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  • Tim W. wrote: View Post
    And those guys were more popular, and that's the point. Amare, Carmelo and Durant made it ahead of Dirk despite being Dirk being a better player. And while I have a lot of problems with All-Star voting, what it is a good indication of is the popularity of a player.

    Besides, are you really trying to tell me that Bargnani would bring fans in? Really? A guy who probably will never make an All-Star team?

    And to answer RapthoseLeafs comment, Bargnani will certainly bring in a few Italian fans, but he's certainly not enough of a draw to make enough of a difference in the box office. Very few people are going to buy season tickets based on whether or not Bargnani is on the team.
    It's a matter of degrees. Does the fact that Dirk was never voted in as a starter mean that he isn't popular? Of course not, that's absurd. He's simply not as popular as the uber-athletes that people vote to watch in the glorified pick-up game that is the all-star game (and Tim Duncan, who has a vice grip on one F spot). A quick look at the attendance figures form the last few years shows that Dallas consistently places in the top 10 and more often than not in the top 5 in attendance. They win a lot of games, and Dirk has a ton of supporters.

    Let me put it another way. Let's say for argument's sake that after Bosh was traded, Bargs was shipped to NO for Emeka Okafor. These two played roughly the same number of minutes and Okafor produced about 4 more wins going by win shares. So again, for argument's sake only, let's give the Raps 22 wins; still pretty dismal, and not enough to pack the building by any means.

    More important is how the team would have looked on the court. With Okafor at the 5 playing alongside Johnson and Davis at the 4, the paint would have been packed tight. None of those guys have much of a post game, so we can assume most of the scoring would have been left to the guards/wings. The problem is, most of them don't shoot very well from deep. Calderon and Bayless are average from deep, and Barbosa is passable, but the rest of the team struggles from the outside. On top of that, Barbosa, Bayless and DeRozan all get a lot of their points from driving, which is far more difficult when the paint is packed as defenders sag. Plus there's the reduction in open looks from reduced the drive and kick game. All in all, the offense would have been ugly. The team may have won a few more games on account of better defence and rebounding, but they would have been a far less entertaining team to watch for the average fan. So, I would expect attendance to have declined relative to keeping Bargnani.

    Now conversely, let's suppose they traded Bargnani for Monta Ellis, another one dimensional scorer. The team would have been similarly dismal, but arguably more entertaining because Ellis is a lot of fun to watch. So I would expect attendance to have risen slightly.

    My point is that it's all relative. Obviously Bargs isn't going to bring in fans like a superstar, but to suggest that he doesn't help to fill seats is, I think, a stretch. He helps make the Raps an entertaining team (if, ultlimately, a bad one). A good example of this effect is the Warriors, who field a bad yet entertaining team and do very well in attendance (though they have a rabid fan base, so it's tough to deduce how much of a correlation exists there). I'm not foolish enough to suggest that Bargs brings fans in solely because they like to watch him play; as I've stated multiple times now, there are a very few players in the league who can make that claim and who sell season tickets through their presence alone. But I think the combination of his fans and the fans drawn to the team because he helps enable an entertaining style of play certainly has value.

    Now one of the biggest differences we seem to have regarding Bargnani is what his trade value is based on. But in actuality, we see more eye to eye than you think. Now, you feel his trade value is based mostly on his productivity rather than potential, yet you want to keep him longer because you feel there's a good chance that Casey will be able to get more out of Bargnani. Isn't that exactly what Bargnani defenders have been saying, and isn't that saying that is only Bargnani had the right coach and the right system, he'd be more valuable?
    This is where you've misquoted me a bit. I never stated that Bargnani would play better under Casey on the defensive end, I said that the team might play better defence around him (and likely in spite of him), lending credibility to the idea that he might just need to be in the right system. I don't personally think Casey will make much of a difference to the way Bargs plays, but a GM with a strong defensive team and a lack of scoring may be more willing to take a chance on Bargs if it's shown that the Raps can win games despite his poor play on that end.

    A good example of this is the Jeff Green / Kendrick Perkins trade that I mentioned earlier. Danny Ainge decided to trade away a strength in order to shore up a perceived weakness in an effort to ensure that the Celtics had someone to guard LeBron. That failed miserably, but GMs take these risks all the time because of the various pressures of having to appease owners, fans, closing windows, etc. So if Casey moves the Raps from the cellar defensively to, say, 18-20th, GMs may decide that Bargnani is a liability that can be hidden rather than a defensive leper.

    Besides, if his trade value is based on his productivity, then why would you pay a guy $11 million dollars for basically something that Ryan Anderson or Matt Bonner can do for the fraction of the price. Now, obviously those guys don't have the skills that Bargnani does, but you said yourself that no one would trade for him to become their first or second option, but simply as a big who can spread the floor. Hell, at least Anderson and Bonner aren't liabilities half the time their on the floor. And Ryan Anderson actually had a higher PER than Bargnani.
    As you point out, those are poor comparisons in my opinion. Ryan Anderson is still on his rookie deal and Matt Bonner is, well, Matt Bonner. How about Rashard Lewis, who is more productive than Bargnani, and paid accordingly (though obviously waaaay more than he should be). It's tough to find direct comparisons here because there aren't a lot of players with Bargnani's skillset, so maybe it's easier to look at it this way: is 9-12 million for a 3rd option really so uncommon (11 is his 13/14 salary)? It might be in the new CBA, that'll depend on any salary rollbacks and what the capped max contracts are worth, but it certainly hasn't been in this past CBA.

    More importantly, if 9-12 million is too much for a 3rd option under the new CBA, how are you going to trade Bargnani anyway? Who's going to take him at that price unless they think he can be a valuable asset? We both agree that no GM could really think that his current play merits it, nor does his waning potential, so who would take him unless that opinion changes, and what kind of asset would you get in return?

    Now, it's my contention that Bargnani's trade value peaked in the summer of 2010. Back then, you could have argued that he simply hadn't been given a chance to shine (although I would have argued against that) or some of the other many arguments his defenders used that summer. It wasn't a rare opinion that he might finally be able to measure up to the potential he apparently had. And then he was given the chance and, while he certainly was able to score at a good rate, his season was considered by most to be a disappointment, mostly due to his lack of development on defense and on the boards.

    Now we've got one more excuse. That Bargnani simply needs a good defensive coach to kick his butt. Not nearly as many people are drinking the Kool-Aid on this one, but there are enough to show that people still believe he has the potential to be a better player. Maybe not great, but better. Even you.

    The problem with that is, what happens if he DOESN'T improve? What happens to his trade value, then? You are right that GMs tend to gamble, but the more excuses you cross of the list for Bargnani, the less likely a GM is going to want to gamble on a guy who arguably doesn't even have a positive effect when he's on the floor. If you've got an asset that probably won't go up in value much, if at all, but has a better chance of going down, then the smart thing to do is trade that asset for something else.
    Well I addressed the idea above that Casey will kick him in the butt. I don't really think it'll happen. It might, he might have a Josh Smith of 09/10 kind of awakening, but I agree that the odds are slim. I think the better chance is that he'll find a way to hide Bargnani and lend credence to the idea that he can be hidden if he's surrounded by good defensive players and a good defensive coach. Because although the Raps may have such a coach for whenever the next season is, they certainly won't have upgraded their personnel much on that side of the ball.

    Where I think we disagree is how much his value will go down with a more-of-the-same season. I think there's more to be gained than lost by waiting to see because a) I don't think that trading Bargs will return the kind of prospect/pick that I think the Raps should be searching for and b) I don't think his value can go down much if it turns out he can't be taught defence or hidden. I think at best right now you could swap him for, say, a Monta Ellis type player (ie a smiliarly one dimensional player that doesn't help you win games), but that's just trading the problem from one position to another and I'd argue that a big that can shoot is easier to move than a guard. Don't get me wrong, if BC could get a solid pick in this year's draft or a even a guy like Nic Batum for him, I'd say do it in a heartbeat. But like you, I think that the value of his potential is all but gone. That's why I'm interested to see if it can be rekindled by a stretch of good play or by the Raps improving defensively. I just don't think his trade value can fall as far as you do (since I think it has essentially levelled off), so I'm more open to the gamble. Just a difference in styles really.

    As for the whole shots per game argument, obviously my argument isn't based on any science, but the fact of the matter is that Bargnani took more shots per game last year than Bosh did at any time in his career. And a lot of that was due to the fact that 2 of the 3 players who were expected to help share the scoring burden missed significant time to injury. While injuries happen, it's not likely that literally half of your expected top scorers are going to miss nearly an entire season between them. In the 39 games that Kleiza did play, most of those injured, apparently, his still took 10 shots per game.
    Sure, his shots per game may drop. But Kleiza is coming off of a serious injury so who knows how he'll play, or how many minutes. Sonny Weems and his 9 shots per game are gone, and Barbosa is likely to be traded. Looking at the scorers on the team you've got Bargs, DeRozan, Bayless, Barbosa, and that's about it. Everyone else plays through those guys, and we all know what a black hole Bargs is. So if the offence is designed to run through Bayless (assuming here that he's starting), DeRozan and Bargs, then Bargs will probably see the ball a lot; like I mentioned in an earlier post, he's still sadly the 1st or 2nd option on offence. And he'll probably jack up shots. Just as likely is that his total shots may decline a bit but his efficiency might increase, resulting in a healthy scoring average regardless. So his PPG may drop, but they're not going to fall off a cliff to something like 16ish, and certainly not enough to convince anyone that he can't be a 3rd option / floor spacer, which we discussed earlier. So what's the harm? I just don't see his value dropping that much if his scoring average declines a bit. [/QUOTE]

    Lastly, this argument that you can't have a front court of Valanciunas, Davis and Amir because none of them are great scorers, until Chris Bosh came along, do you know how much the next highest scoring Raptor big man scored? 14.5 ppg. It was Antonio Davis.

    I think a front line that all play defense, rebound and score efficiently trumps a front line that can score, but can't rebound or play consistent defense.
    I didn't say you can't have it, just that it makes the offence more difficult if defenders can sag because only Amir can consistently step out beyond 10-15 feet. Especially when your team lacks shooters at the wings to compensate. I don't see any Vince Carters on the current team, nobody that can create something out of nothing with ease (let alone any MoPetes, Donyell Marshalls, Lamond Murrays, Tracey Murrays, Dell Currys, etc - all of whom had better 3pt percentages while with the Raps than any Raptors last year aside from Calderon (and Peja for the brief period he was here). Like I said with the Okafor example above, bigs that can't space the floor makes for some ugly and inefficient basketball (nobody likes watching long 2s clang off the rim all game).

    I felt that this was an intelligent and entertaining discussion, which seems to be a rarity on the internet. I'm sorry you don't feel the same way.
    I didn't mean it that way - I get sucked into these discussions (as you can tell) and typically ignore other things that I should be doing instead (hence the wasting time comment). Luckilly (sort of) this flu just won't die so I'm still off work, sitting in front of my computer with lots of time to kill.

    Comment


    • Nilanka wrote: View Post
      I find it truly remarkable how some fans can still hold out hope that Bargnani "might" turn his career around. Is 5 years really too short a sample size? Really? Is watching paint dry a fun Sunday afternoon activity for these people with infinite patience?

      I can already hear the excuses if Bargnani (to nobody's surprise) continues to struggle in ALL aspects of the game outside scoring:

      - "It was only his 1st year under a new coach. Let's see how his 7th season turns out."
      - "We didn't have Valanciunas on the roster. He'll be able to cover for Bargnani once he arrives."
      - "Opposing defences gameplan around Bargnani, which explains his off numbers. It doesn't mean he's a bad player"
      - "Blah, blah, blah"

      Imagine Dion Phaneuf scoring 30 goals a season, but finishing with a league worst minus-35. He would be hockey's equivalent to Bargnani.
      I admit im one of the Raptors fans (who you find remarkable) who think Bargnani "might" improve. The difference is, im also open to the fact the he "might not". There's a possibility he "might" improve, no matter how dire you describe it (grim, slight, next to nothing, 1 in a million) but the fact of the matter is, "might" is still a possibility.

      Well, excuses go both ways.
      If i may, i would also like to use these excuses IF Bargnani does improve:
      -well, he got a new coach, and a defensive one at that, thats why he improved
      -well, JV is a defensive center, and worked well with Bargnani, thats why he improved
      -well, the defense focused on Demar and JV, thats why his numbers went up.

      See? Im pretty sure fans like you will be using pretty much the same excuses IF Bargnani does improve. The guy is in a no-win situation.
      Last edited by TheGloveinRapsUniform; Mon Nov 7, 2011, 12:25 PM.

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      • tbihis wrote: View Post
        I admit im one of the Raptors fans (who you find remarkable) who think Bargnani "might" improve. The difference is, im also open to the fact the he "might not". There's a possibility he "might" improve, no matter how dire you describe it (grim, slight, next to nothing, 1 in a million) but the fact of the matter is, "might" is still a possibility.

        Well, excuses go both ways.
        If i may, i would also like to use these excuses IF Bargnani does improve:
        -well, he got a new coach, and a defensive one at that, thats why he improved
        -well, JV is a defensive center, and worked well with Bargnani, thats why he improved
        -well, the defense focused on Demar and JV, thats why his numbers went up.

        See? Im pretty sure fans like you will be using pretty much the same excuses IF Bargnani does improve. The guy is in a no-win situation.
        I agree that both sides of the argument are possibilities, but in my opinion, the odds of improvement are unlikely, based on the best indicator of success (i.e. historical evidence).

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        • Nilanka wrote: View Post
          I agree that both sides of the argument are possibilities, but in my opinion, the odds of improvement are unlikely, based on the best indicator of success (i.e. historical evidence).
          oh yeah, i agree too, i even used 4 adjectives/phrases to describe how little the chance is. but the point is, there's still a chance and thats what im sticking to, hehehe. me and tim w. have gone over this sooo many times. and basically what it boiled down to, was a difference in opinion.

          there is historical evidence, but unless you have a crystal ball, only then you can be sure.

          Comment


          • tbihis wrote: View Post
            oh yeah, i agree too, i even used 4 adjectives/phrases to describe how little the chance is. but the point is, there's still a chance and thats what im sticking to, hehehe.
            One could make the argument that Bargnani's odds of improving would never truly be zero. The possibility would always exist on some level, no matter what year of his contract we're discussing. But it's management's responsibility to play the percentages and make roster moves based on strong statistical correlations (while fully acknowledging that they are correlations, and not facts).

            The way I see it, we can simplify the discussion into 2 negative outcomes (from a Raptor fan's perspective):

            1. Bargnani is traded, and improves in his new surroundings.
            OR
            2. Bargnani is retained, and his game regresses, thus making the final 4 years of his contract difficult to trade.

            I can live with #1, but definitely not #2.

            Comment


            • Nilanka wrote: View Post
              One could make the argument that Bargnani's odds of improving would never truly be zero. The possibility would always exist on some level, no matter what year of his contract we're discussing. But it's management's responsibility to play the percentages and make roster moves based on strong statistical correlations (while fully acknowledging that they are correlations, and not facts).

              The way I see it, we can simplify the discussion into 2 negative outcomes (from a Raptor fan's perspective):

              1. Bargnani is traded, and improves in his new surroundings.
              OR
              2. Bargnani is retained, and his game regresses, thus making the final 4 years of his contract difficult to trade.

              I can live with #1, but definitely not #2.
              I could not agree more. And ive always, always lobbied for Bargnani to be traded. That is the only way, IMO.

              BUT, what i want and what i think are unfortunately 2 different things. I dont think Bargnani will be traded, at least not this season (if there is one) and even the next. I could be wrong, but i just dont see any signs. BC calling him out, IMO, is him clinging to the fact that Bargnani is his franchise player and wants him to realize that he is that and should do his best to improve in the areas he is lacking. Otherwise, why bother calling him out? just trade him if they really wanted him out. The same thing that Phil did to Kobe.

              All my comments on Bargnani have been based on the idea of the Raptors retaining him.

              Comment


              • tbihis wrote: View Post
                BUT, what i want and what i think are unfortunately 2 different things. I dont think Bargnani will be traded, at least not this season (if there is one) and even the next. I could be wrong, but i just dont see any signs. BC calling him out, IMO, is him clinging to the fact that Bargnani is his franchise player and wants him to realize that he is that and should do his best to improve in the areas he is lacking. Otherwise, why bother calling him out? just trade him if they really wanted him out. The same thing that Phil did to Kobe.
                I see things differently (not surprisingly). I've seen a lot of signs that Colangelo is much more willing to trade Bargnani. Up until late last season, there have NEVER been any trade rumours regarding Bargnani before. None. Then there was talk of him being traded to New York and Leo Rautins mentions the rumour, giving some credence to it. Then Matt and Jack discuss the idea of trading him over the summer (something that the lockout prevented). Keep in mind that Leo, Matt and Jack are all Raptor employees and have mostly been silent in their criticism of Bargnani. So what exactly changed?

                Well, Colangelo changed his official tune on Bargnani after the season, referring to him, for the first time ever, as an asset and seemed somewhat exasperated by the lack of progress in his game. Could he simply have been calling him out, a la Kobe, as you mention? Possibly, but adding the one out, the fact that he's been "playing out of position" all this time makes me think, when combined with the rumour talk, that Colangelo is doing a few things. The first is to fan the trade rumours hoping to actually get some legitimate offers. Secondly, by giving Bargnani the excuse he's been playing out of position, he gives other GMs a reason to offer more for him. If he only played beside a defensive center, he'd be better. Lastly, he's preparing Raptor fans for the possibility Bargnani will be traded.

                Look at it this way. The Raptors simply don't need him anymore. If he really is a PF, well the team already has two young PFs under contract who both have more two way potential than Bargnani. And with the drafting of Valanciunas, SOMEONE is going to have to go to make room. Amir is probably the least likely candidate to be moved, in my opinion, because of his reasonable contract and ability to be productive no matter what role he plays. So that means it's between Bargnani and Davis. Two things working against Bargnani are his contract and his lack of overall development. Davis is certainly worth more on the open market, but rookie contracts are notoriously difficult to trade and get equal value back. And Davis' potential makes him more of a danger to trade away. Who are you most likely to get bitten later on for trading? Bargnani or Davis? Bargnani, for all his offensive talent, even Colangelo has come to realize will never be the player he hoped. After only an incomplete rookie season, though, Davis showed excellent defensive potential and even started to show some decent offensive potential.

                I think it's ridiculous for those to say that Colangelo will "never" trade Bargnani. He certainly doesn't have a history of sitting on his mistakes, so there's no reason to think he'll start now.
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                • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  I see things differently (not surprisingly). I've seen a lot of signs that Colangelo is much more willing to trade Bargnani. Up until late last season, there have NEVER been any trade rumours regarding Bargnani before. None. Then there was talk of him being traded to New York and Leo Rautins mentions the rumour, giving some credence to it. Then Matt and Jack discuss the idea of trading him over the summer (something that the lockout prevented). Keep in mind that Leo, Matt and Jack are all Raptor employees and have mostly been silent in their criticism of Bargnani. So what exactly changed?
                  Actually, there was a very rampant rumor that the Raptors were in discussions with the Mavs that involved Bargnani and Josh Howard. I think this was back in 2009 - http://dimemag.com/2009/01/nba-trade...drea-bargnani/.
                  I think there were a couple of other sites that reported it but i figured Dime is one of the more reputable ones.
                  I cant comment on that coz i didnt hear Leo, Matt or Jack talk about Bargnani and him being traded, i tried to google it but couldnt come up with anything. I wont be surprised though if they did talk about it.
                  Well, Colangelo changed his official tune on Bargnani after the season, referring to him, for the first time ever, as an asset and seemed somewhat exasperated by the lack of progress in his game. Could he simply have been calling him out, a la Kobe, as you mention? Possibly, but adding the one out, the fact that he's been "playing out of position" all this time makes me think, when combined with the rumour talk, that Colangelo is doing a few things. The first is to fan the trade rumours hoping to actually get some legitimate offers. Secondly, by giving Bargnani the excuse he's been playing out of position, he gives other GMs a reason to offer more for him. If he only played beside a defensive center, he'd be better. Lastly, he's preparing Raptor fans for the possibility Bargnani will be traded.
                  I dont think BC said anything about the lack of progress in his game, he specifically pointed out his rebounding and help defense when he mentioned the negatives. But he clearly pointed out how Bargnani improved his scoring, and the mismatches he creates.
                  I think its all based on interpretation. By saying Bargnani is playing out of position, he could also be saying my other 2 PFs are available so make me an offer, and im willing to trade. I agree that these are legit signs, but Colangelo hasnt really moved forward on any of these comments. These are pretty much your own interpretations of what possibly could come off his comments. On the other hand, he's already acted on some pro-Bargnani comments that he made post-season. He said they probably need a defensive center to pair Bargnani with, he drafts a defensive center in JV. And then he goes out and gets a legit defensive coach who has worked with a jump-shooting european big. Again, these moves can be open to interpretation, but IMO, they have a lot to do with Bargnani's deficiencies more than anything else. The beauty of these is if it doesnt work for Bargnani, its still a win-win situation for BC because he has a potentially good big in JV and a potentially solid coach in Casey. But at least in his conscience he can say he tried to make it work for Bargnani.
                  Look at it this way. The Raptors simply don't need him anymore. If he really is a PF, well the team already has two young PFs under contract who both have more two way potential than Bargnani. And with the drafting of Valanciunas, SOMEONE is going to have to go to make room. Amir is probably the least likely candidate to be moved, in my opinion, because of his reasonable contract and ability to be productive no matter what role he plays. So that means it's between Bargnani and Davis. Two things working against Bargnani are his contract and his lack of overall development. Davis is certainly worth more on the open market, but rookie contracts are notoriously difficult to trade and get equal value back. And Davis' potential makes him more of a danger to trade away. Who are you most likely to get bitten later on for trading? Bargnani or Davis? Bargnani, for all his offensive talent, even Colangelo has come to realize will never be the player he hoped. After only an incomplete rookie season, though, Davis showed excellent defensive potential and even started to show some decent offensive potential.
                  I agree, we share the same opinion on Bargnani, but does BC and the Raptors share the same sentiment? Could be, could be not. Dont get me wrong, we all fell in love with Amir this past season. His hustle, putbacks, and overall demeanor was just a refreshing thing for the young raps, but, if we see it, so do other GMs. Are other GMs more likely to over-offer for Amir, IMO, yes. And that could be the difference maker. The trio of JV, Amir and Ed would probably not have any problems scoring, but it would be a lot easier if Bargnani is there. Amir is 10 even 20x better as a player than Bargnani ever will be, but the question is, who will be the better fit with the Raps core? IMO, Bargnani is.
                  I think it's ridiculous for those to say that Colangelo will "never" trade Bargnani. He certainly doesn't have a history of sitting on his mistakes, so there's no reason to think he'll start now.
                  I dont think he'll never ever trade Bargnani, but i think he wants one more shot at making it work. Like i said, its still a win win for him if it doesnt.

                  Comment


                  • should we start a pool to see when this thread blows up again? I'm calling Dec 7th.

                    Comment


                    • GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                      should we start a pool to see when this thread blows up again? I'm calling Dec 7th.
                      You think it's not going to happen until the season starts? I'm guessing as soon as the deal is ratified, since they'll be able to finally trade him...which is something they should do!
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                      • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                        You think it's not going to happen until the season starts? I'm guessing as soon as the deal is ratified, since they'll be able to finally trade him...which is something they should do!
                        Bargnani is their most effective offensive weapon. Trading him would be stupid when they are going to be in a position to contend for a conference title in 2013/2014.

                        Puffer












                        :-)

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                        • Puffer wrote: View Post
                          Bargnani is their most effective offensive weapon. Trading him would be stupid when they are going to be in a position to contend for a conference title in 2013/2014.

                          Puffer
                          Nice try.
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                          • I did throw the smiley in there at the bottom.

                            Puffer

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                            • Puffer wrote: View Post
                              I did throw the smiley in there at the bottom.

                              Puffer
                              Even without the smiley, you were too obvious.
                              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                              • So here we go. Here are a list of reasons to show why the argument that Bargnani's rebounding will improve simply by moving him to PF makes very little to no sense.

                                - There are far, far more above average rebounders at PF than at center, so Bargnani will have to compete with better rebounders to get more rebounds.

                                - While Bargnani will have a height advantage over most Pfs , most of his them will have a quickness advantage, so it kind of nullifies any advantage.

                                - Whether by circumstances or by design, Bargnani generally defended the least productive frontcourt player, which was most often the center. By moving him to PF and bringing in a veteran center, Bargnani will have to defend better players. That doesn't bode well for ANY of his stats.
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