Everything Bargnani: Grumble, Grumble, Grumble

[RaptorRoo]

Good point Frankthetank, if you check the history of big men most didn't become great scorers or rebounders until after 5 years in the league which would put them in their late twenty's...Bargnani is still developing his body and skill set and this past summer playing with the Italian nationals will definitely help that progression...

[RaptorRoo]

Buddahfan: I think it's safe to say that anyone with half a brain doesn't expect Bargnani to do Bosh numbers this season, but this season won't hinge on one player...This is a new era for the Raps with a new system and philosophy...It's also safe to say that regardless of your abbreviated point of measure Bargs will not go down as the worst rebounding 7 footer. In fact, He will finish his career at a very respectable level...

[Buddahfan]

Buddahfan: I think it's safe to say that anyone with half a brain doesn't expect Bargnani to do Bosh numbers this season, but this season won't hinge on one player...This is a new era for the Raps with a new system and philosophy...It's also safe to say that regardless of your abbreviated point of measure Bargs will not go down as the worst rebounding 7 footer. In fact, He will finish his career at a very respectable level...

A number of posters here and even some bloggers and LSSM types are expecting Bargnani to have a major improvement in his scoring this coming season. You can refer to them however you want.

We disagree on Bargnani's potential as a good rebounder. While he eventually will probably not be the worst 7' rebounder in NBA history for players that play over 10,000 career minutes I don't think that over the next 15 years we will see many worse then him at the 7' level. Just my opinion.

[RaptorRoo]

He WILL have a major improvement in scoring simply because his skill set is improving. However that doesn't mean Bosh levels this season, but hopefully in the next 2-3 years...

[Tim W.]

Okay, it's been a while since I've had the time to post here, but this subject is one that will bring me back for a moment.

Okay, Bargnani is a very bad rebounder. No one can realistically argue against that. And after 4 years in the league, it's pretty evident that he is what he is. Players who have played the number of minutes Bargnani has in the four years he's played, and hasn't had any setbacks such as injury, don't make much of an improvement. All these excuses about him only being 24 or that big men develop late, or that someone like Andrew Bogut made a big jump after four years don't make any sense when you look at the fact that any player who has played significant minutes over his first four years and has not missed significant time to injury, don't generally make big improvements.

In four years, Bargnani's rebounds per 36 minutes have gone from 5.6 rpg to 6.3 rpg. At that rate, he might hit double digits when he's 40.

And those who believe that his offense makes up for his weak rebounding need to learn a lot more about the game of basketball, quite frankly. First of all, his offense is simply not that good. He's a good scorer, but he's not a great scorer and probably never will be. And unless Bargnani is scoring 30 ppg, and in an efficient manner, his lack of rebounding is unforgivable. I've made this argument ad nauseum, and no where better than here...
http://www.wearingfilm.com/picketfen...inst-bargnani/

[Arenick]

He isn't a basketball player that rebounds, we just have to get used to that.

[Frankthetank]

Tim W all you need to do is go look at Shaq, garnett, J. oneal, gasol, all they're stats peak from 25-29. Its very simple go look at their stats. Why argue when you can just look it up. No one is mixing andrea for moses malone but Andrea will average 10 rebounds per 36 minutes at least ones in his career. If he does I hope that tim and buddahmolester will apologize to Andrea for judging him before he's turned 25. Maybe we should judge tim and buddah's life by how successful they were as teenagers. Oh they're teenagers

[yertu damkule]

Tim W all you need to do is go look at Shaq, garnett, J. oneal, gasol, all they're stats peak from 25-29. Its very simple go look at their stats. Why argue when you can just look it up. No one is mixing andrea for moses malone but Andrea will average 10 rebounds per 36 minutes at least ones in his career. If he does I hope that tim and buddahmolester will apologize to Andrea for judging him before he's turned 25. Maybe we should judge tim and buddah's life by how successful they were as teenagers. Oh they're teenagers

yes, that's true, but you have to at least acknowledge that their respective 'peaks' were not that far removed from what they had each done earlier in their careers. it's not as though shaq was averaging 7 boards/game for his first 4 years & then blew up to 13 in season 5; they each merely improved (i.e. 'peaked') a modest amount over what they had previously accomplished. for bargs to get into the realm of respectability in terms of rebounding, he'd have to have a near-50% improvement in his raw #'s...and even that wouldn't put him into per-36 double-digits.

[Buddahfan]

Tim W all you need to do is go look at Shaq, garnett, J. oneal, gasol, all they're stats peak from 25-29. Its very simple go look at their stats. Why argue when you can just look it up. No one is mixing andrea for moses malone but Andrea will average 10 rebounds per 36 minutes at least ones in his career. If he does I hope that tim and buddahmolester will apologize to Andrea for judging him before he's turned 25. Maybe we should judge tim and buddah's life by how successful they were as teenagers. Oh they're teenagers

I disproved that on my other Bargnani thread. Most of them reached their peaks within their first five years.

I am not a NBA basketball player

[RapthoseLeafs]

.
This topic has been discussed ad nauseam. For all you "intuitive" Kreskins out there - give it a break.
.

[Wendell25]

Fact is, Bargnani just isn't that great ... I know and understand that he gets much love in Toronto, but really, he's an average or below player. I gave him some slack when he looked awkward in the first couple of years, but he has only somewhat refined a not so great game. "Worst 7 footer rebounding-wise" is not surprising ... really bad for a #1 overall pick ... definitely. There have definitely been some bad overall #1s, but he's right up there. In the second round he'd look fine ...

He was 90th in the NBA in 3-point shooting last year (and not even close to being the best shooting Raptor), so I don't think you're going to sell him as some kind of 3 pt specialist. His rebounding pretty much stinks (really, just not so good) ... so if the claim is that he doesn't rebound because he's out on the perimeter practicing his "speciality" which he's 90th best at ... man, you're just reaching. It's not that I dislike the guy, but he's either got to put on some pounds, develop some technique and get rebounding, or make something of his time on the perimeter. Personally, if you tell me you've got this great guy who's seven ft tall, basically doesn't rebound and shoots .372 from three where he spends most of his time ... no thanks.

Next year is going to suck for Bargnani ... there are zero people on the Raptors who will require serious attention now, so he will not get open looks even as much as he used to. It's also not like they're loaded with amazing people to feed him the ball anyway ... and why should Jack or Calderon give him the ball? They both shoot the three better than Bargnani.

If he was traded, he'd be a reserve getting a small number of minutes (and I don't even know what they'd put him in to do).

[RecklessIndifference]

Good to see Turk low on that list. Kind of sad we had two active players from the last list on our team last season.

[Tim W.]

Tim W all you need to do is go look at Shaq, garnett, J. oneal, gasol, all they're stats peak from 25-29. Its very simple go look at their stats. Why argue when you can just look it up. No one is mixing andrea for moses malone but Andrea will average 10 rebounds per 36 minutes at least ones in his career. If he does I hope that tim and buddahmolester will apologize to Andrea for judging him before he's turned 25. Maybe we should judge tim and buddah's life by how successful they were as teenagers. Oh they're teenagers

As has already been mentioned, what each player averaged after four years was not very far off from their peak. Why do you assume Bargnani will average 10 rpg at least once? Is there ANY evidence to support this? I've never seen a player go from a below average rebounder to an above average one. That's like assuming that a player who came into the league as a below average offensive player will eventually average 20 ppg. Why?

As for judging us when we were teenagers, you know that's not the same thing. First of all, Bargnani is certainly not a teenager. He's 24 years old. If you drafted a 7 footer who was 24 years old but was a poor rebounder, would you assume he would one day average double figures? What would make you do that?

This is not judging some raw, gangly project and trying to anticipate what they'll be like in 4 or 5 years. Bargnani is a four year veteran in the league. You look at any big man who has played in the NBA who played the number of minutes Bargnani has and he was pretty much what he was at that point. Sure, many make some improvements, as I expect Bargnani to do, but you're expecting him to make major developmental leaps at his stage, which simply doesn't happen.

Again, I bring up Amir Johnson. DO you also expect him to average 20 ppg at least once in his career? If no, why not? It's easier to average 20 ppg than 10 rpg.

[Buddahfan]

As has already been mentioned, what each player averaged after four years was not very far off from their peak. Why do you assume Bargnani will average 10 rpg at least once? Is there ANY evidence to support this? I've never seen a player go from a below average rebounder to an above average one. That's like assuming that a player who came into the league as a below average offensive player will eventually average 20 ppg. Why?

As for judging us when we were teenagers, you know that's not the same thing. First of all, Bargnani is certainly not a teenager. He's 24 years old. If you drafted a 7 footer who was 24 years old but was a poor rebounder, would you assume he would one day average double figures? What would make you do that?

This is not judging some raw, gangly project and trying to anticipate what they'll be like in 4 or 5 years. Bargnani is a four year veteran in the league. You look at any big man who has played in the NBA who played the number of minutes Bargnani has and he was pretty much what he was at that point. Sure, many make some improvements, as I expect Bargnani to do, but you're expecting him to make major developmental leaps at his stage, which simply doesn't happen.

Again, I bring up Amir Johnson. DO you also expect him to average 20 ppg at least once in his career? If no, why not? It's easier to average 20 ppg than 10 rpg.

If he can solve his foul problem this season to stay on the court for 30 plus minutes a game eventually within a couple of seasons he will average between 18 - 20.

Triano will give him the chance in 10-11 to man up. If Johnson can man up and stay out of foul trouble Triano will give him 30 plus minutes a game.

If Johnson can't man up this season and continue to be a "foul machine" then most likely he will be destined to being a career bench energy guy who will probably average something like

mpg------25
ppg------12-14
rpg-------6-7

going forward

post all-star in 09-10 over 30 games he averaged

mpg------19
ppg--------8
rpg--------5

That works out to about 11 points and 7 rebounds for 25.

His offense will continue to get better.

Last October everyone, except fans here who have followed his career, thought he was just a garbage man with no offensive potential. By the end of 09-10 the stats as well as a number of Raptors personnel and writers said the was the best player on the team in rolling to basket.

He still has a lot more growth in his offense. You have to really have followed his career in order to know why this is true.

[Balls of Steel]

Lamarcus Aldridge, Barg's other big man partner in the 06 draft has career averages of 16 pts and 7 rebs. Clearly he's not the man in Portland but as a complementary player to Roy. If we all accept that Bargs will never defend or rebound (according to his height) and will be a Robin for life then perhaps we should just watch for DeMar to grow into Batman. Then we'll really see what this team's about. Let's just hope Batman grows up soon.

[RaptorRoo]

Tim W: Make up your mind! On one hand you say his offense is simply not that good. Then in your next sentence you say he's a good scorer. Do YOU even know what your saying? Bargnani is a late bloomer simply because he grew up playing a European style of bball which emphasizes scoring over rebounding even for 7 footers. That being said, he has adjusted well and improved steadily each season (with the exception of his sophmore season slump). To ASSUME that he has peaked after only 4 seasons is not only ridiculous but also shortsighted. Last season was arguably his best, and now this season he will have an even more instrumental role on this team. He MAY never be a consistent double digit rebounder but he will be and 8-9 rpg player all the while scoring 22-24 ppg, and that makes him very valuable. Just because YOU havent seen the progression in development of talented players in the NBA after their first 4 seasons doesnt mean it hasnt happened or isnt possible of happening. Waaaaaaaaaaay too early to close the book on Bargs...

[Tim W.]

RaptorRoo,

Apparently you need to take a closer look at what you're reading. This is the paragraph to which you were referring:

"And those who believe that his offense makes up for his weak rebounding need to learn a lot more about the game of basketball, quite frankly. First of all, his offense is simply not that good. He's a good scorer, but he's not a great scorer and probably never will be. And unless Bargnani is scoring 30 ppg, and in an efficient manner, his lack of rebounding is unforgivable.

I think it's evident that I was saying that Bargnani is a good scorer (he scored 17 ppg which IS good), but certainly not good enough to make up for his lack of rebounding. "Good, but not good enough, and certainly not great". Clear enough for you?

As for Bargnani's improvement, it hasn't been nearly as much as his backers seem to think. His improvements in most of the categories is mainly due to an increase in the number of minutes he plays. And some areas have actually gotten worse. He actually got to the line at a a career low rate this past season, and he wasn't good at it to begin with.

In four years, per 36 mpg, Bargnani has seen his ppg increase by 1.1 ppg, his rpg increase by 0.7 and his bpg increase by 0.2. His fouls per game have gone down 1.2. His three point percentage and apg have fluctuated. His spg have actually gone down consistently.

Statistically, Bargnani has improved only a little. His biggest increase came in his minutes per game. In four years, his post game has gone from bad to barely passable for a seven footer. He actually got to the line at the lowest rate of his entire career last season, which is certainly not good considering he actually took the fewest 3 point shots and shot at a higher rate than any previous season.

As for him averaging 22-24 ppg and 8-9 rpg, I simply don't see it happening. There's been nothing to suggest he's got it in him. Nothing. I think he COULD average 22 ppg on a bad team, but he doesn't get to the line enough, doesn't create enough for himself and doesn't move well enough without the ball to be able to score efficiently. You're not going to be able to be a good team with Bargnani scoring 22-24 ppg because you can't be a good team with your leading scorer being so inefficient.

As for rebounding, all I've read from his backers is that he WILL average 8-10 rpg, but no one has given any evidence to back themselves up. I might as well say that Amir Johnson is going to eventually average 25 ppg. Obviously all evidence points to the contrary, but that won't stop me from saying it. In four years, he's improved his rebounding by 0.7 rpg over 36 mpg. Last year he averaged 6.2 rpg in 36 mpg. So in four years, if he continues the same progression, he'll end up averaging just under 7 rpg. At best, I see him averaging 7 rpg over 36 mpg, which is still bad for a 7 footer. And that's assuming he continues to progress at the same rate.

Your comment about assuming he has peaked makes no sense. NO ONE has said he has peaked, and I even stated on another thread that Bargnani should continue to see some improvements, but there's a difference between continuing his gradual rate of improvement and seeing big developmental leaps that some of you guys are suggesting.

No one is closing the book on Bargnani, but if he were anyone else or on any other team, I'm pretty sure fans wouldn't be making up so many excuses for him.

[RecklessIndifference]

Addition by subtraction.

This is my only reason why I think Andrea's #'s will arc slightly different than the other people we are comparing him to.

Chris Bosh is gone. Chris Bosh got the majority of the touches (for good reason). Chris Bosh was our go to guy. Chris Bosh was our best player. Period.

But, that being said maybe I'm the only one who noticed this, and maybe it's just my slight hate for Bosh.

Not every rebound is equal in quality, some rebounds you really fight for, and some fall into a group of players from the same team. To me it seemed like every close rebound was given to Chris. He wanted it, he grabbed it. Fair enough. I think by default there are going to be more opportunities given to Andrea. He doesn't have the athletic ability of Chris, but he's just as strong and slightly taller. I DO NOT think he will get 10 rpg, but I think you guys are wrong in thinking this year is going to be status quo as far as his career arc.

The ball will be given to him way more than in years past. He doesn't have to worry about Chris getting his touches or holding the ball for the remainder of the shot clock.

The rebounds will come, and maybe it will be Amir that has a huge bounce in his rpg, or maybe Davis will be our guy.

But the fact is this is Andrea's year to shine. This is his opportunity to show the world that he can be the guy, or atleast an important part of this system. Do or Die time. Those other players were almost always the guy, and there game developed from there on out. I think this situation is a little different.

[JoePanini]

Okay, all this crap about him having a very slight improvement in rebounding per 36 minutes over his career is pissing me off. Situations change, statistics aren't all that matter. Watch him on the court, see how he plays, see how his body changes over the summers. It's all hard work, it all pays off, and we all saw it on the court. Maybe his stats didn't knock us off our feet, maybe his stats didn't improve very much, but as a player, he has improved considerably. From coming into this league as a skinny 220 pound euro guy that could ONLY shoot, to a guy that now weighs over 250 pounds and can actually defend the post against other bigs, and post on them on the offence. He is a guy that averages 1.4 blocks a game on a team that doesn't play offence. He averaged 17 points a game as a second option, which is pretty good actually. If you don't think Bargs has improved since joining this league, wait no. Let me rephrase, if you don't think that Bargs has improved CONSIDERABLY since joining, and has improved every summer, then you really need to get off your computer, and watch him play. Sorry.

[Buddahfan]

As for rebounding, all I've read from his backers is that he WILL average 8-10 rpg, but no one has given any evidence to back themselves up. I might as well say that Amir Johnson is going to eventually average 25 ppg. Obviously all evidence points to the contrary, but that won't stop me from saying it.

25 ppg - RFLMAO - 18 - 20 ppg will be his max if can stay out of foul trouble enough to play 30 + minutes a game for a full season.

Saying Johnson will ever average 25 ppg for a season is like saying Jack will someday average 10+ apg.