Everything Bargnani: Grumble, Grumble, Grumble

[Apollo]

I didn't miss the boat Apollo... you decided to change the route mid journey and then get back on course when I jumped off.

I think you need to read what I've been saying again.

I sense a communication breakdown. An excerpt from a post I've been talking about:

And I think thats the next level of the discussion.

Is the risk of keeping/building with Bargnani worth it? Its taking time and opportunities away from others, its using up cap space that could be used towards someone else and its forces the team to atleast look at (or avoid) certain unique/different players in order to get a 'fit' with Bargnani... and that time/touches/money in turn could be used for someone else aswell.

So for instance, Reggie last year was a clearly there to compensate for Bargnani's lack of rebounding. But if the team didn't have to worry about Bargnani's rebounding then Reggie could have been traded for another asset. Or Reggie could have been given less minutes for Amir/Ed/Ajinca or whoever.

Matt commented and then I followed up with this post:

He doesn't even want to contemplate the possibility. Most of what I'm reading is about bringing guys in to shield Bargnani's weaknesses as opposed to bringing in the best guys available to help the whole team. Well, in the scenario we're talking about Bargnani's weakness are far less or gone. This is what GT is missing.

That's above is what I posted after reading what you were saying.

Never have I said that I, or anyone, wouldn't support Bargnani IF he changed. It was you who said people wouldn't if he did.

I never said you said you wouldn't support it. I said you didn't seem to be contemplating it or following the natural path of the conversation in this particular thread, which was assuming Bargnani did get it, what do we do? Not to mention when do we know when to trade him if he doesn't seem to be getting it? Also, when do you know for sure he's not going to get it given the new variables? (ie: maturity, good coach, etc.). We weren't talking about how Colangelo has built teams around him because it was irrelevant to the particular discussion. Colangelo won't need to if he Bargnani gets it and if he doesn't get it he's gone.

[Matt52]

GarbageTime touched on this. By waiting another year on Bargnani, we're taking some minutes away from both Davis and Amir. Shouldn't that loss be taken into the discussion? Wouldn't Davis and Amir's development be expedited if we weren't still holding out hope for Bargnani.

And no matter how much it's discussed, I just can't understand how some people can dismiss 5 years of evidence so easily. 5 years is a very, very, very long time. Historical evidence should be the highest weighted factor when judging a player's worth. Everything else is just guess work...and guessing is no way to run a successful business.

But at the end of the day, we can all agree on one thing. No matter which side of the fence you sit on, we're all very passionate Raptor fans

If Bargnani can get Nene-like rebounding numbers and West-like defense at the PF, then I'd take him any day over Davis or Amir.

But he is not there yet so given the choice TODAY give me Amir or Davis.

[Hugmenot]

Bargnani's 'bar' for rebounding (or defense) should be no less than what one expects for any other 'average' player. Averaging 9-10 rebounds a game (over 36 minutes) is actually quite average for a big in the NBA. The one thing most big men are lacking to achieve that is getting enough minutes to do it.

Just like I don't hold a 3-point specialist to the same overall shooting percentage as a player who takes the majority of his shots from very close (think Aaron Gray for example), I don't expect a big who plays away from the basket on the offensive end to grab offensive rebounds at the same rate as the average big who plays closer to the basket.

Take Dirk Nowitski for example. Dirk has a 5:1 DR:OR ratio and despite him averaging 7.0 rebounds per game last year (7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes), he still grabbed defensive rebounds at a rate 20% higher than the rate of the average power forward. That's pretty significant in my oopnion and yet, he is a very poor rebounder for a big man according to the bar you set (about he would need to increase his rebounding rate by about 25% to meet it).

So, simnple question, how would you rate Dirk Nowitzski as a rebounder?

[SandmanFan]

Andrea Bargniani is (as far as we currently know) an unbalanced player - heavy offence, poor defence. We better get rid of him!

Here's another unbalanced player: Reggie Evans - heavy defence, miserable offence. We better.... sign him up!!!

Bargs continues to get another chance because he really brings something unique to the court - his size and scoring ability make him very difficult to defend. Other players have not had so many chances because they had neither great O nor great D. They were overall mediocre players not showing signs of improvement.

[GarbageTime]

And no matter how much it's discussed, I just can't understand how some people can dismiss 5 years of evidence so easily. 5 years is a very, very, very long time. Historical evidence should be the highest weighted factor when judging a player's worth. Everything else is just guess work...and guessing is no way to run a successful business.

and this is what I don't get and simply will never get. Why people want to totally dismiss what is known for what is unknown.

I'm not begrudging people hoping for the best. By all means people can believe what they want to believe, hope for what they want to hope for, wish for whatever they like.

But the question shouldn't be what 'can' happen. Anything 'can' happen. Amir Johnson may average 40 points a game. Jerryd Bayless can become the best PG to ever play the game. Kleiza could dribble the ball without turning it over. The question needs to be what do we reasonably expect to happen or what will be the most likely result? There is more reason to believe that Bargnani will be who he has always been rather than suddenly do all the things well he never has in the past. That hardly means anyone will want him traded/moved/benched or whatever if he does do change those things. It simply means that the 'haters' aren't expecting it to happen and aren't expecting it to be a long term change.

As I said before there is an opportunity cost to 'hoping' he'll change. Its one thing to hope it will happen, its a whole other thing to use up resources and opportunities while hoping it does.

To go along with Nilanka statement on guess work being bad business, there is this investing idea called the hope trade. Where people start to invest in the markets in hope that things will get better. Its not based in fundamentals, its not based on technicals, its not based on market swings, its not based on new market information, its not based on what has worked in the past or market history (in fact its ignoring it but thats neither here nor there).... its based on nothing other than the 'feeling' things have got to get better (or they can't get any worse). Its a dangerous game and a fantastic way to lose money.

[Apollo]

Yes, I've read and heard him talk about how he became such a great rebounder. But he's also naturally a very good rebounder because he's a hustler. That's his personality. Take a look at his college stats. He averaged 15.7 rpg over the course of his college career.

When I was a kid I didn't care about using my hands to fix things. I had no interest in home improvement. When I went to college that feeling did not change but then as time went on I changed, I suddenly cared. It wasn't due to an experience. I had matured over that time and suddenly things that I felt were boring or tedious or unemployable suddenly felt vital that I know to be a real man, to look after my family, to best represent who I was as a person. I felt bad that I couldn't fix a toilet or paint a wall. So what did I do? I studied up, I repainted my whole house, I put down new flooring on two different floors of my house. I power washed, sanded and refinished my back deck. I replaced a door, I installed a new threshold, I did all these things that I once felt were a pain in the ass and I enjoyed it and I felt obligated in a way to do it because it was my responsibility to do so. And I don't mean to sound cocky but I feel I've become pretty good at doing handyman stuff around the house now. Maturity, it's a game changer Tim. Bargnani hasn't played defense or rebounded in the ball in the past primarily due to a lack of effort. You hear him talk earlier in his career and it's all about the offense. Even when he started to talk about rebounding and defense a couple years ago you could tell he was just saying what people wanted to hear. He had no enthusiasm when he talked about it. Nothing lit up in his eyes when the topic came up. I have not heard an interview with him this camp but I have heard from Casey and he's saying Bargnani is doing a whole lot of things that to me imply a new found maturity and finally a damn sense of accountability in doing the things he needs to do to be the man of this house so to speak. Will he succeed? Damned if I know but I know I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you when we both know the outcome of it. That being zero progress. Fine, you don't believe he can do it. I've heard it a million times now and I've agreed at times but there's nothing left to be said there. Let's watch and see what he does.

and this is what I don't get and simply will never get. Why people want to totally dismiss what is known for what is unknown.

I think the first thing to understand is we're not saying it's going to happen and we're not overlooking anything or I'm not anyway. We're saying let the season play out. This is a transitional time. If you're not down with that then fine but you're probably in for a bad experience with your point of view because it flies contrary to everything we know about how Colangelo has handled Bargnani, to deal him now before Casey can do any work on him.

[Nilanka]

Bargs continues to get another chance because he really brings something unique to the court - his size and scoring ability make him very difficult to defend.

I actually think Bargnani is pretty easy to defend if opposing coaches were more comfortable with sticking a shorter, quicker small foward-type player on him (e.g. Josh Smith, Jeff Green, Wilson Chandler, Mbah A Moute, LeBron, Deng, Rashard Lewis etc.). They would have the lateral quicks to stay in front of Bargnani, and Bargnani wouldn't bother using his size to his advantage by posting up his smaller defenders.

There were many times last year where this type of scenario played out. And instead of a guaranteed basket (or at the very least, a trip to the FT line), we watched Bargnani pump fake twice, take one dribble step, and force a contested 20 footer which clanged off side rim.

[sleepz]

Agree. i find it fascinating that somebody would reward a player who finally works hard and pays attention, BY TRADING HIM!!!!! Just so they wont miss out! I think thats sending a bad message to the other players. Much like Lamar Odom being traded, at first i thought he was just being a sensitive little girl, but when you look at it, the guy just won the 6th man of the year, helped you win 2 championships, and didnt even give him the courtesy to inform him he's being traded. OUCH.

But hey, on the other hand, its a business. Thats what the professional basketballs has come to, a business.

I think everything depends on the circumstance and the player. For a player to finally "get it" insinuates he'll still maintain it. After 5 years of doing something one way a year of drastic improvment might indeed indicate a turning of the corner but it could possibly be an anamoly as well. Andrea could indeed improve this year in his traditional areas of weakness which would indicate his maturing as a player but for myself, even in the areas we don't expect improvement in I still think he's only a decent player.

We laud his scoring ability because we know he can shoot but the facts remain 21pts on 17 shots. Thats not highly efficient by any measurements so if there is an opportunity to get a better player or better assets for him I'd be all for it. Imo teaching a player to be physical at this stage of his career might be more of a sign that he doesn't naturally have that desire which could mean him quickly reverting back to his old habits.

I don't wish anything bad upon Andrea and if he improves, to me I'm all for it and it's about time, but the organization has spent many resources on trying to make this a reality and failed thus far. I would definitely change my opinion on him being with the team long term however if I feel that these changes were permanent and he was a key piece to winning moving forward but that might take a few years of me seeing these changes consistently.

[Hugmenot]

Since I followed the Pistons very closely at that time, I can tell you I don't really need to research Dennis Rodman. Dennis Rodman did enter the NBA late, at 25, but he was always a good rebounder and defender who worked hard on the court. Always. Even in college. It's true that he did mature (somewhat) but it didn't change who he was.

It's easy enough to verify by perusing http://www.basketball-reference.com/...rodmade01.html

Dennis Rodman averaged between 5.3 and 7.3 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes his first 4 years in the league. His average rose to 8.9 in his 5th year and then varied between 9.8 and 12.6 for the last 9 years of his career. We're talking a roughly 50% increase over his 4 years, a very, very significant increase.

Another interesting tidbit about Dennis Rodman is how many offensive rebounds did he grab per 36 minutes. Between 5.1 and 5.3 the first four years, 4.3 in his 5th year, and between 3.4 and 6.3 the last nine years of his career. Interesting (to me).

[Matt52]

I'm going to give Bargnani another excuse - one that I do feel has merit.

I'm not sure if anyone remembers last year but JT kept talking about roles. "Bargnani is a scorer." "Reggie is a rebounder." There were other players too if I recall correctly.

By labelling a player how are they suppose to do the 'other' things? There seems to be a major shift in approach to not only Andrea but the team.

I'm looking forward to this year. The only way I"ll be disappointed is if the defensive intensity has not noticeable improve and, more importantly, if players are not held responsible and accountable - and this goes for more than Andrea.

[GarbageTime]

I sense a communication breakdown. An excerpt from a post I've been talking about:



Matt commented and then I followed up with this post:



That's above is what I posted after reading what you were saying.


I never said you said you wouldn't support it. I said you didn't seem to be contemplating it or following the natural path of the conversation in this particular thread, which was assuming Bargnani did get it, what do we do? Not to mention when do we know when to trade him if he doesn't seem to be getting it? Also, when do you know for sure he's not going to get it given the new variables? (ie: maturity, good coach, etc.). We weren't talking about how Colangelo has built teams around him because it was irrelevant to the particular discussion. Colangelo won't need to if he Bargnani gets it and if he doesn't get it he's gone.

sigh... follow the discussion Apollo

the first thing is that initial comment you quoted was an addition to what to whatwhat said.

Secondly what I said was:

And I think thats the next level of the discussion

and

Is the risk of keeping/building with Bargnani worth it?

The team needing to cover Bargnani's weaknesses was only a PART of the entire idea (I simply used my example to fully explain the last part ie. the opportunity cost of doing it). It also includes waiting for him to improve. Taking time away from other players if he doesn't or while we wait. The total opportunity cost of it all.



Matts comment (about 'punishing Bargnani' by trading him) had NOTHING to do with what I said. It had to do with 'why do people want to trade him if he improves'? Which no one said. Which YOU in fact said you thought some people would still want him traded, while no one else actually said it. You then proceed to say that

He [GT] doesn't even want to contemplate the possibility.

which was based on absolutely nothing I had said up to that point in time.

If you go back to the start and read my initial comments, I clearly stated I expected people to support him IF he made those changes. And that I would be excited if he did.

[Apollo]

I'm going to give Bargnani another excuse - one that I do feel has merit.

I'm not sure if anyone remembers last year but JT kept talking about roles. "Bargnani is a scorer." "Reggie is a rebounder." There were other players too if I recall correctly.

By labelling a player how are they suppose to do the 'other' things? There seems to be a major shift in approach to not only Andrea but the team.

I'm looking forward to this year. The only way I"ll be disappointed is if the defensive intensity has not noticeable improve and, more importantly, if players are not held responsible and accountable - and this goes for more than Andrea.

I agree. Colangelo wouldn't let Mitchell give Bargnani what he needed and then he promoted a guy not capable to give Bargnani what he needed.

[Nilanka]

See this is why i like discussing with Nilanka, you can always argue, but there's always this kicker in the end that seems to say "we kick each other in the face, but we're still all friends!" that i like. let bygones be bygones.

Likewise

You'll only see me get nasty on the main site when folks start hurling obscenities because I criticized their favourite player. But show me respect, and I'll return the favour.

BTW (unrelated to this thread), did you hear Casey's mention of Gary Payton when talking about DeRozan? I bet you appreciated that.

[GarbageTime]

Just like I don't hold a 3-point specialist to the same overall shooting percentage as a player who takes the majority of his shots from very close (think Aaron Gray for example), I don't expect a big who plays away from the basket on the offensive end to grab offensive rebounds at the same rate as the average big who plays closer to the basket.

Take Dirk Nowitski for example. Dirk has a 5:1 DR:OR ratio and despite him averaging 7.0 rebounds per game last year (7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes), he still grabbed defensive rebounds at a rate 20% higher than the rate of the average power forward. That's pretty significant in my oopnion and yet, he is a very poor rebounder for a big man according to the bar you set (about he would need to increase his rebounding rate by about 25% to meet it).

So, simnple question, how would you rate Dirk Nowitzski as a rebounder?

Then explain Kevin Love? Troy Murphy (when he played ofcourse)?

Its not unreasonable to expect a big man to rebound like a big man.

The idea of 'well he's a bad rebounder so we should set the bar low for him' is not what you are going to get from me.

[Apollo]

Secondly what I said was:

And I think thats the next level of the discussion

and

Is the risk of keeping/building with Bargnani worth it?

The team needing to cover Bargnani's weaknesses was only a PART of the entire idea (I simply used my example to fully explain the last part ie. the opportunity cost of doing it). It also includes waiting for him to improve. Taking time away from other players if he doesn't or while we wait. The total opportunity cost of it all.

That's not the next level. That's the basement. We've been there for three years now at least. Nothing new there. Either he gets it or he's gone. He's under contract, he's not in line for a greater commitment. Either he gets it now or he's dealt. I think it's that simple. To keep him another year risks little. They have an Amnesty Clause in their back pocket and that's for the worst case scenario.

He [GT] doesn't even want to contemplate the possibility.

which was based on absolutely nothing I had said up to that point in time.

Sorry, I assumed it since you dug up ideas from years gone by that aren't really relevant now that he has his guaranteed contract already, Colangelo has spoken out about what he needs to change or else and the Raptors have an Amnesty Clause they can use anytime down the road.

If you go back to the start and read my initial comments, I clearly stated I expected people to support him IF he made those changes. And that I would be excited if he did.

I'm glad for that and again, I didn't say you felt otherwise. I questioned why we wanted to change the subject to things I felt were not really relevant to what we were discussing. We have like a 100 pages of that topic in the Everything Bargnani thread.

The idea of 'well he's a bad rebounder so we should set the bar low for him' is not what you are going to get from me.

I think they're past that. Its do or die right now over this next season and change. Expectations are higher, Colangelo even said it. He has the right coach now. He brought the right approach to camp. We don't need to play with the bar. Colangelo and Casey sound like they have set the bar, it's glued... Right next to the giant motivational rock.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

Likewise

You'll only see me get nasty on the main site when folks start throwing obscenities because I criticized their favourite player. But show me respect, and I'll return the favour.

BTW (unrelated to this thread), did you hear Casey's mention of Gary Payton when talking about DeRozan? I bet you appreciated that.

Oh crap nooooooo!!!! i mean im mad coz i didnt see it, but my idol mentioned in the same breath as my home team??? cant get any better than that! well, raps and champions might be better, hehehe.

When was this??

[GarbageTime]

I think the first thing to understand is we're not saying it's going to happen and we're not overlooking anything or I'm not anyway. We're saying let the season play out. This is a transitional time. If you're not down with that then fine but you're probably in for a bad experience with your point of view because it flies contrary to everything we know about how Colangelo has handled Bargnani, to deal him now before Casey can do any work on him.

I've said many times, I fully expect Bargnani to be here until, at the very least, the last year of his contract. That doesn't mean I'm going to think its a good, or the best, idea available to this team

[Nilanka]

Oh crap nooooooo!!!! i mean im mad coz i didnt see it, but my idol mentioned in the same breath as my home team??? cant get any better than that! well, raps and champions might be better, hehehe.

When was this??

http://www.thestar.com/sports/basket...zan-s-presence

On Wednesday, after nearly three hours of hard slogging, the coach lavished DeRozan with a flattering point of comparison.

“It’s a lot of pressure, but it’s a good pressure. As a 21-year-old, it’s the best pressure you can have,” said Casey. “I remember Gary Payton as a young kid coming in, wet behind the ears, just growing up and maturing. Knowing how to be physical, knowing when to turn it up, knowing when to attack the basket, knowing how to draw fouls. All those things take time.”

[Tim W.]

Im not sure what you mean by "never seems to work". Are you trying to change people's minds? Maybe thats why you get so worked up all the time, its not about changing people's minds here. You say your piece and respect the other's opinion. Nobody's right or wrong here, its a forum. Its not a "make the world a better place" type thing.

Thats fine. I think its a part of the game. I get an insight of what theyre doing, thinking of improving, plans for the season, etc. But you do listen to Colangelo when he says he's been saying stuff about Bargnani and from what he said before, you assumed that he was on the verge of trading Bargnani or at least trading him this season, right? Interesting.....

It "never seems to work" because people don't seem to get what I'm saying, on that subject. And I say that because their responses don't seem to make sense to me. I expect to change people's mind as much as you do.

I think players and coaches speak to the media so much, and are so trained to do it that it ends up meaning absolutely nothing. Especially when they can say things for different reasons, including knowing that others are going to read their words.

As for Colangelo, I wasn't just going on what he was saying. That's the thing. If it was just what Colangelo said. It was a a series of things. What you have to realize is that people don't always say what they mean, when talking to the media. So you can either try and decipher it, which is difficult and usually pointless, or ignore it, which is what I usually do. But when there were a series of things that happened and were said by different people, it seemed to point to something.

[GarbageTime]

That's not the next level. That's the basement. We've been there for three years now at least. Nothing new there. Either he gets it or he's gone. He's under contract, he's not in line for a greater commitment. Either he gets it now or he's dealt. I think it's that simple. To keep him another year risks little. They have an Amnesty Clause in their back pocket and that's for the worst case scenario.



Sorry, I assumed it since you dug up ideas from years gone by that aren't really relevant now that he has his guaranteed contract already, Colangelo has spoken out about what he needs to change or else and the Raptors have an Amnesty Clause they can use anytime down the road.

I'm glad for that and again, I didn't say you felt otherwise. I questioned why we wanted to change the subject to things I felt were not really relevant to what we were discussing. We have like a 100 pages of that topic in the Everything Bargnani thread.

oh please apollo. If you didn't like my comments or are 'bored' with them then don't read them or respond to them. But don't tell me, based on a completely seperate discussion to the one you jumped in on and misinterpretted, what I can and can't contemplate or that it was I who was changing the discussion. Playing Bargnani just to play Bargnani still has an opportunity cost.

I'll also mention that the idea of 'Bargnani changing' is nothing new either. Fifth year in a row this discussion has arisen. I fully expect it next year prior to the season starting to.