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Thread: We’re Now Flirting With The Tax While Fielding A 20-Win Team

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Default We’re Now Flirting With The Tax While Fielding A 20-Win Team

    July 9, 2010
    Things can finally start happening
    By Arsenalist

    "we’re now flirting with the tax while fielding a 20-win team"
    http://raptorsrepublic.com/2010/07/0...art-happening/

    This is a pretty negative and bold statement by Arsenalist.

    So I am throwing down the challenge right now right here.

    I am willing to wager that the Raptors win more than 30 games in 2010-11. It will be more but read on.

    Here is the wager

    Level #1
    ------------
    If the Raptors win less than 30 games in the 2010-11 season then I will refrain from posting on Raptors Republic Forum for 365 days beginning on the first day after the end of the 2010-11 regular season.

    If the Raptors win 30 games or more in the 2010-11 season, which is 50% over what Arsenalist says they will win, then Arsenalist will agree to not write any articles for Raptors Republic for 365 days beginning on the first day after the end of the 2010-11 regular season.

    Level 2
    --------------
    If the Raptors win less than 25 games in the 2010-11 season then I will refrain from posting on Raptors Republic Forum for 730 days beginning on the first day after the end of the 2010-11 regular season.

    If the Raptors win 41 games or more in the 2010-11 season, which is 100% over what Arsenalist says they will win, then Arsenalist will agree to not write any articles for Raptors Republic and not post on Raptors Republic Forum for 365 days beginning on the first day after the end of the 2010-11 regular season.

    If there is a lockout or interruption of play for any period of time commencing after the end of the 2010-11 regular season and running for the next 730 days it will have no bearing on this wager.

    This is my public challenge to Arsenalist.

    I am willing to put my posting privileges where my mouth is.

    Arse will you accept my challenge based upon what you wrote this morning?

    You can accept Level 1 by itself or Level 2 by itself or both levels.

    My friend ,what saith thou?
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
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    Raptors Republic All-Star hateslosing's Avatar
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    Arse please don't accept. This would be a case of the best writer on RR not writing for a year vs. one of the best posters not posting for a year. It's lose lose for those of us who come to this site for good discussion.
    "When Life gives you lemons, you clone those Lemons to make super lemons!"
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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote hateslosing wrote: View Post
    Arse please don't accept. This would be a case of the best writer on RR not writing for a year vs. one of the best posters not posting for a year. It's lose lose for those of us who come to this site for good discussion.
    I hope he doesn't accept but retracts because his statement is a bit overboard to say the least.
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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    I have a question: If you're challenging Arsenalist to stand by HIS bold prediction, why aren't you standing by YOUR bold prediction? A 20-win team vs a playoff team. One bold pick against the other. Anything in between isn't really all that bold, is it?

    http://raptorsrepublic.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2788

    So are you guys going to stand by your "bold" predictions, or not?

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    Think it would make a lot more sense to wait and see what other moves BC makes before jumping to conclusions on either side. And to be honest, I'm pretty sure the 20-win statement is nothing more than venting - it's clearly an exaggeration for cathartic purposes. Only two teams won fewer than 20 games last year, Minny and Jersey. Even Washington managed to bumble their way to 26 wins.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Bendit's Avatar
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    Buddahfan,

    Since you are in the mood for prognostications today...

    1) Will the Raptors win more than the Knicks

    2) Will the Raptors win more than the Nets

    3) Will the Raptors be able to beat the Heat (any game)

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    The reason that I posted this thread is because in my opinion Arsenalist's statement that the Raptors will be flirting with a 20 win team is another in his long line of just more Amir bashing.

    Let me explain.

    As it stands now it seems fairly clear to all who have been paying attention to the Raptors personnel changes so far since the July 1st that Amir is the front runner to replace Bosh as the starting PF.

    Other than that the only other significant change to the Raptors lineup in 2010-11 as things now stand is Kleiza replacing Wright if Denver doesn't match and Davis replacing Rasho.

    I think it is pretty obvious that Kleiza replacing Wright and Davis replacing Rasho will at the worst be lateral replacements if not improvements.

    So how is that the Raptors are going to go from 40 win team in 2009-10 to a 20 win team in 2010-11 according to Arsenalist.

    There can be only one explanation for this statement. Amir's replacement of Bosh as the starting PF.

    This is pure straight up continued unjustified bashing of maybe the Raptors best player in 2010-11.

    Okay people you can call me Amir's beetch if you want, which I ain't and I have never been anyone's beetch in my life and never will be.

    However as a fan of Amir, and the story is long why it is so, I have had Amir's back against bashers and will continue to do so.
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie MattyG-Ray's Avatar
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    We are not even close to the luxury tax. With Amir now signed, and if Denver fails to match the offer sheet, we will only have 60 million in committed salary for 2010/11, and 13 players under contract. We will still have the bird rights to Bosh, which would put us over the luxury tax. But since Bosh is signing with Miami or signing with Toronto in a sign and trade for a large trade exception, then Toronto goes back down to 60 million. The downside of course is that to be able to use the entire trade exception, Toronto would go over the luxury tax line. But it would be a year before it expires, and Toronto doesn't have to use it all at once, so its not to bad.
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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Buddahfan,

    I like your heart but don't you think you're being a little extreme here? Why not other terms that doesn't potentially cause us to lose one of our greatest resources for an entire year? I mean seriously, things can change and trades can happen. When the Bobcats landed Jackson, for example, they turned it around. This isn't me representing anyone but myself by the way. Just my personal opinion. I hope he doesn't agree to it.

    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    I hope he doesn't accept but retracts because his statement is a bit overboard to say the least.
    I don't think he should have to retract anything or agree to anything like this. If anyone had a slight shadow of a doubt they would not agree to that. Hell, if I had no doubt I wouldn't agree to that. Things change and a bet like this does not account for that.
    Last edited by Apollo; Fri Jul 9th, 2010 at 10:18 AM.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Bendit wrote: View Post
    Buddahfan,

    Since you are in the mood for prognostications today...

    1) Will the Raptors win more than the Knicks

    2) Will the Raptors win more than the Nets

    3) Will the Raptors be able to beat the Heat (any game)
    I have laid down my bet and that is it. Do you want to take it? The only difference being that if you take the bet then you will agree to stop posting at Level #1 if you lose.

    Do you take the bet?

    What the heck do the Knicks and Nets have to do with Arse bashing Amir Johnson?
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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    Who does arse think we're taking back with this trade exception? Eddy Curry? If we use the trade exception to take back someone with that much salary, I'm fairly certain will be better than a 30 win team. It's a baseless comment and made at a time when most raptor fans (and blog writers) have tunnel vision.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Lark Benson wrote: View Post
    Think it would make a lot more sense to wait and see what other moves BC makes before jumping to conclusions on either side. And to be honest, I'm pretty sure the 20-win statement is nothing more than venting - it's clearly an exaggeration for cathartic purposes. Only two teams won fewer than 20 games last year, Minny and Jersey. Even Washington managed to bumble their way to 26 wins.
    You could be correct. It could just be venting but I think it is just more of Arse's Amir bashing.
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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    If your on here you probably enjoy blogging, this is pretty moronic..

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    I don't think it's bashing Amir, I think it's realizing that the only reason the Raps pulled out as many wins as they did last year was because of their ability to simply outscore opponents. You take away Bosh, your go-to scorer and who at least 50% of the offense was run through, and you've got problems.

    a) You need to redesign the bulk of your offense, and you need to have your team learn to execute it and it's counters. This takes time, and will result in growing pains. We saw what happened early last year when the raps were running a simplistic offense in which the players weren't comfortable running the 2nd and 3rd options on any given play, resulting in a lot of standing around and desperation shots heaved toward the end of the shot clock, something that plagued them well into the second half of the season and was only negated somewhat by the emergence of the second unit's running game.
    b) The Raps no longer have a single player who can reliably create and make their own shots in isolation situations.
    c) The Raps still lack wing creativity and the playmakers' jobs just got a lot tougher with significantly downgraded options on the pick and roll.
    d) The raps no longer have any players to command a double and open up space, allowing defenses to load up on Bargs, Hedo and DeMar, daring them to launch from deep - expect lowered field goal percentages.
    e) The defense will continue to be crap for reasons that have nothing to do with Amir.

    You don't take away the focal point of your offense without significant growing pains, and those growing pains will likely translate into losses. It's not as simple as just slotting Amir into Bosh's position and expecting things to remain status quo. Last year the team's offense was it's saving grace, but if it falls toward the middle of the pack and the defense continues to be miserable, things could get ugly.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Lark Benson wrote: View Post
    I don't think it's bashing Amir, I think it's realizing that the only reason the Raps pulled out as many wins as they did last year was because of their ability to simply outscore opponents. You take away Bosh, your go-to scorer and who at least 50% of the offense was run through, and you've got problems.

    a) You need to redesign the bulk of your offense, and you need to have your team learn to execute it and it's counters. This takes time, and will result in growing pains. We saw what happened early last year when the raps were running a simplistic offense in which the players weren't comfortable running the 2nd and 3rd options on any given play, resulting in a lot of standing around and desperation shots heaved toward the end of the shot clock, something that plagued them well into the second half of the season and was only negated somewhat by the emergence of the second unit's running game.
    b) The Raps no longer have a single player who can reliably create and make their own shots in isolation situations.
    c) The Raps still lack wing creativity and the playmakers' jobs just got a lot tougher with significantly downgraded options on the pick and roll.
    d) The raps no longer have any players to command a double and open up space, allowing defenses to load up on Bargs, Hedo and DeMar, daring them to launch from deep - expect lowered field goal percentages.
    e) The defense will continue to be crap for reasons that have nothing to do with Amir.

    You don't take away the focal point of your offense without significant growing pains, and those growing pains will likely translate into losses. It's not as simple as just slotting Amir into Bosh's position and expecting things to remain status quo. Last year the team's offense was it's saving grace, but if it falls toward the middle of the pack and the defense continues to be miserable, things could get ugly.
    The team defense in 2010-11 will improve immensely with very little fall off from the overall team offense.

    Bosh's offense can be compensated for by others on the team especially when you consider that when he played for the Raptors he had this horrible habit of holding the ball for maybe 10 seconds or so way to often. The Raptors offense without him and his bad knee along with his holding the ball for so long will speed up. As a result the Raptors will be able to compensate on offense for his departure without losing much if any overall offensive effectiveness.

    In the meantime with Johnson getting more minutes and the addition of Davis and Carlesimo as an assistant coach as well as a year of familiarity with each other the defense will improve over last season.

    So overall I see the Raptors going from a team that gave up over 105 ppg and scored just under 105 ppg for a negative ppg spread to a team that will have a positive ppg spread of between 2 and 4 ppg.

    That is how I see it. Of course we won't know if I am correct or Arse and others who are forecasting an abysmal 2010-11 for the Raptors are correct until sometime after the all-star break next season.
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    Raptors Republic All-Star hateslosing's Avatar
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    How about this for a bet instead Buddha:

    Level one: If we win more than 30 games, Arse has to write an article highlighting all of Amir Johnson's Strengths and must also change his name to "Chelsea FC fan". If they don't win thirty games, you have to write a post about how Arse is brilliant and why you can never be as cool as him and change your screen name to "Amir and Arse's beetch".

    Level 2: If the Raps make the playoffs Arse must write a series of articles (at least 3) on why you are a genius and do a podcast about why Johnson is the best player on the raptors and why you are smarter than him. If they don't make the Playoffs, you must vow to never make any more predictions about the raps future or Amir Johnson ever again.
    "When Life gives you lemons, you clone those Lemons to make super lemons!"
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    The team defense in 2010-11 will improve immensely with very little fall off from the overall team offense.

    Bosh's offense can be compensated for by others on the team especially when you consider that when he played for the Raptors he had this horrible habit of holding the ball for maybe 10 seconds or so way to often. The Raptors offense without him and his bad knee along with his holding the ball for so long will speed up. As a result the Raptors will be able to compensate on offense for his departure without losing much if any overall offensive effectiveness.

    In the meantime with Johnson getting more minutes and the addition of Davis and Carlesimo as an assistant coach as well as a year of familiarity with each other the defense will improve over last season.

    So overall I see the Raptors going from a team that gave up over 105 ppg and scored just under 105 ppg for a negative ppg spread to a team that will have a positive ppg spread of between 2 and 4 ppg.

    That is how I see it. Of course we won't know if I am correct or Arse and others who are forecasting an abysmal 2010-11 for the Raptors are correct until sometime after the all-star break next season.
    a) I think people tend to think of holding the ball as a bad thing, but you have to realize that Bosh was holding the ball because the iso plays run for him require that of him. When he used to get the ball, player movement off the ball needed to be completed in order to shift the defense and open up space. He held the ball because you'd usually see a cutter taking his man to the opposite side of the floor, the shooters drifting into open space, and Bosh would wait for the defense to turn their heads, adjust and leave a shooter open for a kickout, or to see if the double was coming. The same 'holding the ball' criticism can be made of just about any post player in the league, because post play is about more than simply attacking as soon as you receive the ball; more than any other kind of offense it's dictated by how the defense is scheming against you (and this is especially true when you don't have unguardable athleticism or extremely well honed fundamentals, as with Howard and Duncan respectively).

    b) Bosh's defense was never the main problem, it's Barganani's lack of help D and general awareness, DeRozan's inexperience and inability to stay with shooters, Jack and Jose's inability to keep opposing point guards from penetrating, and Hedo being Hedo. If the Raps were shoring up the D in the starting lineup in any of the other positions on the court then I'd agree with you, but this is a team game and unless Amir turns into Dwight Howard, not much will change.

    edit: I would also add that you use the ppg statistic, which is less revealing than the offensive/defensive rating statistic (ie points scored and given up per 100 possessions). The raps were a -2 in this regard, and if they experience an offensive drop-off of only 1 point per 100 possessions next year then they would need to give up 5-7 fewer points per 100 possessions next year in order to achieve the swing you suggest. That's a VERY tall order. It's the difference between last place in defensive rating (ie where the Raps were last year) and roughly middle of the pack.
    Last edited by Lark Benson; Fri Jul 9th, 2010 at 10:59 AM.

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    I like the idea of the challenge, but the stakes are dumb. Use Hateslosing's bet instead. Arse has been a bit of a debbie downer for a while, but he still writes very good articles and I don't want him taking a year off when the Raptors break 30 wins.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star yertu damkule's Avatar
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    ah, buddah. our new khandor.

    you know i love amir. don't love his contract, but oh well, what's done is done. i think he has the potential to be an impactful player on a decent team, especially if he continues to learn how to avoid the cheap fouls, which might actually allow him to play enough minutes to make the kind of impact - and offset the loss of bosh - that you're predicting.

    but last i checked, and barring future moves, he'd still be out there covering defensively for jose, DD, turk & bargs. yes, he's an upgrade over bosh defensively, but that's a tall order for someone with a penchant for fouling. he's also the likely starter, meaning he's gonna be facing better players for longer (we hope) stretches of each game. what impact does that have over the long haul? and once opponents know he's our best frontcourt defender, and one prone to fouling, doesn't their game-plan become 'pound it inside to amir's check, try to pick up quick fouls, get him out of the game?'

    offensively, he'll be fighting turk & bargs - not to mention a developing DD - for touches. that means he won't get many. so, his offensive contributions will continue to come from in transition & put-backs - never a bad thing, but still...when you don't have a legit low-post scorer, it tightens everything up. who's demanding a double in the post? bargnani? and if they're never able to create the mismatches that often result from teams scrambling to recover from a double, their outside shooting suffers, as does the PnR.

    it's not really a question of amir not being 'good enough' overall to replace bosh, it's that the things that bosh did on the floor allowed the offense to function as it did. take that away without compensating for it effectively, and that aspect drops significantly. improving D is important, though it can be argued that with hedo, turk, DD & jose/jack still figuring to play prominent roles, swapping amir for bosh isn't really going to make a huge impact in that regard.

    and please, let's stop with the ridiculous hyperbole over how long bosh 'held' the ball, unless, of course, you have actual examples of him holding it for 10 seconds. soon, it'll be, 'bosh held the ball for 23 seconds on every possession, and each one ended with a fade-away 38-footer.'
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    Just to reinforce my points, consider that at 82games.com you can view the top 5-man lineups the Raps played last season. And while I can't compare Calderon + DeRozan + Turk + Bosh + Bargs to the same lineup with Johnson substituted for Bosh because the former wasn't in the top-20 in minutes played together, we CAN compare Jack + DeRozan + Turk + Bosh + Bargs to the same lineup with Johnson substituted for Bosh. And guess what? The lineup feature Johnson actually had a worse defensive rating (the site measures it in points allowed per possession in this case), with 1.15 for the Bosh lineup and 1.16 for the Johnson lineup.

    I'll fully grant that part of this could be that the Bosh lineup played far more minutes together and therefor formed a more cohesive defensive unit, but the more likely explanation is that Johnson's foul rate resulted in teams entering the bonus earlier and negated his shotblocking abilities.

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