Everything Bargnani: Grumble, Grumble, Grumble

[Apollo]

Without a doubt there's no site that can predict the drafts picks to a T, but it's interesting that there's such parity between the 2 on certain players. At the end of the day it's a persons opinion though, right?

Here's the key thing to remember. These two sites go about things very differently.

NBAdraft.net gives you a mock draft based on the inverted standings all season long. Their whole mock draft is based on a order that probably would come to reality. They're slotting guys in at places based on team need and player talent and so it's not ranking the players from best to worst.

DraftExpress.com gives you a prospect ranking for most of the year. They're ranking from best to worst in their opinion. They offer mock good mock drafts leading up close to the draft. Because of this I personally feel they are the better product. Opinion stops at talent evaluation and doesn't include who might be drafting where.

[Tim W.]

He could have averaged 48 minutes for all I care. The Raptors have been all over the place in his previous years. From playoffs to lottery bound never any consitency. I can't even imaging the different combination and number of players that have come and gone in the previous 4 years hes been here. The key is the Raptors never had defined role for him. He basically wasted four years standing at the 3 point line. I don't know whose fault that is but that's not what you drafted him for. For example with Demar his role is growing systematically year by year. Each summer hes expanding a different aspect of his game, and the coaches are instructing him to play to his strenghts, but more importantly giving him the in game repetition to develope those skills hes practising and look what the results have been. Maybe if we would have been in a rebuild or not so focused on developing Bosh, things would have progressed much quciker for Andrea. So don't give me this he played 30 + minutes bullshit. 30 is just a number and wanna know something even cooler. If you multiply his 30 min avg by the number of games he played you would also get his total minutes played for the year isant that so cool I just love stats.

What do you mean they've never had a defined role for Bargnani. Except for the brief period when Jermaine O'Neal was a Raptor, he's been groomed to be, and then later became, the Raptor's starting center. As for the minutes he played, I really don't see how they're irrelevant, except that they go against your argument. Playing a lot of minutes generally means that a player is being given a chance. If you want to pretend they don't, then by all means do that, but don't try to convince any reasonable person otherwise. Most young players would kill to be given the chance that Bargnani has been given on the Raptors.

Your argument, unfortunately, is yet another excuse about how Bargnani's issues are the fault of others, and not himself.

I don't see how Davis has a higher ceiling that Bargnani unless your talking about Defence. Davis has shown little inclination for hitting wide open jumpers, making free throws or having any resemblance of a post up game. The majority of his points are the result of wide open dunks or offensive rebounds. Since he is a complete liablilty on offence he is left open and should be getting rebounds and putbacks. Seems to me like Andrea has a much easier hill to climb. See ball grab ball. Inflate rebound numbers shut you up.

Davis has the second highest shooting percentage and true shooting percentage on the entire team. He moves very well without the ball, knows where to go and be on offense and sees the floor well. He's also an excellent rebounder. To call him a liability on offense is ridiculous. You don't have to be a threat to hit a 15 foot jumper to be a threat on the offensive end. If Davis' man leaves him, there's a very good chance that Davis will end up scoring on him, so he can't be left alone on offense. Thus, he's not a liability on the offensive end.

Besides, Davis has shown a lot of flashes of offensive ability, including a developing post game and the ability to hit the short jumper. Besides, learning how to hit a jumper is probably the easiest basketball skill to learn.

[ezz_bee]

After the positive feedback I got from my “in-depth study: Amir Johnson’s contract vs. the NBA”, I decided to do one for Andrea Bargnani (Albertan_10 put the bug in my ear so if you like it, thank him, if you don’t tell him where to go and how to get there!) Just when I had all my research complied, “The Rumor” broke. At first I wasn’t sure whether it was worth posting given that he may not be around next season, but after putting in four hours of cutting/pasting/searching/page jumping I wasn’t going to throw in the towel. Besides, it might give us a better idea of what level of player he is, and whether he will be wanted on another team. Also, when it comes to Andrea Bargnani, what do we even know about him?!?!?

Position: Plays Center, but might be better suited to play the PF or even the SF?
Talent and Potential: Either a franchise player in the making or back-up towel boy for the Iowa Energy.
Trade Value: I have no friggin’ clue.

Bargnani is the dead horse on this site, but I guess we just can’t help ourselves. I’ll state my bias at the outset: Was ok with his selection as a No.1. I watched his first couple seasons with optimism. I was disappointed with his lack progress (IMHO) last season, and this season he has failed to impress me at all. I wouldn’t call myself a “hater” but if I zero love for the “big spaghetti” and were I the gm I would’ve shopped him at the deadline. However, A LOT of my disappointment stems from the fact that Bargnani IS a former No.1 and has the largest contract on the team (although Jose makes more this season). My first step in trying to figure out whether Barg’s is boom or bust was to try to get a sense of where he is on the allstar/starter/bench player/scrub spectrum.

All salaries are complements of our friends at HoopsHype.com
W/ Statistics provided by Basketball-Reference.com
My spreadsheet is available to those who want it, by contacting me.


Bargnani’s contract looks like this

2010-2011: 8 mil
2011-2012: 9 mil
2012-2013: 10 mil
2013-2014: 11 mil
2014:2015: 12 mil

Bargs makes 8 mil this year, and 12 mil in his final year for an average salary of 10 mil. So where would those salaries (8,10, 12) show up on other teams, using their current roster salaries?


Western Playoff teams Eastern Playoff Teams
San Antonio 5th, 4th, 2nd Chicago 3rd, 3rd, 2nd
Lakers 5th, 4th, 4th Boston 5th, 3rd (tied w/ Ray Allen), 3rd
Dallas 6th, 5th, 3rd Miami 4th, 4th, 4th
Oklahoma 2nd, 2nd, 2nd Orlando 5th, 4th, 4th
Denver 3rd, 3rd, 2nd Atlanta 5th, 4th, 3rd
Portland 5th, 3rd, 2nd Philly 3rd, 3rd, 3rd
Orleans 4th, 3rd, 2nd New York 4th, 4th, 4th
Memphis 3rd, 3rd, 3rd Indy 4th, 3rd, 1st

West Lottery Teams East Lottery Teams
Houston 3rd, 3rd, 2nd Charlotte 3rd, 1st, 1st
Phoenix 3rd, 3rd, 2nd Milwaukee 4th (tied w/ Salmons) 3rd, 2nd
Utah 5th, 3rd, 3rd Detroit 4th, 4th, 2nd
Golden State 5th, 4th, 1st New Jersey 2nd, 2nd, 2nd
Clippers 3rd, 2nd, 1st Toronto 2nd, 1st, 1st
Sacramento 2nd, 2nd, 1st Cleveland 3rd, 3rd, 3rd

FINDINGS:
@ 8 mil you would be the 4th highest paid player on a Western Conference Playoff team OR an Eastern conference playoff team. You would be the 3rd highest paid player on a Western lottery or Eastern lottery team.

@10 mil you would be the third highest paid player on a Western Conference team either playoff or lottery. You would be the 3rd or 4th (3.5) highest paid player on an Eastern Conference Playoff team and 2nd or 3rd (2.5) highest paid player on an Eastern Conference lottery team.

@ 12 mil you would be the 2nd or 3rd (2.5) highest paid player on a Western Conference playoff team and the 3rd highest paid player on an Eastern Conference playoff team. You would be the highest or 2nd (1.5) highest paid player on a Western Conference lottery team and 2nd highest paid player on an Eastern conference lottery team.

OVERALL average : 2.974666(repeating)
Therefore, Bargnani gets paid like the 3rd highest paid player, not the highest or even the second highest paid player. Whether that means he should be/ or is the 3rd best player on our team is anyone’s opinion.

Okay, we’ve established that compared to the salaries of players on the other NBA teams Bargnani gets paid like the 3rd best/highest paid player. So who do we compare him to? I thought about comparing Bargnani to the 3rd best player on other teams, but that is pretty subjective, plus I haven’t seen enough of other teams to do so with any confidence. A more straight forward way would be to compare him to the 3rd highest paid player on every other team, but the variance in salary and position made those comparisons tricky and the findings dubious.

Instead I once again combed the rosters of every NBA team to find comparable contracts of PF/C. I came up with this list

Lamar Odom
Tyson Chandler
Nick Collison
Nenê (Does he only have 1 name, like Madonna?)
LaMarcus Aldridge
Marcus Camby
Emeka Okafor
David West
Anderson Varejao
Andre Blatche
Charlie Villanueva
Joel Pryzbilla
Mehmet Okur
Eddy Curry
Luis Scola
Chris Kaman
David Lee
Andris Biendrins

FUN FACT: Nick Collison is the highest paid player on this list, this year, @ 13.3 million. However, he is the lowest paid player on this same list next year when he makes only 3.3 million. Ouch!

I compared these players using per game stats, Per 36 Stats, and Advenced Metrics, here’s how Bargs did

@his current Salary he is 14th of 19
@ his avg. Salary he is 10th of 19
Compared to other players w/ 3yr contracts or greater he is 5th out of 12
Compared to other players on 4 yr or greater contracts he is 3 of 7

PER GAME
Games Played: tied for 9th w/ David Lee
Games Started: tied for 7th w/ David Lee
Minutes/Game: 2nd behind Aldridge
FGA: 1st (Aldridge 2nd)
FG%: 14th
3pt Attempts: 2nd behind Villanueva
3pt %: 3rd, behind Villanueva (1st), and Odom (2nd)
FT attempts: 2nd, behind Aldridge
FT%: 1st (West 2nd)
Rebs: 15th
Rebs: 14th
Tot. Rebs: 15th
Assists: 9th
Steals: 12th
Blocks 13th
TO: 2nd
Fouls: 13th
Points: 2nd, behind Aldridge
Age: 17th, only Blatche & Biedrins are younger @ 24



PER36
FGA: 1st
FG%: 14th
3PA: 2nd, behind Villaneuva
3pt%: 3rd, behind Villaneuva and Odom
FTA: 2nd(3rd), behind Nenê (2nd) Curry was actually first in this category but since he only played 7 games and averaged only 10 minutes per I removed him from most categories.
FT%: 1st, West 2nd
ORB: 18th, ahead of Villaneuva
DRB: 19th (aka dead last)
TRB: 19th (aka the opposite of first)
Assists: 11th
Steals: 16th
Blocks: Tied for 15th w/ Collison and Scola, ahead of only Curry (18th) and Lee (19th)
Turnovers: 4th (3rd if you don’t count Curry, behind only Blatche and Kaman)

Fouls: Tied for 18th (Last) with Aldridge. Found this really interesting, because you could argue that Bargs SHOULD foul more (aka be more aggressive on ‘D’) but then do you also have to say the same thing about Aldridge?

PTS: 1st ahead of Scola, Aldridge, West.

Advanced Metrics
PER: 7th, Aldridge (1st), Nenê (2nd) West (3rd)
TS%: 13th, Chandler (1st), Nenê (2nd), Collison (3rd)
eFG%: 14th, Chandler (1st) Nenê (2nd), Okafor (3rd)
ORB%: 18th, ahead of only Villanueva, Camby (1st), Chandler (2nd), Okafor (3rd)
DRB%: DEAD, Camby (1st), Pryzbilla (2nd), Chandler (3rd)
TRB%: LAST, Camby (1st), Chandler (2nd), Okafor (3rd)
Assist%: 11th Okur (1st), Odom (2nd), Lee (3rd)
Steal%: tied for 15th w/ Kaman. Blatche (1st), Biedrins (2nd), Nenê (3rd)
Block%: 14th, Camby (1st), Okafor (2nd) Kaman (3rd)
To%: 15th (5th best) behind Villanueva (1st), Okur (2nd), Aldridge (3rd) Scola (4th)
Usage%: (if you don’t count Curry) 1st, West (2nd), Aldridge (3rd)
ORtg: 13th, Chandler (1st), Nenê (2nd), Collison (3rd)
DRtg: 1st (read last-or tied for last w/ Curry if you don’t remove him)
OWS: 9th, Aldridge (1st), Nenê (2nd), Chandler (3rd)
DWS: 17th Odom (1st), West (2nd), Okafor (3rd), Aldridge (4th)
WS: 13th, Aldridge, Nenê, (1st), Chandler (2nd) West (4th)
WS/48: 14th, Chandler (1st) Nenê (2nd), Aldridge (3rd), West (4th)


Bargnani is great at FTA & %, 3PA & %, not fouling people, and no team relies on their players from this list the way that Toronto relies on Bargnani. He has a good PER and takes care of the ball* or does he?. The rest of his offensive stats are average-below average. Unfortunately he rebounds like a zombie grandfather and his defensive rating and win shares are also at the bottom of the list.

It is difficult to place him in this list because of the variance in his stats, but I think the most reflective statement would be that Bargnani is an average to below average performer in comparison to this group of players

The good news that despite be an average to below average player Andrea has an average to below average salary, meaning that we probably aren’t losing a lot of value right now and that he would still retain decent value on the open market.

The bad news is that unlike Amir’s contract which goes up in value year over year, Bargnani’s goes down in value UNLESS he improves his production/efficiency.

If you didn’t think Bargnani was going to improve significantly over the next 1-2 years then THIS OFFSEASON would probably be the best time to move him. (I’d love to say that I sent this report to Coangelo a week ago and take credit for the rumour, but that would be a lie.)

An Unlikely Ending
Despite being off the Barg’s train for a solid year and a half, this exercise has changed my opinion of Andrea, if only by a little. He is basically being paid as if he was the 3rd best player on another team and based on how he measures up against other 3rd best players he is only average or below average, Yet all these other 3rd best players have a couple of things Bargnani doesn’t: actual best and second best players on their roster to draw the attention of the defense or guard the tough assignment. Bargnani is being relied upon like he IS out best player despite his limited abilities and corresponding contract. Even though defenses have focused on him and we’ve asked him to shoulder a lot of the offensive load, he has shown some offensive improvement--albeit this is offset by his diminished rebounding and win shares. Bargnani is NOT a player to build around, however, I am more inclined to agree with those Bargnani “moderates” who say that in the right system/coach/teammates he could be very efficient/effective. I have a feeling that the stigma he carries as a former number 1 and the way the franchise has marketed him in the past will keep him from being that kind of a role player here in Toronto, but only time will tell.

Thank you for taking the time to read this article. Feel free to let me know what you think. Criticism is always welcome!

edit: it’s 4am and I need to sleep. I’ll make the links work and fix and spelling/grammar I can find in the morning, until then hope it’s readable!

[Matt52]

The point of the link was to provide a view that is not a rarity even in NY these days. I would actually have somewhat less regard for the NY viewpoint simply because they "actually" think they know most about the game...and these are the same people who hailed his signing a few years ago.

Since the trade for Melo, the roster in NY is not geared towards D'Antoni's style of play. Melo is one of the worst defensive players in the league. Look at the success DEN has had since he left and the comments from George Karl regarding why they have turned it around. D'Antoni took over NY with the understanding the franchise was in shambles and it would take a couple of seasons to compete. The whole plan was to clear the roster and sign FA's - unfortunately just because they built it the FA"s did not come.

Regarding Sarver and his spending: He took over before the 04-05 season and Shaq was traded for before the 08 playoffs. In the interim the payroll for the team was 05-07 was 119 mill, 82 mill & 71 mill (all in lux. territory I believe). JJ was traded Aug '05. The payroll was 119 mill. Far be it for me to grieve for ownership on spending large but I would think the spending was a bit overthetop. He then got a bit tired of a lack of results and decided to take Kerr's advice on direction change (Shaq & defense). Entitled dont you think as would ownership here (I prefer BC to stay more because of the timing re the pos. of the franchise)? Shaq was a horrible acquisition but shit happens. And I also understand DAntoni's frustration at the end. No question his input was non grata at the end ...something I believe he had quite a bit with BC.

I'm not sure where you got the money information but the salary in 2004-2005 was 28th in the league at $43.1M, 2005-2006 was 24th in teh league at $53.6M, 2006-2007 was 7th in the league at $65.4M, and 2007-2008 was 10th in the league at $70.7M. In D'Antoni's last year in PHX they did go in to the luxury tax by $2.9M and since they did not win, Sarver dismantled everything. How long did Porter and Kerr last there despite spending $76M in 2009? In 2010 they were back at the bottom of the league at 22nd in payroll with $64.8M and this year they are 19th with $65.7M.

Anyway where was I. My opposition to DAntoni as coach today with the Raps is simply that I am tired of the disregard and unaccountability afforded to the defensive side of the ball since BC has been here. I think he has seen the light but pieces of unsubtantiated rumor like this show up and start discussions like this. I just dont think the team is a fit for the old DAntoni (he hasnt changed yet). My idea of a fit would be someone like Adelman (probably a hard get).

I guess people do not care to discuss apples to apples. The roster in NY has never been geared towards D'Antoni's style of play. The closest it ever got was the start of this season. The trade for Melo ruined the progress that had been made. Again comparing apples to apples, if you look at the number of points given up per game compared to the league, then yes, they play little to no defense. In Phoenix, opponents PPG ranked 25th in 2008, 23rd in 2007, 28th in 2006, and 30th in 2005. This is to be expected considering opponents get many more FG attempts in the 7 second or less offense. However those same years if you consider their defensive rating (points per 100 possessions) they were 16th in 2008, 13th in 2007, 16th in 2006,and 17th in 2005. This is a little below the so called great defensive Sam Mitchell coached teams.

One last point: the judgement DAntoni showed when he took over the Knicks job considering the state of that franchise and the owner Dolan was much lacking. He chose it over the HC job in Chicago who were courting him fiercely. I believe it was known at the time they had the #1 overall in that draft (Rose). I think it may have been the money...not to begrudge him on that.

Nobody faults players for taking a larger contract, why the coach as you suggest? As we've seen time and time again, the coach usually takes the fall for players - very rarely is it the other way around. He most likely had to make a decision to go where he felt he would have the most success. Given Rose could not hit the 3 when he came out and was more of a scoring PG than a facilitator (and still is) plus the allure of bringing a winning team back to NY.... there are so many factors that go in to a decision like this it is tough to comment without walking in the other person's shoes.

[Matt52]

ezz_bee you should put a request in to get on payroll with this type of research. Nice work.

It is nice to have validation for the long held belief that he would be best suited as a 3rd option and is paid as such. He is not a franchise player and should not have the expectations on him from management or fans that he is one.

He is definitely unique and with the right people around him I am sure he could contribute to a winning team. I see a mature Ed Davis or Al Horford type at the 4, a Josh Smith type at the 3, an Arron Afflalo type (3 and D) at the 2, and Ray Felton, Gary Payton type at the 1.

The question remains will it be Toronto? I am really doubting it considering the type of players needed to cover his 'defeciencies'. Hopefully he could return assets or two to help the team moving forward.

[Maleko]

Interesting wrap up. If you take money out of it however and measure against all players at his 'position' of PF/C then he drops like a stone. You have a very good point about his offense and that these other players have stars to spread the floor and open looks for them.

As for if you were GM you would have traded him previously I am no so sure since he is a BYC contract until this July you would have only gotten 50 cents on the dollar and perhaps this is why he was not considered to be traded before and now is potentially going to go.

[Matt52]

As for if you were GM you would have traded him previously I am no so sure since he is a BYC contract until this July you would have only gotten 50 cents on the dollar and perhaps this is why he was not considered to be traded before and now is potentially going to go.

Very good point which people should take in to serious consideration.

[jeff_hostetler]

Thought I'd chip in with the same defensive stats I did for Amir.

Same as last time: opponents FG%, opponents PPG, opponents PER (all based on per 48 min).
One thing to note here: Bargs plays the C spot, whereas a number of the players on the list play the PF. I'm not sure if it's fair or accurate to compare between positions. If the player plays any significant time at the C, I'll use those numbers if I can, otherwise I've listed them as PF's.

Bargnani: .581 - 22.6 - 21.1
Odom (PF): .450 - 17.5 - 13.0
Chandler: .530 - 18.9 - 17.7
Collison: .457 - 16.3 - 13.7
Nene: .521 - 19.5 - 18.6
Aldridge: .555 - 17.7 - 16.7
Camby: .508 - 16.5 - 15.5
Okafor: .492 - 16.4 - 13.9
West (PF): .477 - 17.7 - 13.9
Varejao: .461 - 15.1 - 13.2
Blatche: .515 - 19.3 - 17.5
Villanueva (PF): .591 - 23.1 - 20.8
Pryzbilla; .503 - 20.5 - 18.4
Okur: Hasn't played enough (In my opinion) to warrant inclusion.
Curry: See above.
Scola (PF): .516 - 22.9 - 18.9
Kaman: .495 - 16.6 - 16.6
Lee: .486 - 18.1 - 15.9
Biedrins: .538 - 20.5 - 20.0

So...analysis?

Other than Villanueva (who plays at the 4), no one allows more shots to go in against them regularly than does Bargnani. Other than Villanueva and Scola (who also plays at the 4) nor does anyone allow more points to be scored against them than he. His opponents PER is the best (therefore worst) of the group. So, added to ezz_bee's argument that Bargnani is average to below-average on offense, these numbers appear to show Bargs is in the basement with Charlie V when it comes to defense. And in the basement by a pretty significant margin.

Also, for those who think Biedrins would be an upgrade, he really isn't that significant an uprgrade when it comes to defense. Worse on offense than Bargs, so replacing Bargs with Biedrins simply isn't a good idea. Replacing him with someone like David Lee would be surprisingly good, as it would be if he were switched with Chris Kaman (i sure hope somehow he plays for TO next year.)

[Brandon]

Nene's last name is Hilario. It is more useful to look at what the contract does in relation to the cap. How much of the cap as a percentage and in real dollars does Bargnani use up? And does he contribute enough wins to justify those figures?

[Balls of Steel]

Great work man! The foul rate comparison with Aldridge is interesting (I always compare those two anyway). I'm not saying that Lamarcus is just as bad as AB on defence (hence the same foul rate). You've already shown that he's as bad as Charlie V. in that department. Lamarcus Aldridge is a much better rebounder and perhaps is getting better help defences when he blows his coverage. The rotation in Portland is much better that TO (thanks to McMillan's coaching). I'm not going by way of saying that this guy must be outta here. I will say however, that these numbers are being looked at by upper management as well. They need to determine what to do with AB7 moving forward (I'm in the camp of trading him while he is young and scoring is at the peak). I'm also not convinced that he'll thrive in another team. In another team, he won't be as coddled and more importantly, he is 6th man, not a starter. As the first man off the bench in any team, he will never match his numbers here. He is not a starter and would therefore not fare better elsewhere. Just my 2 cents.

[Balls of Steel]

I don't think it's even arguable that Bargnani had a more productive rookie season than Davis. Bargnani played 2 more minutes, but the the only thing he bettered Davis at was scoring. Davis has a PER of 15.9 as opposed to Bargnani's 12.8. And since Bargnani played 2 more minutes per game than Davis in his rookie season, I fail to see how Bargnani wasn't given the same chance as Davis. He's started 256 games out of 300 games since his rookie season. Again, I fail to see how he hasn't been given a chance. And since Triano took over, he's averaged at least 35 mpg.

And if we're judging his future based on this year, I don't see how he has a higher ceiling than Davis. Unless you are talking about offensively. Bargnani has shown little inclination to defend or rebound and is basically a one dimensional player. One dimensional players don't tend to have that high of a ceiling.

I think that Mr. DD is also forgetting that Bargs was already playing in Europe prior to being drafted while Ed suffered a hand injury while in college and a knee injury during summer league. I can see why he's not as enamoured as I am about Davis. Davis won't be an offensive juggernaut as AB7. However, even if his offensive game tails off in games, his defensive intensity / priorities never waivers. Yes, there are nights that his + / - isn't great but let's put into place how difficult it is to defend in this league as a 21 year-old (at his physical position at the for or sometimes the 5). If he adds some bulk and more experience of course, he can be the defensive anchor that this team needs. With that in mind, I don't even bother to entertain comparing the two. Davis has critical intangibles that he brings that Andrea will never have for the rest of his career as a ballplayer. More importantly, Davis' intangibles will be far more important than AB's lone scoring skills.

[jeff_hostetler]

Not sure if anyone finds this useful. I made a formula from the above defensive numbers I posted to generate a single number to quantify a player's defensive rating.

(Opponent's PER + Opponent's PPG) x Opponent's FG% (all numbers based on 48 minutes/pg)

The lower the number, the better:

Varejao: 13.05
Collison: 13.71
Odom (PF): 13.73
Okafor: 14.9
West (PF): 15.07
Kaman: 16.24
Camby: 16.25
Lee: 16.52
Blatche: 18.95
Aldridge: 19.1
Chandler: 19.4
Pryzbilla; 19.57
Nene: 19.85
Scola (PF): 21.57
Biedrins: 21.79
Bargnani: 25.39
Villanueva (PF): 25.95

[Balls of Steel]

I don't see how Davis has a higher ceiling that Bargnani unless your talking about Defence. Davis has shown little inclination for hitting wide open jumpers, making free throws or having any resemblance of a post up game. The majority of his points are the result of wide open dunks or offensive rebounds. Since he is a complete liablilty on offence he is left open and should be getting rebounds and putbacks. Seems to me like Andrea has a much easier hill to climb. See ball grab ball. Inflate rebound numbers shut you up.

If Andrea's scoring tails off starting next year (and the subsequent years to follow), I guarantee you that you won't defend him as much. Davis just brings more intangibles that are not easily measurable (like hustle, deflections, etc.) I bet you Davis has already dove for more balls than Bargs (since he came into the league). I appreciate that you admire scoring from someone as tall and agile as Andrea. However, the "scoring" in his game will fade soon. It's like watching a circus freak. You see it the first time and you're blown away. Once you see it over and over again, it just gets boring and meaningless. Boxing out, defending, hustle and rebounding (if it's in Ed's core - and it looks like it does), will result in a more longer and more productive career (hence a higher ceiling). I've said this before and I'll say it again - Bargs' next contract will be in Europe where it suits his game more. The luster and shine is starting to fade in my opinion.

[DunkinDerozan]

What do you mean they've never had a defined role for Bargnani. Except for the brief period when Jermaine O'Neal was a Raptor, he's been groomed to be, and then later became, the Raptor's starting center.

Everyone knows he's not a true center so thank you once again for proving my point. Now I can include you in my argument as being just as confused about Andrea's role as management has been during his time here in Toronto.

As for the minutes he played, I really don't see how they're irrelevant, except that they go against your argument. Playing a lot of minutes generally means that a player is being given a chance.

In most cases minutes played are a relavent indicator that a young player is developing or a proven player is performing. Andrea's minutes actually declined his second year if you can beleive it. What does that indicate. Mitchell had no INTENTION of playing Bargnani. If not for BC there's no way Mitchell pays Bargs 30+ his 3rd and 4th year. On to year 3-4 how often did you see Bargnani with the ball working on his in game skills. NEVER. He was a Bosh puppet all he did was stand at the three point line to create space for Bosh.

If you want to pretend they don't, then by all means do that, but don't try to convince any reasonable person otherwise. Most young players would kill to be given the chance that Bargnani has been given on the Raptors.

Your pretending his minutes were meaningful. Anyone whose watched his growth this year would admit his previous four year were a waste of development. Most young player aren't aren't imports from Italy who don't speak English. They aren't 7 footers who can play like a shooting guard.

Davis has the second highest shooting percentage and true shooting percentage on the entire team. He moves very well without the ball, knows where to go and be on offense and sees the floor well.

It's not hard to shoot a high percentage when your being left wide open the majority of the time. It't not hard to see the floor well when your not being guarded.

He's also an excellent rebounder. To call him a liability on offense is ridiculous. You don't have to be a threat to hit a 15 foot jumper to be a threat on the offensive end. If Davis' man leaves him, there's a very good chance that Davis will end up scoring on him, so he can't be left alone on offense. Thus, he's not a liability on the offensive end.

HEY OPEN MAN SEE BALL GRAB BALL DUNK BALL. That's basically the extent of Ed's offensive skill. Unfortunatly, when the context changes to HEY GUARDED MAN DO SOMETHING WITH THE BALL. were screwed. Catch my drift.

Besides, Davis has shown a lot of flashes of offensive ability, including a developing post game and the ability to hit the short jumper. Besides, learning how to hit a jumper is probably the easiest basketball skill to learn.

Yea what type of flashes are reffering to open dunks? I think any basketball player if left wide open can finish a dunk. For a big man the jump shot is actually the hardest skill to learn. And id disagree for big men the easiest skill to learn is rebounding. See ball grab ball.

[Maleko]

Not sure if anyone finds this useful. I made a formula from the above defensive numbers I posted to generate a single number to quantify a player's defensive rating.

(Opponent's PER + Opponent's PPG) x Opponent's FG% (all numbers based on 48 minutes/pg)

The lower the number, the better:

Varejao: 13.05
Collison: 13.71
Odom (PF): 13.73
Okafor: 14.9
West (PF): 15.07
Kaman: 16.24
Camby: 16.25
Lee: 16.52
Blatche: 18.95
Aldridge: 19.1
Chandler: 19.4
Pryzbilla; 19.57
Nene: 19.85
Scola (PF): 21.57
Biedrins: 21.79
Bargnani: 25.39
Villanueva (PF): 25.95

Very interesting. I have hoped that Ed Davis would become an Okafor type player. Is there enough data on ED to see what he is yielding in this metric so far?

[Balls of Steel]

And id disagree for big men the easiest skill to learn is rebounding. See ball grab ball.

So how come Andrea doesn't get this concept? Are you saying that he's dumber than he looks?

PS> Perimeter scoring big men are fairly common in Europe. It is hardly unique in the world of basketball.

[DunkinDerozan]

Not sure if anyone finds this useful. I made a formula from the above defensive numbers I posted to generate a single number to quantify a player's defensive rating.

(Opponent's PER + Opponent's PPG) x Opponent's FG% (all numbers based on 48 minutes/pg)

The lower the number, the better:

Varejao: 13.05
Collison: 13.71
Odom (PF): 13.73
Okafor: 14.9
West (PF): 15.07
Kaman: 16.24
Camby: 16.25
Lee: 16.52
Blatche: 18.95
Aldridge: 19.1
Chandler: 19.4
Pryzbilla; 19.57
Nene: 19.85
Scola (PF): 21.57
Biedrins: 21.79
Bargnani: 25.39
Villanueva (PF): 25.95

Please stop throwing around numbers that make absolutly no sense. PER for the life of me makes absolutly 0 sense. Now your going to start adding to it on the defensive end give me a break. Nice try though.

[jeff_hostetler]

Very interesting. I have hoped that Ed Davis would become an Okafor type player. Is there enough data on ED to see what he is yielding in this metric so far?

Davis (PF): 26.98
Amir (PF): 19.25

[golden]

Davis (PF): 26.98
Amir (PF): 19.25

Is your formula showing that Ed Davis is a worse defender than Andrea? You had my curiosity piqued up to that point.

[DunkinDerozan]

So how come Andrea doesn't get this concept? Are you saying that he's dumber than he looks?

PS> Perimeter scoring big men are fairly common in Europe. It is hardly unique in the world of basketball.

Combinations of things.

I admit he should be getting more rebounds that he is right now, but it's still the easiest skill for a big man in my opinion.

For Raptors his rebounding is a trade off. Since we use him at the 3 point line to open space for everyone else, he misses out on all offensive rebound opportunties. So where a traditional centre is down low battling for rebounds, Bargnani is sacrafising his presence for the other players around him. This could easily make up for the additional 3-4 rebounds a game that other bigs average.