The 2016 Offseason thread

[big boi]

In a vacuum, sure, no doubt. But Jones is a free agent we might be able to get without giving up anything, and Noel will have a high cost in a trade. Also, in terms of fit Jones is a guy who can stretch the floor a bit, and Noel isn't at all.

I like the idea of picking up Jones. I like his game. Good fit. And if we don't need to trade Ross to add at PF I'd be happy not to. And as has been mentioned those two are best friends. Maybe good for both of them. And maybe Ross being here helps us get Jones.

[DanH]

I don't know. Raptors try to trade for Milsap around deadline but, word was they wanted JV in return. Im guessing they would still want the same.

Prices go down as you approach the end of a contract. I agree they ask that if they are blowing it up, but if they get Dwight and Horford, they might look for high end role players instead.

[The_Warlord]

That's a pretty competitive package for a 31 year old undersized PF

[Chr1s1anL]

Prices go down as you approach the end of a contract. I agree they ask that if they are blowing it up, but if they get Dwight and Horford, they might look for high end role players instead.

I dont see Horford coming back. It seems like Bazemore will get $20 mill a year.

[3inthekeon]

I like the idea of picking up Jones. I like his game. Good fit. And if we don't need to trade Ross to add at PF I'd be happy not to. And as has been mentioned those two are best friends. Maybe good for both of them. And maybe Ross being here helps us get Jones.

When was the last time you saw Jones play?

[jimmie]

That's a pretty competitive package for a 31 year old undersized PF

IF they trade Ross and stuff for Noel, it could signal a second move: JV out, Millsap in (and quite poss. Biz returning). Solves the problem of having to adjust the offense to address JV's growth at that end, for those concerned with Casey giving him more touches. The Noel trade doesn't make much sense otherwise; frees up cap space to do... something.

You shift your 5 position to one of primarily defense/rim protection, PnR on the other end, which is how the O is designed already. Biz and Noel can both do that well, and by all accounts, Poeltl is on his way there, too. You add Millsap at 4, who is a great floor-spacer, rebounder, and defender at PF.

Lowry/CoJo
DD/Powell
DC/MLE?
PM/PP
BB/NN

[ball4life]

IF they trade Ross and stuff for Noel, it could signal a second move: JV out, Millsap in (and quite poss. Biz returning). Solves the problem of having to adjust the offense to address JV's growth at that end, for those concerned with Casey giving him more touches. The Noel trade doesn't make much sense otherwise; frees up cap space to do... something.

You shift your 5 position to one of primarily defense/rim protection, PnR on the other end, which is how the O is designed already. Biz and Noel can both do that well, and by all accounts, Poeltl is on his way there, too. You add Millsap at 4, who is a great floor-spacer, rebounder, and defender at PF.

Lowry/CoJo
DD/Powell
DC/MLE?
PM/PP
BB/NN

Agree with everything but one. Noway Masai puts JV on the table for Milsap. May be for Jimmy Butler, but not for a one year aging rental.

[tDotted]

A while ago I hoped he could but I looked into his positional splits, and whenever he plays PF he's terrible and whenever he plays C he's great. I used a couple different references, and they all agreed, but here's 82games:

At C: -7.4 net rating, 21 PER (note that the 76ers as a whole had a -10 net rating)
At PF: -18.2 net rating, 12 PER

Ross for Noel doesn't make much sense for either side really

[jimmie]

Agree with everything but one. Noway Masai puts JV on the table for Milsap. May be for Jimmy Butler, but not for a one year aging rental.

I wouldn't put anything out of range if Ujiri thinks it has a chance to bring a title to Toronto. JV locked in at a good price over the next few years is worth little to Toronto if it's not adding Ws, and it's exactly what might make such a trade appealing for a team with a top-notch PF on the block.

If you really think Millsap is a needle-mover and you can make up for the loss of JV, you do that. I like Jonas and I think he'll be a great traditional low-block C in the league for a long time. But if moving him elsewhere pushes Toronto closer to the promised land NOW, while KL and DD are primed, you do that.

[DanH]

I wouldn't put anything out of range if Ujiri thinks it has a chance to bring a title to Toronto. JV locked in at a good price over the next few years is worth little to Toronto if it's not adding Ws, and it's exactly what might make such a trade appealing for a team with a top-notch PF on the block.

If you really think Millsap is a needle-mover and you can make up for the loss of JV, you do that. I like Jonas and I think he'll be a great traditional low-block C in the league for a long time. But if moving him elsewhere pushes Toronto closer to the promised land NOW, while KL and DD are primed, you do that.

But JV was, by WS, the third biggest contributor to wins on the team, in spite of playing the 8th most minutes on the team.

Millsap is a needle mover. But so is JV. You lose him, the needle moves in the wrong direction. Millsap makes up for that, but the net effect is not much needle moving at all.

[jimmie]

But JV was, by WS, the third biggest contributor to wins on the team, in spite of playing the 8th most minutes on the team.

Millsap is a needle mover. But so is JV. You lose him, the needle moves in the wrong direction. Millsap makes up for that, but the net effect is not much needle moving at all.

I don't know about that for sure (losing JV = step back or lateral). I 'understand' your numbers, but I don't think they are definitive or necessarily predictive. And to be clear, I'm not personally advocating for this strategy, just suggesting that on the basis of the Noel rumor, there could be something to it.

If it's a fit issue that requires significant changes in team strategy for JV to continue contributing to Raps at his max (ie. more touches or a shift to a post-oriented O) that could potentially reduce the value of your other players on whom you have invested a lot more money (DD/KL) and essentially built your team around, then you MAY be better off looking for a better fit that also allows you to upgrade a position of massive need -- guys like Biz, Noel seem ideal for the offense Toronto ran last year in terms of it maximizing their unique skillsets while alllowing the perimeter to essentially run the show...

[A.I]

Moving Noel really doesn't mean JV will be traded. It just means Biyombo won't be re-signed and the money will be spent on signing another player or 2.

[DanH]

I don't know about that for sure (losing JV = step back or lateral). I 'understand' your numbers, but I don't think they are definitive or necessarily predictive. And to be clear, I'm not personally advocating for this strategy, just suggesting that on the basis of the Noel rumor, there could be something to it.

If it's a fit issue that requires significant changes in team strategy for JV to continue contributing to Raps at his max (ie. more touches or a shift to a post-oriented O) that could potentially reduce the value of your other players on whom you have invested a lot more money (DD/KL) and essentially built your team around, then you MAY be better off looking for a better fit that also allows you to upgrade a position of massive need -- guys like Biz, Noel seem ideal for the offense Toronto ran last year in terms of it maximizing their unique skillsets while alllowing the perimeter to essentially run the show...

Wouldn't the Occam's Razor conclusion from the Noel rumour be that Biyombo is not coming back and Noel is replacing him?

Even with JV not contributing to his max, as you put it, he was the biggest contributor to wins on a per minute basis last season. There's no need to change anything. He's already tremendously valuable on the court. There is opportunity to make the team even better by using him in a bigger role, sure. And they should do that, it's a great idea. But if that absolutely can't happen, plan B shouldn't be to get rid of the guy. It should be to stick with what they have.

If a guy like Biz is ideal for the offence Toronto ran last year, why was the offence 5 points per 100 possessions worse with him than with JV? DD's on-court efficiency was about the same no matter what, while Lowry's TS% was up about 3% with JV versus without.

Biz is actually a terrible fit with the offence we want to run - he mucks up the paint much worse than JV does, and we need our guards to be able to get in there with space to operate.

[jimmie]

Moving Noel really doesn't mean JV will be traded. It just means Biyombo won't be re-signed and the money will be spent on signing another player or 2.

It doesn't mean either of those things FOR SURE. It could mean either of those things, POSSIBLY.

[jimmie]

Wouldn't the Occam's Razor conclusion from the Noel rumour be that Biyombo is not coming back and Noel is replacing him?

Even with JV not contributing to his max, as you put it, he was the biggest contributor to wins on a per minute basis last season. There's no need to change anything. He's already tremendously valuable on the court. There is opportunity to make the team even better by using him in a bigger role, sure. And they should do that, it's a great idea. But if that absolutely can't happen, plan B shouldn't be to get rid of the guy. It should be to stick with what they have.

If a guy like Biz is ideal for the offence Toronto ran last year, why was the offence 5 points per 100 possessions worse with him than with JV? DD's on-court efficiency was about the same no matter what, while Lowry's TS% was up about 3% with JV versus without.

Biz is actually a terrible fit with the offence we want to run - he mucks up the paint much worse than JV does, and we need our guards to be able to get in there with space to operate.

Again, I'm not advocating. I'm simply suggesting that this is a possible move for Ujiri IF he believes JV is in treadmill mode in this offense on this team. As you say, if they don't intend to change anything to make room for JV's development, then they should use him as an asset, absolutely. This is simply one option in that scenario.