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We’re Now Flirting With The Tax While Fielding A 20-Win Team

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  • #16
    How about this for a bet instead Buddha:

    Level one: If we win more than 30 games, Arse has to write an article highlighting all of Amir Johnson's Strengths and must also change his name to "Chelsea FC fan". If they don't win thirty games, you have to write a post about how Arse is brilliant and why you can never be as cool as him and change your screen name to "Amir and Arse's beetch".

    Level 2: If the Raps make the playoffs Arse must write a series of articles (at least 3) on why you are a genius and do a podcast about why Johnson is the best player on the raptors and why you are smarter than him. If they don't make the Playoffs, you must vow to never make any more predictions about the raps future or Amir Johnson ever again.
    "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

    -Churchill

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    • #17
      Buddahfan wrote: View Post
      The team defense in 2010-11 will improve immensely with very little fall off from the overall team offense.

      Bosh's offense can be compensated for by others on the team especially when you consider that when he played for the Raptors he had this horrible habit of holding the ball for maybe 10 seconds or so way to often. The Raptors offense without him and his bad knee along with his holding the ball for so long will speed up. As a result the Raptors will be able to compensate on offense for his departure without losing much if any overall offensive effectiveness.

      In the meantime with Johnson getting more minutes and the addition of Davis and Carlesimo as an assistant coach as well as a year of familiarity with each other the defense will improve over last season.

      So overall I see the Raptors going from a team that gave up over 105 ppg and scored just under 105 ppg for a negative ppg spread to a team that will have a positive ppg spread of between 2 and 4 ppg.

      That is how I see it. Of course we won't know if I am correct or Arse and others who are forecasting an abysmal 2010-11 for the Raptors are correct until sometime after the all-star break next season.
      a) I think people tend to think of holding the ball as a bad thing, but you have to realize that Bosh was holding the ball because the iso plays run for him require that of him. When he used to get the ball, player movement off the ball needed to be completed in order to shift the defense and open up space. He held the ball because you'd usually see a cutter taking his man to the opposite side of the floor, the shooters drifting into open space, and Bosh would wait for the defense to turn their heads, adjust and leave a shooter open for a kickout, or to see if the double was coming. The same 'holding the ball' criticism can be made of just about any post player in the league, because post play is about more than simply attacking as soon as you receive the ball; more than any other kind of offense it's dictated by how the defense is scheming against you (and this is especially true when you don't have unguardable athleticism or extremely well honed fundamentals, as with Howard and Duncan respectively).

      b) Bosh's defense was never the main problem, it's Barganani's lack of help D and general awareness, DeRozan's inexperience and inability to stay with shooters, Jack and Jose's inability to keep opposing point guards from penetrating, and Hedo being Hedo. If the Raps were shoring up the D in the starting lineup in any of the other positions on the court then I'd agree with you, but this is a team game and unless Amir turns into Dwight Howard, not much will change.

      edit: I would also add that you use the ppg statistic, which is less revealing than the offensive/defensive rating statistic (ie points scored and given up per 100 possessions). The raps were a -2 in this regard, and if they experience an offensive drop-off of only 1 point per 100 possessions next year then they would need to give up 5-7 fewer points per 100 possessions next year in order to achieve the swing you suggest. That's a VERY tall order. It's the difference between last place in defensive rating (ie where the Raps were last year) and roughly middle of the pack.
      Last edited by Lark Benson; Fri Jul 9, 2010, 10:59 AM.

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      • #18
        I like the idea of the challenge, but the stakes are dumb. Use Hateslosing's bet instead. Arse has been a bit of a debbie downer for a while, but he still writes very good articles and I don't want him taking a year off when the Raptors break 30 wins.

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        • #19
          ah, buddah. our new khandor.

          you know i love amir. don't love his contract, but oh well, what's done is done. i think he has the potential to be an impactful player on a decent team, especially if he continues to learn how to avoid the cheap fouls, which might actually allow him to play enough minutes to make the kind of impact - and offset the loss of bosh - that you're predicting.

          but last i checked, and barring future moves, he'd still be out there covering defensively for jose, DD, turk & bargs. yes, he's an upgrade over bosh defensively, but that's a tall order for someone with a penchant for fouling. he's also the likely starter, meaning he's gonna be facing better players for longer (we hope) stretches of each game. what impact does that have over the long haul? and once opponents know he's our best frontcourt defender, and one prone to fouling, doesn't their game-plan become 'pound it inside to amir's check, try to pick up quick fouls, get him out of the game?'

          offensively, he'll be fighting turk & bargs - not to mention a developing DD - for touches. that means he won't get many. so, his offensive contributions will continue to come from in transition & put-backs - never a bad thing, but still...when you don't have a legit low-post scorer, it tightens everything up. who's demanding a double in the post? bargnani? and if they're never able to create the mismatches that often result from teams scrambling to recover from a double, their outside shooting suffers, as does the PnR.

          it's not really a question of amir not being 'good enough' overall to replace bosh, it's that the things that bosh did on the floor allowed the offense to function as it did. take that away without compensating for it effectively, and that aspect drops significantly. improving D is important, though it can be argued that with hedo, turk, DD & jose/jack still figuring to play prominent roles, swapping amir for bosh isn't really going to make a huge impact in that regard.

          and please, let's stop with the ridiculous hyperbole over how long bosh 'held' the ball, unless, of course, you have actual examples of him holding it for 10 seconds. soon, it'll be, 'bosh held the ball for 23 seconds on every possession, and each one ended with a fade-away 38-footer.'
          TRUE LOVE - Sometimes you know it the instant you see it across the bar.

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          • #20
            Just to reinforce my points, consider that at 82games.com you can view the top 5-man lineups the Raps played last season. And while I can't compare Calderon + DeRozan + Turk + Bosh + Bargs to the same lineup with Johnson substituted for Bosh because the former wasn't in the top-20 in minutes played together, we CAN compare Jack + DeRozan + Turk + Bosh + Bargs to the same lineup with Johnson substituted for Bosh. And guess what? The lineup feature Johnson actually had a worse defensive rating (the site measures it in points allowed per possession in this case), with 1.15 for the Bosh lineup and 1.16 for the Johnson lineup.

            I'll fully grant that part of this could be that the Bosh lineup played far more minutes together and therefor formed a more cohesive defensive unit, but the more likely explanation is that Johnson's foul rate resulted in teams entering the bonus earlier and negated his shotblocking abilities.

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            • #21
              I think Arsenalist is saying that the Raptors as is right now, is a 20-wins team. But the reality is, we are going to see more moves from BC who is trying to compete again, so 30 wins is not difficult to achieve. Anyway, I prefer to read Arsenalist posts and blogs instead of BuddaFan's so called predictions

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              • #22
                As much as I'd like a vacation from writing, the last thing I'd want is Buddahfan to stop posting for a year, so on the basis of that alone I won't accept this. Not to mention that the roster of 2010-11 isn't set yet so any prediction of win total would be based on half the facts.

                If you want to have a prediction contest, let's wait till before the season starts and wager some money on it, instead of posting privileges.

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                • #23
                  Apollo wrote: View Post
                  Buddahfan,

                  I like your heart but don't you think you're being a little extreme here? Why not other terms that doesn't potentially cause us to lose one of our greatest resources for an entire year? I mean seriously, things can change and trades can happen. When the Bobcats landed Jackson, for example, they turned it around. This isn't me representing anyone but myself by the way. Just my personal opinion. I hope he doesn't agree to it.



                  I don't think he should have to retract anything or agree to anything like this. If anyone had a slight shadow of a doubt they would not agree to that. Hell, if I had no doubt I wouldn't agree to that. Things change and a bet like this does not account for that.
                  quit being such a sap let's have something interesting go on in the forums instead of trying to shoot down everything.

                  i think you guys should up the anti and you should have your ip adress completely banned for a year if you're wrong so you can't even read anything.
                  If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

                  Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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                  • #24
                    Arsenalist wrote: View Post
                    As much as I'd like a vacation from writing, the last thing I'd want is Buddahfan to stop posting for a year, so on the basis of that alone I won't accept this. Not to mention that the roster of 2010-11 isn't set yet so any prediction of win total would be based on half the facts.

                    If you want to have a prediction contest, let's wait till before the season starts and wager some money on it, instead of posting privileges.
                    you know i don't see how you can be a good poster what makes you a good poster really a good writer maybe but good poster?

                    i'm not sure there is such a thing.
                    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

                    Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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                    • #25
                      Hahaha, this is pretty awesome.

                      Buddha, a little aggressive in your bets, but I like it.

                      Even if there was no basis for the raptors being a better team next year, you would think some of the writers would conjure up some optimistic material to carry fans through the dark days of summer.

                      I'm actually in the same boat as Buddha, I think the raptors will be better next year and make the playoffs and not simply because Bosh is gone. His efficient offense will be missed badly, but as a franchise guy he was lacking in every other single consideration and I think the rest of the team can fill some of the glaring voids that were created by his style of play.

                      The 20 wins just seems like a cop out prediction designed to slam BC. The lack of S&T was disheartening, but every single player on the squad other than Jose (who will likely be shipped out) is in all likelihood going to make a more positive contribution than last year.

                      How do people look at last year's team that won 40 games and think it is even remotely close to what the team will look like next year?

                      Sonny and Amir weren't getting any burn, Turk played like a beached whale, Derozan was the greenest rookie since Tmac, the organization was still under the misguided notion that Jose was a starter oh and Triano had 9 new guys and a mandate to play a certain lineup regardless of its viability.

                      Lebron's wake of destruction leveled 4 teams and only Chicago might come out unscathed. If the raps can't get the 8th seed in the dilapidated East, everyone should be fired.

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                      • #26
                        mo-sales wrote: View Post
                        Lebron's wake of destruction leveled 4 teams and only Chicago might come out unscathed. If the raps can't get the 8th seed in the dilapidated East, everyone should be fired.
                        This is exactly the problem though; the 8th seed in the playoffs is only useful if it's a learning experience for a young team looking to build on that experience as it works it's way toward a title. Hardly describes the Raptors. It's just short term gain at the expense of long term development if you end up playing your 'veterans' at the expense of your younger players. And if you DO play your younger players so that they can develop, hoping for an 8th seed is probably pretty optimistic.

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                        • #27
                          LBF wrote: View Post
                          quit being such a sap let's have something interesting go on in the forums instead of trying to shoot down everything.

                          i think you guys should up the anti and you should have your ip adress completely banned for a year if you're wrong so you can't even read anything.
                          Bahahahaha, if you're so tough then why don't you step in and make a bet against Baddahfan? Go ahead, make his day.
                          Last edited by Apollo; Fri Jul 9, 2010, 01:26 PM.

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                          • #28
                            Buddahfan wrote: View Post
                            The team defense in 2010-11 will improve immensely with very little fall off from the overall team offense.

                            Bosh's offense can be compensated for by others on the team especially when you consider that when he played for the Raptors he had this horrible habit of holding the ball for maybe 10 seconds or so way to often. The Raptors offense without him and his bad knee along with his holding the ball for so long will speed up. As a result the Raptors will be able to compensate on offense for his departure without losing much if any overall offensive effectiveness.

                            In the meantime with Johnson getting more minutes and the addition of Davis and Carlesimo as an assistant coach as well as a year of familiarity with each other the defense will improve over last season.

                            So overall I see the Raptors going from a team that gave up over 105 ppg and scored just under 105 ppg for a negative ppg spread to a team that will have a positive ppg spread of between 2 and 4 ppg.

                            That is how I see it. Of course we won't know if I am correct or Arse and others who are forecasting an abysmal 2010-11 for the Raptors are correct until sometime after the all-star break next season.
                            I have to agree with what Lark Benson wrote (is it me, or does that sound like the protagonist in a Clive Cussler novel?)

                            I think it extremely unlikely that the Raptors score the same next year, especially if Calderon is traded. For all of Bosh's weaknesses, including holding the ball, he is the ONLY player on the Raptors who could manufacture points. A team can't simply run more and expect to score more. The Raptors ran as much as possible, and the times when Bosh held the ball, the team was playing half court. Who is going to score when the team is in the half court?

                            On defense, I know I sound like a broken record, but if Bargnani is still with the team, it will always struggle defensively. Bosh simply wasn't the problem, and replacing him with someone better defensively will have a very small effect on the defense.

                            My big problem with your belief that the Raptors will make the playoffs is that games are generally won and lost in the last few minutes of a games. The biggest difference between a 50 win team and a 30 win team is that a 50 win team makes a couple of fewer mistakes in the last few minutes. A 60 win team makes almost none.

                            You can talk all you want about offense and defense, and I'm not saying the Raptors aren't going to be competitive in games, but at the end of the game, a team with so many young players, and no one who can manufacture points, is not going to win a lot. It's just the way the NBA is. I think the Raptors are going to be a fun team to watch, and I think they've got a brighter future than many seem to think, but if the Raptors lose Bosh AND Calderon, they will have lost two of their most experienced veterans on a team without a lot of veterans.
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                            • #29
                              Tim W. wrote: View Post
                              I think it extremely unlikely that the Raptors score the same next year, especially if Calderon is traded. For all of Bosh's weaknesses, including holding the ball, he is the ONLY player on the Raptors who could manufacture points. A team can't simply run more and expect to score more. The Raptors ran as much as possible, and the times when Bosh held the ball, the team was playing half court. Who is going to score when the team is in the half court?
                              The Raptors scored the same PPG with Bosh out of the lineup. They gave up more on defense though, a whopping extra 2PPG.

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                              • #30
                                The raptors didn't really run that much last year. They had a front court of Turk, Bosh and Bargs, none of which have ever been described as mobile in transition.

                                Also by improving the defense from worst to hopefully middle of the pack, it will also increase transition opportunities as it is a lot easier to run off misses than makes. Half court might be an issue, but Triano is a pretty good offensive coach I think ball movement will be stressed.

                                Good point about scoring in the last two minutes, but Turk got a lot of those touches last year and pissed almost everyone away and while Bosh has a good highlight reel of game winning shots, he has historically been unable to come through like most PF's when it comes to winning time.

                                Bosh is average at best defensively and has much more in common with Amare and Boozer than Duncan or KG. I think replacing him with Amir will have a significant effect on the defensive end in terms of effort, IQ and intensity and also the rotating bigs of Davis and Solomon should all help to cover for Bargs deficiencies. I also think Bargs defense will improve by simply removing Bosh in a similar fashion that Bosh's will improve by being away from Bargs.

                                The raptors will have arguably the worst crunch time player of any team in the league and by that I mean I do not know who that will be. I'm sure Turk will get some looks, but I think Weems has the confidence and mid range game to handle a lot of the touches inside the last two minutes, but that is asking a lot from a guy who only has a half season of reliable minutes under his belt.

                                I just don't see 8 teams in the East who will be better or who will care as much day in and day out as the raptors will. No expectations is a much better approach to a season than trying to live up to unrealistic ones.

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