Everything Bargnani: Grumble, Grumble, Grumble

[WhatWhat]

And Beaverboi is completely right.

[Tim W.]

So why trade him? If the issues lie with Toronto, shouldn't we focus on them (ie. Coach).

Just because a player has potential, doesn't mean he'll ever reach it. Notice that Apollo said PHYSICAL tools. What he doesn't have are the other tools, such as knowledge and desire. We've had a first hand look at him for 5 years and it's pretty obvious to anyone with an objective mind that what you see is what you get with Bargnani. The hope is that another team will do what so many team's have done before and think that THEY can get the diamond out of the coal. New York tried with Eddy Curry (and Anthony Randolph). Minnesota tried with Michael Beasley (and Anthony Randolph). Orlando tried with Darko Milicic. 9 times out of 10 it doesn't work out, but bad teams usually will take chances on these players because they are desperate. You rarely see contenders take chances on the these types of players because they know it's simply not worth it.

[Balls of Steel]

Just because a player has potential, doesn't mean he'll ever reach it. Notice that Apollo said PHYSICAL tools. What he doesn't have are the other tools, such as knowledge and desire. We've had a first hand look at him for 5 years and it's pretty obvious to anyone with an objective mind that what you see is what you get with Bargnani. The hope is that another team will do what so many team's have done before and think that THEY can get the diamond out of the coal. New York tried with Eddy Curry (and Anthony Randolph). Minnesota tried with Michael Beasley (and Anthony Randolph). Orlando tried with Darko Milicic. 9 times out of 10 it doesn't work out, but bad teams usually will take chances on these players because they are desperate. You rarely see contenders take chances on the these types of players because they know it's simply not worth it.

Which begs the question, who would want him? Golden State? Orlando? What would we get in return? The plot thickens...

[Tim W.]

They uploaded the whole video to Raptors.com and you guys completely took it out of context. What he was saying is that for defense and rebounding all you need is focus and if he can do more complicated things (like being the #1 option on O) than the rest should come easily but it hasn't because he isn't focusing.

Sorry, but that doesn't make me feel better about the quote. It's basically the same thing he said about rebounding last year. The fact is that he knows he's not working hard enough, but doesn't change. Knowing what you need to do and actually doing are two completely separate things. If they weren't, no one would be overweight, would they?

[Tim W.]

I really did not see it on the boards, I thought all year he need to hit the glass better. As for defense, he puts in a decent effort, he just does not know how to play the angles yet, that hurts him big time. We need Alvin Williams to get with him to teach him some of the little things.

I also noticed a much better effort on defense and on the boards as the season went on. He seemed to be more willing to go after rebounds in crowds, which was good to see.

[heinz57]

A new thread should be "If/when Bargs is traded, will you boo him when he comes back?"

if you don't boo every player not in a raptors uniform, i have less respect for you as a fan than i do of hitler as a humanitarian.

just saying....

dont be switzerland. neutrality is for wussies. boo the enemy.

[Tim W.]

Which begs the question, who would want him? Golden State? Orlando? What would we get in return? The plot thickens...

First thing I do is look for teams that don't seem to "focus" on defense, like New York, Orlando and Golden State, as well as bad teams, that tend to be willing to take more chances on players like Bargnani, like Minnesota. You might also want to target those teams that have maybe plateaued or underachieved, like Atlanta. As for what we'd get in return, I'd want either a high draft pick or a young prospect. I agree with Apollo (I think it was) that several mediocre players is the last thing the Raptors need.

[Hugmenot]

Mayo is on record as stating that he's been working on his PG skills. The guy has a better handle than anyone on the Raptors right now and he has all the talent in the world to be a great scorer and facilitator on this club. If the Raptors land a real center in the paint helping out Ed and Amir the need for a SF who rebounds well wouldn't be nearly as high. For the record, DeMar's rebounding and defense greatly improved this season. For a guy who's only been out of high school for three years I think he's doing pretty darn good in both areas. DeRozan's game is more suited to the 3 given his handling ability. All he needs to do this summer is pack on some muscle and he'll do fine at the 3. His defensive woes are overstated. He's only 21. Dwayne Wade for example didn't even enter the league until age 23. Neither did Alex English for that matter.

Besides, the Raptors are not guaranteed to be able to get the PG they want this summer. If they can work a deal that lands Mayo and an interior presence then at least they have a guy to help out in initiating the offense. Mayo can make everybody around him better. He was sensational in his first season but the Grizz have become so deep at the guard spots that he's struggled to get the minutes he got as a rookie and he looks out of rhythm. His game fits in perfectly with what the Raptors want to run.

Barbosa doesn't fit in with the future plans. Don't assume he's finishing his contract here. My money is on him being out of town before the next season starts. Also, he and Mayo aren't the same player. Mayo is a real SG(size) with the ability to play PG. Barbosa is a tweener.

DeRozan rebounding stats for 2009-10: 4.8 ORR, 10.8 DRR, 7.9 TRR
DeRozan rebounding stats for 2010-11: 3.0 ORR, 10.2 DRR, 6.6 TRR

A TRR decrease of 16%.

While I agree statistics do not always tell the true story, the empirical evidence does not support your claim that DeRozan is now a better rebounder (in fact, it suggests the opposite).

DeRozan may be good defensively for a guy who's been out of high school for three years but unfortunately, his opponents are not guys who have been out of high school for three years. DeRozan is currently a bad defender regardless of what his potential ceiling might be.

One thing we do agree upon is DeRozan is an important piece. I am not yet sold he will be anything other than a good offensive weapon but I have not concluded he will not significantly improve in other areas either.

***

I believe we agree it would be very prudent for Barbosa to exercise his player option. I would not trade for another SG (unless it's an end of bench player) until Barbosa is moved.

And yes, I am hoping Barbosa is moved this Summer.

***

Mayo has been working on his PG skills... Do we really need another shoot first PG experiment after Jack and Bayless? Especially one who has yet to play PG in this league?

It's a huge risk in my opinion and I believe Bargnani, if traded, should be traded for young players who are safer bets.

[Apollo]

DeRozan rebounding stats for 2009-10: 4.8 ORR, 10.8 DRR, 7.9 TRR
DeRozan rebounding stats for 2010-11: 3.0 ORR, 10.2 DRR, 6.6 TRR

A TRR decrease of 16%.

While I agree statistics do not always tell the true story, the empirical evidence does not support your claim that DeRozan is now a better rebounder (in fact, it suggests the opposite).

DeRozan may be good defensively for a guy who's been out of high school for three years but unfortunately, his opponents are not guys who have been out of high school for three years. DeRozan is currently a bad defender regardless of what his potential ceiling might be.

One thing we do agree upon is DeRozan is an important piece. I am not yet sold he will be anything other than a good offensive weapon but I have not concluded he will not significantly improve in other areas either.

***

I believe we agree it would be very prudent for Barbosa to exercise his player option. I would not trade for another SG (unless it's an end of bench player) until Barbosa is moved.

And yes, I am hoping Barbosa is moved this Summer.

***

Mayo has been working on his PG skills... Do we really need another shoot first PG experiment after Jack and Bayless? Especially one who has yet to play PG in this league?

It's a huge risk in my opinion and I believe Bargnani, if traded, should be traded for young players who are safer bets.

No doubt he isn't on par with many of his opponents on defense right now but the point I was making was that how can you be so hard on a guy who is learning and is well known for working hard and putting in extra hours? Most those guys he's facing weren't as good as him at age 21.

[Hugmenot]

No doubt he isn't on par with many of his opponents on defense right now but the point I was making was that how can you be so hard on a guy who is learning and is well known for working hard and putting in extra hours? Most those guys he's facing weren't as good as him at age 21.

Maybe the explanation below will help you understand my position.

I come from a baseball statistician background and I did a lot (paid and unpaid) research in the area of Sabermetrics. Baseball is a sport where batting and defensive career projections are much more reliable than basketball. In fact, I have to see an equivalent model which predicts how players will develop as defenders in basketball.

You see something immeasurable in DeRozan which makes you believe he will become a good defender.

I love his work ethics and his athleticism but I have no way to project how he will develop as a defender and rebounder. All I see right now is a bad defender with potential. Let's hope this potential will turn into reality.

[ezz_bee]

How is it possible that multipaul has not posted to this thread?

[Matt52]

How is it possible that multipaul has not posted to this thread?

Multipaul has been banned from the forum. Much discussion goes on behind the scenes and this was not an easy decision. However, it was felt this course of action was in the best interests of the members on the forum. Many warnings were given by numerous moderators and adminstrators until it became obvious the questionable posts far outweighed the valuable contributions Multipaul made. Hopefully threads no longer become personal and one-dimensional in topic.

[ezz_bee]

You rarely see contenders take chances on the these types of players because they know it's simply not worth it.

Like Orlando taking Gilbert Areanas, the Lakers taking Ron Artest, or the Celtics taking Nate Robinson?

[Hugmenot]

One interesting tidbit about Bargnani, at least to me, is that historically he pulls down a little over 4 defensive rebounds for every offensive rebound he pulls down.

Given this number has consistent throughout his career, what would his DRR need to be for him to pull 7, 8, or 9 rebound a game?

I will also assume he is on the court with the same teammates and use is DRR for 2010-11 (13.9) as the starting point.

TR OR DR DRR
--- ---- ---- ----
7.0 1.37 5.63 19.2
7.5 1.47 6.03 20.5
8.0 1.56 6.44 22.0
8.5 1.66 6.84 23.3
9.0 1.76 7.24 24.7

Given Ed Davis looks to me to be a natural rebounder and averaged 22.2 DRR for the season, I believe it's unrealistic to expect Bargnani to average 8.0 boards a game if he continues to have the same offensive to defensive rebounds ratio.

I only spent 10-15 minutes on this post so I am sure many can come with a better set of assumptions. But I think the basic questions will remain.

What should be a realistic target DRR for him?
How much is his ORR is a product of his usage?

[Tim W.]

Like Orlando taking Gilbert Areanas, the Lakers taking Ron Artest, or the Celtics taking Nate Robinson?

True, but they are a little different than what I'm talking about. Those aren't gambling on players with untapped potential who need playing time to develop. Besides, we have seen how Orlando getting Arenas turned out. Artest wasn't really that much of a gamble because between Kobe and Phil Jackson, you pretty much knew they could control Artest. I don't think Robinson was really much of a gamble. It was a fairly meaningless personnel move for a bench player that never really contributed much. Robinson was simply a higher profile player because of his fame. Did anyone really think he would have much of an impact in Boston?

[Tim W.]

One interesting tidbit about Bargnani, at least to me, is that historically he pulls down a little over 4 defensive rebounds for every offensive rebound he pulls down.

Given this number has consistent throughout his career, what would his DRR need to be for him to pull 7, 8, or 9 rebound a game?

I will also assume he is on the court with the same teammates and use is DRR for 2010-11 (13.9) as the starting point.

TR OR DR DRR
--- ---- ---- ----
7.0 1.37 5.63 19.2
7.5 1.47 6.03 20.5
8.0 1.56 6.44 22.0
8.5 1.66 6.84 23.3
9.0 1.76 7.24 24.7

Given Ed Davis looks to me to be a natural rebounder and averaged 22.2 DRR for the season, I believe it's unrealistic to expect Bargnani to average 8.0 boards a game if he continues to have the same offensive to defensive rebounds ratio.

I only spent 10-15 minutes on this post so I am sure many can come with a better set of assumptions. But I think the basic questions will remain.

What should be a realistic target DRR for him?
How much is his ORR is a product of his usage?

Bargnani fans don't seem to like advanced stats. And your post makes far too much sense.

[WhatWhat]

You see, we just need a true C to play with Bargnani...

[Apollo]

One interesting tidbit about Bargnani, at least to me, is that historically he pulls down a little over 4 defensive rebounds for every offensive rebound he pulls down.

Given this number has consistent throughout his career, what would his DRR need to be for him to pull 7, 8, or 9 rebound a game?

I will also assume he is on the court with the same teammates and use is DRR for 2010-11 (13.9) as the starting point.

TR OR DR DRR
--- ---- ---- ----
7.0 1.37 5.63 19.2
7.5 1.47 6.03 20.5
8.0 1.56 6.44 22.0
8.5 1.66 6.84 23.3
9.0 1.76 7.24 24.7

Given Ed Davis looks to me to be a natural rebounder and averaged 22.2 DRR for the season, I believe it's unrealistic to expect Bargnani to average 8.0 boards a game if he continues to have the same offensive to defensive rebounds ratio.

I only spent 10-15 minutes on this post so I am sure many can come with a better set of assumptions. But I think the basic questions will remain.

What should be a realistic target DRR for him?
How much is his ORR is a product of his usage?

Sounds like you put a lot of thought into this one. I like it and this is a take away for me to think about.

[WhatWhat]

Oh, and the answer to covering up Bargnani's rebounding is 7.5. But even that would require a huge jump for him.

[Apollo]

What they should do if they wish to keep him and is to try and set him up with Sabonis or Divac over the summer. Let them go one on one with him working strategy and fundamentals. I picked Sabonis and Divac because they would probably be able to better relate to him. Given that they were both highly skilled on offense and are European legends. He probably grew up watching them play. If anyone can teach him how to play defense, how get rebounds and how to be tough its one of them.