Some thoughts and predictions on the 09/10 version of Raptors versus the 06/07 version:
All numbers provided below come from 82games.com
First, I compared the Rolland Rating (Sum and Average team rating) for the team in 06 and 09. I did not include Mensah-Bonsu's rating in 09 since itís at 26% and this rating came from less than 5 minutes of court time this year.
06 Raptors Rolland Rating Sum=-56 Average=-3.29
09 Raptors Rolland Rating Sum=-60.2 Average=-4.63
Although these numbers seem very similar the difference is very alarming. The reasons behind my alarm is because our PER (Hollinger) from 06 totaled 3.6. The PER total this year is at 0. Our strongest position (PF - Bosh) in 06 was at +0.7 this year is at -1.3. In 06 Bosh missed 13 games. If he were to miss 13 games this year it means that we do not have enough production from the backups to even come close to 0 PER in 09. Now take into account the Rolland Rating from a team perspective and use the average to subtract wins for this season from the 06-07 totals. The number is 2 less wins. Factor a Bosh injury (10% of the schedule) and you need to reduce the total wins by another 5. A reserved total for this season should be around 40 to 41 wins which maybe will be enough to get the Raptors in the playoffs. An optimistic look would be 45 wins that might get us in 6th or 7th place.