New Jersey - Land of Promise

[YKOil]

One interesting scenario:

BC sells Bosh on New Jersey and Prokhorov on Bosh.

Bosh
FOR
NJN 2010 1st and NJN 2012 1st and NJN 2014 1st (this one being lotto protected) and trade exception

BC then sells Philadelphia on this trade:

Calderon, Bellinelli and Bosh trade exception
FOR
PHI 2010 1st, Brand and Dalembert

Calderon is used here because Philly won't want Turks (imo).

Given that Turks is gone the non-expiring veterans left on this team amount to Jack and Bargnani with Weems and DeRozan representing the young gun shooting guards.

If the draft picks are used to get Turner and Favors, and Favors is switched to the 5 then the new roster would look like this:

PG Jack, Banks (EXP)
SG Weems / DeRozan
SF Turner
PF Bargnani, Brand, Evans (EXP)
.C Dalembert (EXP), Favors

Amir Johnson, the TOR 1st and TAGFT (The-Asset-Gained-For-Turks) are the unknown quantities. Brand is one who sticks out here (sore thumb and all that) so BC has to work to trade him (probably won't happen until 2012-13) but Dalembert, Evans and Banks all represent decent trade chips at the deadline.

This is, basically, a full team re-set for the Raps but there is some real talent on that roster - PG is weak so making a hard play for Collison (New Orleans) would be the move to make.

Why might Philly do this? Well over $50 million saved. That's why.

Why might Bosh go to New Jersey? Because they don't lose any known assets in this trade, Lopez is the C he has always dreamed of playing with and Prokhorov is willing to spend to build a winner (so maybe Johnson heads to Jersey as well).

[EDIT TO ADD] Bonus deal:

Dalembert & Evans
FOR
Collison, Okafor & Posey

Toronto eats major salary but gets their PG in Collison.

[Ripp]

There is no chance in hell NJ gives up their first round pick in a S/T. Read Doug Smith's blog for the return he thinks Chicago "might" be convinced to give back...it is much, much lower than that.

[YKOil]

I assure you - for any of the big three names (James, Wade, Bosh) - New Jersey's 1st is in play.

ESPECIALLY if they don't have to give up Lopez or Harris. There are only four flaws in the trade suggested:

1. New Jersey isn't on the list
2. The trade exception is of dubious value if the Philly trade isn't consumated
3. With no players coming from Jersey it seems a little cheap from their end
4. I kinda doubt that 2012 1st rounder would be unprotected as well

The Nets would NOT have traded Wall. But Favors? He could be had.

[YKOil]

To be fair to what you are saying Ripp:

The odd thing that has occurred, imo, is that the Nets didn't jump at the chance to secure that 2nd pick at the cost of assuming Brand's contract.

The Nets could offer the same trade exception to Philly and even have a extra 1st round pick to throw in (#27) so why not:

DAL 2010 1st and TE
FOR
Brand & PHI 2010 1st

A core of Harris, Turner, Favors & Lopez is impressive when viewed as a starting point.

[Ripp]

Guys....Mikhail Prokhorov is not an idiot. Why would he give away more than he has to? You don't get to 16 billion dollars by overpaying. He can turn that 3rd pick into several assets, and use some of them in a S/T. Or he could send out TWill, etc.

Pissing away a 3rd overall pick in a S/T assumes that the other party is an idiot. Isiah Thomas is no longer GMing in the NBA, and unfortunately the Nets are not run by Bryan Colangelo. So there will be no amazing deals to be had..

[Marz]

I disagree Ripp. The draft is always considered a gamble, and high risk. With Bosh you know exactly what you're getting. If you draft Favors you're waiting on him to develop and need to give him minutes to do that. Prokhorov has already said he wants this team competing as soon as possible.

However I find it unlikely the Nets would trade two picks, and I'm not sure if they can either (I think there's a rule against trading away draft picks in consecutive years). And while the Nets remain a possible destination, sending Bosh there could result in us facing him in the playoffs a la Vince Carter.

[Ripp]

You still need a 3rd big. Favors is going to be better than any MLE sort of guy. Run a 3 big rotation of Bosh, Lopez and Favors.

The point is, you can acquire CB w/o giving up your #3 pick. You could send other assets. Or split that #3 pick into several other assets, and send some of them in a S/T. There is absolutely no reason to overpay.

Regarding playoffs....Raps realistically won't make the playoffs for the next 3-4 years anyway, so what does it matter?

[hateslosing]

Fully agree with Marz

I could see the Nets sending over this years first rounder and a trade exception, but not two other first rounders with it. Prokhorov said he wants to compete now so I could see him doing this. The thing here is getting Bosh to agree to go out there. It's actually a good situation for him, he would be with a great center in Lopez and a good guard with Devin Harris and I think that team would make the Playoffs next year.

The worst part about this is that it put's Bosh in the same devision as us, which means we have to play him 4 times. That could be bad.

[Ripp]

I'm not trying to be an ass when I say this. But given that Doug Smith (an MLSE mouthpiece) thinks that a package centered around Taj Gibson + James Johnson is the likely return of a S/T of Bosh going to Chicago, then why would NJ send back the #3 overall pick?

I don't think you guys have any sense of how much such a high pick is worth. Try to reason as the rival GM...why would you send back the #3 pick if Chicago is allowed to send back much less? Even if you think that the #3 pick isn't a big deal, it kind of is. He could grab the equivalent of picks #10 through 15 with the #3 (roughly speaking.) So why send back more than the bare minimum needed to get the deal done?

Common sense is required with any sort of deal evaluation, and suggesting that the #3 pick goes back violates common sense.

[Bendit]

Guys....Mikhail Prokhorov is not an idiot. Why would he give away more than he has to? You don't get to 16 billion dollars by overpaying. He can turn that 3rd pick into several assets, and use some of them in a S/T. Or he could send out TWill, etc.

Pissing away a 3rd overall pick in a S/T assumes that the other party is an idiot. Isiah Thomas is no longer GMing in the NBA, and unfortunately the Nets are not run by Bryan Colangelo. So there will be no amazing deals to be had..

Pro sports is littered with very successful businessmen who somehow get soft in the brain when it comes to "the chase" ....winning a championship, bragging rights, being the pretend gm etc etc. This is an often discussed conundrum and supreme irony. Now, this is not to say that Mr. P would do as is being suggested. His best move so far has been retaining an old hand (Rod Thorn) who probably will continue to make the important bb descisions....until P succumbs in the next few years and starts to meddle as many end up doing. The Mavs, Cavs, Knicks, Kings, GSW, Clippers, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Lightning etc etc are some examples of successful businessmen owners who are known meddlers in personnel to their team's detriment (caveat...some of above still make money inspite of).

[Marz]

I don't think you guys have any sense of how much such a high pick is worth. Try to reason as the rival GM...why would you send back the #3 pick if Chicago is allowed to send back much less?

Who said Chicago is allowed to send anything? The reality is there are three people that need to agree to a sign and trade: Chris Bosh, Bryan Colangelo, and the third team. Just because the trade works for Chris Bosh and the NJN, doesn't mean BC will pull the trigger.

Here's an example:

BC: "Sorry, not good enough for me. I'd rather trade you to the Lakers for Bynum"

Bosh: "Sure, Lakers work for me"

And now the Nets are left in the dust, all because they left out the #3 pick? The point is BC will take the best package available, and if New Jersey doesn't send back something that is MORE COMPETITIVE than other teams, screw them, I'll trade with someone else.

Any trades involving New York or New Jersey have to take into consideration the fact that they're in the same division, so their offers have to be more competitive than others if they really want Bosh.

[Raptorsss]

The only place I want Dalembert to play is in the D-league.

[Tim W.]

First of all, no one seems to remember that the draft is before free agency even starts. The Raptors aren't getting any 2010 picks for Bosh unless they are able to get a time machine.

And New Jersey doesn't need to include Favors (if that's who they draft) in order to be competitive trying to get Bosh. They could simply include a couple of future picks and one of their young wings. That, as well as the trade exception the Raptors would get, is as good a package as anyone will probably offer.

Yes, the draft is a gamble, but so is the NBA. You just never know what is going to happen. New Jersey doesn't have to win now, so drafting Favors might be the smarter move for them.

[Ripp]

.

Who said Chicago is allowed to send anything? The reality is there are three people that need to agree to a sign and trade: Chris Bosh, Bryan Colangelo, and the third team. Just because the trade works for Chris Bosh and the NJN, doesn't mean BC will pull the trigger.

Here's an example:

BC: "Sorry, not good enough for me. I'd rather trade you to the Lakers for Bynum"

Bosh: "Sure, Lakers work for me"

And now the Nets are left in the dust, all because they left out the #3 pick? The point is BC will take the best package available, and if New Jersey doesn't send back something that is MORE COMPETITIVE than other teams, screw them, I'll trade with someone else.

Any trades involving New York or New Jersey have to take into consideration the fact that they're in the same division, so their offers have to be more competitive than others if they really want Bosh.

Bryan Colangelo can certainly refuse a S/T that leaves the Raps worse off than Bosh walking for nothing. But any S/T to a team below the cap leaves the Raps better off, since they'll get a TPE and some positive assets. So if Colangelo tries to hold up such a deal, Bosh can rightly utilize some fairly easy mechanisms to get what he wants anyway.

He could announce a press conference saying he is signing with them on day one, and then let BC know that he is deadset on going to NJ. BC can bluster as much as he likes, but will be forced to make a deal...simply because getting something is better than nothing. And if you tell me some spiel about BC standing tough on "principle", then I'll just bring to your attention the fact that BCs contract was not extended, he has been walked on in the past by many players (including Hedo, most recently), and that he will be immediately fired if Bosh walks for nothing.

Anyway, none of this is likely to happen, because Colangelo does not have the stones to restrict Bosh's choices in any way (unless of course a deal would send back negative assets, something no other team would suggest anyway.) But if he tries, there are certainly countermeasures available...

[Ripp]

One additional comment. I like Chris Bosh, he is probably my favorite player in the league. But Amare can probably be had for the 5 year max. All the Suns might want back in a S/T is TWill and a TPE.

So the question is, is Bosh + TWill better than Amare + #3 overall pick?

I'd much rather have the latter.

Or a guy like Boozer or David Lee, they might require even less back. Is David Lee + #3 Pick + TWill really worse than just Bosh+Twill?

This is why I keep saying you have to try to understand things from all sides. And it is clear to me that you are only choosing one of the three sides to understand..