Everything Bargnani: Grumble, Grumble, Grumble

[joey_hesketh]

I'm certainly not going to do a minute count, but I don't believe for a minute that in 2 full games that there were only 29 offensive possessions for Lopez. Doesn't that seem a little odd to you?

Actually, in those two games there were 53 Offensive possessions in which the play ended with Lopez taking a shot, taking Free Throws or Turning it Over.

But again ... I'm not sure what 2 games will prove ... if anything.


If this whooole thing basically comes down to Tim saying "I remember thinking about it" and us saying "I remember him guarding him", then I officially concede. These debates rarely ever finish cleanly.

I stick with my point that Bargnani was not purposely moved onto weaker players.
The weaker player just so happened to be his man. Fin.

[Soft Euro]

I overstated a little, but I am also pretty sure that Bargnani defended Lopez for fewer minutes than both Amir and Davis. I don't have any statistical proof of that, but it was THE thing I focused on for most of the game because I didn't even think it was a good idea for Amir and Davis to be defending Lopez and felt that Bargnani should have defended him more (because he matches up better size-wise).

I'm certainly not going to do a minute count, but I don't believe for a minute that in 2 full games that there were only 29 offensive possessions for Lopez. Doesn't that seem a little odd to you?

Well, I think you overstated a lot, but lets not get into semantics. You are right about the 29, so I did another quick recount and looked a bit better at the games. We probably miss about 15 possessions (rough guess). There were some transition plays, and a lot of those don't get ascribed to a single player (for obvious reasons). Secondly, there were a couple of plays with screens where total mismatched happened, one possession I just viewed had Bayless defending Lopez. Not a hooray moment as he could just as well not be there. But I also made a miscount. I totally missed all the possessions against Bargnani in the first of the two games, and that were only 3 possessions!

In the first game in London, we started the first quarter with Johnson on Bargnani and I think it's this game (and not the second) that lead you to the opinion that Lopez was defended mostly by Johnson and Davis, because he obviously was in that game. As you also alluded to, this did not work very well as Johnson does not match up well with Lopez. Lopez started out with something like 5/5 in the first quarter of the first game. For the second game, Triano made an adjustment and put Bargnani on Lopez in the first quarter. (Of course there were plays were we were in a zone defense, with sometimes Bargnani as the middle man, sometimes on a wing, when matchups were more circumstantial).

I think a lot of this theory (Bargnani defending the weaker big) is based on games like the first game in London, but the second game (when these games are used as evidence for the theory) shows this was not a constant.

[Soft Euro]

Actually, in those two games there were 53 Offensive possessions in which the play ended with Lopez taking a shot, taking Free Throws or Turning it Over.

Is there somewhere you can look up these stats? Tell me please.

[Soft Euro]

Geez, people say I'M tough on Bargnani. People often ask me what numbers I'd be happy with Bargnani putting up, but that question seems to miss the point entirely. It's not about numbers.

Bargnani is never going to pull down 9+ rebounds a game, but neither are the majority of big men in the league. There are plenty of good big men that didn't pull down 9+ rebounds per 36 minutes, last season, including Bosh, Millsap, Amare, Aldridge, Marc Gasol and Dirk. Instead of demanding something unattainable, and really not necessary, I simply demand that he puts in an effort on the boards and works harder to prevent opposing players from grabbing boards.

And while Bargnani doesn't make half his shots, that's because he's a perimeter player. That's not going to change and it shouldn't because that's where his strength lies. Dirk has only shot more than 50% from the field twice in 13 years. Bosh has only done it twice in 8 years. Bargnani has a unique talent and skill, and in order to shoot more than 50% from the field he'd have to shoot more close to the basket, which pretty much negates the offensive advantage he has. I don't see the point in that.

I do agree that Bargnani has to play solid help defense, but again, you're bringing up numbers that are pretty arbitrary. 2 hard fouls are great, but you don't need to give hard fouls to play solid help defense. And Bargnani doesn't have the personality to start punishing people physically. He's not an enforcer or intimidator and asking him to be one is a little ridiculous. His role will never be as a stopper and lots of good big men in the league play good, solid help defense without laying people out. And the 3 bpg would put him among the league leaders. So you'd only be happy if he was among the league leaders in blocks? And blocks don't necessarily equal good defense. JaVale McGee is a poor defender, but a great shotblocker. On the other hand, neither Nene or Al Horford are great shotblockers, but are excellent defenders.

I'm as hard on Bargnani as anyone, but I'm not asking him to become a different player, which is what you seem to want. What I'd want from him is simply to improve on his weaknesses so he's not a liability half the time he's on the floor. I don't think even that's going to happen, since we have seen so little improvement in those areas in five years, but it sounds like you're saying that Bargnani would have to become an elite player in the league in order for you to like him. And I don't think that's fair. I'm simply asking him to have a positive impact on the court.

Now this is a post I can (mostly) agree with! I find myself all the time seemingly defending Bargnani simply because I think he is being attacked a lot for bad reasons and with bad argumentation.

It's absolutely not about numbers when they are used like this. Numbers can be extremely deceptive. For example, Zach Randolph is a very good rebounder. But a lot of these rebounds he gets by boxing out too much; it happens quite often that he should provide help defense, but stays with his man (keeps on boxing out while allowing someone a good opportunity to score) so he can get the rebound if there is a miss. This is detrimental to his team, but helps his rebounding total immensly. Also, with Randolph on the team 'stealing' rebounds, it's not that weird that Gasol only got 7 rebounds a game last season (he still should get more though if you look at his playoff stats).

Looking more at the way Bargnani plays: I would, for instance, rightly or wrongly, like Bargnani to attempt a little less threes when i purely look at him as an individual. He attempted 3.4 threes a game last season. But with the lack of threepoint shooting in the starting lineup and the need to spread the floor, would it be really better for the team if he attempts less threes? Of course, shooting threes lowers his percentage (by about 2 percentage points).

[joey_hesketh]

Is there somewhere you can look up these stats? Tell me please.

I just went to Lopez' Game Logs for those two games.

Counted up all FGA + FTA/2 + TO.

No way to figure out who guarded him on which plays though. Unfortunately.

[Soft Euro]

I just went to Lopez' Game Logs for those two games.

Counted up all FGA + FTA/2 + TO.

No way to figure out who guarded him on which plays though. Unfortunately.

Ah, But FTA/2 doesn't really work for precise calculation as there were 'and 1' plays. I get to a high 40's (and if we are even one count wrong here we are totally screwed!) I can look at individual plays in Synergy, but I have to look at each player to see who they defended, I cannot look at the attacker and count who defended him, unfortunately it's listed only one way. So to get a more precise count, I'd have to look at every play and list them, and that's a lot of work (certainly considering how few people are convinced by research the last time I did something like that...) while I still cannot see who Synergy had as a defender that play.

[Tim W.]

Actually, in those two games there were 53 Offensive possessions in which the play ended with Lopez taking a shot, taking Free Throws or Turning it Over.

But again ... I'm not sure what 2 games will prove ... if anything.


If this whooole thing basically comes down to Tim saying "I remember thinking about it" and us saying "I remember him guarding him", then I officially concede. These debates rarely ever finish cleanly.

I stick with my point that Bargnani was not purposely moved onto weaker players.
The weaker player just so happened to be his man. Fin.

It doesn't PROVE anything, but it's an example of Bargnani not defending the center when he is the better offensive player. It's evidence. And considering that both Amir and Davis were physically overmatched by the much larger Lopez, why wouldn't Bargnani defend Lopez almost exclusively?

And we haven't got to the Orlando game, where Joey Dorsey started (and was defending Howard) because he was the only other player who had the size (width) to defend Howard. Bargnani did defend Howard in that game, but not nearly as much as he should have, considering his position and the lack of real size in the Raptor frontcourt.

[Soft Euro]

And we haven't got to the Orlando game, where Joey Dorsey started (and was defending Howard) because he was the only other player who had the size (width) to defend Howard. Bargnani did defend Howard in that game, but not nearly as much as he should have, considering his position and the lack of real size in the Raptor frontcourt.

You mean that game the day before Bargnani defended Lebron for large parts of the game?

[Tim W.]

Well, I think you overstated a lot, but lets not get into semantics. You are right about the 29, so I did another quick recount and looked a bit better at the games. We probably miss about 15 possessions (rough guess). There were some transition plays, and a lot of those don't get ascribed to a single player (for obvious reasons). Secondly, there were a couple of plays with screens where total mismatched happened, one possession I just viewed had Bayless defending Lopez. Not a hooray moment as he could just as well not be there. But I also made a miscount. I totally missed all the possessions against Bargnani in the first of the two games, and that were only 3 possessions!

In the first game in London, we started the first quarter with Johnson on Bargnani and I think it's this game (and not the second) that lead you to the opinion that Lopez was defended mostly by Johnson and Davis, because he obviously was in that game. As you also alluded to, this did not work very well as Johnson does not match up well with Lopez. Lopez started out with something like 5/5 in the first quarter of the first game. For the second game, Triano made an adjustment and put Bargnani on Lopez in the first quarter. (Of course there were plays were we were in a zone defense, with sometimes Bargnani as the middle man, sometimes on a wing, when matchups were more circumstantial).

I think a lot of this theory (Bargnani defending the weaker big) is based on games like the first game in London, but the second game (when these games are used as evidence for the theory) shows this was not a constant.

I don't think I overstated a lot. And your numbers simply don't make sense. In the first game alone, New Jersey took 81 shots and had 11 turnovers. You take away the 7 shots due to offensive rebounds, and that means that they had 85 offensive possessions over the course of the game. Lopez played just over 3/4 of the game, so it's fair to say that he was probably on the floor for more than 50 New Jersey possessions. You've got him on the floor for 44 possessions over 2 games, the second of which went to triple overtime. I'm sorry, but your numbers don't make sense.

I do agree that Bargnani defended Lopez more in the second game, but he had to because neither Amir and Davis were big enough to stop him in the first one. Triano did attempt to have Bargnani defend the weaker player, and he did a lot of the time, but it was clear even to me that they didn't have anyone other than Bargnani with the size to defend Lopez.

[Soft Euro]

I don't think I overstated a lot. And your numbers simply don't make sense. In the first game alone, New Jersey took 81 shots and had 11 turnovers. You take away the 7 shots due to offensive rebounds, and that means that they had 85 offensive possessions over the course of the game. Lopez played just over 3/4 of the game, so it's fair to say that he was probably on the floor for more than 50 New Jersey possessions. You've got him on the floor for 44 possessions over 2 games, the second of which went to triple overtime. I'm sorry, but your numbers don't make sense.

As I tried to explain, but maybe not good enough, the count is not for total possessions, but the possessions where that player ended the possession. So I do not have Lopez on the floor for only 44 possessions; those are about the number of possessions where the possession ended with him.

[Tim W.]

You mean that game the day before Bargnani defended Lebron for large parts of the game?

Yes, Bargnani did defend LeBron for some of the game (I wouldn't say large part). That was the only time Bargnani seemed to have purposely defended a better player.

Either way, the real point of my argument is that Bargnani (whether by design or not) did not defend the better front court player in most games. And it just so happens that most of those lesser front court players are center. So if ANYONE can explain to me how he'll look better defensively playing PF, where there are far more good scorers, then I'd love to hear it.

[joey_hesketh]

Ah, But FTA/2 doesn't really work for precise calculation as there were 'and 1' plays. I get to a high 40's (and if we are even one count wrong here we are totally screwed!) I can look at individual plays in Synergy, but I have to look at each player to see who they defended, I cannot look at the attacker and count who defended him, unfortunately it's listed only one way. So to get a more precise count, I'd have to look at every play and list them, and that's a lot of work (certainly considering how few people are convinced by research the last time I did something like that...) while I still cannot see who Synergy had as a defender that play.

I've got him with 46 Possessions on FGA and TOs.
Add in 11 Free Throw attempts.

No this isn't exact, but its close enough.

[Tim W.]

As I tried to explain, but maybe not good enough, the count is not for total possessions, but the possessions where that player ended the possession. So I do not have Lopez on the floor for only 44 possessions; those are about the number of possessions where the possession ended with him.

And my point is that even when Lopez didn't end that possession, he was still being defended by someone. If he was being defended well, he might not end up with a shot attempt or even get the ball. My buddy defends me better than anyone, and I end up getting fewer shots or even touches, but you shouldn't discount the possessions I don't get the ball, because I don't get the ball because of his good defense.

[Soft Euro]

So if ANYONE can explain to me how he'll look better defensively playing PF, where there are far more good scorers, then I'd love to hear it.

That has never been part of my argument (on this subject) and nor has it been the argument of some others, like Joey. All we argue is the statement made that 'Bargnani usually defends the weaker player' (mostly me) and the argument (this is mostly Joey) that he purposely defended the weaker player (probably because he was somehow the weaker defender).

[joey_hesketh]

Yes, Bargnani did defend LeBron for some of the game (I wouldn't say large part). That was the only time Bargnani seemed to have purposely defended a better player.

Either way, the real point of my argument is that Bargnani (whether by design or not) did not defend the better front court player in most games. And it just so happens that most of those lesser front court players are center. So if ANYONE can explain to me how he'll look better defensively playing PF, where there are far more good scorers, then I'd love to hear it.

Well I'll state for upteenth time, that I am NOT arguing this point. And NEVER was.
I've stated this in almost every single one of these posts.

My point was simply to get to the bottom of your argument that "Bargnani always guards the weaker player."
I'd heard you use it on a number of occasions and I just didn't feel it was accurate of you to be saying it in the way that you did.

"..is that Bargnani did not defend the better front court player in most games. And it just so happens that most of those lesser front court players are center."

This is what I was looking for you to acknowledge. He was just covering his man.

[Soft Euro]

And my point is that even when Lopez didn't end that possession, he was still being defended by someone. If he was being defended well, he might not end up with a shot attempt or even get the ball. My buddy defends me better than anyone, and I end up getting fewer shots or even touches, but you shouldn't discount the possessions I don't get the ball, because I don't get the ball because of his good defense.

I know that is what you argue, and I already tried adressing it in an earlier post. I'll add this: if I'm correct you say yourself Bargnani matches up better with Bargnani because of his size. And I agree. In the possessions I did watch, Johnson e.g. could not defend him well at all. Based on what you say yourself "if he was defended well, he might not end up with a shot attempt or even get the ball." Considering Bargnani is the better matchup and Johnson could not handle him it does not make much sense that Lopez would get more shot opportunities per minute against Bargnani (in fact the other way round would be more logical).

[Soft Euro]

And my point is that even when Lopez didn't end that possession, he was still being defended by someone. If he was being defended well, he might not end up with a shot attempt or even get the ball. My buddy defends me better than anyone, and I end up getting fewer shots or even touches, but you shouldn't discount the possessions I don't get the ball, because I don't get the ball because of his good defense.

Let's also not forget that I provided 'the count' as a somewhat rough indication to counter the statements made by you that "Bargnani barely defended Lopez" and that it "was almost exclusively Amir and Davis". It was not meant in any way to say that Bargnani defended Lopez more or for the largest part of the game. It was, I emphasize, only to counter 'barely' and 'almost exclusively'. If I wanted to say anything more than countering this extreme statement I would have researched more before saying anything or not have said anything at all. But for this argument, rough indications served the purpose well enough (by a large margin) in my view.

[Tim W.]

I know that is what you argue, and I already tried adressing it in an earlier post. I'll add this: if I'm correct you say yourself Bargnani matches up better with Bargnani because of his size. And I agree. In the possessions I did watch, Johnson e.g. could not defend him well at all. Based on what you say yourself "if he was defended well, he might not end up with a shot attempt or even get the ball." Considering Bargnani is the better matchup and Johnson could not handle him it does not make much sense that Lopez would get more shot opportunities per minute against Bargnani (in fact the other way round would be more logical).

Teams tend to isolate Bargnani on defense, because he's such a weak defensive player, so Lopez could end up getting more shots by design when Bargnani is defending him. I understand your point, but hopefully you understand mine. Whether Bargnani defended Lopez 1/3 of the time or 1/5 of the time, the point is that Bargnani, being the center and the only real one on the roster at the time, should have defended Lopez at least 3/4 of the time. It seemed to me in that game, as well as numerous other ones, that Bargnani was purposely hidden on defense as much they could. And he still was a liability. Not a good sign.

[Tim W.]

Let's also not forget that I provided 'the count' as a somewhat rough indication to counter the statements made by you that "Bargnani barely defended Lopez" and that it "was almost exclusively Amir and Davis". It was not meant in any way to say that Bargnani defended Lopez more or for the largest part of the game. It was, I emphasize, only to counter 'barely' and 'almost exclusively'. If I wanted to say anything more than countering this extreme statement I would have researched more before saying anything or not have said anything at all. But for this argument, rough indications served the purpose well enough (by a large margin) in my view.

Fair enough.

[Soft Euro]

Teams tend to isolate Bargnani on defense, because he's such a weak defensive player, so Lopez could end up getting more shots by design when Bargnani is defending him. I understand your point, but hopefully you understand mine. Whether Bargnani defended Lopez 1/3 of the time or 1/5 of the time, the point is that Bargnani, being the center and the only real one on the roster at the time, should have defended Lopez at least 3/4 of the time. It seemed to me in that game, as well as numerous other ones, that Bargnani was purposely hidden on defense as much they could. And he still was a liability. Not a good sign.

A couple of things:

- As showed by Pruiti (and also supported with statistics by me) Bargnani's individual defense wasn't that bad at all. The problem was his team defense (according to Pruiti) and as far as I know you've agreed with this. So, isolating Bargnani would not be the best way for the opposite team to attack Bargnani's defensive weaknesses. In fact, they'd better isolate someone else because Bargnani would not provide the help needed (and as we all know from watching the Raptors help is needed a lot of times!). On the other hand if they isolate Bargnani, they would attack him at his 'best' defensive skills, while also allowing the better help defenders to play help defense.

- If teams target Bargnani, wouldn't they constantly be looking to create a situation where there best frontcourt player matches up with Bargnani? Considering how bad our team defense and rotations are, they would succeed at this. If that were true, wouldn't mean that Bargnani was defending the best frontcourt player a lot of the time.

- If teams target Bargnani wouldn't he be involved in more than average of the defensive plays? They would target him, so wouldn't he be more often the defensive player on the end of a possession? But if you look at the Synergy stats (and these are stats anyone can calculate using the publicly available stats on synergy) Bargnani was involved on 9,1 defensive possessions per 36 minutes, Davis on 8,7 and Johnson on 9,8.