Do we still have trust in Masai?

[DanH]

There's an ESPN draft projection model as well, which lists Poeltl as a safe pick with low upside but also has him with the third highest score in the class in terms of future value to a team.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...ojection-model

[Axel]

Kevin Pelton(ESPN Insider) had Poeltl ranked 5th behind Simmons, Bender, Ingram and Murray. Sorry, I don't have links on hand for every article I've read or tweet I've seen, but there have been a few.

Well you can't complain if people call out when you only provide a single source as evidence for "a lot" of sources.

It's a fair critique.

[Barolt]

Well you can't complain if people call out when you only provide a single source as evidence for "a lot" of sources.

It's a fair critique.

Now we're up to 4. Two separate projection systems from nyloncalculus, and two from ESPN. All ranking him highly.

[Axel]

Now we're up to 4. Two separate projection systems from nyloncalculus, and two from ESPN. All ranking him highly.

Which is a lot better than the one you initially provided that got called out on. I'm not disagreeing with your point (frankly not really paying attention to it either), just encouraging more sources if you want to prove your point.

[Mess]

Frankly any point regarding Mock Drafts will turn out moot eventually anyway. Should just call them Moot Drafts.

[Barolt]

Honestly, my biggest questions at this point have nothing to do with Masai. They're about whether or not Casey can show the offensive versatility as a coach to make use of these great assets he's been handed.

[Apollo]

Now we're up to 4. Two separate projection systems from nyloncalculus, and two from ESPN. All ranking him highly.

Are you including the ESPN top 40 rankings based on analytics in that two you mentioned? He's third on that list.


People also should consider how shocked they felt at the whole draft after the 9th pick onward. That feeling comes from the constant review of mock drafts written by sport writer who ultimately were all horribly wrong.

[3inthekeon]

This may or may not work, but

Player Projections
PLAYER ALL-STAR (%) STARTER (%) BENCH (%) BUST (%)
1. Brandon Ingram 25 24 26 26
2. Kris Dunn 18 21 34 26
3. Jakob Poeltl 12 32 41 16
4. Ben Simmons 25 20 20 35
5. Marquese Chriss 21 23 25 31
6. Jamal Murray 20 21 25 34
7. Deyonta Davis 7 29 43 21
8. Domantas Sabonis 10 30 31 29
9. Buddy Hield 14 14 42 30
10. Cheick Diallo 5 22 47 27
11. Jaylen Brown 8 21 34 38
12. Henry Ellenson 7 17 48 29
13. Chinanu Onuaku 5 20 43 31
14. Damian Jones 5 17 52 26
15. Diamond Stone 4 14 56 26
16. Skal Labissiere 2 20 49 29
17. Denzel Valentine 2 20 51 27
18. Marshall Plumlee 2 7 62 29
19. Jarrod Uthoff 1 20 42 38
20. Dejounte Murray 6 15 29 50

Here is last year with slightly different categories (superstar vs merely All star) from 538

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...a-draft-class/

[Barolt]

Are you including the ESPN top 40 rankings based on analytics in that two you mentioned? He's third on that list.


People also should consider how shocked they felt at the whole draft after the 9th pick onward. That feeling comes from the constant review of mock drafts written by sport writer who ultimately were all horribly wrong.

It's interesting in that projection that Poeltl ranks higher in every area than Sabonis except bust.

[DanH]

This may or may not work, but

Player Projections
PLAYER ALL-STAR (%) STARTER (%) BENCH (%) BUST (%)
1. Brandon Ingram 25 24 26 26
2. Kris Dunn 18 21 34 26
3. Jakob Poeltl 12 32 41 16
4. Ben Simmons 25 20 20 35
5. Marquese Chriss 21 23 25 31
6. Jamal Murray 20 21 25 34
7. Deyonta Davis 7 29 43 21
8. Domantas Sabonis 10 30 31 29
9. Buddy Hield 14 14 42 30
10. Cheick Diallo 5 22 47 27
11. Jaylen Brown 8 21 34 38
12. Henry Ellenson 7 17 48 29
13. Chinanu Onuaku 5 20 43 31
14. Damian Jones 5 17 52 26
15. Diamond Stone 4 14 56 26
16. Skal Labissiere 2 20 49 29
17. Denzel Valentine 2 20 51 27
18. Marshall Plumlee 2 7 62 29
19. Jarrod Uthoff 1 20 42 38
20. Dejounte Murray 6 15 29 50

Yeah, that's the one I was referring to.

[SkywalkerAC]

I predicted Delon Wright at 20 a month before last year's draft and haven't posted a 10th of the celebratory posts as you. No one is impressed Barry Horowitz.

Well, I admire your restraint.

🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗

[golden]

This may or may not work, but

Player Projections
PLAYER ALL-STAR (%) STARTER (%) BENCH (%) BUST (%)
1. Brandon Ingram 25 24 26 26
2. Kris Dunn 18 21 34 26
3. Jakob Poeltl 12 32 41 16
4. Ben Simmons 25 20 20 35
5. Marquese Chriss 21 23 25 31
6. Jamal Murray 20 21 25 34
7. Deyonta Davis 7 29 43 21
8. Domantas Sabonis 10 30 31 29
9. Buddy Hield 14 14 42 30
10. Cheick Diallo 5 22 47 27
11. Jaylen Brown 8 21 34 38
12. Henry Ellenson 7 17 48 29
13. Chinanu Onuaku 5 20 43 31
14. Damian Jones 5 17 52 26
15. Diamond Stone 4 14 56 26
16. Skal Labissiere 2 20 49 29
17. Denzel Valentine 2 20 51 27
18. Marshall Plumlee 2 7 62 29
19. Jarrod Uthoff 1 20 42 38
20. Dejounte Murray 6 15 29 50

Here is last year with slightly different categories (superstar vs merely All star) from 538

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...a-draft-class/

How does Ben Simmons have higher bust probability than most of the guys on that list? That model is busted.

[Barolt]

How does Ben Simmons have higher bust probability than most of the guys on that list? That model is busted.

It's not impossible that Simmons busts.

Didn't make the NCAA tournament, doesn't have a great jump shot, there's some motor questions.

[golden]

Frankly any point regarding Mock Drafts will turn out moot eventually anyway. Should just call them Moot Drafts.

Yeah. They're called Mocks for a reason - so we can mock them and realize that Chad Ford, Jay Bilas, internet basement dwellers, dartboards, NBA GMs and IBM supercomputers all have the same probability of projecting which draftee will be a good NBA player - all of which are higher than the Sacramento Kings. lol.

[Apollo]

It's not impossible that Simmons busts.

Didn't make the NCAA tournament, doesn't have a great jump shot, there's some motor questions.

Highly improbable though. Examples people like to dig up in regards to busts who were like him aren't really that much like him when you dig deep.