The 2016 Offseason thread

[DanH]

Max roster size in the offseason is 20, so Raps are coming close to that (with 14 guaranteed guys and 5 camp invites).

[Sinbad]

There's a season preview from Jorge Sierra over at Hoopshype:

http://hoopshype.com/2016/08/23/nba-...ronto-raptors/

STAYING: Bruno Caboclo, DeMarre Carroll, DeMar DeRozan, Cory Joseph, Kyle Lowry, Lucas Nogueira, Patrick Patterson, Norman Powell, Terrence Ross, Jonas Valanciunas and Delon Wright.

ADDED: Drew Crawford (Bnei Herzliya), Yanick Moreira (Murcia), Jakob Poeltl (University of Utah), Pascal Siakam (New Mexico State), Jared Sullinger (Boston), Jarrod Uthoff (Iowa) and Fred VanVleet (Wichita State).

GONE: Bismack Biyombo (Orlando), James Johnson (Miami), Luis Scola (Brooklyn) and Jason Thompson.

STRENGTHS: Top-notch backcourt with All-Stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan … Both come off perhaps the best season of their NBA careers and will enter the 2016-17 in their prime … Same can be said about Lithuanian Jonas Valanciunas, an ultra effective center who may end up making the All-Star Game one day … Pretty good backups at most positions … Not hard to picture Cory Joseph starting at point guard for a bunch of clubs, for example … The nucleus of the team has been together for some time … Chemistry should remain pretty good … Terrific athleticism at the wing with DeRozan, Terrence Ross and Norman Powell … Powell had a very promising rookie year … He will be a player to watch out for this season … A healthier version of DeMarre Carroll will help the team, especially on the defensive end … They have added another offensive weapon in Jared Sullinger … Solid three-point shooting … They were No. 5 in shooting percentage from beyond the arc in 2015-16 … Above-average defensive and rebounding team … They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.

WEAKNESSES: Not the most creative offense in the league … They often rely a lot on DeRozan and Lowry catching fire … While there’s been some progress there, DeRozan is still not much of a threat from the three-point line … Ball movement will not remind anybody of the Golden State Warriors … They don’t score much on the break … Valanciunas is probably underutilized on the offensive end … Raptors had one of the best center duos in Valanciunas and Bismack Biyombo last season … That’s gone with Biyombo now in Orlando … Toronto could miss his intimidation and rebounding … They are now pretty thin at center behind Valanciunas unless Jakob Poeltl delivers right away … Power forward spot could use an upgrade … Could the wear-and-tear of National Team duty affect the performance of the team’s Big Three? … Star power is not up there with Cleveland’s.

PREDICTION: 2nd in the Atlantic Division, 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

So we can add him to the cavalcade of voices that are on the Celtics train. Speaking of whom, he did a Celtics preview too.

[Maury]

I wouldn't mind bringing back Jason Thompson as our 15th man if he is still available.

[Hotshot]

I wouldn't mind bringing back Jason Thompson as our 15th man if he is still available.

Give the minutes to Poeltl instead.

[Chr1s1anL]

Espn's RPM Projections

[S.R.]

Espn's RPM Projections

Haters gonna hate! They never learn. How did those regression projections turn out last year?

[Chr1s1anL]

Haters gonna hate! They never learn. How did those regression projections turn out last year?

It's funny how they always except us to regress even though we have one of the youngest rosters in the league lol

# ProveEm

[rocwell]

Fair projections. I agree with ESPN this time.

[slaw]

Fair projections. I agree with ESPN this time.

I have neither the time, patience or desire to parse the methodology but, on a quick glance, they have 3 teams in the entire league breaking 50 wins. That's........ odd. Seems like there is some downward adjustment going on that affects the top teams and drags them closer to 500. Doesn't seem realistic but I have no idea how they did last year....

[DanH]

I have neither the time, patience or desire to parse the methodology but, on a quick glance, they have 3 teams in the entire league breaking 50 wins. That's........ odd. Seems like there is some downward adjustment going on that affects the top teams and drags them closer to 500. Doesn't seem realistic but I have no idea how they did last year....

Yeah, it's centre-normalized due to the model predicting outliers will regress - while not predicting new outliers (which happen every year). As they say, they are expecting a step back from Lowry and DeMar. While also not expecting a similar step forward from guys like JV, Ross, CoJo, Powell...

[Maury]

Haters gonna hate! They never learn. How did those regression projections turn out last year?

I spy Boston in the spot ahead of us. Now that makes no sense. Why is Boston the team that the media picked to over hype!

[Chr1s1anL]

The only person I see maybe regressing is K Low. Than again players usually come back even better after Team USA experience. Everyone else is too young to regress.

[S.R.]

I spy Boston in the spot ahead of us. Now that makes no sense. Why is Boston the team that the media picked to over hype!

I've been pumping the Brad Stevens Celtics as much as the next guy, but the hype for this next season is over the top.

[Deino]

So if you think NBA writers are off on Raptors off-season assessment take a look at another one, SI own's grades:

NBA off-season grades
76ers: A
Celtics: A
Knicks: D
Nets: C-
Raptors: C


Toronto Raptors

Best Move: Keeping DeRozan home. This was kind of a no-brainer, and never even felt that up in the air, but the Raptors couldn't afford to lose DeRozan, who could very well end up as the most important player in franchise history. That’s some admittedly heavy conjecture, but what Toronto has accomplished with the trio of DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Masai Ujiri has been one of the NBA’s better success stories. His contract is huge, but points to stability within the franchise, and the team was predictably thrifty around him in adding free-agent Jared Sullinger and draftee Jakob Poeltl, who should both contribute to the frontcourt this season. Keeping Lowry at a fair price after the upcoming season, in which he’ll turn 31, might be trickier. — J.W.

Worst Move: Not signing LeBron James. The Raptors didn’t really do anything this summer. They let Bismack Biyombo walk, which made sense considering they'd already committed big money to Jonas Valanciunas. They’ve been near the top of the East for a few years, but like everyone else in this conference, are handcuffed by LeBron James's existence. Keeping DeMar DeRozan ensures the Raptors will be a playoff team in the East. There’s just not much more they can do after that. — R.N.

The Skinny: The Raptors threw the party of a lifetime during the 2016 playoffs, fighting through longstanding questions about their postseason resolve to advance to the Eastern Conference for the first time in franchise history. Then they woke up on July 1, saw the bill, and grimaced as they reached for the credit card.

Make no mistake, All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan had one heck of a contract year in 2015-16, logging big minutes and posting career numbers. DeRozan enjoyed numerous advantages in his negotiations with the Raptors: he had formed a strong relationship with the fan base over seven years in Toronto, he had struck up a deep friendship with fellow All-Star guard Kyle Lowry, his contract came due at the peak of Raptors-related excitement, and he displayed night-to-night dependability throughout the 2015-16 season after missing 20+ games due to injury the previous year. Raptors GM Masai Ujiri didn’t have much of a choice: he had to pay up to re-sign DeRozan or risk an immediate backlash among fans and within the locker room.
With all of that context in place, there’s still no way to characterize a five-year, $139 million contract for DeRozan as a great development for the organization. Indeed, as soon as DeRozan’s pen hit the paper he became one of the league’s highest-paid players—and perhaps its most overpaid. Is it possible for any guard with limited defensive impact, no three-point range and minimal skills as a playmaker to deliver on a $27 million per year contract? No, or at least not easily. Despite the rising salary cap and the fact that DeRozan gave the Raptors a slight hometown discount, a contract as large as this will crimp Ujiri’s ability to add premium talent going forward.

That handicap arguably commenced this summer, as the Raptors, with a payroll already topping $100 million, elected not to re-sign Bismack Biyombo. A key figure throughout Toronto’s postseason run, Biyombo played his way into a handsome deal with Orlando, leaving the Raptors to replace him on the depth chart with rookie Jakob Poeltl. The Austrian 7-footer seemingly represented good value at No. 9, but he will almost certainly need years of development to become an impact player. Toronto’s defense, as a result of the center swap, will almost certainly take a step back next season.
Ujiri’s only other noteworthy summer move aimed to address the power forward spot, a source of recurring stress in recent years. Toronto settled on signing Jared Sullinger to a one-year, $5.6 million contract, a classic “Let’s hope it works out, but we’re not screwed if it doesn’t” signing. Raptors coach Dwane Casey will welcome Sullinger’s rebounding skills and may also look to encourage the former Celtic’s desire to shoot from beyond the arc in hopes of generating space in the half-court.

The sum total here—more than doubling DeRozan’s salary, losing Biyombo, going sideways with Sullinger as a replacement for Luis Scola and James Johnson—is a definite step backwards. Even so, Toronto remains one of the East’s deepest teams and it will enjoy the benefits of strong continuity as it eyes another extended postseason run.

http://www.si.com/nba/2016/08/24/atl...ose-al-horford

[Chr1s1anL]

So if you think NBA writers are off on Raptors off-season assessment take a look at another one, SI own's grades:

NBA off-season grades
76ers: A
Celtics: A
Knicks: D
Nets: C-
Raptors: C


Toronto Raptors

Best Move: Keeping DeRozan home. This was kind of a no-brainer, and never even felt that up in the air, but the Raptors couldn't afford to lose DeRozan, who could very well end up as the most important player in franchise history. That’s some admittedly heavy conjecture, but what Toronto has accomplished with the trio of DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Masai Ujiri has been one of the NBA’s better success stories. His contract is huge, but points to stability within the franchise, and the team was predictably thrifty around him in adding free-agent Jared Sullinger and draftee Jakob Poeltl, who should both contribute to the frontcourt this season. Keeping Lowry at a fair price after the upcoming season, in which he’ll turn 31, might be trickier. — J.W.

Worst Move: Not signing LeBron James. The Raptors didn’t really do anything this summer. They let Bismack Biyombo walk, which made sense considering they'd already committed big money to Jonas Valanciunas. They’ve been near the top of the East for a few years, but like everyone else in this conference, are handcuffed by LeBron James's existence. Keeping DeMar DeRozan ensures the Raptors will be a playoff team in the East. There’s just not much more they can do after that. — R.N.

The Skinny: The Raptors threw the party of a lifetime during the 2016 playoffs, fighting through longstanding questions about their postseason resolve to advance to the Eastern Conference for the first time in franchise history. Then they woke up on July 1, saw the bill, and grimaced as they reached for the credit card.

Make no mistake, All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan had one heck of a contract year in 2015-16, logging big minutes and posting career numbers. DeRozan enjoyed numerous advantages in his negotiations with the Raptors: he had formed a strong relationship with the fan base over seven years in Toronto, he had struck up a deep friendship with fellow All-Star guard Kyle Lowry, his contract came due at the peak of Raptors-related excitement, and he displayed night-to-night dependability throughout the 2015-16 season after missing 20+ games due to injury the previous year. Raptors GM Masai Ujiri didn’t have much of a choice: he had to pay up to re-sign DeRozan or risk an immediate backlash among fans and within the locker room.
With all of that context in place, there’s still no way to characterize a five-year, $139 million contract for DeRozan as a great development for the organization. Indeed, as soon as DeRozan’s pen hit the paper he became one of the league’s highest-paid players—and perhaps its most overpaid. Is it possible for any guard with limited defensive impact, no three-point range and minimal skills as a playmaker to deliver on a $27 million per year contract? No, or at least not easily. Despite the rising salary cap and the fact that DeRozan gave the Raptors a slight hometown discount, a contract as large as this will crimp Ujiri’s ability to add premium talent going forward.

That handicap arguably commenced this summer, as the Raptors, with a payroll already topping $100 million, elected not to re-sign Bismack Biyombo. A key figure throughout Toronto’s postseason run, Biyombo played his way into a handsome deal with Orlando, leaving the Raptors to replace him on the depth chart with rookie Jakob Poeltl. The Austrian 7-footer seemingly represented good value at No. 9, but he will almost certainly need years of development to become an impact player. Toronto’s defense, as a result of the center swap, will almost certainly take a step back next season.
Ujiri’s only other noteworthy summer move aimed to address the power forward spot, a source of recurring stress in recent years. Toronto settled on signing Jared Sullinger to a one-year, $5.6 million contract, a classic “Let’s hope it works out, but we’re not screwed if it doesn’t” signing. Raptors coach Dwane Casey will welcome Sullinger’s rebounding skills and may also look to encourage the former Celtic’s desire to shoot from beyond the arc in hopes of generating space in the half-court.

The sum total here—more than doubling DeRozan’s salary, losing Biyombo, going sideways with Sullinger as a replacement for Luis Scola and James Johnson—is a definite step backwards. Even so, Toronto remains one of the East’s deepest teams and it will enjoy the benefits of strong continuity as it eyes another extended postseason run.

http://www.si.com/nba/2016/08/24/atl...ose-al-horford

Seems fair. Raptors really didnt do anything this summer.