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Avery Bradley @ 13th (Update On Pg. 14)

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  • #31
    Tim W. wrote: View Post
    The more I read, the less and less excited I am about the 13th pick. There's really not much I'm liking down there. Bradley is a great defensive player who does not appear to have any PG skills whatsoever, and apparently doesn't create much off the dribble. He's mostly a jumpshooter, which is nice, but not exactly what the Raptors need. I think Bradley as good as anyone in that spot, but I don't think there's anyone you're going to regret taking down there.
    theres always stuff to be excited about no matter what pick you have.
    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

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    • #32
      LBF wrote: View Post
      theres always stuff to be excited about no matter what pick you have.
      Wait 15-20 years. Then tell me that again.
      Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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      • #33
        Avery Bradley

        I'm starting to have a good feeling about this kid with the 13th pick, not much of a passer but teamed with Turk could be useful.

        http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Avery-Bradley-5285/

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        • #34
          Perhaps the next Russell Westbrook? Certainly wouldn't mind picking this kid and trading one of either Jose or Jarrett for a wing. Kids got something we seriously lack, defense.
          "Don't expect anything unless you give everything."

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          • #35
            lanky, quick, plays D

            its almost too good to be true
            heres hoping we're not hyping him up too much

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            • #36
              BUMP
              so i can gloat
              called it first before phdsteve on the main page

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              • #37
                INFO wrote: View Post
                lanky, quick, plays D

                its almost too good to be true
                heres hoping we're not hyping him up too much
                Lanky, quick, plays D, doesn't drive to the basket, doesn't play PG, is only 6'2. Let's make sure we say the bad with the good.

                I have been looking back at the Russell Westbrook scouting reports and there are a lot of similarities. I was a big, big fan of Westbrook coming out, but I wasn't sure he would be a PG. He played off guard at UCLA and his passing and decision making was questioned. I didn't remember just how much. Westbrook, however, did play some PG at UCLA, something Bradley didn't really do at Texas.

                Both Westbrook and Bradley were undersized 2's who played lockdown defense, scored and were very athletic. Westbrook was much more of an attacker than Bradley, though, but Bradley is a much better shooter, so that could be the difference.

                Draftexpress.com recently wrote this about Bradley's recent workout, which does worry me some:

                Bradley was able to dominate constantly looking for his shot out of pick-and-rolls, but he didn’t really excel finding his teammates, something that wasn’t problematic here but did lead to some troubles at Texas this past season, as he’s prone to showing tunnel vision looking for his own shot. While it’s tough to take much concrete from these scrimmages, nothing we saw here suggested Bradley is yet ready to be a full-time point guard in the NBA, in line with what we saw from him all season.
                Bradley needs to show that he can pass the ball, because the difference between him getting drafted in the middle of the first round and late in the first round is going to be his ability to play PG. If teams feel he can't, there's no point in drafting him so high. Someone like Billups, who was also similar to Bradley coming out of Colorado, took four years (and 4 different teams) to make the switch to PG, and it was a full 9 (!!) years before he was able to average at least 6 assists per game.

                I don't think people appreciate just how difficult it is to turn someone into a PG. Westbrook is the exception. The vast majority fail to make the transition.
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                • #38
                  Tim, assuming we can't move Turkoglu, then Bradley would be a perfect fit for the Raptors. He can have tunnel vision all he wants because when Turk passes him the ball, he's expecting him to score. Leave the point responsibilities to Turk because that's what we're paying him for, and pay Bradley to be a PG-defender/scorer. A back-court of Bradley+Weems is perfect for a team centred around Hedo.

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                  • #39
                    Marz wrote: View Post
                    Tim, assuming we can't move Turkoglu, then Bradley would be a perfect fit for the Raptors. He can have tunnel vision all he wants because when Turk passes him the ball, he's expecting him to score. Leave the point responsibilities to Turk because that's what we're paying him for, and pay Bradley to be a PG-defender/scorer. A back-court of Bradley+Weems is perfect for a team centred around Hedo.
                    I think moving Turkoglu this summer will be extremely difficult, but I question the logic of drafting a 19 year old in order to compliment a 31 year old who may not even be in the starting lineup in a couple of years.
                    Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                    • #40
                      Tim W. wrote: View Post
                      I think moving Turkoglu this summer will be extremely difficult, but I question the logic of drafting a 19 year old in order to compliment a 31 year old who may not even be in the starting lineup in a couple of years.
                      I think the idea though would be that Bradley wouldn't have to take over a full-fledged point guard right away. As you said, that transition isn't easy (although it has become more en vogue in recent years), and just like you, I wouldn't be comfortable handing the keys to the offense to a kid who played 2 in college. Let him play off the ball on offense and utilize his abilities as a slasher and shooter while he gets used to the NBA game, and have him D up opposing point guards. Let Turk handle the majority of ball handling for this year and next, and then by the time he's out of the starting lineup, hopefully Bradley will have developed the savvy to play more of a pure point role.

                      Then again, that means we're handing the keys to a guy who was shit last year and acted like he couldn't care less. So the whole thing could be a very quick experiment if Hedo doesn't get it together, which would force Bradley into that pure point role too early.

                      We'll see what happens over the next month or so, but as things stand right now, I wouldn't be mad at Bradley being the pick at 13. I think we might be getting a little ambitious thinking about him in the starting lineup right away though. He's going to get picked lower than DeRozan, and like DeRozan, he's a one and done guy who is going to need some work. DeRozan was certainly nothing to write home about as a starter last year, so I think we may need to ease up on the expectations of immediate contributions from a 19 year old drafted at 13. It would be nice, but don't count on it.

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                      • #41
                        Avery Bradley Point Guard Stats

                        I decided to take a look at some key Point Guard stats for Bradley and compare them to the eight Point Guards drafted last season and the seven Point Guards that are considered a first or second round pick this season by Draft Express.

                        I culled for each player the following stats from 2009 for those Point Guards drafted in 2009 and from 2010 for those Point Guards listed in the Draft Express 2010 mock draft. In other words I took their college stats from the last year that they played in college.

                        1. Field Goals Attempted per game
                        2. Free Throws Attempted per game
                        3. Assists per game
                        4. Turnovers per game

                        From these numbers I computed the following ratios

                        5. Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game
                        6. Free Throws Attempted to Field Goals Attempted per game
                        7. Assists To Turnover Ratio

                        I then computed the average of the 15 players and where each player ranked in the seven categories listed above.


                        The Players that I looked at were

                        Player
                        ----------------
                        A. Bradley
                        Armon Johnson
                        D. Collison
                        E. Bledso
                        E. Maynor
                        J. Flynn
                        J. Holiday
                        J. Randle
                        J. Teague
                        J. Wall
                        M. Torrance
                        S. Collins
                        T. Douglas
                        T. Lawson
                        T.Evans

                        These are the average numbers for each of the seven stats culled and computed.

                        1. Field Goals Attempted per game - 11.7
                        2. Free Throws Attempted per game - 4.8
                        3. Assists per game - 4.6
                        4. Turnovers per game - 2.9
                        5. Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game - 39%
                        6. Free Throws Attempted to Field Goals Attempted per game - 41%
                        7. Assists To Turnover Ratio - 1.61

                        These are the Bradley's numbers for each of the seven stats culled and computed.

                        1. Field Goals Attempted per game - 10.8
                        2. Free Throws Attempted per game - 1.9
                        3. Assists per game - 2.1
                        4. Turnovers per game - 1.5
                        5. Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game - 19%
                        6. Free Throws Attempted to Field Goals Attempted per game - 18%
                        7. Assists To Turnover Ratio - 1.4

                        This is where Bradley ranked among the 15 Point Guards for each of the seven stats culled and computed.

                        1. Field Goals Attempted per game - 10
                        2. Free Throws Attempted per game - 14
                        3. Assists per game - 15
                        4. Turnovers per game - 1 (See Turnover Ratio)
                        5. Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game - 14
                        6. Free Throws Attempted to Field Goals Attempted per game - 15
                        7. Assists To Turnover Ratio - 10

                        Summary
                        -------------------------
                        Bradley ranked either 14th or 15th in four of the seven stats
                        He ranked 10th in two others
                        He ranked 1st; i.e. lowest in Turnovers

                        His average rank excluding Turnovers (see comment below) was 13 which was 15th among the 15 Point Guards.

                        Turnovers for a PG are best measured by looking at total assists per game, Assists to Field Goals Attempts per game and turnover ratio for a player.

                        A good true PG will have a high number of assists per game, a high ratio of Assists To Field Goal Attempts per game and a high Assists to Turnover Ratio.

                        In Bradley's case he had a low number of Turnovers per game but he also ranked 15th in Assists per game, 14th in Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game and 10th in Assists to Turnover Ratio.

                        What this means is that at least at Texas Bradley did not exhibit the qualities that one would want in a Point Guard. He exhibited a shoot first mentality. When he did shoot he very rarely was able to get to the free throw line and ranked dead last 15th in Free Throws Attempts per Field Goals Attempts.

                        As I have noted elsewhere Bradley's Free Throw percentage was an abysmal 55% about what Rondo's was in his last year at KY.

                        According to Draft Express
                        Another issues revolves around his inability to get high efficiency possessions around the basket in general. He’s scoring an incredibly poor 0.75 points per shot on shots around the basket according to Synergy, and in watching his game, it’s easy to see why. Bradley is often out of control on his drives to the basket and very rarely puts in much effort to create high percentage looks, rather trying to get close to the rim and then just throwing the ball in the general direction of it. On the bright side, Bradley does show an effective floater when he’s intently looking for it, and many of his problems attacking the basket are related to a careless mentality as opposed to lack of ability, though he will certainly have some limitations projecting to the pros given his lack of size and strength.
                        http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Avery-Bradley-5285/

                        Conclusion
                        -----------------
                        Bradley's did not in his one year at Texas put up numbers that a consistent with those of a Point Guard. Was that because of what he was asked to do while on the court; i.e. play SG and not PG. Let us assume that that is the case. Listed below are the comparative numbers for Jrue Holiday. Holiday played one season at UCLA. He played the SG position next to D. Collison who was the Bruins PG. This season however Jrue Holiday played PG for the 76ers so let us look at his numbers and ranking at UCLA.

                        1. Field Goals Attempted per game - 7.1
                        2. Free Throws Attempted per game - 1.8
                        3. Assists per game - 3.7
                        4. Turnovers per game - 2.1
                        5. Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game - 52%
                        6. Free Throws Attempted to Field Goals Attempted per game - 25%
                        7. Assists To Turnover Ratio - 1.8

                        This is where Holiday ranked among the 15 Point Guards for each of the seven stats culled and computed.

                        1. Field Goals Attempted per game - 15
                        2. Free Throws Attempted per game - 15
                        3. Assists per game - 11
                        4. Turnovers per game - 3 (See Turnover Ratio)
                        5. Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game - 4
                        6. Free Throws Attempted to Field Goals Attempted per game - 14
                        7. Assists To Turnover Ratio - 7

                        Average ranking was 11 or 13th among the 15th.

                        Listed below is Holiday's ranking this season as a rookie compared to the other 8 PG rookies listed above.

                        1. Field Goals Attempted per game - 5
                        2. Free Throws Attempted per game - 6
                        3. Assists per game - 5
                        4. Turnovers per game - 5 (See Turnover Ratio)
                        5. Assists to Field Goals Attempted per game - 3
                        6. Free Throws Attempted to Field Goals Attempted per game - 8
                        7. Assists To Turnover Ratio - 7


                        Holidays average rank in 2008-09 at UCLA excluding Turnovers was 11 which was 13th among the 15 Point Guards. Bradley was ranked 15th among the 15 Points Guards.

                        Who was ranked 14th? Answer. Eric Bledso.


                        Holiday like Bradley is considered a good defender so If you liked Jrue Holiday's game this season then you may wind up liking Avery Bradley's game in 2010-11 if he is asked to play PG.
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                        • #42
                          Just want to say I'm impressed by this post. Looks like it took a bit of work.

                          I like Holiday so this reinforces my liking of Bradley.
                          "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

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                          • #43
                            Impressive research. I'd like to see what the numbers for Russell Westbrook look like.

                            I wasn't a fan of Holiday at all, and while he has impressed on the defensive end, the jury's still out on whether or not he can play PG in the NBA. If he can't, he's going to bounce around the league.

                            I like Bradley's game a little more because he is a better scorer than Holiday. Holiday never seems to fit into any position at college, whereas Bradley at least play pretty well as a shooting guard.
                            Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                            • #44
                              The problem with letting Bradley play off the ball with the Raptors, is that he's not learning to play PG. Unless you immediately decide to make him a PG and allow him to play the position full time, you're killing ANY chance he has at making the transition. The few players who have made the transition started playing PG right from the start. Players who played both on and off the ball failed to make the transition. Playing PG is more a mentality, than anything, and the more you play off the ball, the more difficult it is to learn to run a team. Russell Westbrook was able to make the transition because the Thunder decided he was a PG, and made him play that position.

                              You either have to hand him the ball and live with the growing pains, or don't draft him at all.
                              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                              • #45
                                I think you need to compare him to (now)prominent PGs who were taken later in the draft based on potential. I mean no one said he was a beast right now, people are raving about his potential. Chances are if you're drafting mid to late in the draft you're not landing a guy who's going to hit the ground running.

                                Looks like you did a lot of work on this Buddahfan, very impressive. Just wanted to make sure i pointed that out.

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