Everything Bargnani: Grumble, Grumble, Grumble

[Miekenstien]

Even though there is a reply button, that doesn't mean you always have to use it.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaa

[draftedraptor]

What proof do you have that he's peaked? Most guys in this era peak at around 28-32 in my opinion.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...duncati01.html

TimD was 25 when he peaked. now look up other players at 4/5 in the all-time greats and tell me how many players improved dramatically after 26.

It is because he is a poor rebounder. Guaranteed. Book it.

Forget his rebounding. It is because he is not exceptional in anything he does. He is barely league average in half the thing he does. Mainly because we continue to suggest/make future moves to accommodate Bargnani rather than make him 6th man.

Some of the criticism Bargnani gets is really devoid of any sane objective analysis, as has been the case for a long time, and as I have about an hour to spare ...

Before this year (and even this year, mainly at the beginning) the main point of the people in the ant-Bargnani camp was something like: "i'm not complaining about his offense it is his defense which I find to be that bad, that he's hurting the team." (Of course this was accompanied by criticism of his rebounding). But when you looked at the situational stats which could and can by found on synergy, Bargnani didn't too bad. Sebastian Pruiti wrote a piece about this, saying that Bargnani wasn't that bad on individual defense. The counter by the ant-Bargnani camp was that his stats were made to look good because Bargnani always defended the weaker player. My research this summer proved that statement to be not supported by facts. I didn't do that research with the intent to prove that statement wrong as I was really wondering myself. I for one, have critised his offense on here and elswhere (which means to friends of mine willing to talk about it) because I always thought (and think) that with his skillset he should be able to be more efficient than he has been (even if he has a supporting cast unable to adequately spread the floor).

But now, something different is happening. Nowadays apparently at least part of the focus has switched to the offense of Bargnani as a main point of criticism. To me it's pretty evident why this is, it's because it's getting harder to attack his defense. Now some people are saying that Bargnani has plateaued and this statement is supporting by primarily looking at his offensive stats.

Now, I ask you, why not look at the defensive stats as well? Why not look to his overall impact on the team? If he improved those, what does that mean for the idea that he plateaued?

As you probably remember, somewhere in january there was the news that Bargnani was at the top of defenders in the league when looking at the situational defensive stats of synergy. That was after about 10/11 games. One clear point of criticism was that the sample size was small, which I agree with. But now, after the season, the sample size of course has increased. This does not mean that these are sacred stats, but they cannot be ignored as well (if you want to be somewhat objective) and they do tell a story.

Some comparisons:

PPP (Points allowed Per Possession)
Bargnani 0,73 (on 234 possessions)
Lebron James 0,8 (673 p)
Dwight Howard 0,75 (306 p)
James Johnson 0,92 (441 p)
DeMar DeRozan 0,92 (519 p)
Jose Calderon 0,93 (622 p)

Another interesting way to look at Bargnani's influence on the team overall is to look at the Offensive (OffRtg) and Defensive rating (DefRtg) with Bargnani on and off the floor (all stats from nba.com).

In 2010-2011 that didn't look too good:
On court:
OffRtg 104,5
DefRtg 112,5
NetRtg -8,0

Off court:
OffRtg 101,4
DefRtg 106,3
NetRtg -4,9

I'd say 'Ooops'... One could argue that he was a starter on a bad team and was going up against the best players, but in reality it probably was more than this alone. His missfit as a defensive anker on a bad defensive team was pretty clear if you compare his stats to those of Calderon. With Calderon off court the Netrating dropped from -5,3 to -8,4. With Calderon off court the Offensive rating dropped 3 points, while the defensive rating didn't improve (even dropped a bit).

But now, lets look at this year's ratings of Bargnani:

On court:
OffRtg 102,3
DefRtg 103,3
NetRtg -1,0

Off court:
OffRtg 96,7
DefRtg 100,6
NetRtg -4,0

That's looking much better, his relative impact is very cleary a positive one when you look at this stat. And it's saying to me, that there is no reason to assume that Bargnani is at his peak, is only getting worse, or anything like it. There are clear signs, beyond the eye-test, that Bargnani's overall impact on the team has significantly improved this year (even though there was inconsistency and regressing after his injury those are translated in the stats). My personal opinion on this is that there was already an improvement in individual defense last year and it has continued this year. His teamdefense did improve a bit this year but is not where we'd like it to be but I would be very interested to see him next to a (team)defensively capable (and agile) center.

Let's try to be a little bit objective, and look at Bargnani's overall game instead of singling out those things that support our argument, especially when we don't back it up (but those who don't, well, they don't and probably won't).

I don't think anyone is questioning bargnani's offense which is easily the most consistent and best in the current roster. In fact I ask bargnani fanboys to be more realistic and think of him as a special player (no pun intended) with limited role in the team like Kyle Korver. The truth is bargnani cannot be compared with the likes of Dirk or Gasol unless he is unstoppable in offense or does a real job in D against true big men. more dodgy stats to prove his worth? how about defensive rating per area covered? I am sure he would score quite high there. The truth is bargnani's defense while much improved is still quite poor for a F/C and he was guarding weaker players. The truth is the raps were better as a defensive unit with/wo bargnani.

[Matt52]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...duncati01.html

TimD was 25 when he peaked. now look up other players at 4/5 in the all-time greats and tell me how many players improved dramatically after 26.

What others have done does not provide proof that Bargnani has peaked. It is possible Bargnani has peaked but comparing him to others isn't a surefire way to back up the claim.

Forget his rebounding. It is because he is not exceptional in anything he does. He is barely league average in half the thing he does. Mainly because we continue to suggest/make future moves to accommodate Bargnani rather than make him 6th man.

The rebounding was me with my tongue planted firmly in my cheek.

Could you be more vague? Specifics please otherwise it is white noise.

Who is the we in the bold above?

I don't think anyone is questioning bargnani's offense which is easily the most consistent and best in the current roster. In fact I ask bargnani fanboys to be more realistic and think of him as a special player (no pun intended) with limited role in the team like Kyle Korver. The truth is bargnani cannot be compared with the likes of Dirk or Gasol unless he is unstoppable in offense or does a real job in D against true big men. more dodgy stats to prove his worth? how about defensive rating per area covered? I am sure he would score quite high there. The truth is bargnani's defense while much improved is still quite poor for a F/C and he was guarding weaker players. The truth is the raps were better as a defensive unit with/wo bargnani.

This is a weak rebuttal to Soft Euro, in my opinion. Clearly you either did not read or comprehend much of what he wrote.

One thing to consider for the last sentence: did it occur to you that without a training camp and limited practice time, the team got better on defense due to Casey's having more time to teach and implement? I know I'm just another Bargnani fanboy but the post offers no new insight and is certainly far from accurate in the big picture.

[slaw]

Slaw, you're the only one I've encountered try to suggest that this wasn't Bargnani's best season in the limited time he played. His defense improved a lot. His scoring is down but he was dinged up and was slow to get back into things before being shut down for good. Had he stayed healthy this probably would have been a great campaign that would have landed the Raptors in the back end of the lotto.

Well, couple things. This wasn't Bargs' best offensive year. Although, as I've stated before, the numbers are pretty much in line with what he did last year. There isn't much difference. So, I think the best that can be said for his offensive game is that what he did in 2010-11 (and even going back to 09-10) looks sustainable. Again, he is what he is. The numbers show no appreciable upward trajectory year over year.

Defensively, well, my point here has always been that the defensive improvement was a function of the staff. The entire team improved. Amir and Davis went down 8 and 9 pts respectively. Derozan and Calderon went down 6. James Johnson went down over 10 pts. Point being that the DRTGs were less about individual player improvement and more/all about team improvement. I couldn't find the PPP stat that Soft Euro quoted but assuming the methodology is good, it does suggest a positive. I would like to see those numbers year over year alongside spot up stats cause I wonder how much of it is influenced by the fact he regularly guards the worst offensive opponent big.

The other note here is something alluded to in your post: his limited playing time. Last year he missed 16 games and this year 35. Now I grant that there were some mitigating factors but Bargs was very durable his first 4 years. Since he's become a high USG%, focal point player he has not been very durable. Surely, if we're talking about a player's career trajectory, the fact that he couldn't stay on the floor this year doesn't bode well.

Look, I've never been anti-Bargs. He is what he is and as stretch 4 he could be an extremely useful player as a 3rd option off the bench (a giant Harden). But he isn't a focal point of a contender. He has never been and he won't be. Right now is as good as it gets.

[torch19]

Forget his rebounding. It is because he is not exceptional in anything he does. He is barely league average in half the thing he does. Mainly because we continue to suggest/make future moves to accommodate Bargnani rather than make him 6th man.

Funny thing is, Bargnani is actually just right around the league average in most statistical categories, with exception to points per game, rebounds per game and free throw % (basic statistics)

He is below the league average significantly in 1 category: three point percentage (although his career average is slightly higher)

So if anything, he is an average NBA player with exceptional scoring capabilities, free throw shooting and a capable rebounder by average NBA player standards (not taking into account his position). He is also a proven three point shooter and his clutch scoring is more than 10% higher than NBA average.

For a 7 foot man to display the kind of touch he has showcased, I would consider that exceptional. He is by no means perfect or the guy, but a $9M price tag to go along with his production who meets average standards in all statistical categories and surpasses the average in a few (once again: ppg, ft%, clutch scoring and reb -- even though this one is misleading),
...... I would consider him a solid player for the Toronto Raptors.

& we are talking about paying Nic Batum slightly more than Bargnani ... go figure, the hate generates from the expectations of a #1 overall pick, but his salary does not indicate this status)

[Matt52]

Funny thing is, Bargnani is actually just right around the league average in most statistical categories, with exception to points per game, rebounds per game and free throw % (basic statistics)

He is below the league average significantly in 1 category: three point percentage (although his career average is slightly higher)

So if anything, he is an average NBA player with exceptional scoring capabilities, free throw shooting and a capable rebounder by average NBA player standards (not taking into account his position). He is also a proven three point shooter and his clutch scoring is more than 10% higher than NBA average.

For a 7 foot man to display the kind of touch he has showcased, I would consider that exceptional. He is by no means perfect or the guy, but a $9M price tag to go along with his production who meets average standards in all statistical categories and surpasses the average in a few (once again: ppg, ft%, clutch scoring and reb -- even though this one is misleading),
...... I would consider him a solid player for the Toronto Raptors.

& we are talking about paying Nic Batum slightly more than Bargnani ... go figure, the hate generates from the expectations of a #1 overall pick, but his salary does not indicate this status)

I have always wondered what would have happened had the Raptors picked 5th like they were suppose to and got Bargnani at 5 versus 1.

[LBF]

Even though there is a reply button, that doesn't mean you always have to use it.

Duh... That's why there's a quote button.

[Miekenstien]

Duh... That's why there's a quote button.

haha

[OnTheRightTrack]

Here is the list of salaries for 2012/13 for players in Bargnani's economic snack bracket ($7.5 million plus). I have excluded franchise players (Kobe, LBJ, DWade etc) and historic albatross contracts (Lewis, Arenas, Davis etc).

1. Amare Stoudemire $19.9
2. Joe Johnson $19.7
3. Pau Gasol $19.0
4. Elton Brand $18.0
5. Andrew Bynum $16.5
6. Zach Randolph $16.5
7. Rudy Gay $16.5
8. Al Jefferson $15.0
9. Carlos Boozer $15.0
10. Marc Gasol $13.9
11. Kevin Love $13.7
12. Emeka Okafor $13.5
13. Josh Smith $13.2
14. Andrew Bogut $13.2
15. Danny Granger $13.1
16. LaMarcus Aldridge $13.0
17. Nene Hilario $13.0
18. Kevin Martin $12.9
19. David Lee $12.7
20. Ben Gordon $12.4
21. Al Horford $12.0
22. Gerald Wallace $11.4
23. Hedo Turkoglu $11.4
24. Monta Ellis $11.0
25. Corey Magette $10.9
26. DeAndre Jordan $10.5
27. David West $10.0
28. Stephen Jackson $10.0
29. Richard Jefferson $10.0
30. Andrea Bargnani $10.0
31. Luis Scola $9.4
32. Andris Biedrins $9.0
33. Shawn Marion $8.6
34. Rodney Stuckey $8.5
35. Devin Harris $8.5
36. Mo Williams $8.5
37. Brendan Haywood $8.4
38. Marvin Williams $8.3
39. Lamar Odom $8.2
40. Michael Beasley $8.1
41. John Salmons $8.1
42. Charlie Villanueva $8.0
43. Tyrus Thomas $8.0
44. Jameer Nelson $7.9
45. Kendrick Perkins $7.8
46. Marcus Thornton $7.6
47. DaSanga Diop $7.5

While there is endless debate and statistics on his (in some peoples eyes) glaring shortcomings and (in other peoples eyes) his undeniably unique skills. The fact of the matter is that there is no right answer to whether or not Bargnani should be traded.

He should not be traded for the sake of ridding the team of him - he is not getting in the way of any player who potentially has a higher ceiling than he does (apologies to those that still have high hopes for ED), and to those who say you can't win with him as your franchise player so get rid of him - you are half right - he's not a franchise player (but he's not getting paid like one) so you don't HAVE to get rid of him.

On the other side of the fence, to those that say you can't trade him, he's our best offensive player. You too may be half right, he is likely our best offensive player, but he is not a franchise player, so if you can get a better player or players for him you do the deal. In my view this does not mean cap space or a lottery pick (unless you believe it is a can't miss franchise type pick).

If you look at the list above and the salaries associated with the players it is hard to argue that Bargnani is decent value for his contract in comparison to his salary peer group. Certainly there are players on that list you'd rather have than him at current contract rates, but I would argue there are far more that you wouldn't. (remember to be as critical of the other teams players shortcomings as you are of ours).

I would love to hear people's thoughts.

[Puffer]

...Certainly there are players on that list you'd rather have than him at current contract rates, but I would argue there are far more that you wouldn't. (remember to be as critical of the other teams players shortcomings as you are of ours).

I would love to hear people's thoughts.

Bang on. Thanks for putting that list together, in this context.

[draftedraptor]

I see everyone is quoting Bargnani's salary as an excuse now.

Good post OntheRightTrack.

The problem is you cannot compare bargnani's salary directly to players like Pau. Pau is earning a lot of money right now as he signed his last big contract with the biggest team in the NBA after having proven himself as an incredible talent. But if you look at what he or even franchise players (which was left out) like TimD were earning at 26 I bet it will not be very different from Bargnani's salary right now. If you do an age-adjustment and also account for size of the team Bargnani's contract value will drop down further. This is why Calderon's contract (which will not be any higher) is better than Bargnani's in my books.

AlHorford , Monta who are the same age as Bargs are better comparisons than players like Pau from the list. Sure there are worse contracts than bargnani in the league but from the raps viewpoint it is one of the highest and immediately subject to criticism if it is not backed up by all-star performances (like a Bosh). If we had Bynum and Kobe in our team bargnani will be viewed more favorably of course. But we are not the lakers and the earlier point about trading a non-franchise player with the biggest contract and trade value cannot be dismissed by fanboys.

[OnTheRightTrack]

draftedraptor, not sure if first line was serious or not, I am by no means trying to make excuses for Bargnani. Frankly, my personal opinion is that I don't care if he stays or goes. What I do care is whether or not we get better value for those dollars.

When you state that Pau is not the best comparison, I would agree. Where I differ is in trying to compare to what Tim D was making when he was 26 - market was different then and Tim D by your own admission is a franchise player. Additionally age is not really a defining factor as players enter the league at different ages. The most reasonable comparisons are players who have signed their second contracts since entering the league. The two you list, Horford and Monta are good examples, but so are Tyrus Thomas, Charlie Villanueva, Marvin Williams, Mo Williams, Devin Harris, Rodney Stuckey, Andis Biedrins, Ben Gordon, David Lee, DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Martin, LaMarcus Aldridge, Danny Granger, Andrew Bogut, Emeka Okafor, Kevin Love, Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, Andrew Bynum and Joe Johnson.

Some great players in there - and some with good value contracts, but imo Bargs on average, delivers reasonable market value at worst. Again, this is not a comparison to bad contracts - this is a comparison to all contracts in his comp range. What this tells me is that when he was re-signed it was as a "good" player at good value - not a franschise player by any means (or he would be earning $16.5 million).

I guess my overall feeling is that we have way bigger issues than AB. We are way short on talent.

What the Raps should be doing (again in my opinion) is looking to add top end talent where, if he is still here (has not been used to acquire top end talent) then Bargs becomes your third offensive option ( after a dynamic pg and a dynamic wing - neither of which we have). Then we would have the makings of something. BC has some tools this summer to do just that.

If we stay at 8 in the draft I would probably target Rudy Gay in a trade. Not because he is my favorite wing that might be available but because he is the "most available" for the assets we want to use. Memphis has said they will not be a tax team - if they are going to trade Gay it is to get some future value and reduce salaries. I would offer (before July 1st) Ed Davis, Gary Forbes and our 2013 first rounder. Obviously Memphis is not getting near full value for Gay but they are getting a young, cheap big who is controllable and a future first that they probably expect would be in the lottery and most importantly for them, room to manouver.

With our pick at 8 I would look at Perry Jones or Lillard (I think we have to swing for the fences- not take a safe pick) Another option would be trade down for an asset and take Tony Wroten (again a very unsafe pick, but with a large high risk upside)

We would still have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions to use for veteran role players along with Bird rights for Bayless, Gray and Weems (to either have them return or for S&T purposes again for veteran role players.)

If BC plays his cards right - and the biggest challenge will be the trade for a wing - I think we could have a 4, 5,6 in the east type team next year with lots of room for future frowth.

[Matt52]

I see everyone is quoting Bargnani's salary as an excuse now.

An excuse for what? His value? Object and criticize away but he is hardly a drain on the franchise.

Good post OntheRightTrack.

The problem is you cannot compare bargnani's salary directly to players like Pau. Pau is earning a lot of money right now as he signed his last big contract with the biggest team in the NBA after having proven himself as an incredible talent. But if you look at what he or even franchise players (which was left out) like TimD were earning at 26 I bet it will not be very different from Bargnani's salary right now. If you do an age-adjustment and also account for size of the team Bargnani's contract value will drop down further. This is why Calderon's contract (which will not be any higher) is better than Bargnani's in my books.

The problem with this post is it is not objective. Comparing Gasol's contract to Bargnani's contract is silly on a number of levels. First off the NBA contracts are based on years experience. Gasol signed his last extension when he was 30. Bargnani still has 3-4 seasons to reach the same point in time as Gasol. Prior to Gasol being traded to the Lakers he was considered by many to be a Chris Bosh-like player - good enough to demand top dollar but not good enough to carry a franchise. Bargnani is about $5M under top dollar. Secondly, statements like "I bet...." are opinion. We get it, you are not a fan of Bargnani. But as I asked before, can you add some new insight to support your opinion? Biases and opinions are fine but not when presented as fact. As to what Tim Duncan earned at 26, it was max money at the time which was $12M. However, max salaries are based on a percentage of the salary cap. In 2002, the NBA salary cap was $40M so Dunan's salary was 30% of the cap. In 2012, the cap is $58M and Bargnani's salary is just 17% of the cap. Putting today dollar terms on Duncan's contract puts him at $17.4M. So your statement, in my opinion, is unfounded and, quite frankly, absurd - again just my opinion.

AlHorford , Monta who are the same age as Bargs are better comparisons than players like Pau from the list. Sure there are worse contracts than bargnani in the league but from the raps viewpoint it is one of the highest and immediately subject to criticism if it is not backed up by all-star performances (like a Bosh). If we had Bynum and Kobe in our team bargnani will be viewed more favorably of course. But we are not the lakers and the earlier point about trading a non-franchise player with the biggest contract and trade value cannot be dismissed by fanboys.

I'm not sure where the all the Pau Gasol talk came from. OnTheRightTrack didn't bring him up. Personally, comparing $19M to $10M is hardly apples to apples and very difficult to judge comparable value from such a large spread (nearly 100% more). If we look at the list of players +/- $2.5M we have:

20. Ben Gordon $12.4
21. Al Horford $12.0
22. Gerald Wallace $11.4
23. Hedo Turkoglu $11.4
24. Monta Ellis $11.0
25. Corey Magette $10.9
26. DeAndre Jordan $10.5
27. David West $10.0
28. Stephen Jackson $10.0
29. Richard Jefferson $10.0
30. Andrea Bargnani $10.0
31. Luis Scola $9.4
32. Andris Biedrins $9.0
33. Shawn Marion $8.6
34. Rodney Stuckey $8.5
35. Devin Harris $8.5
36. Mo Williams $8.5
37. Brendan Haywood $8.4
38. Marvin Williams $8.3
39. Lamar Odom $8.2
40. Michael Beasley $8.1
41. John Salmons $8.1
42. Charlie Villanueva $8.0
43. Tyrus Thomas $8.0
44. Jameer Nelson $7.9
45. Kendrick Perkins $7.8
46. Marcus Thornton $7.6
47. DaSanga Diop $7.5

To me this is more of a fair comparison of similar contracts and value. Looking at the list, how many players are a better 'value' or a better contract than Bargnani or a preferred player to have? Personally I only see Horford and Ellis (who both make more than Bargnani, fwiw) as you mentioned.

I'm assuming your point is because Bargnani is the highest paid player, he must be an All-Star. I do not agree. The reality is given his contract he is a very good player if the above list is any indication. Also what happens when or if the Raptors get an all-star but they have shipped off all their talented or supporting cast? Sacramento is struggling to find an all-star and has loads of cap space - what benefit is that? Or what about Cleveland/LBJ situation - great centre piece but no flexibility to add players due to overpaid veterans and overall lack of talent to get a championship won. What about Luol Deng in Chicago? Using your thinking, Deng should have been shipped out long before Rose arrived on the scene - and where would the Bulls be without Deng now? Probably looking for a wing scorer and defender.

Trading away your second highest paid and arguably best player because your team is still building and searching for an All-Star does not seem like a fool-proof way to build a contender.

[Puffer]

...Trading away your second highest paid and arguably best player because your team is still building and searching for an All-Star does not seem like a fool-proof way to build a contender.

++++1

[NoPropsneeded]

in my opinion he should only be traded if we get lucky and draft Anthony Davis. Otherwise we keep him to go along with the core, i like the way Indiana is built and i think our team when its all said and done, will be much better.

[LBF]

Who doesn't like the way Indy is built?

I don't see why Bargnani needs to be traded unless it was for someone significantly better than him like Josh Smith or a high potential upcoming player like Derrick Williams.

[Nilanka]

I acknowledge the incredibly weak source, but it's been a slow week, and we need something new to discuss.

Boozer was mentioned in trade rumors before the deadline this past season and now he is rumored on the move again. The latest from Paul Grossinger of Bleacher Report suggests they make a deal with Toronto for Andrea Bargnani.

Both these players have under-performed and a change in scenery is possibly the best option. The Raptors would get a veteran that could help bring along the young front-court players in Toronto and Chicago would be better off without the distraction Boozer has become with his play.

http://sports.gather.com/viewArticle...81474981352310

Keep in mind that Boozer is set to earn $15 million next season, while Bargnani will be earning $10 million. So a straight-up trade may not work.

Regardless of salary, would you make this trade?

[Matt52]

I acknowledge the incredibly weak source, but it's been a slow week, and we need something new to discuss.



http://sports.gather.com/viewArticle...81474981352310

Keep in mind that Boozer is set to earn $15 million next season, while Bargnani will be earning $10 million. So a straight-up trade may not work.

Regardless of salary, would you make this trade?

Not in one million years.

[yertu damkule]

Not in one million years.

ditto.

as much as i'm not a fan of bargs, there are certainly players that i actually despise on a level that goes beyond basketball...and boozer is one of 'em.

not that they should or will, but they could do a straight-up trade. as TO is under the cap & can absorb more money. they probably have room to eat all of boozers contract (or close to it), so could - in theory - trade a pick or a low-$$ player for him. again, doing so makes zero sense....on a team like this, boozer puts them firmly in treadmill territory.

[LBF]

Boozer is npt worth it.