bigger payday than DeRozan in 2017. He would have 10 years of experience, making him eligible to make a deal starting at $35M with the cap ballooning to $108M.

You mentioned CoJo and Wright, I'm also looking at that kid who Coach Cal is literally tanking to the Raptors by playing him at SF, Jamal Murray

DeRozan+JV is actually more logical than moving forward with Lowry/JV. Like you said they're much closer in age (only a 3 year gap) and assuming we can re-sign DeMar both will be locked up for the foreseeable future while we're going to really have to be very careful with how we pay Lowry in 2017 considering his age.

If you let Lowry go, all of a sudden there's a ton of flexibility in 2017 with his 18M cap hold off the books, making us players in a free agent class that's a lot deeper than 2016's.

[JWash]

Didn't Pekovic sign a max deal (or very near max)? Lots and lots of players much much worse than DD have gotten max or near max deals in recent years. People need to stop looking at the number and start looking at the percentage of cap. DD's talent level puts him very comfortably in the max to near max range. Guys like Lebron and Curry are just underpaid because of the salary cap forcing their salaries down to the level of guys like DD.

If DD signs for 25M per year. Which is what I think we're (realistically) hoping for at this point (5yr/125M), he's taking up about 25% of the cap per year. Most people are still thinking in terms of a $60M cap, so that would be equivalent to about $15M per year under that salary structure. So ask yourself. Two years ago would you have splashed a 5yr/$75M deal for a player of DeRozan's current level and age? If the answer is yes, then you should have no issue with him getting 5/125M in the offseason.

[mcHAPPY]

Why is no one considering the "build around DD and JV" scenario?

Lowry will be 31 after next season when his contract is up. Guards typically decline a lot in their early 30's, especially guys who play like Lowry. I'd be much more worried about giving Lowry a big deal when it is inevitable he will rapidly decline throughout the contract. DD is 4 years younger than Lowry, his prime is much more in line with JV's and the rest of the team.

Not to mention we have CoJo and Wright who could both potentially take over the starting PG role, and their primes once again match up much better with JV and DD.

Not saying we have to go this way, but I'd only want to bring Lowry back on short term deal, and he most certainly will want a long term deal as it will most likely be his last big NBA contract.

It might make a lot of sense to try and deal Lowry this offseason while he still has a year left on his deal at a great price and is at maximum value coming off back to back All Star seasons. Seems like the perfect kind of player to bring back a young stud from an impatient team looking to make an immediate jump up the rankings.

The DD-JV is a really good point.

I'm still highly skeptical Lowry is a Raptor next season.

[Nilanka]

I have zero faith that Ross can "bring it" for 82 games a year as a Starter.

Or as a 6th man, for that matter.

[Joey]

Ahhhhh so because that is your opinion this must fall in the 10% that is NOT speculation around here:

Huh? I never said it wasn't speculation. Doesn't mean I can't stand my point...
You're the one who basically tried to say that because something is speculation, its not valid .. or something.

Too bad OSC. I thought your points were worth discussion.

And no one said his points aren't worth discussing... It was HE who said others points are not worth discussing and they should shut up ... no?

Anyways, in typical fashion DD fashion around here, OSC points are lost because people don't like the message or messenger.

Its that we disagree with the message ... and therefore are voicing why we disagree with it ...

[SkywalkerAC]

Being 2nd in the conference without the GM having started going "all in" doesn't make it look like that sharp of a knife edge.

[JWash]

Any system where the SG is a #3/#4 offensive option, where you want off-ball play, 3pt shooting and defense, would definitely favor Ross.

For example, I think Ross would fit much better as a plug-and-play guy on the current Warriors team than DeRozan, since their style of play doesn't really seem to mesh with the style of play that maximizes DeRozan's strengths (slow, dribble-heavy ISO play).

On the Raptors, under Casey, I 100% agree that DeRozan is the better player and better fit. On a revamped roster with a completely new offensive system, I think it's absolutely fair to say that style of play, complimentary skillsets and overall fit could lead to Ross being more necessary/valuable. That still doesn't mean that Ross is suddenly the better player straight-up.

Lol I will gladly take a team with three players who are more dangerous offensively than DeRozan and jettison him and move forwards from there, but you've got to have those players first and they don't come easy and they don't come cheap.

[Wild-ling#1]

The "You can't build a winner with DeMar!" line of reasoning is what fueled so much friction, on the DeRozan thread, for soooooo long.

But now that DeMar has taken another "step", and we can argue we have the best back-court in the East, with a pile of assets to bring in more pieces, I'd say this franchise is in a better position to move forward that it has ever been in.

So we can discuss ditching DeMar to to chase Durant (and Lebron, too, while you're at it). Or in favour of Ross and another system. But I say that the very idea of "moving on from our core" now seems nothing but a dangerous fantasy. I'm amazed that, with respect to our "core" so far, that anyone is doing anything other than looking over at Philly - or Brooklyn ... and counting our blessings.

... Counting our "lucky stars" as it were ...

[Joey]

Random factoid: With a reported annual salary of $25 million next year, DeRozan will be earning the approximate salaries of both Steph Curry and Draymond Green combined.

Gilbert Arenas was making $22M up until last season ... Lol

[JWash]

I don't think it is a perfectly valid argument at all. One can speculate but that is all it is - one way or the other.


We have no clue what JV can do as a focal point - rather than a pity after-thought.

We have no clue what would be done with DD's cap space.

We have no clue what a new coach would do or run.

We have no clue what a new coach could do to the confidence and performance of players (just today you have Withey talking about difference between Snyder and Williams and effect it has had on his performance).


But through this discussion there have been references to just plugging in Ross and keeping status quo. Obviously that would cause the team to take a step back because Ross and DD have vastly different strengths and weaknesses. So yeah, if you're going to come from that angle, team is going to suffer. But if you're willing to admit there is more to basketball than Caseyball, then, no, we don't know what this team would be with a new system - especially one that focused on an inside-out game with on- and off-ball movement.

Yeah...no.

I assume the style of basketball you would want to play when removing DD and replacing him with Ross is something similar to Atlanta. Free-flowing offense, moving the ball, high assist-rates all around, etc.

You realize that no matter what play-style you have, the NBA is first and foremost about talent.

Look at Atlanta's roster from last season. Teague was arguably playing at a higher level than Lowry last season. Horford is a star, Millsap is a star, Korver is the best catch and shoot guy in the league, DeMarre was one of the best 3+D guys in the NBA hitting 3s at a 40% clip.

You let DD walk Lowry-Ross-Carroll-(10-15M PF)-Valanciunas is not going to be on par or even close to that team, even if you do get your hands on one of the best coaches in the NBA.

There is an ocean in terms of pure basketball ability between Ross and DeRozan and it's not something that's going to be overcome purely by a system change. This isn't Rudy Gay where he was chucking us out of games, this guy is DOMINATING games offensively. It's not trivial to replace.