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Thread: Overvaluing Amir & Sonny - Keeping Expectations in Check

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    Raptors Republic Rookie da_goose09's Avatar
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    Default Overvaluing Amir & Sonny - Keeping Expectations in Check

    From the way some people are acting on this site, it would seem that the Raptors franchise as a whole rests Amir & Sonny's shoulders. Now I realize that both played well down the stretch of the season ("well" being relative to how they normally play) but to expect either of these guys to be any more than role players on this team is probably unrealistic.

    I love the game of both of these guys, but I just feel that expectations are being set far too high for these two young and promising players.

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    I don't think expectations (for most) are out of control. It's just that people are searching for things to be optimistic about after a disappointing season, and Amir and Weems both are young players who have the potential to get better. I don't believe anyone thinks the team future rests on their shoulders, but they are, hopefully, a part of that future.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Raptorsss's Avatar
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    If they continue to develop and help us win games, I'm happy with that.

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    Nobodys saying the franchise rests on their shoulders. Most people are saying just what you said there two young, promising players. Most people like these guys cuz they bring it on the defensive end. I dont think Amir should get paid starter money this summer because hes a backup at this point in his career but he does have potential to be a starter if he bulks up and is able to play low post defense on much bigger PFs. As for Weems, obviously he has to cut down on turnovers and improve his shot.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    I think improvement in Weems' shot selection is more important than how he's shooting the ball at this point.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I think improvement in Weems' shot selection is more important than how he's shooting the ball at this point.
    Weems shot over 50% from the field. I don't remember his shot selection being noticeably bad. Ball handling and extending the range of his shot are probably what he needs to focus on the most.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Weems shot over 50% from the field. I don't remember his shot selection being noticeably bad. Ball handling and extending the range of his shot are probably what he needs to focus on the most.
    Interesting enough Weems PER (Which is total offense stat) was only 12.9 and his offense rating was only 104.

    Compare to say DeRozan whose PER was only 12.5 and offense rating only 110.

    It just seems to me that offensively Weems' and DeRozan's performances
    last seems were pretty close their their games on offense are not quite the same in style.


    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...weemsso01.html
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Interesting enough Weems PER (Which is total offense stat) was only 12.9 and his offense rating was only 104.

    Compare to say DeRozan whose PER was only 12.5 and offense rating only 110.

    It just seems to me that offensively Weems' and DeRozan's performances
    last seems were pretty close their their games on offense are not quite the same in style.


    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...weemsso01.html
    I don't think I have a clue what you are talking about.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Weems shot over 50% from the field. I don't remember his shot selection being noticeably bad. Ball handling and extending the range of his shot are probably what he needs to focus on the most.
    I said he needs to work on shot selection, not his shot. He shoots it well and I'm not denying that but unfortunately stat sheets don't come with pictures and so all I can tell you is that I've seen him chuck up some bad shots. He needs to cut down on those.

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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Weems shot over 50% from the field. I don't remember his shot selection being noticeably bad. Ball handling and extending the range of his shot are probably what he needs to focus on the most.
    Extending the range is a must.
    He cannot be effective in this league without being able
    to hit 3's.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    I don't think I have a clue what you are talking about.
    My post was in response to the quote on my post, specifically the 50%. I was pointing out that those two stats; i.e., the PER and Offense Rating show that neither Weems no DeRozan had very good advanced numbers on offense.

    So if you think that advanced numbers in analyzing a basketball player's performance are meaningful then you would conclude their neither DeRozan nor Weems were very good on offense last season despite the fact that both shot close to 50% from the field.

    By contrast Bosh's numbers were PER of 25.0 and Offense Rating of 117.
    Bargnani's numbers were PER of 15.5 and Offense Rating of 108 which shows that he was even only average at best on offense.

    Of course if you only believe in the simple numbers than you will probably think that DeRozan, Weems and Bargnani were all above average on offense, which the advanced numbers show that they were not.

    That should be clear enough
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Fri Jun 4th, 2010 at 08:23 PM.
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    Quote dn66 wrote: View Post
    Extending the range is a must.
    He cannot be effective in this league without being able
    to hit 3's.
    That's necessarily true, especially on a team that already has a bunch of three point shooters. It all depends on the kind of player he wants to be. I can list some forwards who don't shoot the three but are effective on offense by slashing, moving without the ball and being able to hit the mid-range jumper. Josh Smith, Shaun Marion are two of the extreme cases for forwards. Deng, Grant Hill and Maggette are examples of players who typically won't shoot on average more than one a game. It no doubt would be nice for him to have it but I'd much rather see him hone his game in the post and slashing and shooting in traffic. The team really needs it and he would find himself getting more minutes and more plays celled for him if he could do that stuff.

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    Rip Hamilton who has been one of the best SG's in the league on offense for the last decade has a career 3 point FG% of only .343.

    He has had made only 442 three point goals in his career in 788 games.

    The Pistons got to the ECF I believe six years in a row with Hamilton being their leading scorer over that period.

    It would be a lot more advantageous to the Raptors if Weems and DeRozan significantly improved their defense rather than improve their shooting range but not improve their defense. Doing both of course would be very nice but as Hamilton's numbers show you don't need your SG to shoot well with high volume from behind the arc and make a lot three point goals.

    In fact over that same period in which the Pistons got to the ECF six years in a row Prince was their SF. His career 3 point FG% is .370 and he has made just 405 three point goals in 583 career games.

    In the end you win with defense

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...hamilri01.html
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Fri Jun 4th, 2010 at 08:37 PM.
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Interesting enough Weems PER (Which is total offense stat) was only 12.9 and his offense rating was only 104.

    Compare to say DeRozan whose PER was only 12.5 and offense rating only 110.

    It just seems to me that offensively Weems' and DeRozan's performances
    last seems were pretty close their their games on offense are not quite the same in style.


    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...weemsso01.html
    Both need to develop some three point range and get to the foul line more to get their ORats up. Demar is well on his way to becoming a menace at the free throw line. Meanwhile, Sonny certainly shows 3point potential based on his already silky midrange jumper.

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    I don't think they necessarily need to develop three point range, but to be able to extend their range out to 20 feet or so I think is important. A good outside shot would help guys like Weems and DeRozan because of their slashing ability. Hamilton is a great shooter, just not a great 3 point shooter, but he also never stops moving. Hes not creating a lot of shots off the dribble. A big part of DeRozan's game will probably be creating off the dribble, and being a threat from outside (whether or not thats 20 feet or 25 feet) would help him immensely.

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    Regardless of what your offensive game consists of unless it is just chucking them up from the cheap seats, and even then, the more you can get to the foul line the better. Even if your free throw shooting rate is not say 80% or better drawing fouls especially if it is against your opponents starters is a good thing to be able to do.
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    I don't think they necessarily need to develop three point range, but to be able to extend their range out to 20 feet or so I think is important. A good outside shot would help guys like Weems and DeRozan because of their slashing ability. Hamilton is a great shooter, just not a great 3 point shooter, but he also never stops moving. Hes not creating a lot of shots off the dribble. A big part of DeRozan's game will probably be creating off the dribble, and being a threat from outside (whether or not thats 20 feet or 25 feet) would help him immensely.
    Agreed somewhat, but really, if you've developed a good 20 footer (probably the lowest percentage shot in basketball), you might as well step back a couple feet beyond the arc and sacrifice a couple raw FG% points for a boost where it matters .. in TS%.

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    Quote Brasky wrote: View Post
    Agreed somewhat, but really, if you've developed a good 20 footer (probably the lowest percentage shot in basketball), you might as well step back a couple feet beyond the arc and sacrifice a couple raw FG% points for a boost where it matters .. in TS%.
    What u say may not be true.

    It is like lifting weights. There is a limit for each individual.

    Every basketball player has a limit on their range from a practical point of view. Some guys like Perkins could spend 8 hours a day shooting three point shots and I seriously doubt that his TS% would be greater shooting those than what it is now when almost all of his shots are from within 10 feet and the majority from withing 5 feet.
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    What u say may not be true.

    It is like lifting weights. There is a limit for each individual.

    Every basketball player has a limit on their range from a practical point of view. Some guys like Perkins could spend 8 hours a day shooting three point shots and I seriously doubt that his TS% would be greater shooting those than what it is now when almost all of his shots are from within 10 feet and the majority from withing 5 feet.
    All I'm saying is that, all things being equal, long 2 pointers are statistically the worst shot you can take in the NBA, and a respectable 3point shot is something to strive for if you're a SG in this league like DD and Sonny. Using Perkins as an example makes no sense whatsoever, since he already only takes high percentage shots right near the rim.

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