Getting that post presence

[Soft Euro]

There has been some talk on the forum of people wanting us to get a post presence; preferably someone who can pass. To help that discussion I've compiled a list of players with their post and assist stats. Some are there because they are among the best in the league, other because they have been mentioned as targets. I've included Valanciunas and Johnson for comparison.

Name	% Of possessions post-ups	Points per possession - Post-ups	Post-up Rank on Synergy	FG% on post-ups	Turnover% on Post-ups	%Score on post-ups	Assist Rate	Turnover Rate
Amir Johnson	5,4%	0,88	51	38,2%	9,3%	41,9%	13,15	12,52
Blake Griffin	35,1%	0,88	51	46,2%	12,0%	45,5%	16,98	10,6
Boris Diaw	12,9%	0,89	47	60,6%	29,8%	47,4%	28,49	13,63
Carlos Boozer	34,0%	0,85	66	44,7%	12,2%	42,6%	10,63	10,4
David West	40,1%	0,96	19	47,6%	10,1%	49,8%	14,07	9,84
Dwight Howard	45,1%	0,74	119	44,4%	18,2%	40,9%	7,38	15,4
Elton Brand	15,3%	0,92	39	46,3%	5,7%	44,8%	10,87	8,6
Joakim Noah	10,4%	0,61	158	31,9%	21,0%	32,0%	22,43	14,96
Jonas Valanciunas	26,7%	0,88	51	48,4%	21,4%	44,8%	8,67	15,83
Luis Scola	18,0%	0,86	62	45,7%	12,3%	44,3%	14,23	9,25
Marc Gasol	36,0%	0,95	26	44,0%	7,9%	48,1%	20,74	10,72
Pau Gasol	24,4%	0,87	56	42,2%	12,2%	46,3%	18,67	10,73
Paul Millsap	21,9%	0,85	66	43,0%	11,6%	45,0%	14,07	9,88
Spencer Hawes	13,2%	0,93	35	54,0%	6,9%	39,8%	14,97	11,35

Sources are Synergy and Hoopdata

[white men can't jump]

First off, I think these numbers show that JV is already on a pretty good development pace in the post. Needs to better his passing and limit turnovers, but the rest is coming along very nicely. I think this diminishes the need for a post-presence who demands a lot of touches, and definitely makes it so you don't want a guy who'll take away from JV and Amir's ability to do what they do.

THis means getting a guy who's still a decent all-around offensive player, and passer, as the 3rd big. Considering that I don't especially want to deal with the costs that come with Pau or Boozer, either assets or contract-wise, and you can probably throw Millsap in there, in terms of potential targets, that leaves fewer choices. Especially when you consider, once again, that I expect JV's role to increase.

The guy has to fit with JV and Amir though. To me, I keep coming back to Scola. He is a good post-up player. Not the best in any way, but good at everything, and also not the worst at anything. He has few weaknesses in his offense. He is solid scoring in the post, and passing out of it. He can also face up a bit, especially as a midrange shooter, and he is comfortable in the pick'n'roll. There would be defensive worries, but that is another issue. This thread seems to focus mostly on offense.

And something that I really like about Scola. He'll already be coming off a season where he played 26.6 mpg. 25-30 mpg seems about perfect for the 3rd big. Expect JV and Amir to get at least the same, likely more, and a 4th big, likely a C, to eat up what's left. He literally could slide into what the team is already doing and fit right in. Since he doesn't need to be used in the post, but is good there, he can be used in different spaces that fit the styles of our other bigs.

I also really like Elton Brand, but I think he won't be able to carry as much of an offensive load. That might not be a problem, and if it isn't, he's still a very solid defensive player, and maybe the best option if D is the priority.

[Soft Euro]

Valanciunas is doing very well. The turnovers are high and also expected. His passing needs to be better though. It would be nice to get a big that can pass. Diaw still has a one year contract (for a little less than 5 million) but he might actually be an interesting option as he can make the pass to cutters which would be good for Amir and Valanciunas.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

For me, there are two intangibles that aren't included in that comparison, which are key factors for me determining who should be the Raptors' starting PF next season: proven ability to consistently draw double-teams and awareness/ability to initiate/faciliate team ball movement.

The main reason why I would prefer Johnson to be the team's backup PF (3rd big) is because he isn't enough of a consistent offensive threat to draw double-teams via posting-up, nor does he strike me as an above-average ball mover. I want a starting PF that provides the team with another option (after Lowry's passing and drive-and-kicks) for running the offense through. The starting PF should be a proven post presence who draws double-teams and is smart enough to either score, dump off the ball to another big or cutter, or kick the ball back outside (for either an open 3pt shot or to start around-the-perimeter ball movement).

IMO, it's not just about post-up scoring, but more about the entire presence. Since Valanciunas has already shown to have a decent touch on short-mid range jumpers and the ability to run the P&R, he and the new starting PF could be used interchangeably, alternating low-post and high-post play. Love, Millsap, Gasol and Boozer (though I hate the contracts of Gasol & Boozer) seem like the best fits, but would likely require giving up DeRozan/Ross in trade (except for Boozer, per the Bargnani rumor).

[Soft Euro]

For me, there are two intangibles that aren't included in that comparison, which are key factors for me determining who should be the Raptors' starting PF next season: proven ability to consistently draw double-teams and awareness/ability to initiate/faciliate team ball movement.

I think Assist Rate gives a very good indication of the quality of ball movement. There isn't any public stat about drawing double teams, but I'd be willing to bet that there is a high correlation between high percentage of usage in the post combined with high efficiency and double teaming.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I think Assist Rate gives a very good indication of the quality of ball movement. There isn't any public stat about drawing double teams, but I'd be willing to bet that there is a high correlation between high percentage of usage in the post combined with high efficiency and double teaming.

I agree with the second point, but I don't agree with the comment about assists. Yes, finding an open big, a cutter or an open 3pt look will result in assists. However, if the PF draws a double-team, kicks the ball out and then the ball gets moved around the perimeter while the defense struggles to react (think of the Bosh/Calderon/Parker days), the PF will have been the initiator/facilitator of ball movement without actually getting an assist. The offense is run through that PF, but it won't show up in any stat.

[Soft Euro]

I agree with the second point, but I don't agree with the comment about assists. Yes, finding an open big, a cutter or an open 3pt look will result in assists. However, if the PF draws a double-team, kicks the ball out and then the ball gets moved around the perimeter while the defense struggles to react (think of the Bosh/Calderon/Parker days), the PF will have been the initiator/facilitator of ball movement without actually getting an assist. The offense is run through that PF, but it won't show up in any stat.

I agree, but even though there might not be a one on one relation, players that hold the ball and don't kick it out will have a low assist rate, while players who do kick it out at the right time and to the right player will also be the ones who find players that are open, thus have a higher assist rate. I think there is a high correlation here as well.

[omgsomuchpotential]

Give JV 15-20 touches a game = WIN

[enlightenment]

I want Spencer Hawes SOOOO bad.

[white men can't jump]

I want Spencer Hawes SOOOO bad.

Serious or sarcasm?

[RandomGuy]

Serious or sarcasm?

Serious sarcasm.

[TRX]

In no particular order, as plausible choices, I like Pau, Hawes and Diaw. As good as West is, he would eat a ton of possessions and I don't know how good he would be for the development of the other bigs.

[Soft Euro]

Why do you (and others) want Hawes? He's not really good at anything (in my opinion of course).

[TRX]

Not that he's particularly special or anything, but I think he's a bit underrated. He's a solid rebounder, solid finisher at the rim, slightly above average passer, has some range all the way out, can play both the 4 and 5 and doesn't really hurt you much anywhere. He's also only making $6.5 million next year as an expiring contract if it doesn't work out.

I think I prefer Pau Gasol first and foremost of the three, then Diaw, then Hawes if I were to actually order them.

[Kuh]

In no particular order, as plausible choices, I like Pau, Hawes and Diaw. As good as West is, he would eat a ton of possessions and I don't know how good he would be for the development of the other bigs.

I'd actually like Ed Davis ... damn!!

[enlightenment]

Why do you (and others) want Hawes? He's not really good at anything (in my opinion of course).

Look at the OP.
Let me start off by saying he is 7 foot 1 and is 24 years old.

Then notice how at every stat for post ups, he is in the top 5 (top 4 ppp, top 2 fg%, top 2 TO in post ups [the good kind of top 2 for TO])

Spencer also shoots 36% from 3
and averages 7 rebounds, 1.4 blks in 27 minutes.

Spencer Hawes is so freaking good its hilarious..
Hawes for Bargs straight up, and we will get ourselves a HUGE steal.

Amir Hawes and Val would be AWESOME. Id almost prefer him over Carlos Boozer

[white men can't jump]

Look at the OP.
Let me start off by saying he is 7 foot 1 and is 24 years old.

Then notice how at every stat for post ups, he is in the top 5 (top 4 ppp, top 2 fg%, top 2 TO in post ups [the good kind of top 2 for TO])

Spencer also shoots 36% from 3
and averages 7 rebounds, 1.4 blks in 27 minutes.

Spencer Hawes is so freaking good its hilarious..
Hawes for Bargs straight up, and we will get ourselves a HUGE steal.

Amir Hawes and Val would be AWESOME. Id almost prefer him over Carlos Boozer

Except in actual usg in the post. Spencer Hawes has little, if any, post game

[Matt52]

If Bargnani could eventually return Hawes, I'd be fine with that. Cheaper, expiring contract and more useful skillset. I forgot that he was just 24... well 25 two days ago.

[thead]

Anyone think since Atlanta is rebuilding, that Al Horford could be on the table. I'd give up a fair amount to get him

[white men can't jump]

Anyone think since Atlanta is rebuilding, that Al Horford could be on the table. I'd give up a fair amount to get him

Are they? I mean, it's widely believed they will trade Smith and turn him into mostly young pieces/picks...but will they gut the team? Or will they aim for the bottom of the playoffs again?

But if Horford's on the table, I'd really want to go after him. That might be a scenario where I could part with Demar. Or, if they would actually take Bargnani (they might lack size badly if Smith walks and they shop Horford), then throw in at least Ross, and maybe a pick. I really like Horford. I think he can play both F and C as well, so I don't think it creates issues with JV and Amir. SMart player, great leader, solid all-around skills on both ends of the court.