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  • hateslosing wrote: View Post
    Well, first off I like Calderon and the only reason I'd like him moved is if we found a star somehow and couldn't afford to keep him. Like you said, he is one of the few players on the team who has a net positive impact, he is one of the best decision makers in the NBA, and he is a skill player so he still has a lot of good years left. I've flip flopped on Calderon (much like I do on Bargs) before but I'm now firmly in his corner

    The thing is Tim W., we have no superstar and there is a minuscule chance Bargs can be one. I admit, I used to have a lot more faith in Bargs than I do now in terms of his ability to finally turn the corner, but the fact is that if there is still a fools chance that he can get it together and having a fools chance is better than giving up and having no chance at all. What I have trouble with when talking Bargs is determining when you cut your losses. Many argue that we already should have, others argue that it's not time yet, while a third group contests there are no losses to cut and he's awesome. It becomes a matter of risk vs reward for me:

    Risk: Bargs is who we think he is, we keep him around and he eats up cap space and money until we can move him. Maybe he even gets injured and becomes hard to move.

    Reward: Bargs suddenly gets it and we have an elite all-star.

    The risk here is far far more likely to occur but that risk is really not so bad: cap space is not overly important in a draft rebuild since we are a year or two away from trying so sign any expensive guys and we really have no one else to play the bulk of his minutes anyway. If he gets injured and is hard to move his contract is not so bad that it would cripple us completely.

    If the reward does occur, and I want to stress I don't see this as likely, it makes this franchise a playoff team and a possible threat.

    If you were to put odds on it, it's probably something like 10000 to 1 that he becomes a complete player, but there is little harm in taking the chance. It's like buying a million dollar lottery ticket for 50 cents: sure you probably won't win, but have you really hurt yourself that much through the investment? It would be different if we had some great prospect he was stealing minutes from or we were passing up great deals for him, but I don't see either of those things happening at the moment.

    If we draft Valciunas or another center, or if they try him at PF and he cuts into Ed's minutes he should be moved, but if things remain as they are now, I see no reason to push for a trade.
    There is more risk to keeping him, unfortunately. If he stays in the team and continues to get more than 20 mpg, then he has a detrimental effect on the team. The team continues to struggle defensively and never reaches the level that they could. Basically, the big risk to keeping him is lowering the team's ceiling. To me, that's simply not worth it.

    And the risk to keeping him now and moving him later is that it becomes that much more difficult to trade him. It's a lot easier to trade a 25 year old player who just scored 21 ppg for the season making $8 million who might still have some potential than a 27 year player who it's becoming clear is a bench player and is making $10 million. His value peaked last summer, before he was fully exposed, as he was this year. Just think how many fans he lost this season. His value went down despite his scoring going up. And value certainly isn't going to go up as he gets older.

    The safest thing for the team is to trade him this summer and let another team have to deal with how on earth to use him effectively. After 5 years, I think it's clear he'll never "put it all together". Quite frankly, I never thought he ever had the tools to become an elite player.
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    • I just relaized that Andrea had more defensive rebounds per game than Amir. I find this hilarious..... Sure you can say per 36 amir would average more but how you continue crisizing Andrea's defense yet praising Amir's is comical when in fact Andrea avereages more boards on the DEFENSIVE end.

      Offensive rebounding is impossible to compare since Andrea is mostly on the peremitier and or being defended by 1 or 2 players constantly. Amir is often unguarded giving him easy access to the offensive rebounds. Can't you relate the twoo

      Amir high true shooting percentage + high offensive rebound rate, yet less than 10ppg. This is clear indication of a player being being let to roam free on the offensive end, it indicates open shots, easy putbacks from offensive rebounds because other team is not focuisng on him. The less the defense focuses on you the more inflated your offensive rebounds become and the higher your effectiveness appears.
      Last edited by DunkinDerozan; Mon Apr 25, 2011, 04:47 PM.

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      • Tim W. wrote: View Post
        There is more risk to keeping him, unfortunately. If he stays in the team and continues to get more than 20 mpg, then he has a detrimental effect on the team. The team continues to struggle defensively and never reaches the level that they could. Basically, the big risk to keeping him is lowering the team's ceiling. To me, that's simply not worth it.

        And the risk to keeping him now and moving him later is that it becomes that much more difficult to trade him. It's a lot easier to trade a 25 year old player who just scored 21 ppg for the season making $8 million who might still have some potential than a 27 year player who it's becoming clear is a bench player and is making $10 million. His value peaked last summer, before he was fully exposed, as he was this year. Just think how many fans he lost this season. His value went down despite his scoring going up. And value certainly isn't going to go up as he gets older.

        The safest thing for the team is to trade him this summer and let another team have to deal with how on earth to use him effectively. After 5 years, I think it's clear he'll never "put it all together". Quite frankly, I never thought he ever had the tools to become an elite player.
        I can't disagree with anything you said really, I guess it's a preference thing. I don't think this current group has a high ceiling defensively with or without him but maybe I'm undervaluing the effect a better defensive center coupled with a guy like Ed Davis developing further will have. It comes down to expectations: yours were always low where mine were high. I'd like to be right and the only way that will happen is if we keep him, you'd like to be right and the most definitive way to say that he is a failed project is to trade him. I'm not saying you want him to be bad, I know that you would love him to magically become a 25 and 8 guy who is not a sieve on D just like I would, just that you never had the expectations that many of us did and his being traded would justify your criticism meaning there is no motive to wanting him to stay to see if he can turn it around.

        Not to belabor the point but it all comes down to these expectations. If you expect that taking Bargs off the team and replacing him with someone who is a completely average player will greatly improve d or, even raise our defensive ceiling appreciably, then of course you want him gone. If you think it would only cause our defense to get slightly better while making our offense slightly worse it's not really something you are going to jump at.
        "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

        -Churchill

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        • DunkinDerozan wrote: View Post
          I just relaized that Andrea had more defensive rebounds per game than Amir. I find this hilarious..... Sure you can say per 36 amir would average more but how you continue crisizing Andrea's defense yet praising Amir's is comical when in fact Andrea avereages more boards on the DEFENSIVE end.

          Offensive rebounding is impossible to compare since Andrea is mostly on the peremitier and or being defended by 1 or 2 players constantly. Amir is often unguarded giving him easy access to the offensive rebounds. Can't you relate the twoo

          Amir high true shooting percentage + high offensive rebound rate, yet less than 10ppg. This is clear indication of a player being being let to roam free on the offensive end, it indicates open shots, easy putbacks from offensive rebounds because other team is not focuisng on him. The less the defense focuses on you the more inflated your offensive rebounds become and the higher your effectiveness appears.
          Bargnani averages 0.3 more defensive rebounds IN 10 MORE MINUTES PER GAME!!!!! Amir grabs defensive rebounds at a higher rate than Bargnani. Period. And believe it or not, defensive rebounding is only one part of defense. You can't simply look at one stat out of context and reach a conclusion based on that. That's ridiculous, and I'm pretty sure you know it. And what's even more ridiculous is that you want to look at defensive rebounds out of context, but not true shooting percentage. You're completely inconsistent in your argument.

          Amir is a better defensive player than Bargnani. There's really no way around that. He's got better defensive stats across the board, and that's despite defending the tougher front court player 90% of the time.

          And in regards to your argument that Bargnani can't get offensive rebounds because he's out on the perimeter, let's look at Channing Frye. 90% of Frye's shots are jumpshots from outside the paint, yet he was able to average more rebounds per game, including 1.3 more offensive rebounds a game, despite playing only 24.2 mpg. So why is it that Frye seems to be able to not only rebound, but grab offensive rebounds, while being a perimeter player?
          Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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          • DunkinDerozan wrote: View Post
            I just relaized that Andrea had more defensive rebounds per game than Amir. I find this hilarious..... Sure you can say per 36 amir would average more but how you continue crisizing Andrea's defense yet praising Amir's is comical when in fact Andrea avereages more boards on the DEFENSIVE end.
            During the extra 10 minutes Andrea is on the court ofcourse he'll get more rebounds even by accident the ball would fall near him.Sometimes just looking at the stats doesn't prove much about such point.If you've watched the games you should have noticed the difference between Andrea's rebounds and A.Johnsons's especially on the defensive end.You have a good point about Amir being sometimes left open on offense but it is not entirely due to someone else but his own effort and work to be open.By the way how many times has Amir tipped or slapped the ball to help his teammate get the ball compared to Bargnani?It doesn't show up on stats but when Amir is fighting under the basket and deflects the ball and the ball ends up in some other raptor's hands?The rebound is written to the guy who gains possession of the ball.I've seen numerous times Amir doing exactly that,but I don't remember A.Bragnani doing that more than once.That is just an example that not everything can be seen in stats.

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            • hateslosing wrote: View Post
              I can't disagree with anything you said really, I guess it's a preference thing. I don't think this current group has a high ceiling defensively with or without him but maybe I'm undervaluing the effect a better defensive center coupled with a guy like Ed Davis developing further will have. It comes down to expectations: yours were always low where mine were high. I'd like to be right and the only way that will happen is if we keep him, you'd like to be right and the most definitive way to say that he is a failed project is to trade him. I'm not saying you want him to be bad, I know that you would love him to magically become a 25 and 8 guy who is not a sieve on D just like I would, just that you never had the expectations that many of us did and his being traded would justify your criticism meaning there is no motive to wanting him to stay to see if he can turn it around.

              Not to belabor the point but it all comes down to these expectations. If you expect that taking Bargs off the team and replacing him with someone who is a completely average player will greatly improve d or, even raise our defensive ceiling appreciably, then of course you want him gone. If you think it would only cause our defense to get slightly better while making our offense slightly worse it's not really something you are going to jump at.
              And I can't disagree with anything you said. I understand where you're coming from, we just disagree on where we're going.
              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
              Follow me on Twitter.

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              • DunkinDerozan wrote: View Post
                I just relaized that Andrea had more defensive rebounds per game than Amir. I find this hilarious..... Sure you can say per 36 amir would average more but how you continue crisizing Andrea's defense yet praising Amir's is comical when in fact Andrea avereages more boards on the DEFENSIVE end.

                Offensive rebounding is impossible to compare since Andrea is mostly on the peremitier and or being defended by 1 or 2 players constantly. Amir is often unguarded giving him easy access to the offensive rebounds. Can't you relate the twoo

                Amir high true shooting percentage + high offensive rebound rate, yet less than 10ppg. This is clear indication of a player being being let to roam free on the offensive end, it indicates open shots, easy putbacks from offensive rebounds because other team is not focuisng on him. The less the defense focuses on you the more inflated your offensive rebounds become and the higher your effectiveness appears.
                really? the first paragraph is comical you completely dismiss the per 36 as if it really isn't much,

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                • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  I think you're overvaluing Bargnani's effect on offense. Most good offensive players will have a positive effect on his teammates simply by taking defensive pressure off them. The fact is, though, Amir Johnson has a more positive effect on the offense than Bargnani does. They score more and more efficiently when he's on the court.
                  The Raptors shoot at 49.4 eFG% rate when Amir Johnson is on the court and 48.4 when he is off the court. If I do the same calculation I did for Bargnani and Davis but with a 1/6 weight, his teammates shot at exactly the same 48.4% eFG% they did while he was off the floor.

                  My interpretation is while the offense is more effective with Amir Johnson on the floor then off, his presence on the floor does not create easier, or harder, opportunities for his teammates.

                  As to Raptors scoring more with Amir Johnson on the floor, then with Andrea Bargnani on the floor:

                  The Raptors scored 4943 points in the 2352 minutes Bargnani was on the floor (100.88 per48)
                  The Raptors scored 3874 points in the 1851 minutes Amir Johnson was on the floor (100.46)

                  Bargnani is slightly ahead but the difference is insignificant.

                  The Raptors scored 1.08 per possession with Bargnani on the floor
                  The Raptors scored 1.09 per possession with Amir Johnson on the floor

                  Advantage Amir Jonson this time but again, insignificant.

                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  And that says nothing about the effect they both have on defense.
                  Amir is a much better defender; no one denies that.

                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  I'm also curious why, after five years of seeing no progress in rebounding, you still think he can improve in the area.
                  Andrea's DRR was 16.4, 16.0, and 13.9 the past 3 years. If he can go back to a 16.0+, this may be good enough for the team.

                  Andrea is an awful offensive rebounder and I doubt this number will increase significantly unless if he continues to shoot 80% jump shots.

                  While on the subject of rebounding, it is interesting to note that while Amir is an excellent offensive rebounder, he posted slightly below average PF DRR for the past three years.

                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  See, this is what I don't understand. No one is denying the positive effect that Bargnani has on the offense, but Calderon has just as positive effect, if not more, but I don't see Raptor fans clamouring to want to keep him.
                  I already stated I want Bargnani and Calderon to be starters next year. I predicted Ed Davis will be the starting PF but I would not be surprised at all if Bargnani, Davis, and Johnson have roughly the same mpg.

                  I would like the Raptors to acquire a very good defensive backup center.

                  I am not sold at all on Bayless as his teammates perform worse when he is directing the offense.

                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  Any way you look at it, the level of production he (Bargnani) brings and the overall effect he has on the team is completely out of whack in comparison to the level of desire some fans have for wanting to figure out how to keep him.
                  That's your opinion, not fact.

                  Comment


                  • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                    Bargnani averages 0.3 more defensive rebounds IN 10 MORE MINUTES PER GAME!!!!! Amir grabs defensive rebounds at a higher rate than Bargnani. Period. And believe it or not, defensive rebounding is only one part of defense. You can't simply look at one stat out of context and reach a conclusion based on that. That's ridiculous, and I'm pretty sure you know it. And what's even more ridiculous is that you want to look at defensive rebounds out of context, but not true shooting percentage. You're completely inconsistent in your argument.

                    Amir is a better defensive player than Bargnani. There's really no way around that. He's got better defensive stats across the board, and that's despite defending the tougher front court player 90% of the time.

                    And in regards to your argument that Bargnani can't get offensive rebounds because he's out on the perimeter, let's look at Channing Frye. 90% of Frye's shots are jumpshots from outside the paint, yet he was able to average more rebounds per game, including 1.3 more offensive rebounds a game, despite playing only 24.2 mpg. So why is it that Frye seems to be able to not only rebound, but grab offensive rebounds, while being a perimeter player?
                    bargnani's a HORRIBLE defender ... he averaged more defensive rebounds than Amir just sayinng.. if amir wouldnt be so foul prone he may have been able to avg 35 mpgg...

                    now i know your making things upp.. 90% of the time? where are you getting this data ?

                    channing frye isan't on our team so bringing him up is irrelevant.

                    Comment


                    • I guess he meant Frye's rookie season when he averaged more than 2 off rebounds per game and was used as comparison of a big man whos style of game is mostly around the perimeter.

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                      • raptorsking wrote: View Post
                        really? the first paragraph is comical you completely dismiss the per 36 as if it really isn't much,
                        either blame the coach or the player... ask yourself whyyy did bargnani earn 10 mre minutes per game
                        dont jus adjust the stats to per 36

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                        • footarez wrote: View Post
                          I guess he meant Frye's rookie season when he averaged more than 2 off rebounds per game and was used as comparison of a big man whos style of game is mostly around the perimeter.
                          again bringing frye into the argument is irrelevant

                          but ask yourself what could be some possible reasons for his high offensive rebounding #'s ....

                          was he a focal point on offense? were his teamates skilled enough to attract double teams? or was he shadowed by his defender and doubl teamed all the time? did he shoot the highest percentage of his team shots? or was he the receipient of an open lane to the basket on other peoples misses?
                          Last edited by DunkinDerozan; Mon Apr 25, 2011, 06:35 PM.

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                          • DunkinDerozan wrote: View Post
                            either blame the coach or the player... ask yourself whyyy did bargnani earn 10 mre minutes per game
                            dont jus adjust the stats to per 36
                            1. He's a lot more talented.
                            2. de-facto franchise player

                            triano obviously doesn't have the balls to sit bargnani especially at his price tag, i remember one game where ed davis was going off i mean off vs the pacers but bargs was still being played even though he was struggling and continued to struggle down the stretch.
                            Last edited by raptorsking; Mon Apr 25, 2011, 09:20 PM.

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                            • and he also fouls a lot probably why he didn't get as much playing time it still wouldn't be up to 36 min imo though, he has a fouling trouble not rebounding so i don't know the point of bashing his work on the boards,

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                              • Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                                The Raptors shoot at 49.4 eFG% rate when Amir Johnson is on the court and 48.4 when he is off the court. If I do the same calculation I did for Bargnani and Davis but with a 1/6 weight, his teammates shot at exactly the same 48.4% eFG% they did while he was off the floor.

                                My interpretation is while the offense is more effective with Amir Johnson on the floor then off, his presence on the floor does not create easier, or harder, opportunities for his teammates.

                                As to Raptors scoring more with Amir Johnson on the floor, then with Andrea Bargnani on the floor:

                                The Raptors scored 4943 points in the 2352 minutes Bargnani was on the floor (100.88 per48)
                                The Raptors scored 3874 points in the 1851 minutes Amir Johnson was on the floor (100.46)

                                Bargnani is slightly ahead but the difference is insignificant.

                                The Raptors scored 1.08 per possession with Bargnani on the floor
                                The Raptors scored 1.09 per possession with Amir Johnson on the floor

                                Advantage Amir Jonson this time but again, insignificant.
                                Whether or not Amir actually creates opportunities for others, Amir has a similar effect on the offense that Bargnani does. So if they have an equal effect on offense, but on defense Amir is better, then it Amir has a better overall effect on the team.

                                Now, obviously Bargnani creates more opportunities for others, but so would any other good scorer. But if you can get a good scorer who also isn't a liability on defense, then you're that much better.

                                Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                                Amir is a much better defender; no one denies that.
                                Actually there are a couple that do, but that's another issue altogether.

                                Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                                Andrea's DRR was 16.4, 16.0, and 13.9 the past 3 years. If he can go back to a 16.0+, this may be good enough for the team.

                                Andrea is an awful offensive rebounder and I doubt this number will increase significantly unless if he continues to shoot 80% jump shots.

                                While on the subject of rebounding, it is interesting to note that while Amir is an excellent offensive rebounder, he posted slightly below average PF DRR for the past three years.
                                I completely agree that Amir is not a good defensive rebounder, which is why teaming him with Bargnani is a bad idea. One thing about rebounding I've noticed. The bigger, stronger guys tend to be better defensive rebounders and the quicker, more active guys tend to be better offensive rebounders. It's obviously the way that rebounds are obtained. Defensive rebounders generally require boxing your man out and out muscling him. Offensive rebounding is about getting to the ball and getting around your opponent.

                                Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                                I already stated I want Bargnani and Calderon to be starters next year. I predicted Ed Davis will be the starting PF but I would not be surprised at all if Bargnani, Davis, and Johnson have roughly the same mpg.

                                I would like the Raptors to acquire a very good defensive backup center.

                                I am not sold at all on Bayless as his teammates perform worse when he is directing the offense.
                                I'm also not sold on Bayless, and I've been a consistent defender of Calderon, but I also don't think he's probably the long term answer at PG, for the Raptors. I think he can start on a contender, but he would have to be surrounded by much more talent than he is right now.

                                As for a triumvirate of Bargnani, Davis and Amir, we've already seen that simply doesn't work. I'm not sure what you're expecting to be different in the future.

                                Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                                That's your opinion, not fact.
                                It's definitely my opinion, but the fact of the matter is that Bargnani does not have an overall positive effect on the team. Neither do DeRozan and Davis, but they can be excused, at this point, because of their youth. If you haven't learned how to have a positive effect on the floor after five years (and as many minutes as Bargnani has played) I really don't see you ever becoming that important a player. Knowing this, why are some fans so desperate to try and make it work?
                                Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                                Follow me on Twitter.

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