You can't look at when the PG is starting to determine the records. In some cases just because someone started doesn't mean they played significant minutes. That's why 82 games breaks it according to lineup and not who started the game.
Also, most of Jack's starts happened when the Raptors were doing great during that middle stretch. Were the Raptors doing great because Jack started or was Jack looking good because the Raptors were doing great?
Its great that your using the advanced stats, I recently joined the revolution myself, but you can't grab one sample stat and then use it to try and prove a broad point. Trying to say that Jose was more effective simply because his win % was higher is only looking at one layer of the onion.
Jack actually outscored his man by a .2 points over 48 mins while Jose gave up 3.3 points, a huge discrepancy. They each had about an 18.2 PER while opposing pgs on Jack had a 16.8, they had a 22.6, again a huge difference.
Individually Jack outplayed Jose in most facets, but its a team game and it is very interesting that the starting line up with Jose played significantly better than with Jack.
I have no idea why this is so, I can't really even speculate other than Jose is a better floor general. The most interesting tidbit I learned from the five man units stats is how much better the defense was when Weems was on the floor. The units with the highest win share all involve Weems and surprising a lot of them have Wright.
The best line up last year was either Calderon-Weems-Wright-Bargnani-Bosh or Jack-Weems-Wright-Bargnani-Bosh. I didn't really like Wright last year, but its hard to argue with those numbers.
The Calderon-Weems-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bargnani and Jack-Weems-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh were also very effective. What I gathered from looking at these line ups is that if Derozan was on the floor, the team got outscored and usually lost, Turk was okay if he wasn't with Derozan, Jack and Jose played effectively as long as they were with the (w)right combination's and Weems is money.
Actually if you go and look at minutes played they both play relatively an equal amount.Marz wrote:
Beyond this I don't think its logical to use static cases to determine the better guard. How often did the lineup stay the same? It was changing throughout the season. I think the most important question is how did each played on the season as a whole. Bosh probably won't be back next year. DeRozan will be a different player. Bargnani will be improved and hopefully better on the boards and defense. Hedo might come to camp in shape and with a better attitude. How does that factor into stats? I'm more confident to go with the guy who showed better results under a less static setting.
Last edited by Apollo; Fri Apr 23rd, 2010 at 02:50 PM.
First, I want to point out that this thread wasn't about who is a better guard overall. I happen to believe it's Calderon, but that's not the issue here. The issue is who worked better with the starting unit. The main argument used to support the idea that Jack should be the starter was that he had better chemistry with the starting unit. I wanted to see if that was true, and when I checked it out it seemed to be false.
Now, Apollo brings up some interesting details when he posts about the winning record of the Raptors with Calderon starting vs. Jack. This is relevant evidence for the question 'who should start'; however, it's not as relevant to the original question (that is, the question of who works better with the starting unit). After all, what if Jack's record as a starter was good because the second unit with Calderon was blowing away the opposing second unit? In that case, Jack would get the credit for being a good starter, when it is Calderon winning the games.
The stats I posted at the beginning tends to support this interpretation. Being outscored by 13 points per 48 minutes is not likely a fluke with a sample size of 300+ minutes. If there is a reason why Jack had a better record than Calderon as a starter, the explanation CLEARLY is not that the starting unit played better with Jack than with Calderon. Because it is a fact that it did not, and it's not even close.
I AM curious what the explanation is. I suggested one possible contributing factor. One other explanation is that Calderon started towards the beginning and the end of the year, and there was another factor (namely, bad team chemistry and defense) which co-incidentally coincided with the beginning and end of the year. This factor may have contributed to the Raptors losing games in spite of the fact that Calderon starting was objectively better for the team.
BTW, I'm not saying that this must be the explanation, or even that it must be the case that the Raptors are better overall with Calderon starting (if the bench is much better with him, maybe you want him coming off the bench). The main point was, as I said, Calderon played better with the starters.
On a separate note, as to why I would want Calderon playing regular starters minutes and Jack coming off the bench for 12-16 minutes: Yes, it's a bit of a waste of Jack. But Calderon and Jack do not play well together, and playing Calderon only 26 minutes a game is a waste of Calderon. It is my view that Calderon is a better player and helps his team more than Jack, and so Jack taking Calderon's minutes makes the team worse. If you disagree, fine. I think the best solution is to trade Jack in some kind of a package to make the team better overall without the point guard redundancy, because I think the offense runs much better with Calderon and I don't think there's a big difference defensively. But that's really a separate question from the main point of this thread.
About PER comparisons: Position on Position PER I think is misleading in the Calderon/Jack case: it's not a great measure for point guards generally, because they have so much of an impact on the whole 5 man unit. A lot of what a guard does to facilitate offense doesn't show up as assists or shots. If you look at the Defensive Rating of Jack and Calderon, they are the same. This suggests that the super high PER supposedly achieved by Calderon's check may not be accurate, or if it is it was compensated by the rest of the opponent's offense going less well. One possible explanation is that Jack and Calderon played a lot of minutes together, and I doubt 82 games has accurately charted which man Jack and Calderon were checking in those situations. Since that was the main defensive trainwreck Calderon was involved in, any inaccuracy in charting defensive responsibilities for that lineup could make Calderon look worse than he was.
Last edited by malefax; Fri Apr 23rd, 2010 at 02:19 PM.
Stat's don't win games. At the end of the day give me the guy who wins more games.
And who is that guy Apollo? I believe that's what we're debating. And the only thing we have to go on are stats and our personal opinion from watching the games.
Those stats mean absolutely nothing. How many minutes did each player play? How did the team do when they were on the floor? Who actually finished the game on the floor?
Calderon was the starting PG when the team was figuring out each other in November, and when they had a really tough schedule. Jack was starting when they had their easiest schedule, in the middle of the season. And how many games did the Raptors get blown out in the first quarter, with Jack on the floor, only to have Calderon come in and bring the Raptors back in it?
The fact of the matter is that Jack individually played better than Calderon, but the team played better when Calderon was on the floor. In the end, the only thing that matters from my PG is whether or not he makes the team better. Calderon wins in this respect. And all the evidence supports this.
Jack face almost as many +.500 opponents as Calderon did. I think it was a difference of like three games.
Jack won more games. You need to look at all the stats, not just the ones that support your opinion. What's more important, opinion or truth? I'm not saying I think I'm 100% right but I'm trying to look at everything. Wins and losses mean a lot to me and they weren't being discussed so I provided that.
Last edited by Apollo; Fri Apr 23rd, 2010 at 03:53 PM.
How did Jack win more games? Because he started in those games? That's nonsense and you know it.
But you're doing the same thing. Tim's post explains what I couldn't: You can't just look at the W/L record for the starting PG. That's more flawed than the stats I'm looking at.
When he started they won more games. We were talking about starters and I provided their win/loss records as starters.
I'm providing the starting point. You don't think we should start with a concept such as starting which player resulted in more wins?
Last edited by Apollo; Fri Apr 23rd, 2010 at 04:10 PM.
The question is: "who worked better with the starting unit: Jack or Calderon?"
The question is not: "When Jose or Jack started, who had the better W/L record"
When playing with the starting unit is not the same as when starting. Lineups are dynamic, you know this just as much as I do. But eventually Triano uses one of his top 3 lineups:
Jose-DeRozan-Hedo-Andrea-Bosh
Jack-DeRozan-Hedo-Andrea-Bosh
Jose-Jack-Hedo-Andrea-Bosh
Did the last lineup start any games? I don't think so. But it sure played a lot of minutes. But because they didn't start the game that way their W/L record doesn't count? Really?
Not when both players played the same amount of minutes, and when one was starting when the team had a much, much tougher schedule. There were some games that one started and only played 10 or 15 minutes. How does that say how good of a starter he is? In the case of Jack vs Calderon you have to look at how the team did when they were on the floor, not the win/loss record, which means absolutely nothing.
wait, wait, wait, so if we have a 10-72 record and jose started all 72 of the lost games and jack started the 10 games we won.
but, jose semmed to have the starting unit playing better with him. then, jose should start?
didn't think about that one did you?
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