Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: Raptors: Two Terrifying Situations

  1. #1
    Administrator Dr. James Naismith's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Almonte
    Posts
    4,054
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default Raptors: Two Terrifying Situations

    Great read courtesy of Dave from "NBA Roundtable".

    Dave discusses two terrifying situations which pertain to the Raptors future:

    * Benching Bargnani
    * Sign and Trade Chris Bosh

    Bench Bargnani

    Firstly, let me get this out of the way, I fully agree that benching Bargnani will make the Raptors a better basketball team. Those who’ve read my thoughts on Bargnani in the past know why I think that (negatives defensively + rebounding outweigh the offensive contributions). However, while it helps, it becomes one of those situations where the phrase “short term gain, long term pain” applies.

    Andrea Bargnani is a 24 year old seven foot sweet shooting center who scores 18-20 points per game and has potential. While he has serious flaws and while there are many teams who will be turned off those flaws … there will always be GM’s who see value + upside in a prospect like Bargnani. Seven footers who can score the ball like he can are rare + valuable.
    Clearly the front court model of Bargnani and Bosh isn't working. It is on some nights, but for the most part those nights are few and far between. I agree with Dave in that I too feel that cutting back Andrea's minutes will help the team as a whole, but if there are any chances on moving him anytime soon, the less he plays the less his value becomes. So right now, we're screwed if we do, we're screwed if we don't.

    So, as Dave says we're better off playing him as much as possible which in turn will only increase his value on the market if that's a route Colangelo decides to go if he can re-sign Bosh long term which brings us to Dave's second terrifying situation:

    Sign and Trade Chris Bosh

    The most terrifying part of a Chris Bosh sign and trade is Bryan Colangelo agreeing to take back long term contracts. Trying to get as much talent as possible and agreeing to take back players like a Luol Deng or a Monta Ellis or whoever … in order to say he got the best package available and add the most talent possible to the Raptors squad.

    In doing so, another $10+ million contract to a non-elite player when combined with Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon, and Hedo Turkoglu will tie the Raptors hands financially ($40+ million for those four players) for the next 3-5 years and make life extremely difficult for the Raptors down the road.

    Toronto is better off to let Chris Bosh leave and have the full + instant cap flexibility from that decision … rather than accepting back mediocre to poor long term contracts (even a good contract is problematic).

    Once again, this is a short term gain (added talent via sign and trade) in exchange for long term pain (lack of a future, tied to mediocrity) situation.
    So say Colangelo can't retain Bosh long term, who do you think Bryan should be looking at for suitors for not only Bosh but more importantly, for the Raptors?

    Source - Click here

  2. #2
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    11,954
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Couldn't the Raptors attempt a summer S&T to a team with cap space and ask for a price tag of picks and cheap prospects? I mean if Bosh were to be moved in the summer he needs to accept the trade but who is to say it could not be a team with the cap space to eat most of his contract without sending outbound contracts? One example, and I am totally aware of his public reaction to this team, would be the Knicks. Picks and the likes of Douglas, Gallinari and Hill. Sure, it would be deemed a "Knicks steal" but if the Raptors had the cap space left to land a guy who fits who they want to be then it rounds out the deal nicely. The Knicks are just one example though.
    Last edited by Apollo; Tue Dec 1st, 2009 at 01:11 PM.

  3. #3
    Raptors Republic Starter James Ballswin (Realizar)'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    839
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I'm not a cap expert, but I'm pretty sure that letting Bosh walk won't leave us with any cap space. We'll still be close to the cap (not the luxury tax), which means we'll only have the MLE available to sign free agents.

    And with the cap expected to decrease again next year (by more than it did last year) won't help us at all.

    The argument of a Bosh SnT is that it'll give us some talent in return and allow us to be closer to the luxury tax threshold, which is where we want our total salary amount to be.

    Getting non-elite players in return does help in the sense that it provides us with more/better valuable trading chips than we'll have otherwise.

    Either way, BC has some more really tough decisions to make.

    Last edited by James Ballswin (Realizar); Tue Dec 1st, 2009 at 04:47 PM.

  4. #4
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Gatineau
    Posts
    136
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    As an aside, anyone else finding it more interesting to speculate on the long-term moves for this team than it is watching the games themselves?

    As far as I know, if we let Bosh walk, we don't necessarily get extra cap space, it depends on where we're situated in comparison to the cap. From there, there are special allowances that we can use up to the punitive tax level, including the MLE and re-signing our own players.

    If the Raptors start heading down the same road that they went under last year, where for the most part they obviously threw in the towel on the season, I would be up for a major move (whether it's trading Bosh or Bargnani) before the season is over, so that BC can draft and make minor moves while having a handle on what his team will look like going forward.

    I still think that a Bosh trade to SA makes the most sense if they want to give up some of their young players. Bosh for Jefferson, Hill and Blair works under the cap. Bargnani is a fairly solid man-defender so as long as he's surrounded by strong team defenders and rebounders (and all three players coming back from SA would fit this bill), he won't be a liability.

    The point is, I would hate to lose Bosh as a player, but basically, there are other players on the Raptors who can pick up the slack for him offensively and he's nothing special defensively.

    However, regardless of what happens, this team still lacks an identity. Do we run? Are we a half-court, executing team? Do we defend the paint? How do we defend the pick and roll? Are we going to commit to developing our youth or play a veteran lineup? These are pretty fundamental questions and I have no clue what the answers are.

  5. #5
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    11,954
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote James Ballswin (Realizar) wrote: View Post
    I'm not a cap expert, but I'm pretty sure that letting Bosh walk won't leave us with any cap space. We'll still be close to the cap (not the luxury tax), which means we'll only have the MLE available to sign free agents.

    And with the cap expected to decrease again next year (by more than it did last year) won't help us at all.

    The argument of a Bosh SnT is that it'll give us some talent in return and allow us to be closer to the luxury tax threshold, which is where we want our total salary amount to be.

    Getting non-elite players in return does help in the sense that it provides us with more/better valuable trading chips than we'll have otherwise.

    Either way, BC has some more really tough decisions to make.

    You want a rough idea?

    The Raptors Cap Number for 2010, less Bosh's contract option give you their salary expense for 2010. Then subtract the the league salary cap for 2009 and you get a rough idea.

    Cap space for 2010 without Bosh on the books= $63M-$17M-$58M = $12M

  6. #6
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Gatineau
    Posts
    136
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    You want a rough idea?

    The Raptors Cap Number for 2010, less Bosh's contract option give you their salary expense for 2010. Then subtract the the league salary cap for 2009 and you get a rough idea.

    Cap space for 2010 without Bosh on the books= $63M-$17M-$58M = $12M
    Not quite. Apparently, the 2010 cap could decrease by approximately 10%. If that's the case, the Raps would only have about $5.5 - $6 mil to spend, not a great amount. If Bosh leaves, BC has to try to get something, anything, through a sign and trade, or there are few avenues left to rebuild.

  7. #7
    Administrator Dr. James Naismith's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Almonte
    Posts
    4,054
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote DonCarlos wrote: View Post
    Not quite. Apparently, the 2010 cap could decrease by approximately 10%. If that's the case, the Raps would only have about $5.5 - $6 mil to spend, not a great amount. If Bosh leaves, BC has to try to get something, anything, through a sign and trade, or there are few avenues left to rebuild.
    Maybe I'm being naive, but I'd like to think that both parties would come to a mutual agreement if Bosh decides to part ways with Toronto. Or at least I'm hoping for that. But at the end of the day, I'm praying that we can retain Bosh and make other changes to improve this team.

  8. #8
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    5
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Doc Naismith wrote: View Post
    Clearly the front court model of Bargnani and Bosh isn't working.
    Question is: which model would work?
    Bosh needs a long range shooting big man alongside him to clear the paint.
    Then it needs a good defensive big bud on the other side of the court to limit his defensive liabilities. Someone who can step in an take charges.
    How many of such big men do you know around the league?
    To me there is no way to build a successful team around Chris Bosh the way they are trying to do. Bosh has to accept a much more limited role on offence, he can't ask team mates to clear the paint (as he sometimes scream them to) because each time he settles for a jumper you can be 100% secure you're not going to take an offensive rebound (given the obvious fact they all of your players are 10+ feet from the rim).
    I could continue for ages but the point is that this model is inherently flawed. And it is not because of the role played by Bargnani: Bosh needs Andrea to put up his numbers.

  9. #9
    Administrator Dr. James Naismith's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Almonte
    Posts
    4,054
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote morci wrote: View Post
    Question is: which model would work?
    Bosh needs a long range shooting big man alongside him to clear the paint.
    Then it needs a good defensive big bud on the other side of the court to limit his defensive liabilities. Someone who can step in an take charges.
    How many of such big men do you know around the league?
    To me there is no way to build a successful team around Chris Bosh the way they are trying to do. Bosh has to accept a much more limited role on offence, he can't ask team mates to clear the paint (as he sometimes scream them to) because each time he settles for a jumper you can be 100% secure you're not going to take an offensive rebound (given the obvious fact they all of your players are 10+ feet from the rim).
    I could continue for ages but the point is that this model is inherently flawed. And it is not because of the role played by Bargnani: Bosh needs Andrea to put up his numbers.
    First, welcome to the RR Forums morci.

    I personally don't think Bosh needs a long range big man to accompany him. We already have guys like Hedo, Marco and Jack to help stretch the offense with their long range shooting abilities. If anything, Bosh needs a banger down low to help create more space by being more physical & someone to box out and assist with the rebounding duties. The ideal candidate would be someone like Haywood and his performance last night. He's the type of player that would really compliment Chris' game.

  10. #10
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    5
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Doc Naismith wrote: View Post
    I personally don't think Bosh needs a long range big man to accompany him.
    I fully agree with you. The point is that this is what the raps organization thinks and what he knows he's best for him as long as its aim is to put up all star numbers (instead of being an elite player in an elite team).

    Quote Doc Naismith wrote: View Post
    The ideal candidate would be someone like Haywood and his performance last night. He's the type of player that would really compliment Chris' game.
    He had an O'Neal at his side for some games last season. It didn't really work that well.
    My take is that whichever line-up you put on the floor, isolation games for CB should simply be banned (or, at least, become one of the several plays you can run). And I don't think he would be happy to ear it.
    And probably the organization thinks the same since having a superstar player (in term of numbers) in your team draws a lot of people and interest.

  11. #11
    Administrator Dr. James Naismith's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Almonte
    Posts
    4,054
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote morci wrote: View Post
    He had an O'Neal at his side for some games last season. It didn't really work that well.
    Difference with JO is that as great as he was blocking shots, his rebounding was even more suspect than Bargnani's is at times. Not to mention JO's lack of mobility up and down the court was questionable too. I was just using Haywood as an example.

    I like the isolation at times for Bosh. Sure he might not be a smooth operator in the post all the time, but he's getting the charity stripe and drawing fouls often. I personally think we need more of that and less settling with the long range stuff.

  12. #12
    Raptors Republic Starter James Ballswin (Realizar)'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    839
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    You want a rough idea?

    The Raptors Cap Number for 2010, less Bosh's contract option give you their salary expense for 2010. Then subtract the the league salary cap for 2009 and you get a rough idea.

    Cap space for 2010 without Bosh on the books= $63M-$17M-$58M = $12M
    Appolo, you can't subtract Bosh's salary from our 2010 cap number. You have to subtract it from our total salary.

    According to Marc Stein of ESPN, "If basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million. If BRI, as it is referred to in the NBA, decreases by 5 percent, teams would be looking at a $50.4 million salary cap and a luxury-tax line of $61.2 million in 2010-11".

    Here's my rough calculation to project our 2010 cap space:

    Team salary/luxury tax ($61.2M) - Bosh's salary ($17M) + salary increases of current contracts (N/A) - NBA salary cap ($50.4M)

    If don't get anything in return for Bosh, I foresee us being below but very close to the salary cap, and that means we won't even have the MLE to spensd on a player. We need to sign-n-trade Bosh to acquire some trading chips and have the MLE to sign a decent free agent.

    Last edited by James Ballswin (Realizar); Wed Dec 2nd, 2009 at 10:54 AM.

  13. #13
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    5
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Doc Naismith wrote: View Post
    I like the isolation at times for Bosh.
    I don't (not as often as they run it now). Even when it works for Bosh it does not for the team.
    I guess it all comes to the different feelings for the game we have between Europeans and Americans.

  14. #14
    Raptors Republic All-Star brothersteve's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Hamilton
    Posts
    1,078
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Since Bosh isn't signing an extension, the only safe move left is to trade CB4 during the season while Colangelo can control the deal.
    A summer S&T leaves the team in the position of taking back picks and junk that will set the Raptors back for years.
    The best Raptors discussion board is at Raptors Republic.

    Stephen Brotherston, Pro Bball Report

  15. #15
    Raptors Republic Starter Katman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Burlington
    Posts
    233
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote James Ballswin (Realizar) wrote: View Post
    If don't get anything in return for Bosh, I foresee us being below but very close to the salary cap, and that means we won't even have the MLE to spensd on a player. We need to sign-n-trade Bosh to acquire some trading chips and have the MLE to sign a decent free agent.

    That's not exactly right. you lose the MLE if you are below the cap by more than the MLE. If you are only a few mil below you still get the MLE.

  16. #16
    Administrator Arsenalist's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    1,213
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Katman wrote: View Post
    That's not exactly right. you lose the MLE if you are below the cap by more than the MLE. If you are only a few mil below you still get the MLE.
    Correct. You can use the MLE while being under the cap as long as the signing takes you over the cap.

  17. #17
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    884
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    It's cap flexibility rather than direct cap space ... that the Raptors would gain by letting Bosh leave.

    In order to get cap space next offseason the Raptors would have to make other moves to dump salary (some combination of Jack, Bargnani, Jose, Hedo) or else they could wait until 2011 when Evans/Banks/Belinelli come off the cap.

    And if the Raptors took back contracts they'd then have around $40-50 million (roughly $40 mil in starting pay levels with all increasing per annum) tied up in Hedo, new $10+mil man, Bargnani, and Calderon and possibly for the next 4-5 seasons which wouldn't allow the Raptors any flexibility with their cap.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •