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Thread: Historical Average By NBA Big Men Set Long Odds For Bargs Becoming A Big Time Scorer

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Default Historical Average By NBA Big Men Set Long Odds For Bargs Becoming A Big Time Scorer

    Query
    --------------
    All players with a career average of 20 ppg or more and 6'10" or taller

    There were 13 players on the list including Bosh and Amar'e. Of the 13 only Moses Malone and Hakeem showed a significant improvement in their ppg for the rest of his career after their fourth season.


    1. Wilt had his best scoring season in his 3rd year in the league when he averaged 50.4 ppg
    2. Kareem had his best scoring season in his 3rd year in the league when averaged 34.8 ppg

    If you can find two better big men scorers in the history of the NBA let us all know. Thanks

    3. Dirk has his best scoring year in his 8th season but it was only 3 ppg more than he scored in his third season. Bargnani averaged 15.4 ppg in his third season, so even if he duplicates Dirk then his best season will only be at around 18.5 ppg.

    4. Pat Ewing -5th but after that he never again came within 4 ppg of his average in his 5th season. He also never again exceeded his ppg in his fourth season by more than 2 ppg.
    5 M. Malone - 8th
    6. Shaq - 8th but it was only .4 ppg more than he averaged in 2nd and 3rd seasons
    7. D. Robinson - 5th but he only came within 5 ppg of his ave in his 5th season one other season. His career average was 2 ppg less than what he averaged in his 4th season
    8. Hakeem - 11th however, in his 5th season his ppg was only about 1.5 above what he averaged in this prior 3 season.
    9. Duncan - 5th but it was only about 3 ppg more than his average over his first four seasons and he never came again has come within 2 ppg of his ppg in his his 5th season
    10. Walt Bellamy - 1st season averaged over 31 ppg and never came near that number again
    11 .Bob Lanier - 2nd season
    12. Amar'e - 3rd season
    13. Bosh - 7th season but only 1.5 ppg more than he averaged in his 3rd and 4th seasons.

    So of the 13 only Mose Malone and Hakeem showed consistent significant improvement in their scoring over the rest of their career as compared to their 4th season even though a number of them did have a single career scoring season after their 4th season

    Doesn't seem like historical odds are in Bargnani's favor in becoming a big time scorer.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l=&order_by=ws

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...abdulka01.html
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    I don't think people care if Bargs scores more than 18 points a game. If he improves his D, he can be an all-star with an average of 18/10. That's all Raps fans can hope for. He's not the next Dirk, we all know that by now.

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    Quote Clipse2001 wrote: View Post
    I don't think people care if Bargs scores more than 18 points a game. If he improves his D, he can be an all-star with an average of 18/10. That's all Raps fans can hope for. He's not the next Dirk, we all know that by now.
    I doubt he will average 10 rebounds in a season.

    My guess is that he could get up to 20 - 7.5 or so, but I don't see much better.

    This season will go a long way toward telling us whether Bargnani will ever become an decent team defender. I have some reservations but I want to see how he works with Davis, Johnson and even Wright and Kleiza. Carlesimo could come up with defensive schemes that compensate for Bargnani's deficiencies in team defense. At least that is what I am hoping for

    I think that DeRozan has a better chance of eventually becoming an all-star than Bargnani does.
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    Buddahfan: What your failing to consider is that Bargs is a late bloomer for the NBA style. He didnt play at an American high school or college, he learned a Euro style of play...However, he is more than talented enough to keep developing into a 20 and 8 guy someday and that will take him to a very respectable level...

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    Raptors Republic Rookie Brain Colangelo's Avatar
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    It's not his scoring that will define this season - it's his help d and rebounding. A number of the players on Buddha's list had their REB #s jump in the their 3rd/4th years. But what set bargs apart from those guys is how few mins he played his 2nd and 3rd years and how his team has gotten worse in that period. He'll have a good year statistically. Bargs will only have improved if hes learned to rebound.

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    Quote RaptorRoo wrote: View Post
    Buddahfan: What your failing to consider is that Bargs is a late bloomer for the NBA style. He didnt play at an American high school or college, he learned a Euro style of play...However, he is more than talented enough to keep developing into a 20 and 8 guy someday and that will take him to a very respectable level...
    We agree I said 20 - 7.5 which rounds to 20 - 8. Nothing wrong with that on offense at all. In fact scoring 20 ppg is very good. If he can get to 8 rpg which I think is a stretch without rounding that will be okay if he can improve his defense enough.

    I just don't think he will ever become the big time scoring go to guy that a number of people are saying he will. 20 - 7 or 8 would be very good if he can improve his team defense to where it becomes respectable.

    I just don't see him ever putting up something like 24 - 10 plus as Bosh did last season. For one reason as I have previously posted, the Raptors just have too many other guys that can score and do it efficiently to have to rely on Bargnani for 24 points a game. If Bargnani could get to the free throw like Bosh then I do think he could some day average close to 23 - 25 points. However, for Bargnani's career he is only averaging 3.3 free throw attempts per 36 minutes. Bosh by contrast has a career average of 7.2 free throws per 36 minutes and last season it was better at 8.4 free throws per 36 minutes.

    That is difference of 5 free throws a game which translates into about 4 points, hence the difference between 20 ppg and 24 ppg.

    If a team is going to have a go to guy it has to be in my opinion a player who can get to the free throw line and make his foul shots. Bargnani just doesn't get to the free throw line enough in my opinion to become a big time go to guy like Bosh.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...bargnan01.html
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    Where's multipaul when you need him? sa sa sa
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    That title is the longest title I've ever read in my life...lol.
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    Doesnt that mean amir will only average 8 ppg for his career

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    Life is chock-full of lies, but the biggest lie is math. That's particularly clear in the discipline of probability, a field of study that's completely and wholly fake. When push comes to shove—when you truly get down to the core essence of existence—there is only one mathematical possibility: Everything is 50-50. Either something will happen, or something will not.

    When you flip a coin what are the odds of it coming up heads? 50-50. Either it will be heads, or it will not. When you roll a six-sided die, what are the odds that you'll roll a three? 50-50. You'll either get a three, or you won't. That's reality. Don't fall into the childish "it's one-in-six" logic trap. That is precisely what all your adolescent authority figures want you to believe. That's how they enslave you. That's how they stole your conviction, and that's why you'll never be happy. Either you will roll a three, or you will not; there are no other alternatives. The future has no memory. Certain things can be impossible, and certain things can be guaranteed—but there is no sliding scale for maybe. Maybe something will happen, or maybe it won't. That's all there is. What are the chances your sister will die from ovarian cancer next summer? 50-50 (either she'll die from ovarian cancer or she won't). What are the chances that your sister will become America's most respected underwater welding specialist? 50-50. It will happen, or it won't. There are two possibilities and both are plausible and unknown. The odds are 2:1. These facts are irrefutable.

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    Quote RaptorRoo wrote: View Post
    Buddahfan: What your failing to consider is that Bargs is a late bloomer for the NBA style. He didnt play at an American high school or college, he learned a Euro style of play...However, he is more than talented enough to keep developing into a 20 and 8 guy someday and that will take him to a very respectable level...
    I agree. In the past, most big men had long college careers before joining the NBA, with high level competition. It is difficult to compare trajectories of players these days who begin their careers at a much younger age and earlier in their physical development than in the past. Beyond that, Bargnani has played second fiddle to Bosh up front since arriving, so his offensive role (and rebounding role) has taken a back seat to Bosh. This year should be very revealing in terms of Bargnani's long term career trajectory. On the one hand, he should be more of a focal point. On the other hand, he will have much more defensive pressure which previously was more concentrated on Bosh. I think it is a bit hard to predict how he will manage his changed role, and how the coaching staff will use him.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Red and White's Avatar
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    Quote RaptorRoo wrote: View Post
    Buddahfan: What your failing to consider is that Bargs is a late bloomer for the NBA style. He didnt play at an American high school or college, he learned a Euro style of play...However, he is more than talented enough to keep developing into a 20 and 8 guy someday and that will take him to a very respectable level...
    Thats very true...he played in rome, and i am from there

    the way you play no matter who or where you are on the court, is to shoot.

    Remember him in his rookie season?
    All he did was shoot, then he was in a slump in his second year when the shot wasnt falling, that taught him even more to go to the basket...
    He never was taught the "nba way" of ball until late in his development. The notion of him being a late bloomer is very possible. If (thats a big "if") he continues to improve in defence, and rebounding, along with getting into the paint, then he will be unstoppable (i use that term very lightly)

    the fact that he can shoot the three is a huge asset to him, but when he learns how to go to the net aswell, and post up, you cant say his numbers wont jump. THe difference between him and all these guys (except dirk) is that he can shoot from range. He can shoot from anywhere inbetween 24 feet to 1 foot (away from the basket) affectively.

    This means that he can
    a) stretch the defence out whenever he wants, giving more space to every one who wants to attack at his will
    b) drive to the basket because he is faster then the other centres in the leauge
    c) (along with the proper improvements) he can post up and do something there
    d)rebound because he will spend more time in the paint

    Now this is alot of speculation on my part, but it isnt that crazy to think he needs a year or two to "get it" defensively.

    Just my thoughts on bargnani, im not a big fan of his, but it really is fun to watch him develop from his rookie year like he is. If he stays how he is, he will be a good centre for the rest of his career, but he has potential and i think he can come to it over another season.

    RAW

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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    In Colangelo's tenure this is really where he gambled and lost. When you draft 1st overall, you really are drafting the cornerstone of a franchise - a game changer if you will. There's LeBron, then there's Howard, etc. Barg's numbers in Europe weren't particularly stellar. However, Colangelo really salivated for him and in my opinion, clouded his judgement. I also realized that Barg's draft in 2006 was particularly weak as well. My question however is when you draft 1st overall, you no longer just draft for potential alone. Don't you ALMOST know what you're getting? As many GMs do, the first pick overall is legitimate talent AND potential. I'm not sure if he was a LEGITIMATE talent at the time of the draft but Colangelo was certainly high on the POTENTIAL. Therein lies a bigger gamble I think. Potential is harder to gauge. Now, I know what people will say, there's tons of decorated athletes coming from colleges and even entering the draft as seniors yet fail to flourish in the NBA. However, drafting on potential seems a bigger gamble than legitimate talent. The drafting of AB7 meant that BC thought he was a legitimate talent AND has oodles of potential.

    PS> I remember most draft boards having Aldridge as the first pick overall. In some cases, Bargs wasn't even in the top 5. I'm just saying.
    Can GMs just draft on potential and ignore numbers? How about the intangibles? Don't they have personality and aptitude assessments (to determine things like leadership qualities, etc.)? Did BC just draft the next Mehmet Okur?
    Yeah we could have got brandon roy...that was rough...

    As much as that draft pick was crazy, the raptors improved by 20 wins that season...pretty brilliant on his (bc's) part, and if you were asked in 2006 how you were improved by 20 games, you would have said bargnani, parker, tj ford (in that order)

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    It's in BC's nature to go for the home run swing. Look at his signings, look at our current roster, how many of our players are we desperately hoping will live up to their "potential". Take it from another perspective, how many of our current players are you hoping won't turn out to be busts? What sure commodities do we have? Jack is the only one that comes to mind, and he's a perennial bench player possibly assuming a starting role when the season starts. That's my problem with potential. That and I'm not much of a gambler.

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    Quote Red and White wrote: View Post
    Yeah we could have got brandon roy...that was rough...

    As much as that draft pick was crazy, the raptors improved by 20 wins that season...pretty brilliant on his (bc's) part, and if you were asked in 2006 how you were improved by 20 games, you would have said bargnani, parker, tj ford (in that order)
    Sorry, I pulled out my post as it was full of Monday morning GM crap. Most draft boards did have AB7 as number one. Only one (SI.com) had Lamarcus Aldridge at # 1. Here's the source. I think it's safe to assume that if you draft (high) a big man in a guard / speed oriented NBA, it's difficult for that player to carry the team to higher levels. Bosh couldn't do it, Garnett couldn't, Nowitzki couldn't. Perhaps back in the day when Chamberlain and Jabbar was around, the game was different.

    No one expected Brandon Roy - only Portland. Here's the source.
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    RAW: Bargs would of won rookie of the year over Roy had it not been for he's appendix surgery where he missed 6 weeks...plus, Roy was on a bad Portland team so he was getting a lot of mins to pad his stats,we were winning the Atlantic and planning on going deep in the playoffs and that meant limited mins for the rookie...

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    Quote Clipse2001 wrote: View Post
    I don't think people care if Bargs scores more than 18 points a game. If he improves his D, he can be an all-star with an average of 18/10. That's all Raps fans can hope for. He's not the next Dirk, we all know that by now.
    If Bargnani averages 10 rpg and becomes a good defensive player, he will become....a completely different player. I'm constantly amazed at how little respect some fans seem to have for the skill involved in rebounding. Amir Johnson has about as much chance of averaging 20 ppg as Bargnani does of averaging 10 rpg. Last year, 16 players averaged over 20 ppg, but only 9 players averaged over 10 rpg.

    Michael Beasley has a better chance of averaging double digit rebounds than Bargnani. Per 36 mpg, Beasley, in only his second season and playing alongside Wade, averaged more points, rebounds, free throws, assists and steals than Bargnani in his fourth season.

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    Quote RaptorRoo wrote: View Post
    RAW: Bargs would of won rookie of the year over Roy had it not been for he's appendix surgery where he missed 6 weeks...plus, Roy was on a bad Portland team so he was getting a lot of mins to pad his stats,we were winning the Atlantic and planning on going deep in the playoffs and that meant limited mins for the rookie...
    I'm sorry, did you actually watch that season? Bargnani was half decent, but no where near Roy's level. I'm sorry, but if you think Bargnani could have won the Rookie of the Year Award over Roy had Bargnani played more minutes, then I think you desperately need to watch more Portland games. Roy was, and is a far, far better player than Bargnani ever was or will be. Period.

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    Default I respectfully disagree

    Out of your list of people could you possibly name one of whom was not the number one scoring option in the post for the majority of their career? The case against Bargnani should more practically be if he can now handle being a primary scoring option for an entire season. Coming from a team first background, he rightfully chose his scoring spots conservatively and let the teams primary scoring option be Bosh. Who at this point and time is a better player. Can bargnani be better without bosh?

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    If Bargnani works hard on his game, and improves his traditional big man skills he will continue to improve on the stat sheet. If DeRozan becomes an all-star level talent and learns to create for himself and others on a high level I feel that will really help Bargnani far more than playing with Bosh. Bosh took the defensive heat off Bargnani but he didn't create for Bargnani. DeRozan may be able to take off the heat and hit the big fella in good places on the court for easier baskets. Stats tell stories, they don't determine fates.

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