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The number of wins that a team can achieve.
To see who best contributes to that aspect of the game one can follow (Wins Share per 48) WS/48 and Wins Shares stats of their favorite and not so favorite players on the link below. Just click on the name of the player and scroll down to advanced stats. League average for WS/48 is .100 Wins Shares, the more the better. Win Shares for the individual players on a team add up to approximately the total wins that a team actually achieved in that season, not counting the "team factor" see below
For example Bosh had Wins Shares of 9.6. That means that according to the WS/48 number and the minutes that Bosh played he was statistically responsible for approximately 9.6 of the Raptors wins last season.
Lets go through the rotation players from last season and see how their numbers in this area stack up.
Player---------WS/48---------Wins Shares
-----------------------------------------------
Bosh ---------.185---------------9.6
Jack----------.102---------------4.8
Johnson-------.155---------------4.5
Calderon------.111---------------4.2
Bargnani------.072---------------4.2
Turk----------.071---------------3.4
DeRozan------.066----------------2.3
Weems-------.044----------------1.3
Belinelli-------.049----------------1.2
Rasho--------.089----------------0.8
Banks--------.095----------------0.5
Wright--------.011---------------0.3
Evans---------.033--------------0.2
Total---------------------------37.3
Total actual wins----------------40.0
----------------------------------------
Team factor------------2.7
================================
If you add up the Cavs Win Shares from last season they don't come close to the 61 wins that the Cavs achieved in 09-10. There is a much larger team factor. Team factors include the ability of a player to make the overall team better. James impact on the Cavs overall performance was way beyond his Win Share numbers. I am of the opinion and the numbers support this, a lot more so than Bosh impact on the Raptors team performance.
WS/48 is impacted greatly by a player's (Usage factor) USG%, eg. Bosh's USG% was a very high 28.7. By contrast Bargnani's was 22.3 and. DeRozan was 18.1 and Johnson only 14.5. So Bosh's Usage factor last season was twice what Johnson's was, which based upon what we saw take place during the Raptors games last season makes total sense.
The point being is that with Bosh gone the Raptors won't lose all of the 9.6 wins that Bosh was responsible for. They will lose less because his USG% will be allocated among the players now on the roster based upon their WS/48 and minutes played in 10-11.
Players like DeRozan and Weems should show improved WS/48 especially DeRozan. Kleiza .103 and Barbosa .112 not only have better career WS/48 numbers than those achieved by Turk and Wright last season but their career WS/48 exceed the league average.
Anderson in his rookies season had WS/48 of .070 a little below Rasho's. However, no reason he can't increase it a bit in his second season in the NBA. Finally their is Ed Davis. I suspect that his WS/48 will be close to the league average of .100.
Yes other teams have gotten better but other than the Bosh loss so have the Raptors through individual player growth, improved coaching and the addition of Davis, Anderson, Kleiza and Barbosa. The latter three are an improvement over the three that they replaced; i.e., Turk, Wright Rasho.
Finally six of the key rotation players will now have played together for one full season, which is more than the Raptors group last season had at the beginning of 09-10.
One can always make the argument that Bosh made the Raptors better beyond the plain numbers. I do not happen to agree with this. I think at best he was neutral and possibly even endothermic to the Raptors team.
We shall see soon enough. only 48 more days to go until camp opens. The number on the link of course changes daily.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/
So it doesn't make sense that the Raptors will win only 30 games in 10-11 or even only 35.
As I see it 35 will be the absolute minimum that the Raptors win in 10-11 barring any significant injuries. My sense of it is that the number will exceed last season's win total of 40.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.html
To see who best contributes to that aspect of the game one can follow (Wins Share per 48) WS/48 and Wins Shares stats of their favorite and not so favorite players on the link below. Just click on the name of the player and scroll down to advanced stats. League average for WS/48 is .100 Wins Shares, the more the better. Win Shares for the individual players on a team add up to approximately the total wins that a team actually achieved in that season, not counting the "team factor" see below
For example Bosh had Wins Shares of 9.6. That means that according to the WS/48 number and the minutes that Bosh played he was statistically responsible for approximately 9.6 of the Raptors wins last season.
Lets go through the rotation players from last season and see how their numbers in this area stack up.
Player---------WS/48---------Wins Shares
-----------------------------------------------
Bosh ---------.185---------------9.6
Jack----------.102---------------4.8
Johnson-------.155---------------4.5
Calderon------.111---------------4.2
Bargnani------.072---------------4.2
Turk----------.071---------------3.4
DeRozan------.066----------------2.3
Weems-------.044----------------1.3
Belinelli-------.049----------------1.2
Rasho--------.089----------------0.8
Banks--------.095----------------0.5
Wright--------.011---------------0.3
Evans---------.033--------------0.2
Total---------------------------37.3
Total actual wins----------------40.0
----------------------------------------
Team factor------------2.7
================================
If you add up the Cavs Win Shares from last season they don't come close to the 61 wins that the Cavs achieved in 09-10. There is a much larger team factor. Team factors include the ability of a player to make the overall team better. James impact on the Cavs overall performance was way beyond his Win Share numbers. I am of the opinion and the numbers support this, a lot more so than Bosh impact on the Raptors team performance.
WS/48 is impacted greatly by a player's (Usage factor) USG%, eg. Bosh's USG% was a very high 28.7. By contrast Bargnani's was 22.3 and. DeRozan was 18.1 and Johnson only 14.5. So Bosh's Usage factor last season was twice what Johnson's was, which based upon what we saw take place during the Raptors games last season makes total sense.
The point being is that with Bosh gone the Raptors won't lose all of the 9.6 wins that Bosh was responsible for. They will lose less because his USG% will be allocated among the players now on the roster based upon their WS/48 and minutes played in 10-11.
Players like DeRozan and Weems should show improved WS/48 especially DeRozan. Kleiza .103 and Barbosa .112 not only have better career WS/48 numbers than those achieved by Turk and Wright last season but their career WS/48 exceed the league average.
Anderson in his rookies season had WS/48 of .070 a little below Rasho's. However, no reason he can't increase it a bit in his second season in the NBA. Finally their is Ed Davis. I suspect that his WS/48 will be close to the league average of .100.
Yes other teams have gotten better but other than the Bosh loss so have the Raptors through individual player growth, improved coaching and the addition of Davis, Anderson, Kleiza and Barbosa. The latter three are an improvement over the three that they replaced; i.e., Turk, Wright Rasho.
Finally six of the key rotation players will now have played together for one full season, which is more than the Raptors group last season had at the beginning of 09-10.
One can always make the argument that Bosh made the Raptors better beyond the plain numbers. I do not happen to agree with this. I think at best he was neutral and possibly even endothermic to the Raptors team.
We shall see soon enough. only 48 more days to go until camp opens. The number on the link of course changes daily.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/
So it doesn't make sense that the Raptors will win only 30 games in 10-11 or even only 35.
As I see it 35 will be the absolute minimum that the Raptors win in 10-11 barring any significant injuries. My sense of it is that the number will exceed last season's win total of 40.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.html
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