# Thread: Raptors - With Johnson As A Starter Vs With Bosh As A Starter

1. ## Raptors - With Johnson As A Starter Vs With Bosh As A Starter

Saturday, May 29, 2010
Raptors - With Johnson As A Starter Vs With Bosh As A Starter

Keeping in mind that the number of games that Johnson started was only five here is a comparison of wins, losses, points scored per game and points given up per game.

With Bosh Starting
--------------------------
Wins 35 Losses 35
Points Per Game 104.1
Points Allowed Per Game 105.9
Points Per Game Differential -1.8

With Johnson Starting
----------------------------
Wins 3 Losses 2
Points Per Game 106.6
Points Allowed Per Game 103.4
Points Per Game Differential +3.2

Points Per Game Differential Johnson Starts vs Bosh Starts +5.0

http://nba-25-15.blogspot.com/2010/0...r-vs-with.html

2. Interesting, but what was the winning percentages of the opposition?

3. The sample is way too small for Johnson to make any conclusion.

Interesting, but what was the winning percentages of the opposition?

If you go to 82 games.com you will see how some of the five man pairings worked out when Bargs and Johnson were on the court together.

For example here are the calculated win and loss records from 82games.com for the top five in minutes units that included Johnson and Bargnani starting with the units with the most minutes and descending in minutes. I will just list their calculated won and loss records. The reader can go to the link for more information on these units and what five players comprised them.

Here are the top five in minutes Bargnani - Johnson Units Calculated W - L Records

8 – 4
10 – 4
7 – 4
7 – 5
9 – 5

http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR12.HTM

Now Here Are The Top Five In Minutes Bargnani - Bosh Units Calculated W - L Records

9 – 20
15 – 16
12 – 13
9 – 2
10 – 6

http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR12.HTM

Here are the top five in minutes Bosh – Johnson five man units

8 – 6
6 – 2
7 – 4
4 – 7
5 – 2

http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR13.HTM

Of the top ten in minutes units that Johnson was on with Bargnani or Bosh 9 out of 10 had a winning record as calculated by 82games.com. These numbers are taken from the detailed information from Bosh and Bargnani's five man units. I do not know how 82games.com arrives at their minutes or calculated won - loss record for each unit. I do know that 82games.com sells non publicly available stats that they compute so as far as I know the information on their site is reliable.

Now I will admit that Johnson played a number of his minutes alongside Bosh or Bargnani against second units but not all of them or nearly all of them.

So these stats seem to point out that the most effective five man units that the Raptors had last year had Bargnani paired with Johnson.

I wonder if BC will be taking this into consideration when he talks to Bosh and Johnson about signing this summer with the Raptors?

http://nba-25-15.blogspot.com/2010/0...breakdown.html

5. Wow, I never realised Johnson was a better player than Bosh

Wow, I never realised Johnson was a better player than Bosh
That is news to me too. If you don't tell anyone I won't

The whole point of this thread is just to voice my opinion that if Bosh leaves and Triano winds up starting Johnson with Bargnani (Word is that Johnson will stay with the Raptors) that the Raptors win - loss record next year will not go to sheet.

Of course it can be argued until November arrives which is probably not worth doing and in the end we will just have to wait and see how things actually turn out.

Bottom line, I am not nearly as pessimistic about the Raptors fortunes in 2010-11 if Bosh leaves or is traded as most Raptors fans are

We will just have to wait and see

7. Some reasons for these apparently weird numbers are

On defense we know that Bargnani is a fairly decent one on one defender against opposing centers however his team defense is pretty bad. Johnson does a much better job rotating and giving weak side help on defense than Bosh does. So when Bargnani and Johnson are paired together on defense Johnson helps to cover up some of Bargnani's weakness on defense that Bosh does not. This leads to the Raptors interior defense being better when Johnson is paired with Bargnani than when Bosh is paired with Bargnani.

On offense Johnson's game consists mostly of runs to the rim, rolls to the basket and setting very good screens. All of these three things he does better than Bosh. So when Johnson is on the court with Bargnani, Johnson tends to create more space for Bargnani to operate. Also, Johnson holds the ball for less time on offense than Bosh so the Raptors offense is more fluid when he plays. Of course he doesn't put up the numbers that Bosh does on offense but at what cost to the efficiency of the other 4 Raptors on the court does Bosh pile up his points?

8. I think another reason for the apparently weird numbers is that a lot of those games they played together were against really bad teams, if you recall.

9. Tim W. wrote:
I think another reason for the apparently weird numbers is that a lot of those games they played together were against really bad teams, if you recall.
Regarding the 82games.com numbers you are incorrect. Johnson played in all 82 games and Bargnani in 80 games. So they played together against everyone.

If you are referring to the starting numbers you are indeed correct that there was an imbalance of 2 games against playoff teams and three, of which they won 100% of the games against non-playoff teams.

The loss @ Atlanta was by only 6 points. In the game that Bosh started in Atlanta the Raptors lost by 31 points.

The one bad game that Johnson played of the five he started was unfortunately the most important one and that was against the Bulls. He just sucked that game. Then again there is only one Kobe

10. If only Johnson could stay on the court 30 minutes a night...we'd be Golden.

11. hateslosing wrote:
If only Johnson could stay on the court 30 minutes a night...we'd be Golden.
You got that right on both accounts

If only Johnson could stay on the court 30 minutes a night
we'd be Golden.
Its really time that he got his sheet together on this foul issue.

12. Buddahfan,

In your Bosh-Johnson comparison, you ignore the fact that Amir has never seen a double team in the NBA, while Bosh deals with them all the time. To say Johnson could produce like Bosh while facing more help defenders and more attention is exhibit A on the dangers of using stats in a vaccuum.

you need to look at the stats and then think reasonably about some of the reasons. Amir is solid (and quite possibly my favorite raptor), but nowhere close to producing at Bosh's level if put in the same position and role.

i'd love to see Amir catch the ball in the post while guarded by Garnett, as Pierce, Rondo or Perkins swarm on double and triple teams... since that's what happens to Bosh.

13. Dan wrote:
Buddahfan,

In your Bosh-Johnson comparison, you ignore the fact that Amir has never seen a double team in the NBA, while Bosh deals with them all the time. To say Johnson could produce like Bosh while facing more help defenders and more attention is exhibit A on the dangers of using stats in a vaccuum.

you need to look at the stats and then think reasonably about some of the reasons. Amir is solid (and quite possibly my favorite raptor), but nowhere close to producing at Bosh's level if put in the same position and role.

i'd love to see Amir catch the ball in the post while guarded by Garnett, as Pierce, Rondo or Perkins swarm on double and triple teams... since that's what happens to Bosh.
1. You are wrong about Johnson not being double teamed. Because he is so incredibly proficient at rolling to the rim, catching ball and then finishing he has been double teamed on this with weak side help quite a bit. He even gets double teamed without the ball. Just his act of rolling to the basket has drawn double teams because once he gets the ball down low he rarely if ever misses, 70% FG% from in close and 96% FG% on dunks last season. Howard by comparison was only 55% and 96% last season. I am not saying that Johnson is as good as Howard on offense yet but when Johnson gets his hands on the ball down low rolling to the rim he is even more effective at finishing than Howard is and Johnson does not drop a lot of passes that come his way. Hence the need for teams to double team when he rolls to the basket in order to try and prevent him from catching any passes that might come his way. This has the effect of leaving the other Raptors playing 4 on 3 when he rolls to basket if he is double teamed.

http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR9.HTM

2. Johnson doesn't need to duplicate Bosh's scoring. The stats of the Raptors success when Johnson is on the court speak for themselves. Johnson makes everyone else on the court with him better because of the way he plays. Bosh does not do this. Bosh on offense is catch hold the ball for 10 seconds and then he either drives to the basket or takes a fall away jump shot while everyone else stands around waiting for him to make a decision. He gets his numbers but at what cost?

Bosh does not run to rim on fast breaks.

On defense the comparison is not even close except for actual defensive rebounding where Bosh has an edge. But as far as their affect on the Raptors overall defense it isn't even close. All the stats have shown for the last three years including this year that when Johnson is on the court his team's defense is vastly superior to when he is off the court. The same cannot be said for Bosh.

14. In terms of double-teams, that's not even similar to the stuff Bosh has thrown at him. Yes, Amir's D is better than Bosh, no question, but give me a break - the man has never once gotten the ball in the post and seen a double team. Never.

When Bosh is on a roll or the rest of the team is struggling, he sees nothing but immediate doubles and triples the very second he catches the ball.

I'm all for a fair debate between Bosh and Amir's credentials, but there is no way to reasonably suggest they've faced the same level of defense or specific gameplanning by opposing coaches. Amir often catches teams by surprise, while they've clearly planned for Bosh and analyzed every little part of his game.

I would hope that despite your love for Amir, you would at least concede that.

15. Dan wrote:
In terms of double-teams, that's not even similar to the stuff Bosh has thrown at him. Yes, Amir's D is better than Bosh, no question, but give me a break - the man has never once gotten the ball in the post and seen a double team. Never.

When Bosh is on a roll or the rest of the team is struggling, he sees nothing but immediate doubles and triples the very second he catches the ball.

I'm all for a fair debate between Bosh and Amir's credentials, but there is no way to reasonably suggest they've faced the same level of defense or specific gameplanning by opposing coaches. Amir often catches teams by surprise, while they've clearly planned for Bosh and analyzed every little part of his game.

I would hope that despite your love for Amir, you would at least concede that.
Let me be clear. I am not saying that Johnson is a better player than Bosh is simply because Johnson has not shown that he can stay on the court.

However, contrary to what you are saying the Raptors overall offense is at least as effective with Johnson on the court as it is with Bosh on the court. Last time I checked basketball is a five man game both on offense, even if you have Kobe or Lebron, and a five man game on defense.

The five man stats from 82 games.com that I posted at the beginning of this thread speak for themselves.

If you are saying that Bosh has a more positive effect on the Raptors offense simply because he is double teamed more often than Johnson that seems to me to be a very weak argument.

Can you honestly say that Bosh who can not pass very effectively out of a double team or refuses to more often than not is a good thing for the Raptors offense?

Look Bosh has proven himself to be a great double double guy and Johnson still has trouble staying on the floor because of foul trouble. Johnson still has a very limited game on offense. This is all very true but when Johnson has been able to stay on the court, which he did except for one game in the five that he started he proved extremely effective and his game on both sides of the ball is only going to get better with more coaching and more minutes.

Bosh's game has in my opinion has basically peaked. On top of that Bosh has at least one bad knee and has never played in all 82 games in any of his seven years in the league. So yes a guy may be very good but what good does it do the team if he misses 10 or more games almost every year. Almost as much good as Johnson does with his foul problem.

I am still not convinced that Johnson has solved his foul problem so to that extent I will still admit that Bosh for that reason and the fact that he is a better defensive rebounder and jump shooter is still better than Johnson.

However the point of this whole thread as I have already mentioned was to show that the numbers show that if Bosh leaves and Johnson starts in his place and can stay on the court that the Raptors may not be nearly as bad as everyone thinks just because Bosh leaves. Yes they may be worse or maybe not but I don't think replacing Bosh with Johnson will result in a a team that wins under 35 games and it could even win over 41 games depending on the other pieces and the improvement of DeRozan and Weems.

16. Buddahfan,

I'm not arguing that the Raptors are more effective with Bosh than with Johnson.

I'm saying we've never seen Johnson's ability/inability to handle steady double teams, because he's never faced them at the professional level. Meanwhile, this is a normal occurrence for Bosh - good teams run a second or third guy at him all game long.

I'm interested to see how Johnson will do if he continuously beats his man 1-on-1, leading to double teams when he catches the ball in the post.

That's a whole different ballgame.

17. Dan wrote:
Buddahfan,

I'm not arguing that the Raptors are more effective with Bosh than with Johnson.

I'm saying we've never seen Johnson's ability/inability to handle steady double teams, because he's never faced them at the professional level. Meanwhile, this is a normal occurrence for Bosh - good teams run a second or third guy at him all game long.

I'm interested to see how Johnson will do if he continuously beats his man 1-on-1, leading to double teams when he catches the ball in the post.

That's a whole different ballgame.
Johnson is never in my opinion going to be the #1 scoring option on any team that he plays for and probably not even the #2 scoring option though that might some day be possible.

So it is highly unlikely that Johnson will ever get double teamed like Bosh does.

In addition most of Johnson's scoring comes when he is facing the basket, from which it is very difficult to double team a player. Double teams come on guys that post up and get the ball on the wing. They can also come on the pick and roll which Johnson could some day be subject to.

The point is, is that even if Johnson some day winds up averaging 15 - 20 a game on offense which I think would be his maximum ceiling I doubt that he will ever get double teamed a lot.

Johnson's advantage over Bosh is that he plays better defense, especially help defense, he does a better job off of the offensive glass and the ball on offense does not die with him like it does with Bosh.

There games are very very different and they benefit their teams in totally different ways.

Bosh is your prototypical 22-24 - 11-12 big man with average to slightly below average defense.

I see Johnson eventually as a 17 - 8 guy with possibly an all nba defense team award even if only on the third team but it could be higher. All of this provided that he can favorably resolve his foul problem