Everything Bargnani: Grumble, Grumble, Grumble

[Krix]

Very interesting Buddah.

As for his scoring compensating for his rebounding. What happens when he has a bad shooting night?

[Macc]

He hasn't finished his career yet, so you can't call him the worst 7' rebounder in history. He's improving every year. You can't compare someone who hasn't even hit they're prime yet to players who are retired, in their prime, etc. Plus coming off the bench half of his career and playing with a rebounder like Bosh you're entire career isn't going to help that stat either.

All I'm saying is, let's give the kid a real chance before labeling him with shameful titles.

[CB4]

What he lacks in rebounding, he make up in scoring. I have a feeling that both those numbers are going up this year...

Rebounding is at a premium. A lot of players on the Raptors can score but few can rebound. I think his rebounding totals will go up simply because Bosh leaves, not because he is fighting, boxing out, our being in the right position for them.

[Buddahfan]

I have been thinking about this

My line of thought about this at this time is just this.

It seems to be and appears to be that there could be for big men

a sixth sense that is critical to have in order to be a good team defender and another sixth sense that is critical to have in order to be a good rebounder.

So what is the stroke of genius here?

Hold on a second and I will type it.

The stroke of genius is that while a player can be taught to box out and other fundamentals of rebounding and team defense

The biggest part of rebounding is having that sixth sense of where the ball will bounce before it even hits the rim and then working your butt off to get it.

So to it seems to me with team defense. It is a matter of having that sixth sense of knowing where to be on the court and any given time as the play unfolds and then working your butt off to be there.

While you can be taught the fundamentals of good rebounding and playing good team defense you either got it or you don't

All you can do is continue to work hard which hopefully will yield some improvement in these areas.

However, it seems to me that the bottom line in all this is good rebounders and team defenders are born with some innate sense.

if you haven't got that sixth sense on knowing where to be on the court when the shot is released before it hits the rim and/or as the play unfolds you will never get it.

Yes coaching can help you but it seems to me only up to a limited extent.

It is like if you are only 6'2" and can't jump all the coaching in the world is not going to turn you into a good shot blocker.

So to its seems to me with rebounding and team defense. If you can't do both of them well by your second or third year in the NBA especially as a starter, the chances are that you never will do either one of them well although you may show some minor improvement.

For example regarding Bargnani's rebounding rate

Here is his rebounding rate per 36 minutes by year since he has been in the NBA

06-07---------5.6
07-08---------5.6
08-09---------6.1
09-10---------6.3

Not really much of an improvement over the last three seasons, a little over 10% or a bit over 3% a season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...bargnan01.html

Will he get better numbers playing next to Johnson or Davis vs Bosh?

Rebounds Per 36 minutes last season

---------Tot--Def Reb
--------------------------
Bosh----10.8---7.9
Johnson--9.8---6.0

So at the most there could be two more rebounds per 36 for Bargnani to grab based upon the simple numbers assuming that Johnson doesn't improve and that Davis isn't any better than Johnson at rebounding which he could be.

So in the final analysis here the conclusion that I have come to is that appears to me that Bargnani's rebounding numbers per 36 minutes in 10-11 will not go up much if at all from those in 09-10. Maybe 10% - 15% at the most which would still leave him best case at not much better than about 7 rebounds per 36 minutes. This it seems to me will be the best case and in fact his rebounding number per 36 minutes could remain basically unchanged in 10-11 vs 09-10.

Just my opinion.

[Frankthetank]

Saying that ANdrea is the worst rebounder in history and the guy is 24 years old is moronic. Most nba players were only in their second year at 24 years old. SO if you can judge a 24 year old on his career already then you must have some psychic ability.

[JoePanini]

Bargnani can only improve, but even if he averages 7 rebounds a game, it's how he plays on both ends which is more important.

[Buddahfan]

Saying that ANdrea is the worst rebounder in history and the guy is 24 years old is moronic. Most nba players were only in their second year at 24 years old. SO if you can judge a 24 year old on his career already then you must have some psychic ability.

Well according to as I recall our esteemed leader, Arse, or maybe it was Appllo, NBA players max out statistically in their numbers per minute on the court when they are 25.

The NBA rule of thumb is 5 years of on court time or 25 whichever comes sooner.

This will be Bargnani's 5th year.

Good luck with his numbers making big improvements

It wouldn't surprise me if he only averaged about 20 ppg or even less in 10-11.

The team has a lot more scorers than him.

I have already addressed what I think his rebounding numbers might be in 10-11

My expected stat line for him in 10-11 is 19.5 ppg and 6.5 rpg.

I hope I am wrong and he does better, seriously, but I am not optimistic.

[jlongs]

Personally, I could care less if Bargnani rebounds better. But what I do care about is that he, at the very least, boxes out his man and prevents him from getting the board. And then someone else on the team can grab the board (like Marion did when he was here). No rebound for Bargs, but still Raps get the board. Everyone except stat junkies happy.

What annoys me most is that when a shot goes up, Bargnani's first instinct is to watch the ball, when it should be find his man and box him out. That said, when watching Ed Davis, you can really see that his first instinct (at least from what I've seen) is to find a man to box out. Only after that will he face the ring to try and grab the rebound.

[Frankthetank]

Buddah your wrong about when big men develop. Statistically 28-29 is the big mens best year. I would say from 25-29 is peak years for big guys. Weaker big guys tend to develop later in the 25-29 cycle. Really Bargni's next four years will dictate his success.

[Balls of Steel]

Personally, I could care less if Bargnani rebounds better. But what I do care about is that he, at the very least, boxes out his man and prevents him from getting the board. And then someone else on the team can grab the board (like Marion did when he was here). No rebound for Bargs, but still Raps get the board. Everyone except stat junkies happy.

What annoys me most is that when a shot goes up, Bargnani's first instinct is to watch the ball, when it should be find his man and box him out. That said, when watching Ed Davis, you can really see that his first instinct (at least from what I've seen) is to find a man to box out. Only after that will he face the ring to try and grab the rebound.

AMEN!!!!!! I'm a high school teacher and have been involved with basketball and young teens. What do we teach them as far as fundamentals are concerned - find out a man to box out. I spent an inordinate amount of time just watching Bargs play during games to observe what he does without the ball and there is a shocking rate of inactivity on his part when the ball goes up. Here's the scary part - sometimes there's no difference in his reaction after he takes a shot and misses or someone else takes a shot and misses. I mean, he's not athletic but can move for a big man. He needs to show a little bit of hunger for, in the very least, boxing out your man. I'm not saying he be Noah or Lee hungry but just a little.

[nubreed000]

What he lacks in rebounding, he make up in scoring. I have a feeling that both those numbers are going up this year...

1. No he doesn't

2. I have a feeling the sun will rise tomorrow. Of course the numbers will go up. It's a default since he's the number 1 option.

[Buddahfan]

Personally, I could care less if Bargnani rebounds better. But what I do care about is that he, at the very least, boxes out his man and prevents him from getting the board. And then someone else on the team can grab the board (like Marion did when he was here). No rebound for Bargs, but still Raps get the board. Everyone except stat junkies happy.

What annoys me most is that when a shot goes up, Bargnani's first instinct is to watch the ball, when it should be find his man and box him out. That said, when watching Ed Davis, you can really see that his first instinct (at least from what I've seen) is to find a man to box out. Only after that will he face the ring to try and grab the rebound.

That is not true. Why?

Because if Bargani boxes out successfully it will reduce the Raptors opponents "second chance point total per game". So his boxing out will show up in a team stat which is far more important than an individuals stat.

[Buddahfan]

1. No he doesn't

2. I have a feeling the sun will rise tomorrow. Of course the numbers will go up. It's a default since he's the number 1 option.

He will only be the #1 option

1. In the half court game - I expect the Raptors to score an awful lot in fast breaks.
2. He will only be the number #1 option on three point shots, not on post play or mid range shots
3. If say DeRozan and Kleiza get hot in a game and Bargnani not so much then he will fall to the third option in that game. Or even if Barbosa, Jack, Davis, Weems get hot and Bargnani is cold, Triano will milk that for as long as it keeps working.

Bargnani is no Bosh when it comes to scoring and especially getting to the free throw line. So he may start out a game as the #1 option but the Raptors have a lot of other players who can also score, so if they get hot and he goes cold he will no longer be the #1 option in that game unless he later gets hot. He is not like Bosh who the Raptors could at least count on getting to the free throw line and making his free throws if his jump shot was not falling.

[jlongs]

That is not true. Why?

Because if Bargani boxes out successfully it will reduce the Raptors opponents "second chance point total per game". So his boxing out will show up in a team stat which is far more important than an individuals stat.

Nah not really, because what happens if Bargs successfully boxes his man out, but someone (like say Kleiza) fails to box his man out, and his man gets the board, will it still be Bargnani's fault for not having enough rebounds on the stat sheet to show for?

Bargnani has his deficiencies in defense, but him and his rebounding weren't the sole reason that the Raptors were dead last in defense last season. It's just that the team sucked as a whole. So it doesn't matter if only Bargs and his rebounding improve, or even his boxing out, while the rest of the team still sucks.

[Macc]

That is not true. Why?

Because if Bargani boxes out successfully it will reduce the Raptors opponents "second chance point total per game". So his boxing out will show up in a team stat which is far more important than an individuals stat.

Not true to an extent. People are going to see it as a team stat and will still pin things on is below average rebounding numbers when things go wrong. Sure it may go: when Bargnani is on the floor there are less second chance points. But when the Raptors are ranked 28th or so in the league in rebounding it will go: Bargnani should be averaging way more rebounds for a 7'. Which stat do you think people are more likely to realize?

[blaze89]

bargnani is by no means a prototypical center and couldnt rebound a beachball so i think he is

[blaze89]

bargs is not a prototypical center by any means and couldnt rebound a beachball a one-dimensional player thats it

[Buddahfan]

Not true to an extent. People are going to see it as a team stat and will still pin things on is below average rebounding numbers when things go wrong. Sure it may go: when Bargnani is on the floor there are less second chance points. But when the Raptors are ranked 28th or so in the league in rebounding it will go: Bargnani should be averaging way more rebounds for a 7'. Which stat do you think people are more likely to realize?

The average basketball fan still looks primarily at the scoring. Rebounding is nice for the average fan but they want scorers on their team. I would venture to guess that the average basketball fan might be familiar with the basic +/- now that it is the box score but as far as other advanced metrics goes forget it.

People understand scoring. Understanding advanced basketball metrics is another story altogether. When it comes to numbers what people don't understand in sports they often poo poo as meaningless primarily because they don't understand it.

They understand that big men should rebound and guards should get assists but again those are simple box score stats.

I would love to see the NBA start to include "second chance points" in their team stats including the net differential. They always talk about this during games.

I have never done a study but I bet that there is a strong correlation between team differential on "second chance points" over a season and its team winning percentage.

In the end rebounding numbers aren't as telling because even if the other team gets a lot of offensive rebounds unless they convert them into second chance points it doesn't mean very much. Of course the more second chance opportunities that you have the greater the chance of getting more second chance points, but in the end it seems to me that it is the differential in second chance points between teams that is more important than just wining the rebounding count.

Just my opinion.

[RaptorRoo]

nubreed000: Thanks for pointing out the obvious and not getting sarcasm...Considering he wasn't the number one option or maybe even number two with Hedouche around, last season he still managed almost 18 points per...Does that make it even more obvious to you?

[Buddahfan]

nubreed000: Thanks for pointing out the obvious and not getting sarcasm...Considering he wasn't the number one option or maybe even number two with Hedouche around, last season he still managed almost 18 points per...Does that make it even more obvious to you?

Too many, well you can't have too many actually, scorers on the Raptors team, a number of which can shoot better than Bargnani and get to the foul line better than him.

Barbosa and Kleiza are far superior scorers to Wright and Turk. Davis will be a far superior scorer to Reggie/Rasho
DeRozan and Weems offense will both be significantly improved in 10-11.
Calderon if still around and Jack will take more shots with Bosh gone.
Even the "Garbage Man" will get a lot more touches take a lot more shots per game in 10-11 then he took last year. They will even start running plays for him in 10-11. You can put that one in the bank 4sure.

People who think that the Raptors game plan on offense is to replace Bosh with Bargnani are in my opinion only kidding themselves and you don't need statistics to come to that conclusion.

Of course the proof will be in the pudding as they say