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Thread: Rebounds: The Single Most Important Stat In Basketball

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    Default Rebounds: The Single Most Important Stat In Basketball

    Rebounds: The Single Most Important Stat in Basketball

    Blog. Blog. Blog. Even the most casual basketball fan has heard of the 'slam dunk' or the '3-pointer' - but not everyone knows about the single most important stat in basketball, the REBOUND. Rebounds don't get much shine and don't expect to see a rebound highlight appear on "Court Cuts" but if the game is all about winning then rebounds are the catalyst.

    Think of a rebound as a second chance. Let me paint you a picture using the Raptors as an example: The Raps are playing great D for 24 seconds, hands are up disrupting passing lanes, they're closing out on shooters, calling out screens and this defensive intensity leads to a desperation 3 pointer taken to avoid a shot clock violation. The ball leaves the opposing player's fingertips and sails through the air towards the basket. 5 sets of Raptors eyes gaze at the ball in flight - the Raps point guard is anticipating a fast break, the shooting guard has made his way down court hoping to be the recipient of a long pass for an easy 2 but all the while not a single player on the home team has put a body on anyone - the opposing team snatches the rebound and settles in for another offensive possession. The Raps, having just played terrific D (a rarity) are deflated by the missed opportunity and lack the intensity they had the possession before thus they give up an easy bucket.

    Clear enough for ya?

    All the best teams rebound successfully. With those rebounds they are able to control the pace of the game. When you can limit your opposition to a single shot every time down the floor you increase your chances of winning tremendously. Quality defense is wasted if the possession does not culminate with a defensive rebound.
    The Western conference has had a lock on the NBA for years because teams in the West controlled the boards. I'm not just talking about the big men either - to be a successful rebounding team everyone on the floor must be an active rebounder. Players must resist the temptation to leak out down the floor - first, secure the basketball, control the tempo, come down the court and run your offensive set.
    GM's around the league understand the importance of rebounds and it has translated to the stocks of big men rising. Just look at some of the most recent number 1 overall draft picks - Dwight Howard, Greg Oden and Blake Griffin. These are big guys who control the offensive and defensive boards, granted the latter two haven't panned out due to injury problems, but still you see the direction the NBA is headed.
    More and more players are being held accountable as rebounders. Lebron James, arguably the best basketball player on the planet has used the same athleticism he displays while scoring to snatch rebounds that he really has no right to. Look at Rajon Rondo, the Boston Celtics point guard. Questions surrounded the young point guard's ability to score and distribute the basketball to his play makers, so what did he do? He crashed the boards - earning the respect of Kevin Garnett and in the process an NBA championship.

    Still have doubts about rebounds? Tune into the next Raptor game and pay attention to the rebound differential - shout out Amir Johnson.

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    big !

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    Is not enough just to rebound ... is the entire defensive game that actually leads to a rebound: positioning, boxing out, anticipation, pressure on opposite offense to take difficult shots, etc. The player that gets the ball should be just the end of the defensive sequence, if you just sit around and hope the ball will bounce your way is not going to happen. That's why you need a defensive system which unfortunately Raptors doesn't have one.

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    Great effort . Next time though if you included links and metrics with your explaination it would be much more credible. Just explaining how you percieve the importance of rebounds does not do it for many RR posters and readers.

    An example of an article written a few years ago which goes against your arguement was done by Wages of Wins Journal. They had found that rebounds were not the significant factor in determaining the calculation of wins, denoted by "Win Score".

    Wins Score = Points + Rebounds + Steals + ˝*Assists + ˝*Blocked Shots - Field Goal Attempts – ˝*Free Throw Attempts – Turnovers – ˝*Personal Fouls

    To illustrate how rebounds are not the factor that dominates Win Score, I created a Kaufman-inspired adjusted formula. Specifically, I kept everything the same but I lowered the impact of a rebound to only 70% the value of a point.

    In other words, I created the following formula:

    Kaufman-inspired Wins Score = Points + 0.7*Rebounds + Steals + ˝*Assists + ˝*Blocked Shots - Field Goal Attempts – ˝*Free Throw Attempts – Turnovers – ˝*Personal Fouls

    The correlation between Win Score and the Kaufman inspired formula is 0.99 for players in the 05-06 season. In other words, changing the value of rebounds does not change your results. Clearly, the issue is not rebounds.
    Source: Wages of Wins- Do We Overvalue Rebounds

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    Duly noted. Interesting formula.

    In the future I will include links and metrics.

    Part of the reason I enjoy the forum and have began contributing to it is due to the involved and knowledgable reader base. For the most part people on RR know what they are talking about and are able to communicate their thoughts through written words.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote Get High Monkey wrote: View Post
    Rebounds: The Single Most Important Stat in Basketball

    Blog. Blog. Blog. Even the most casual basketball fan has heard of the 'slam dunk' or the '3-pointer' - but not everyone knows about the single most important stat in basketball, the REBOUND. Rebounds don't get much shine and don't expect to see a rebound highlight appear on "Court Cuts" but if the game is all about winning then rebounds are the catalyst.

    Think of a rebound as a second chance. Let me paint you a picture using the Raptors as an example: The Raps are playing great D for 24 seconds, hands are up disrupting passing lanes, they're closing out on shooters, calling out screens and this defensive intensity leads to a desperation 3 pointer taken to avoid a shot clock violation. The ball leaves the opposing player's fingertips and sails through the air towards the basket. 5 sets of Raptors eyes gaze at the ball in flight - the Raps point guard is anticipating a fast break, the shooting guard has made his way down court hoping to be the recipient of a long pass for an easy 2 but all the while not a single player on the home team has put a body on anyone - the opposing team snatches the rebound and settles in for another offensive possession. The Raps, having just played terrific D (a rarity) are deflated by the missed opportunity and lack the intensity they had the possession before thus they give up an easy bucket.

    Clear enough for ya?

    All the best teams rebound successfully. With those rebounds they are able to control the pace of the game. When you can limit your opposition to a single shot every time down the floor you increase your chances of winning tremendously. Quality defense is wasted if the possession does not culminate with a defensive rebound.
    The Western conference has had a lock on the NBA for years because teams in the West controlled the boards. I'm not just talking about the big men either - to be a successful rebounding team everyone on the floor must be an active rebounder. Players must resist the temptation to leak out down the floor - first, secure the basketball, control the tempo, come down the court and run your offensive set.
    GM's around the league understand the importance of rebounds and it has translated to the stocks of big men rising. Just look at some of the most recent number 1 overall draft picks - Dwight Howard, Greg Oden and Blake Griffin. These are big guys who control the offensive and defensive boards, granted the latter two haven't panned out due to injury problems, but still you see the direction the NBA is headed.
    More and more players are being held accountable as rebounders. Lebron James, arguably the best basketball player on the planet has used the same athleticism he displays while scoring to snatch rebounds that he really has no right to. Look at Rajon Rondo, the Boston Celtics point guard. Questions surrounded the young point guard's ability to score and distribute the basketball to his play makers, so what did he do? He crashed the boards - earning the respect of Kevin Garnett and in the process an NBA championship.

    Still have doubts about rebounds? Tune into the next Raptor game and pay attention to the rebound differential - shout out Amir Johnson.

    You could probably sell it to "Bleacher Report"!
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    Quote insight_tor wrote: View Post
    Is not enough just to rebound ... is the entire defensive game that actually leads to a rebound: positioning, boxing out, anticipation, pressure on opposite offense to take difficult shots, etc. The player that gets the ball should be just the end of the defensive sequence, if you just sit around and hope the ball will bounce your way is not going to happen. That's why you need a defensive system which unfortunately Raptors doesn't have one.
    I think what we are saying is one-and-the-same. I make a reference to the importance of blocking out and avoiding the temptation to leak down the floor before the ball is secured.

    Let's face it, everyone in the NBA is an incredible athlete - there is not much success to be had by simply attempting to "out-jump" your opponent to the ball. Look at players like Jason Kidd - a very capable rebounder throughout his career yet not one of the tallest or most explosive guys - he was crafty and understood the importance of boxing out and staying with a play.

    I agree that the Raptors have lacked a successfully "defensive system" - often times a Raptor is left guarding his opponent on an island. This was often the case with Jose Calderon - the lack of team defense exposed Calderon and triggered critics to question his defensive abilities. The truth is there are tremendous athletes at the point guard position and very rarely is it or should it be the sole responsibility of one player to contain these quick guards. In this past season’s play-offs, Derek Fisher was not tasked with stopping Russell Westbrook - Fisher's teammates played help D and limited the options that the explosive young point guard had to choose from.

    In saying that, I do like the direction the Raptors are moving in. With the resigning of Amir Johnson and the drafting of Ed Davis and Solomon Alibi, the Raps have added length and toughness especially in the painted area. Most importantly though these aforementioned players WANT to play D and WANT to rebound - and, as we know, a WANT is half the battle.

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    Quote Get High Monkey wrote: View Post
    Duly noted. Interesting formula.

    In the future I will include links and metrics.

    Part of the reason I enjoy the forum and have began contributing to it is due to the involved and knowledgable reader base. For the most part people on RR know what they are talking about and are able to communicate their thoughts through written words.
    Yea, I find many of the individuals here post very intelligent arguments but there are a few people on here who become too attached to their own opinions and get a little too defensive when someone else brings up an opposing one. Besides the “right fighters” on here, it is overall a good reading experience.

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    rebounding is all good...im just happy that we got some ball players w tattoos...man we had so many puss' come through this team. now we got grit. ps. Fire Triano he's softer than eggwhites

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    Quote Get High Monkey wrote: View Post
    [B][U]The Western conference has had a lock on the NBA for years because teams in the West controlled the boards.
    Do you have data on this? I ran it quickly and it appears both conferences are the same (even just using top 5 in each)

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    Most people don't even look at rebounding numbers the correct way.

    Total rebounds by themselves mean nothing

    Percent of total available rebounds mean a bit more than Total rebounds

    Percent of total available rebounds on the offense and defense boards mean a bit more than just plain percent of total available rebounds

    Net second chance points vs your opponents mean even more and are the most meaningful rebounding numbers. (1)

    However I do not think any of the major hoop websites show that number for each game yet alone for the entire season.

    (1) When you grab all the available defensive rebounds your opponent gets no second chance points. When you get second chance points it means that you are getting offensive rebounds. So net second chance points vs your opponent is the key number to look for.
    ====================
    Having said that from a team prospective the teams that win the NBA title are usually among the top five in field goal percentage.

    I think effective field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage against are the two most important stats in basketball. Some might argue that True Shooting Percentage is a better measure.

    In either case it is one or the other because when all is said and done the game is about putting ball in the basket and keeping your opponent from doing the same.


    http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Tue Jul 20th, 2010 at 01:53 PM.
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    Many sees Jose Calderon a bad defensive player. I can see the point, Jose is not that gritty player with quick hands/feet and enough muscle to out power the player he guards. However, as bad as people thinks Jose is on defense, they forget that Jose was part of Spain team which won the gold medal beating US and other basketball powerhouses. For years, Raptors have no defensive system, they rely on individual performances of defensive specialists to stop the best player from the opposite team and when they can't hold their own you can see Kobe dropping 81 or LeBron 54. Obviously, Jose doesn't excel in this kind of defensive system.

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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Most people don't even look at rebounding numbers the correct way.
    Source?

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