Suns have just signed Hakim Warrick
Suns have just signed Hakim Warrick
The Suns pretty much mirored the Raptors move - Amir Johnson version 2.0
Compare (stats are per 100 possessions, 82games.com):
On court 111.7 points for, 109.2 points against
Off court 112.7 points for, 117.3 points against
Hakim Warrick - Chicago
On court 106.6 points for, 112.3 points against
Off court 104.6 points for, 105.4 points against
Hakim Warrick - Milwaukee
On court 102.0 points for, 107.3 points against
Off court 107.1 points for, 103.0 points against
From above, we can see that Johnson had a slight negative effect on one of the top offenses in the league, while having a very positive effect on one of the worst defenses in the league.
Warrick, on the other hand, wavered between having a slight positive impact on one of the worst offenses in the league (Chicago) to having a notable negative impact on another of the worst offenses in the league (Milwaukee). On defense, he had a notable negative impact on two of the best defenses in the league. In fact, Chicago with Warrick on the court allowed more points per possession than Toronto with Johnson on the court.
At least from last year's data, it would seem from a cursory look that Warrick did not bring anything necessarily more than Johnson to a team's offense, and was a definite downgrade defensively. This isn't what you would expect from a superior player.
It's amazing how quickly the Amir backlash has started.
Sorry, that's what it just reminded me of.Michael Scott: Jim don't take this the wrong way. Are you going to take this the wrong way?
Jim Halpert: It's hard to tell so far.
Michael Scott: You use your brain too much.
Jim Halpert: I'm sorry are you advocating that I use it less?
Michael Scott: Sometimes the smartest people don't think at all.
Jim Halpert: You just came up with that.
Michael Scott: As I was saying it.
Shall we throw out random anecdotal opinions, compare youtube mixes, or hope that someone here has watched all three of Milwaukee, Chicago and Toronto sufficiently (and *remembers* Warrick's impact) to make an accurate analysis? =P
Johnson, on the other hand, I think he was also 6'7-ish without shoes (so a bit inflated 6'9 with shoes) when he was drafted. But we know he has grown since then so just compare him to Bargnani when they are standing together. Bargnani is supposed to be a legit 7'0 without shoes (7'1.25" in the shoes he was measured in the year he was drafted), and doesn't look that much taller than Johnson.
The oncourt, offcourt PF/PA is very team dependent. Amir is supposedly a solid defensive player on a historically bad defensive team. It's no wonder his "contribution" was so noticeable in the numbers. Then you have an average defensive player in Warrick on two of the better defensive teams with very good, but not intimidating, presence inside (Noah, Bogut) to hide mistakes the way a Duncan or Howard does. Of course he looks worse in comparison. I'm not denying Amir is a better defensive player, but the numbers exaggerate the difference, in my opinion.
On the other hand, Johnson is going to cost the Raptors ~75% more than Warrick will cost the Suns. He probably should be better. Warrick will mesh right in with the Suns offence (hard not to as a fairly quick, athletic player with a jumpshot alongside Steve Nash, right?). Defensively, he grabs 7.3 rp36m compared to Amare's 9.3 rp36m. That's all you can really know because he's never gotten good minutes, for whatever reason. You can project, but he's hardly had a chance at the NBA level, in my opinion.
I might also just be overly open minded as a Suns fan. Who knows.
IMO, both players are overpaid, though Warrick will hurt less if anything goes wrong.
I still think you have to look further than that. It's less black and white when the two players we're comparing don't even see a ton of minutes. Warrick averaged ~21 a game with the Bucks, I believe. Amir averaged ~18. Obviously, their quality of teammate and situation will fluctuate wildly. It's a lot more variable.
Checking out 82games.com, Jennings/Bell/Delfino/Warrick/Bogut defended at .98 ppp. They played just over 100 minutes together in the 48 games he played in Milwaukee. Replacing Warrick with supposed defensive stud MbahaMoute made that increase to 1.01 ppp (in 188.6 minutes together as a unit). Playing the two together (MbahaMoute and Warrick) with Jennings/Bell/Bogut yielded a 1.14 ppp. They only played 39.4 minutes together though. After that, Warrick played with all bench players.
Raptor combinations with Amir consistently gave up 1.1ppp+. Which only shows you can't categorically say the Raptors with Amir Johnson at the 4 were strictly better than the Bucks defensively with Hakim Warrick at the 4.
(The only Warrick sighting on the Bulls' top twenty five-man combinations was with Rose/Hinrich/Deng/Miller and they gave up 1.14 ppp. Hard to put much stock in number accumulated with a franchise he played a total of 533 minutes for, though.)
It does suck that Hakim ended up splitting his minutes between two teams, so I try to look at him with both teams in mind (then his minutes sample size is larger than even Amir's). But the 5-man unit stats are an even smaller sample size and I don't think they can be used to gauge anything accurately. I've used them to compare Jack vs Calderon in the starting unit because at least 1) both units played considerable minutes (over 300 minutes each), 2) both PGs split starting duties almost evenly, and 3) the starting unit tends to play in the same situations and against similar quality opposition.
Neither Amir or Hakim's 5-man unit stats mean much since 1) subs tend to play based on the situation or matchup, and 2) 30 minute sample sizes (or even the one 100 min unit**) is even smaller than the 500+ mins Hakim played with the Bulls. At the very least, when comparing Amir's 1400+ minutes and Hakim's combined 1500+ minutes, it's a bigger sample size with similar qualities (both were subs) and more likely to smooth out any outlying data. Hakim did play more minutes per game, and I have been very vocal on the whole "you can't extrapolate an 18-minute performance over more minutes", so he deserves that credit though.
Also, when you say "Raptor combinations with Amir consistently gave up 1.1ppp+...", don't forget that it was Chicago and not Milwaukee I said Toronto beat defensively when Amir and Hakim were on the floor (Hakim brought Milwaukee closer to Toronto defensively but still beat Toronto, which is not a hard feat though if you consider nobody outside of Amir was an above average defender, while Milwaukee had a few of those). Furthermore, why are you using the eye test on the 5-man units listed on that page? Those units make up barely half of Amir's total minutes played. If you want to compare ppp allowed on defense, the numbers I presented are the average over all minutes played. Amir was 1.092 ppp, Hakim was 1.123 ppp with Chicago and 1.073 with Milwaukee. There's no need to eye test anything.
** Another problem with the 100 min 5-man unit is that although Bogut, Jennings and Delfino were definite starters, Bell switched several times between starting unit and bench and Warrick was a sub, so how much of those 100 mins were actually against opposing teams' best players and how many were against inferior players or situational uses of Warrick that covered up his defensive deficiencies? Using only the 1400+ and 500+/1000+ sample sizes is safer.
Last edited by Quixotic; Sun Jul 4th, 2010 at 09:12 PM.
That's what I'm saying. I'm not trying to make any conclusions other than you can't make one. I probably didn't have to go through all that work, rofl. Really, if I was trying to make any real point, it's that Amir played 18 minutes a game; Warrick played 21 with Milwaukee and 19 with the Bulls. You're not going to be able to draw any strong conclusions either way. I'll wait for next season.
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