Buddahfan wrote:
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The Number Of Minimum Wins That The Raptors Will Achieve In 10-11 Will Exceed...
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My only problem with this is who are the wins going to come against?
The raptors have been a very good home team in recent years and I could see them maybe going 24-17 at the ACC, but as a young, unproven team devoid of a true leader they will struggle mightily on the road and have a hard team beating almost any western conference team. The young legs should help them on back to backs, which have historically been the raps Achilles heel, but I can't help but feel they are going to be a streaky team that will have an exceptionally hard time breaking out of slumps.
For them to approach anything close to 40 wins they will have to beat some very good teams on the road, take care of business at home and then win nearly every game against sub par teams.
Without roster changes I think they will struggle to win 30 games and be reminiscent of the Thunder two years ago, bristling with young talent, but no idea how to translate it into wins.
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Man some of you remind me of those fans in the movie Major League, they are full of over enthusiasm and hope at the begining of the season despite having a bad roster:
and then after the all star break reality sets in and they turn into this:
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mo-sales wrote: View PostMy only problem with this is who are the wins going to come against?
The raptors have been a very good home team in recent years and I could see them maybe going 24-17 at the ACC, but as a young, unproven team devoid of a true leader they will struggle mightily on the road and have a hard team beating almost any western conference team. The young legs should help them on back to backs, which have historically been the raps Achilles heel, but I can't help but feel they are going to be a streaky team that will have an exceptionally hard time breaking out of slumps.
For them to approach anything close to 40 wins they will have to beat some very good teams on the road, take care of business at home and then win nearly every game against sub par teams.
Without roster changes I think they will struggle to win 30 games and be reminiscent of the Thunder two years ago, bristling with young talent, but no idea how to translate it into wins.
There are four guys who will have to learn to deal with road games at a higher level this season. Davis, Johnson, DeRozan and Weems. The other rotation guys have plenty of experience in playing and winning on the road. So while I would love to see more experience in this area I don't see it comparable to a number of young teams like the Thunder who struggled so much to win on the road in KD's first or even second season.Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s
Memories some so sweet, indeed
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“As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
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Hotshot wrote: View PostMan some of you remind me of those fans in the movie Major League, they are full of over enthusiasm and hope at the begining of the season despite having a bad roster:
and then after the all star break reality sets in and they turn into this:
Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s
Memories some so sweet, indeed
Larger Photo of the avatar
“As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
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Buddahfan wrote: View PostI agree with the basic thought on this but I think that you overstate the this problem. In my opinion the Raptors will have an over .500 record on the road against lottery teams. Don't forget that right now except for Bosh, Hedo and Wright the entire core remains in tact. Kleiza and Barbosa are experienced. In Kleiza's case both in the U.S. and in Europe. Anderson while having only one year of NBA experience is 30 and has a ton of professional experience out of North America. Yes the competition level was not as high but winning on the road in a professional basketball league is just as tough no matter what league you play in. In fact in Europe it is even harder, believe it or not.
There are four guys who will have to learn to deal with road games at a higher level this season. Davis, Johnson, DeRozan and Weems. The other rotation guys have plenty of experience in playing and winning on the road. So while I would love to see more experience in this area I don't see it comparable to a number of young teams like the Thunder who struggled so much to win on the road in KD's first or even second season.
Almost every team in the league has a more proven go to guy than the raptors, barring Derozan making a miraculous leap I don't think that will change and I don't think Bargs has the mindset to be that guy night in and night out. This also says nothing of the defense and the ability for the raptors to make stops in the 4th. They haven't improved thier defense at the 1 and 5 which were tantamount to the failures of last season and while the defense from the 2,3 and 4 will be markedly improved, it still makes them at best a mediocre defensive team and at worst back near the cellar.
I think a lot of pieces are in place, but they are a year away from being able to be competitive and win and a point guard away from being anything other than a pesky knat for most teams. The two best things they have going for them is thier under the radar status which will have a lot of teams looking past them and Ed Davis who is going to surprise a lot of people with his NBA ready game and commitment to defense.
The only way I can see them playing .500 ball for the season is if Derozan and Weems manage to translate all thier off court chemistry into on court positivity. While thier ceilings are nowhere near that of Wince and T-Mac, the cohesiveness they have shown in transition is on par to anything the caustic cousins ever possessed and if they can run and gun with Amir trailing and Bargs spotting up for 3 they will be a dangerous team that has the ACC rocking and opposing arenas jaw dropping.
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mo-sales wrote: View PostThat's a good point, they certainly have guys with more experience than those Thunder teams and the effect positive chemistry can have on a team cannot be overstated, but the crunch time lineup in some variation or another will be Jack/Jose, Derozan, Weems/Kleiza, Amir, Bargs. I don't see how this team can or will steal games late in 4th quarter where a majority of games will be decided. Certainly you don't think they will be blowing any teams out, thus in theory most games will be close down the stretch and decided in the last 4 minutes. I actually think Bargs is okay in winning time, he has shots he can get off from various spots on the floor and by dragging his opposing big out of the paint it will open up more offensive rebounding opportunities for Amir.
Almost every team in the league has a more proven go to guy than the raptors, barring Derozan making a miraculous leap I don't think that will change and I don't think Bargs has the mindset to be that guy night in and night out. This also says nothing of the defense and the ability for the raptors to make stops in the 4th. They haven't improved thier defense at the 1 and 5 which were tantamount to the failures of last season and while the defense from the 2,3 and 4 will be markedly improved, it still makes them at best a mediocre defensive team and at worst back near the cellar.
I think a lot of pieces are in place, but they are a year away from being able to be competitive and win and a point guard away from being anything other than a pesky knat for most teams. The two best things they have going for them is thier under the radar status which will have a lot of teams looking past them and Ed Davis who is going to surprise a lot of people with his NBA ready game and commitment to defense.
The only way I can see them playing .500 ball for the season is if Derozan and Weems manage to translate all thier off court chemistry into on court positivity. While thier ceilings are nowhere near that of Wince and T-Mac, the cohesiveness they have shown in transition is on par to anything the caustic cousins ever possessed and if they can run and gun with Amir trailing and Bargs spotting up for 3 they will be a dangerous team that has the ACC rocking and opposing arenas jaw dropping.
If you go and look at studies and I have seen them they prove that the majority of NBA games are won in the 3rd quarter, not the 4th. They show based upon the history of NBA games that a statistically significant number of games, more than one in four, are won by the team that wins the 3rd quarter. They also show that teams that win the 3rd quarter have a higher winning percentage in those games that teams that win another quarter but not the third quarter.
Of course it is possible to win without winning the 3rd quarter, but the numbers show if a team wants to win more often than their opponent in the NBA they need to win the 3rd quarter more than any other quarter including the 4th.
You can Google for it if you want.Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s
Memories some so sweet, indeed
Larger Photo of the avatar
“As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
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Red and White wrote: View Postthat is what this year should be about...whats the point if we win 40 or 45 games? I dont care how many we win, aslong as you can see some magic with the team. If we win 36 or 37, but it was not an exciting season, and no one really made strides, it wasnt a successful season, even if that is higher then expected.
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The Rap's don't have any proven players- outside of Jack, who can consistently create their own shot on the NBA level. How can you start DeRozan- although his handles have improven he relys on the pg, fast break, plus screens to get shots & Kleiza (as per BC ) especially when Kleiza(who's more of a stretch 4 than a 3) can't create off the bounce at the swing spots? The most athletic positions in the NBA and BC projects DeRozan & Kleiza as the Rap's starting wing players next season?
I see TO, as is, winning around 15-25 games- closer to the lower end given that Jay is the head coach ie no accountability & Bargnani is the new Franchise player- it doesn't look too good outside of the YG'z- as is, to me.
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If this year's starting roster includes Bargnani, Kleiza, and Calderon, this team will be giving up points just as bad as last season. Combine that with losing the teams highest scorer / rebounder, and this team is almost certain to lose more games than last season.
Worst case scenario (and maybe long run best case scenario) they are like 8 - 25 by New Year's and Triano is replaced by Carlesimo. Then if MLSE is smart (lol), BC is replaced by a quality basketball person. The new gm needs to trade the TPE from the Bosh deal, Calderon, Reggie and Banks' expiring contracts, for some kind of decent addition to the roster. Hopefully the team wins no more than 20 this year, and the 2011-12 roster sees the addition of a high draft pick, and whatever can be acquired by trade using those other remaining assets. This is the best way to get this franchise moving in the right direction within 12 months.Last edited by madeupid25; Sun Aug 8, 2010, 09:27 PM.
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madeupid25 wrote: View PostIf this year's starting roster includes Bargnani, Kleiza, and Calderon, this team will be giving up points just as bad as last season. Combine that with losing the teams highest scorer / rebounder, and this team is almost certain to lose more games than last season.
Worst case scenario (and maybe long run best case scenario) they are like 8 - 25 by New Year's and Triano is replaced by Carlesimo. Then if MLSE is smart (lol), BC is replaced by a quality basketball person. The new gm needs to trade the TPE from the Bosh deal, Calderon, Reggie and Banks' expiring contracts, for some kind of decent addition to the roster. Hopefully the team wins no more than 20 this year, and the 2011-12 roster sees the addition of a high draft pick, and whatever can be acquired by trade using those other remaining assets. This is the best way to get this franchise moving in the right direction within 12 months.
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madeupid25 wrote: View PostIf this year's starting roster includes Bargnani, Kleiza, and Calderon, this team will be giving up points just as bad as last season. Combine that with losing the teams highest scorer / rebounder, and this team is almost certain to lose more games than last season.
Worst case scenario (and maybe long run best case scenario) they are like 8 - 25 by New Year's and Triano is replaced by Carlesimo. Then if MLSE is smart (lol), BC is replaced by a quality basketball person. The new gm needs to trade the TPE from the Bosh deal, Calderon, Reggie and Banks' expiring contracts, for some kind of decent addition to the roster. Hopefully the team wins no more than 20 this year, and the 2011-12 roster sees the addition of a high draft pick, and whatever can be acquired by trade using those other remaining assets. This is the best way to get this franchise moving in the right direction within 12 months.
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