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Thread: Suns Sign Hakim Warrick 4 Year Deal

  1. #1
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    Default Suns Sign Hakim Warrick 4 Year Deal

    Suns have just signed Hakim Warrick

    http://nbaprimetime.com/?p=2133

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    The Suns pretty much mirored the Raptors move - Amir Johnson version 2.0

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    Quote Hotshot wrote: View Post
    The Suns pretty much mirored the Raptors move - Amir Johnson version 2.0
    Much Much Cheaper too they basically took a better player at much reasonable price compare to what Toronto Did.

    Thank you BC

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    Quote Raptor4Ever wrote: View Post
    Much Much Cheaper too they basically took a better player at much reasonable price compare to what Toronto Did.

    Thank you BC
    I disagree with Warrick being a better player.

    Compare (stats are per 100 possessions, 82games.com):

    Amir Johnson
    On court 111.7 points for, 109.2 points against
    Off court 112.7 points for, 117.3 points against

    Hakim Warrick - Chicago
    On court 106.6 points for, 112.3 points against
    Off court 104.6 points for, 105.4 points against

    Hakim Warrick - Milwaukee
    On court 102.0 points for, 107.3 points against
    Off court 107.1 points for, 103.0 points against

    From above, we can see that Johnson had a slight negative effect on one of the top offenses in the league, while having a very positive effect on one of the worst defenses in the league.

    Warrick, on the other hand, wavered between having a slight positive impact on one of the worst offenses in the league (Chicago) to having a notable negative impact on another of the worst offenses in the league (Milwaukee). On defense, he had a notable negative impact on two of the best defenses in the league. In fact, Chicago with Warrick on the court allowed more points per possession than Toronto with Johnson on the court.

    At least from last year's data, it would seem from a cursory look that Warrick did not bring anything necessarily more than Johnson to a team's offense, and was a definite downgrade defensively. This isn't what you would expect from a superior player.

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    Quote Raptor4Ever wrote: View Post
    Much Much Cheaper too they basically took a better player at much reasonable price compare to what Toronto Did.

    Thank you BC
    Hakim Warrick is certainly not a better player. Amir is a better rebounder, more efficient offensive player and much more effective on the court. Plus, Amir is 4 years younger and about 2 or 3 inches taller than the undersized Warrick.

    It's amazing how quickly the Amir backlash has started.

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    Quote Quixotic wrote: View Post
    I disagree with Warrick being a better player.

    Compare (stats are per 100 possessions, 82games.com):

    Amir Johnson
    On court 111.7 points for, 109.2 points against
    Off court 112.7 points for, 117.3 points against

    Hakim Warrick - Chicago
    On court 106.6 points for, 112.3 points against
    Off court 104.6 points for, 105.4 points against

    Hakim Warrick - Milwaukee
    On court 102.0 points for, 107.3 points against
    Off court 107.1 points for, 103.0 points against

    From above, we can see that Johnson had a slight negative effect on one of the top offenses in the league, while having a very positive effect on one of the worst defenses in the league.

    Warrick, on the other hand, wavered between having a slight positive impact on one of the worst offenses in the league (Chicago) to having a notable negative impact on another of the worst offenses in the league (Milwaukee). On defense, he had a notable negative impact on two of the best defenses in the league. In fact, Chicago with Warrick on the court allowed more points per possession than Toronto with Johnson on the court.

    At least from last year's data, it would seem from a cursory look that Warrick did not bring anything necessarily more than Johnson to a team's offense, and was a definite downgrade defensively. This isn't what you would expect from a superior player.
    here we go with the numbers comparison again. yawn
    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

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    Quote LBF wrote: View Post
    here we go with the numbers comparison again. yawn
    Michael Scott: Jim don't take this the wrong way. Are you going to take this the wrong way?
    Jim Halpert: It's hard to tell so far.
    Michael Scott: You use your brain too much.
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    Michael Scott: Sometimes the smartest people don't think at all.
    Jim Halpert: You just came up with that.
    Michael Scott: As I was saying it.
    Sorry, that's what it just reminded me of.

    Shall we throw out random anecdotal opinions, compare youtube mixes, or hope that someone here has watched all three of Milwaukee, Chicago and Toronto sufficiently (and *remembers* Warrick's impact) to make an accurate analysis? =P

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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    ...about 2 or 3 inches taller than the undersized Warrick.
    Warrick is also 6"9.

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    Quote Prime wrote: View Post
    Warrick is also 6"9.
    Although I do not know how much Warrick has grown since his initial measurement, he was only 6'9" due to a 1.25" boost from his shoes and then rounding up from 6'8.5.

    Johnson, on the other hand, I think he was also 6'7-ish without shoes (so a bit inflated 6'9 with shoes) when he was drafted. But we know he has grown since then so just compare him to Bargnani when they are standing together. Bargnani is supposed to be a legit 7'0 without shoes (7'1.25" in the shoes he was measured in the year he was drafted), and doesn't look that much taller than Johnson.

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    The oncourt, offcourt PF/PA is very team dependent. Amir is supposedly a solid defensive player on a historically bad defensive team. It's no wonder his "contribution" was so noticeable in the numbers. Then you have an average defensive player in Warrick on two of the better defensive teams with very good, but not intimidating, presence inside (Noah, Bogut) to hide mistakes the way a Duncan or Howard does. Of course he looks worse in comparison. I'm not denying Amir is a better defensive player, but the numbers exaggerate the difference, in my opinion.

    On the other hand, Johnson is going to cost the Raptors ~75% more than Warrick will cost the Suns. He probably should be better. Warrick will mesh right in with the Suns offence (hard not to as a fairly quick, athletic player with a jumpshot alongside Steve Nash, right?). Defensively, he grabs 7.3 rp36m compared to Amare's 9.3 rp36m. That's all you can really know because he's never gotten good minutes, for whatever reason. You can project, but he's hardly had a chance at the NBA level, in my opinion.

    I might also just be overly open minded as a Suns fan. Who knows.

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    Quote TRX wrote: View Post
    The oncourt, offcourt PF/PA is very team dependent. Amir is supposedly a solid defensive player on a historically bad defensive team. It's no wonder his "contribution" was so noticeable in the numbers. Then you have an average defensive player in Warrick on two of the better defensive teams with very good, but not intimidating, presence inside (Noah, Bogut) to hide mistakes the way a Duncan or Howard does. Of course he looks worse in comparison. I'm not denying Amir is a better defensive player, but the numbers exaggerate the difference, in my opinion.
    There's one thing you're forgetting though. What you're saying would be true if it was just a comparison of + and -, but when Amir was on the floor, the Raptors were a better team defensively than the Bulls with Warrick on the floor. A bit of this can be attributed to matchups and such, but still, it's a pretty sad sight to cause a team that has generally good defense to be worse than the Raptors. His impact on the Bucks also brought them a lot closer to the Raptors defensively.

    IMO, both players are overpaid, though Warrick will hurt less if anything goes wrong.

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    I still think you have to look further than that. It's less black and white when the two players we're comparing don't even see a ton of minutes. Warrick averaged ~21 a game with the Bucks, I believe. Amir averaged ~18. Obviously, their quality of teammate and situation will fluctuate wildly. It's a lot more variable.

    Checking out 82games.com, Jennings/Bell/Delfino/Warrick/Bogut defended at .98 ppp. They played just over 100 minutes together in the 48 games he played in Milwaukee. Replacing Warrick with supposed defensive stud MbahaMoute made that increase to 1.01 ppp (in 188.6 minutes together as a unit). Playing the two together (MbahaMoute and Warrick) with Jennings/Bell/Bogut yielded a 1.14 ppp. They only played 39.4 minutes together though. After that, Warrick played with all bench players.

    Raptor combinations with Amir consistently gave up 1.1ppp+. Which only shows you can't categorically say the Raptors with Amir Johnson at the 4 were strictly better than the Bucks defensively with Hakim Warrick at the 4.

    (The only Warrick sighting on the Bulls' top twenty five-man combinations was with Rose/Hinrich/Deng/Miller and they gave up 1.14 ppp. Hard to put much stock in number accumulated with a franchise he played a total of 533 minutes for, though.)

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    Quote TRX wrote: View Post
    I still think you have to look further than that. It's less black and white when the two players we're comparing don't even see a ton of minutes. Warrick averaged ~21 a game with the Bucks, I believe. Amir averaged ~18. Obviously, their quality of teammate and situation will fluctuate wildly. It's a lot more variable.

    Checking out 82games.com, Jennings/Bell/Delfino/Warrick/Bogut defended at .98 ppp. They played just over 100 minutes together in the 48 games he played in Milwaukee. Replacing Warrick with supposed defensive stud MbahaMoute made that increase to 1.01 ppp (in 188.6 minutes together as a unit). Playing the two together (MbahaMoute and Warrick) with Jennings/Bell/Bogut yielded a 1.14 ppp. They only played 39.4 minutes together though. After that, Warrick played with all bench players.

    Raptor combinations with Amir consistently gave up 1.1ppp+. Which only shows you can't categorically say the Raptors with Amir Johnson at the 4 were strictly better than the Bucks defensively with Hakim Warrick at the 4.

    (The only Warrick sighting on the Bulls' top twenty five-man combinations was with Rose/Hinrich/Deng/Miller and they gave up 1.14 ppp. Hard to put much stock in number accumulated with a franchise he played a total of 533 minutes for, though.)
    Oh, definitely. I agree that stats never tell the entire story. They help make what we remember more accurate (e.g. I thought Pat Borders was amazing in the Jays' World Series and almost always got on base; the stats show I had selective memory). And they can definitely be used to prove contradicting points if we try hard enough.

    It does suck that Hakim ended up splitting his minutes between two teams, so I try to look at him with both teams in mind (then his minutes sample size is larger than even Amir's). But the 5-man unit stats are an even smaller sample size and I don't think they can be used to gauge anything accurately. I've used them to compare Jack vs Calderon in the starting unit because at least 1) both units played considerable minutes (over 300 minutes each), 2) both PGs split starting duties almost evenly, and 3) the starting unit tends to play in the same situations and against similar quality opposition.

    Neither Amir or Hakim's 5-man unit stats mean much since 1) subs tend to play based on the situation or matchup, and 2) 30 minute sample sizes (or even the one 100 min unit**) is even smaller than the 500+ mins Hakim played with the Bulls. At the very least, when comparing Amir's 1400+ minutes and Hakim's combined 1500+ minutes, it's a bigger sample size with similar qualities (both were subs) and more likely to smooth out any outlying data. Hakim did play more minutes per game, and I have been very vocal on the whole "you can't extrapolate an 18-minute performance over more minutes", so he deserves that credit though.

    Also, when you say "Raptor combinations with Amir consistently gave up 1.1ppp+...", don't forget that it was Chicago and not Milwaukee I said Toronto beat defensively when Amir and Hakim were on the floor (Hakim brought Milwaukee closer to Toronto defensively but still beat Toronto, which is not a hard feat though if you consider nobody outside of Amir was an above average defender, while Milwaukee had a few of those). Furthermore, why are you using the eye test on the 5-man units listed on that page? Those units make up barely half of Amir's total minutes played. If you want to compare ppp allowed on defense, the numbers I presented are the average over all minutes played. Amir was 1.092 ppp, Hakim was 1.123 ppp with Chicago and 1.073 with Milwaukee. There's no need to eye test anything.

    ** Another problem with the 100 min 5-man unit is that although Bogut, Jennings and Delfino were definite starters, Bell switched several times between starting unit and bench and Warrick was a sub, so how much of those 100 mins were actually against opposing teams' best players and how many were against inferior players or situational uses of Warrick that covered up his defensive deficiencies? Using only the 1400+ and 500+/1000+ sample sizes is safer.
    Last edited by Quixotic; Sun Jul 4th, 2010 at 10:12 PM.

  14. #14
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    That's what I'm saying. I'm not trying to make any conclusions other than you can't make one. I probably didn't have to go through all that work, rofl. Really, if I was trying to make any real point, it's that Amir played 18 minutes a game; Warrick played 21 with Milwaukee and 19 with the Bulls. You're not going to be able to draw any strong conclusions either way. I'll wait for next season.

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