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  • Interesting wrap up. If you take money out of it however and measure against all players at his 'position' of PF/C then he drops like a stone. You have a very good point about his offense and that these other players have stars to spread the floor and open looks for them.

    As for if you were GM you would have traded him previously I am no so sure since he is a BYC contract until this July you would have only gotten 50 cents on the dollar and perhaps this is why he was not considered to be traded before and now is potentially going to go.

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    • Maleko wrote: View Post
      As for if you were GM you would have traded him previously I am no so sure since he is a BYC contract until this July you would have only gotten 50 cents on the dollar and perhaps this is why he was not considered to be traded before and now is potentially going to go.
      Very good point which people should take in to serious consideration.

      Comment


      • Thought I'd chip in with the same defensive stats I did for Amir.

        Same as last time: opponents FG%, opponents PPG, opponents PER (all based on per 48 min).
        One thing to note here: Bargs plays the C spot, whereas a number of the players on the list play the PF. I'm not sure if it's fair or accurate to compare between positions. If the player plays any significant time at the C, I'll use those numbers if I can, otherwise I've listed them as PF's.

        Bargnani: .581 - 22.6 - 21.1
        Odom (PF): .450 - 17.5 - 13.0
        Chandler: .530 - 18.9 - 17.7
        Collison: .457 - 16.3 - 13.7
        Nene: .521 - 19.5 - 18.6
        Aldridge: .555 - 17.7 - 16.7
        Camby: .508 - 16.5 - 15.5
        Okafor: .492 - 16.4 - 13.9
        West (PF): .477 - 17.7 - 13.9
        Varejao: .461 - 15.1 - 13.2
        Blatche: .515 - 19.3 - 17.5
        Villanueva (PF): .591 - 23.1 - 20.8
        Pryzbilla; .503 - 20.5 - 18.4
        Okur: Hasn't played enough (In my opinion) to warrant inclusion.
        Curry: See above.
        Scola (PF): .516 - 22.9 - 18.9
        Kaman: .495 - 16.6 - 16.6
        Lee: .486 - 18.1 - 15.9
        Biedrins: .538 - 20.5 - 20.0

        So...analysis?

        Other than Villanueva (who plays at the 4), no one allows more shots to go in against them regularly than does Bargnani. Other than Villanueva and Scola (who also plays at the 4) nor does anyone allow more points to be scored against them than he. His opponents PER is the best (therefore worst) of the group. So, added to ezz_bee's argument that Bargnani is average to below-average on offense, these numbers appear to show Bargs is in the basement with Charlie V when it comes to defense. And in the basement by a pretty significant margin.

        Also, for those who think Biedrins would be an upgrade, he really isn't that significant an uprgrade when it comes to defense. Worse on offense than Bargs, so replacing Bargs with Biedrins simply isn't a good idea. Replacing him with someone like David Lee would be surprisingly good, as it would be if he were switched with Chris Kaman (i sure hope somehow he plays for TO next year.)
        Last edited by jeff_hostetler; Mon Mar 28, 2011, 09:16 AM.

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        • Nene's last name is Hilario. It is more useful to look at what the contract does in relation to the cap. How much of the cap as a percentage and in real dollars does Bargnani use up? And does he contribute enough wins to justify those figures?

          Comment


          • Great work man! The foul rate comparison with Aldridge is interesting (I always compare those two anyway). I'm not saying that Lamarcus is just as bad as AB on defence (hence the same foul rate). You've already shown that he's as bad as Charlie V. in that department. Lamarcus Aldridge is a much better rebounder and perhaps is getting better help defences when he blows his coverage. The rotation in Portland is much better that TO (thanks to McMillan's coaching). I'm not going by way of saying that this guy must be outta here. I will say however, that these numbers are being looked at by upper management as well. They need to determine what to do with AB7 moving forward (I'm in the camp of trading him while he is young and scoring is at the peak). I'm also not convinced that he'll thrive in another team. In another team, he won't be as coddled and more importantly, he is 6th man, not a starter. As the first man off the bench in any team, he will never match his numbers here. He is not a starter and would therefore not fare better elsewhere. Just my 2 cents.
            “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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            • Tim W. wrote: View Post
              I don't think it's even arguable that Bargnani had a more productive rookie season than Davis. Bargnani played 2 more minutes, but the the only thing he bettered Davis at was scoring. Davis has a PER of 15.9 as opposed to Bargnani's 12.8. And since Bargnani played 2 more minutes per game than Davis in his rookie season, I fail to see how Bargnani wasn't given the same chance as Davis. He's started 256 games out of 300 games since his rookie season. Again, I fail to see how he hasn't been given a chance. And since Triano took over, he's averaged at least 35 mpg.

              And if we're judging his future based on this year, I don't see how he has a higher ceiling than Davis. Unless you are talking about offensively. Bargnani has shown little inclination to defend or rebound and is basically a one dimensional player. One dimensional players don't tend to have that high of a ceiling.
              I think that Mr. DD is also forgetting that Bargs was already playing in Europe prior to being drafted while Ed suffered a hand injury while in college and a knee injury during summer league. I can see why he's not as enamoured as I am about Davis. Davis won't be an offensive juggernaut as AB7. However, even if his offensive game tails off in games, his defensive intensity / priorities never waivers. Yes, there are nights that his + / - isn't great but let's put into place how difficult it is to defend in this league as a 21 year-old (at his physical position at the for or sometimes the 5). If he adds some bulk and more experience of course, he can be the defensive anchor that this team needs. With that in mind, I don't even bother to entertain comparing the two. Davis has critical intangibles that he brings that Andrea will never have for the rest of his career as a ballplayer. More importantly, Davis' intangibles will be far more important than AB's lone scoring skills.
              “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

              Comment


              • Not sure if anyone finds this useful. I made a formula from the above defensive numbers I posted to generate a single number to quantify a player's defensive rating.

                (Opponent's PER + Opponent's PPG) x Opponent's FG% (all numbers based on 48 minutes/pg)

                The lower the number, the better:

                Varejao: 13.05
                Collison: 13.71
                Odom (PF): 13.73
                Okafor: 14.9
                West (PF): 15.07
                Kaman: 16.24
                Camby: 16.25
                Lee: 16.52
                Blatche: 18.95
                Aldridge: 19.1
                Chandler: 19.4
                Pryzbilla; 19.57
                Nene: 19.85
                Scola (PF): 21.57
                Biedrins: 21.79
                Bargnani: 25.39
                Villanueva (PF): 25.95

                Comment


                • DunkinDerozan wrote: View Post
                  I don't see how Davis has a higher ceiling that Bargnani unless your talking about Defence. Davis has shown little inclination for hitting wide open jumpers, making free throws or having any resemblance of a post up game. The majority of his points are the result of wide open dunks or offensive rebounds. Since he is a complete liablilty on offence he is left open and should be getting rebounds and putbacks. Seems to me like Andrea has a much easier hill to climb. See ball grab ball. Inflate rebound numbers shut you up.
                  If Andrea's scoring tails off starting next year (and the subsequent years to follow), I guarantee you that you won't defend him as much. Davis just brings more intangibles that are not easily measurable (like hustle, deflections, etc.) I bet you Davis has already dove for more balls than Bargs (since he came into the league). I appreciate that you admire scoring from someone as tall and agile as Andrea. However, the "scoring" in his game will fade soon. It's like watching a circus freak. You see it the first time and you're blown away. Once you see it over and over again, it just gets boring and meaningless. Boxing out, defending, hustle and rebounding (if it's in Ed's core - and it looks like it does), will result in a more longer and more productive career (hence a higher ceiling). I've said this before and I'll say it again - Bargs' next contract will be in Europe where it suits his game more. The luster and shine is starting to fade in my opinion.
                  “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

                  Comment


                  • What do you mean they've never had a defined role for Bargnani. Except for the brief period when Jermaine O'Neal was a Raptor, he's been groomed to be, and then later became, the Raptor's starting center.
                    Everyone knows he's not a true center so thank you once again for proving my point. Now I can include you in my argument as being just as confused about Andrea's role as management has been during his time here in Toronto.


                    As for the minutes he played, I really don't see how they're irrelevant, except that they go against your argument. Playing a lot of minutes generally means that a player is being given a chance.
                    In most cases minutes played are a relavent indicator that a young player is developing or a proven player is performing. Andrea's minutes actually declined his second year if you can beleive it. What does that indicate. Mitchell had no INTENTION of playing Bargnani. If not for BC there's no way Mitchell pays Bargs 30+ his 3rd and 4th year. On to year 3-4 how often did you see Bargnani with the ball working on his in game skills. NEVER. He was a Bosh puppet all he did was stand at the three point line to create space for Bosh.

                    If you want to pretend they don't, then by all means do that, but don't try to convince any reasonable person otherwise. Most young players would kill to be given the chance that Bargnani has been given on the Raptors.
                    Your pretending his minutes were meaningful. Anyone whose watched his growth this year would admit his previous four year were a waste of development. Most young player aren't aren't imports from Italy who don't speak English. They aren't 7 footers who can play like a shooting guard.



                    Davis has the second highest shooting percentage and true shooting percentage on the entire team. He moves very well without the ball, knows where to go and be on offense and sees the floor well.
                    It's not hard to shoot a high percentage when your being left wide open the majority of the time. It't not hard to see the floor well when your not being guarded.

                    He's also an excellent rebounder. To call him a liability on offense is ridiculous. You don't have to be a threat to hit a 15 foot jumper to be a threat on the offensive end. If Davis' man leaves him, there's a very good chance that Davis will end up scoring on him, so he can't be left alone on offense. Thus, he's not a liability on the offensive end.
                    HEY OPEN MAN SEE BALL GRAB BALL DUNK BALL. That's basically the extent of Ed's offensive skill. Unfortunatly, when the context changes to HEY GUARDED MAN DO SOMETHING WITH THE BALL. were screwed. Catch my drift.


                    Besides, Davis has shown a lot of flashes of offensive ability, including a developing post game and the ability to hit the short jumper. Besides, learning how to hit a jumper is probably the easiest basketball skill to learn.
                    Yea what type of flashes are reffering to open dunks? I think any basketball player if left wide open can finish a dunk. For a big man the jump shot is actually the hardest skill to learn. And id disagree for big men the easiest skill to learn is rebounding. See ball grab ball.
                    Last edited by DunkinDerozan; Mon Mar 28, 2011, 09:41 AM.

                    Comment


                    • jeff_hostetler wrote: View Post
                      Not sure if anyone finds this useful. I made a formula from the above defensive numbers I posted to generate a single number to quantify a player's defensive rating.

                      (Opponent's PER + Opponent's PPG) x Opponent's FG% (all numbers based on 48 minutes/pg)

                      The lower the number, the better:

                      Varejao: 13.05
                      Collison: 13.71
                      Odom (PF): 13.73
                      Okafor: 14.9
                      West (PF): 15.07
                      Kaman: 16.24
                      Camby: 16.25
                      Lee: 16.52
                      Blatche: 18.95
                      Aldridge: 19.1
                      Chandler: 19.4
                      Pryzbilla; 19.57
                      Nene: 19.85
                      Scola (PF): 21.57
                      Biedrins: 21.79
                      Bargnani: 25.39
                      Villanueva (PF): 25.95
                      Very interesting. I have hoped that Ed Davis would become an Okafor type player. Is there enough data on ED to see what he is yielding in this metric so far?

                      Comment


                      • DunkinDerozan wrote: View Post
                        And id disagree for big men the easiest skill to learn is rebounding. See ball grab ball.
                        So how come Andrea doesn't get this concept? Are you saying that he's dumber than he looks?

                        PS> Perimeter scoring big men are fairly common in Europe. It is hardly unique in the world of basketball.
                        Last edited by Balls of Steel; Mon Mar 28, 2011, 09:37 AM.
                        “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

                        Comment


                        • jeff_hostetler wrote: View Post
                          Not sure if anyone finds this useful. I made a formula from the above defensive numbers I posted to generate a single number to quantify a player's defensive rating.

                          (Opponent's PER + Opponent's PPG) x Opponent's FG% (all numbers based on 48 minutes/pg)

                          The lower the number, the better:

                          Varejao: 13.05
                          Collison: 13.71
                          Odom (PF): 13.73
                          Okafor: 14.9
                          West (PF): 15.07
                          Kaman: 16.24
                          Camby: 16.25
                          Lee: 16.52
                          Blatche: 18.95
                          Aldridge: 19.1
                          Chandler: 19.4
                          Pryzbilla; 19.57
                          Nene: 19.85
                          Scola (PF): 21.57
                          Biedrins: 21.79
                          Bargnani: 25.39
                          Villanueva (PF): 25.95
                          Please stop throwing around numbers that make absolutly no sense. PER for the life of me makes absolutly 0 sense. Now your going to start adding to it on the defensive end give me a break. Nice try though.

                          Comment


                          • Very interesting. I have hoped that Ed Davis would become an Okafor type player. Is there enough data on ED to see what he is yielding in this metric so far?
                            Davis (PF): 26.98
                            Amir (PF): 19.25
                            Last edited by jeff_hostetler; Mon Mar 28, 2011, 09:48 AM.

                            Comment


                            • jeff_hostetler wrote: View Post
                              Davis (PF): 26.98
                              Amir (PF): 19.25
                              Is your formula showing that Ed Davis is a worse defender than Andrea? You had my curiosity piqued up to that point.

                              Comment


                              • Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
                                So how come Andrea doesn't get this concept? Are you saying that he's dumber than he looks?

                                PS> Perimeter scoring big men are fairly common in Europe. It is hardly unique in the world of basketball.
                                Combinations of things.

                                I admit he should be getting more rebounds that he is right now, but it's still the easiest skill for a big man in my opinion.

                                For Raptors his rebounding is a trade off. Since we use him at the 3 point line to open space for everyone else, he misses out on all offensive rebound opportunties. So where a traditional centre is down low battling for rebounds, Bargnani is sacrafising his presence for the other players around him. This could easily make up for the additional 3-4 rebounds a game that other bigs average.

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