Toronto Raptors: Five Bold Predictions For The Team's 2010 Season

[Pizzaman]

1. Scoring - Bosh missed 12 games during the season and played less than three minutes in the one game in April that he got hurt in

Raptors PPG Comparison
===============
Season------------104.1
Without Bosh------103.8
With Bosh---------104.2
-----------------------------
Games With Bosh +.4 PPG
=======================

So last season when the Raptors entire offense was built around Bosh they only scored .4 of point less per game in the 13 games that he effectively didn't play in vs 69 that he did.

Additions this season include

Kleiza who will average more ppg than Turk's 11.3
Barbosa and J. Wright - should average at least 12 ppg vs Wright and Belinelli combined 13.6
Anderson should average at least Rasho's 3.9 per game

So that group of new players combined should average about the same number of ppg give or take a point or two per game as the players that they replaced

With the new guys being at least as productive as the guys that they replaced and with the 10-11 offense being designed around the them and the players remaining and not Bosh the 10-11 team should be able to score at least as many ppg as the 09-10 team did when Bosh played.

As far as the the three veterans that have left (I don't consider Belinelli a veteran any more than Johnson is a veteran)

Turk - He was useless and Kleiza has four seasons of NBA experience plus one season of very level Euro League experience. So I don't see much of a loss in experience replacing Turk with Kleiza. When the Raptors get to the playoffs in Apr 11? then we can revisit the Turk vs Kleiza experience factor. In the meantime the level of play and intensity of play in 10-11 from Kleiza will most likely exceed what Turk did in 09-10

Rasho - Rasho had a couple of nice games offensively but other than that and being a nice guy he was useless.

Wright - He was a waste and contributed a lot more negative stuff than positive stuff

As far as Bosh's experience goes - No doubt that Davis and Johnson don't have anywhere near his NBA experience so there will be a learning curve there. However, I think that the learning curve will be primarily against the better bigs in the NBA.

I do think that the degree of success that the Raptors achieve in 10-11 will depend primarily on three huge variables.

1. Can Johnson stay on the court for at least 25 mpg and hopefully 30 mpg?
2. How much will DeRozan's all around game improve in 10-11 vs 09-10?
3. How long will it take Davis to become an effective NBA big?

If all three of those things go well then the Raptors should have a very competitive team especially at home where their youthful running style of play will feed more off of the home fans.

The Raptors should struggle on the road in 10-11 especially against playoff teams. If they can win more than handful of road games against teams that wind up in the playoffs in 10-11 then overall for all 82 games they should exceed my current preliminary expectations for the 10-11 regular season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.html

Exactly what I thought I was saying except you may have said it even better. Most of the guys we lost were pretty much useless, and I forgot about Wright because he was not worth mentioning...by far he is the one I despised the most. I hated whenever he got on the floor and thought he was a saviour looking off better shooters to look for his own, and playing shitty defense, as well as having a big negative yap. I do not believe this team is any worse than last years team, and infact it should be better. That said the wins will be more difficult because the east has improved, but the team will be better both ends of the floor and without Bosh we will also experience a huge leap forward in the play of DeRozan, Amir, Bargs and Weems for sure, which will improve our chances for 2011. The addition of Kleiza and Barbosa is way more than what we lost, and I've already said that I think Bosh's numbers will get covered.
As to who the go to guy is when crunch time comes I don't think we lost any go to guys including Bosh. Bargnani will see plenty of doubles when he posts up so I have no fear of what Tim says.

[Nick]

Actually, according to the history of the league. This isn't revolutionary thinking, here. It's a pretty well known fact. Is this something you are really debating?



The fact is that, at this point, the Raptors don't seem to have someone who you can give the ball to in pressure situations and they will likely either get a basket or get to the line. Is there someone on the team I missed? The only real players that could do it last season were Bosh and Turkolgu, and they're now gone. It could be that someone might step into that role, but at this point they DON'T have a goto guy.


Okay, again with the insults. Why? And when debating someone's intelligence, maybe don't say "your" when you mean "you're". It kind of takes the wind out of your argument.

My statement about turning off your brain was meant to relate to the fact that some around here are incredibly insulted if you don't look at the team through rose coloured glasses. I don't think the team will be very good next season, and have been insulted for this and called pessimistic. I'm not. I'm just looking at the team objectively.

As for the the article, it clearly states in it's prediction the team will be a playoff team "...if all of the predictions before this one come true, then there is a good chance that this one comes true as well." Not much room for debate there, is there.

Yes, the fact that you say the Raptors are a worse team because they lost their 3 top players is something I am definately willing to debatr. Rashowas a great guy to have on the bench and a pretty good defender not to mention a pretty good scorer. Fact is that he was rarely used, so how is he going to be missed? Turk, your telling me he's hard to replace? CB4, I'm personally going to miss him, but I don't think his departure is going to be a tremendous downfall to this team. The Raps problem has never been offence, I think his numbers are easily going to be covered by the current team, and in fact I believe the Raps will be a better defensive team without him.. Hell it couldn't get worse. The fact that your questioning if I'm debating this just shows me your delusional arrogance.

"The fact is that the Raptors don't have anybody to give the ball to in pressure situations." Are you kidding me? HOW DO YOU KNOW!! The season hasn't started yet, different guys have different roles now, how do you know who is going to rise up? You have no idea!!

Debating intelligence? Making fun of my grammar? Wow, you are such a loser.

As for your last paragraph. No, you said that the writer was insinuating that if the Raps did the 5 points that were listed, then the Raps would be a playoff team. In no way was the writer saying this. I'm not ever sure what the hell your talking about predictions, I never said anything about predictions. Nice try though!

[Tim W.]

Yes, the fact that you say the Raptors are a worse team because they lost their 3 top players is something I am definately willing to debatr. Rashowas a great guy to have on the bench and a pretty good defender not to mention a pretty good scorer. Fact is that he was rarely used, so how is he going to be missed? Turk, your telling me he's hard to replace? CB4, I'm personally going to miss him, but I don't think his departure is going to be a tremendous downfall to this team. The Raps problem has never been offence, I think his numbers are easily going to be covered by the current team, and in fact I believe the Raps will be a better defensive team without him.. Hell it couldn't get worse. The fact that your questioning if I'm debating this just shows me your delusional arrogance.

"The fact is that the Raptors don't have anybody to give the ball to in pressure situations." Are you kidding me? HOW DO YOU KNOW!! The season hasn't started yet, different guys have different roles now, how do you know who is going to rise up? You have no idea!!

Debating intelligence? Making fun of my grammar? Wow, you are such a loser.

As for your last paragraph. No, you said that the writer was insinuating that if the Raps did the 5 points that were listed, then the Raps would be a playoff team. In no way was the writer saying this. I'm not ever sure what the hell your talking about predictions, I never said anything about predictions. Nice try though!

I never said the Raptors lost their top three players. I said they lost three of their most veteran players.

As I stated, the Raptors don't have anyone that has been in the position, or that has the type of game, to be able to be given the ball in pressure situations. I said that may change, and I also said it would probably end up being Barbosa. And if you don't know, why are you assuming someone will?

I was not actually debating intelligence. You were. You brought it up. I didn't. And I never once resorted to name calling. You did.

This was the quote from the writer...

...if all of the predictions before this one come true, then there is a good chance that this one comes true as well.

And this was my exact quote...

The Raptors will make the playoffs. Well, the logic of this prediction is incredibly flawed. Apparently if the Raptors aren't one of the 5 bottom teams, Amir averages a double double, DeMar wins the dunk contest and Bargnani makes the All-Star team, the Raptors should make the playoffs. Huh? How does that makes sense?

It's a simple if-then scenario. I'm not sure why you're so offended by my opinion of the article, anyway. Are you the writer?

[Buddahfan]

As I stated, the Raptors don't have anyone that has been in the position, or that has the type of game, to be able to be given the ball in pressure situations. I said that may change, and I also said it would probably end up being Barbosa. And if you don't know, why are you assuming someone will?

1. I am not so sure that that will be the case visa via Bosh. I don't recall Bosh's scoring a lot of points in the 4th quarter of games last season leading to too many Raptors wins.

2. The 3rd quarter is the most important quarter in a game. Teams that win the 3rd quarter have a greater history of winning the game than teams that win any of the other three quarters. The Raptors were terrible too often out of the gate in the 3rd quarter. I expect that they will be a lot better this year if Johnson starts. If Davis starts we will just have to wait and see how that works out.

The only two areas that I think the Raptors may suffer with Bosh's departure are

1. Defensive rebounding
2. Free throw attempts and makes

No doubt that these are very important. How badly they will miss Bosh in those two areas however remains to be seen

[Nick]

I never said the Raptors lost their top three players. I said they lost three of their most veteran players.

As I stated, the Raptors don't have anyone that has been in the position, or that has the type of game, to be able to be given the ball in pressure situations. I said that may change, and I also said it would probably end up being Barbosa. And if you don't know, why are you assuming someone will?

I was not actually debating intelligence. You were. You brought it up. I didn't. And I never once resorted to name calling. You did.

This was the quote from the writer...


And this was my exact quote...


It's a simple if-then scenario. I'm not sure why you're so offended by my opinion of the article, anyway. Are you the writer?

I just have a different style of writing, thats all.

[Tim W.]

I just have a different style of writing, thats all.

Sorry? I'm not sure what that has to do with anything from my post. A different writing style in reference to what, exactly?

[JoePanini]

1. I am not so sure that that will be the case visa via Bosh. I don't recall Bosh's scoring a lot of points in the 4th quarter of games last season leading to too many Raptors wins.

2. The 3rd quarter is the most important quarter in a game. Teams that win the 3rd quarter have a greater history of winning the game than teams that win any of the other three quarters. The Raptors were terrible too often out of the gate in the 3rd quarter. I expect that they will be a lot better this year if Johnson starts. If Davis starts we will just have to wait and see how that works out.

The only two areas that I think the Raptors may suffer with Bosh's departure are

1. Defensive rebounding
2. Free throw attempts and makes

No doubt that these are very important. How badly they will miss Bosh in those two areas however remains to be seen

Kleiza. Number 1, check. Number 2, well Kleiza can probably go to the line half the times Bosh did...

[Buddahfan]

Kleiza. Number 1, check. Number 2, well Kleiza can probably go to the line half the times Bosh did...

Defensive Rebounds
---------------------

Kleiza's NBA defensive rebounding rate is almost exactly what Turkoglu's was last season

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...turkohe01.html


Johnson and Davis might be able to pick up some of Bosh's lost defensive rebounds

Per 36 min in 09-10

Bosh------7.9
Johnson---6.0
Davis------8.6 last season at NC
Davis------5.7 LVSL
Anderson---6.2
Roshe------4.5
Bargnani---5.0

Assuming, yes I know, that Davis's defensive rebounding rate in 10-11 is the same as Johnson's was in 09-10 then we are probably looking a 2 -3 defensive rebounds per game shortfall in 10-11 due to Bosh's departure unless Johnson can step up his defensive rebounding rate in 10-11 vs 09-10. It might be possible that he could add maybe one rebound per 36 minutes to his rate.

Andersen's presence might pick up maybe .5 def rebound per game

My guess is that the Raptors will lose maybe 1.5 to 2.0 defensive rebounds per game from Bosh's departure before adjusting for opposing teams possibly shooting a lower percentage in 10-11 then in 09-10 and the pace of the game being faster in 10-11 then it was in 09-10.

The Raptors might be able to make up the rest of the shortfall by

1. Improved team rebounding
2. using a man and/or a zone press to force more turnovers than they did last season.


Free Throws per 36 minutes
---------------------------
Bosh--------8.4
Turk--------3.1
Kleiza-------4.0 Career with Denver
Johnson-----3.7
Davis-------8.7 last season with NC
Davis-------6.9 LVSL
DeRozan----4.2

The problem with Davis FT's is that he makes only about 60% vs Bosh 80%

I don't see how the Raptors will make up Bosh 6.7 or so FT's made per game.

Even if Davis took all of Bosh's minutes, which he won't we could still be looking at a shortfall of about 1.5 free throws per game up front 6.7 - (60% x 7) = 2.5 - 1 (Kleiza's pickup over Hedo) =1.5.

My guess that up front;i.e. the #3, #4 and #5 the Raptors will lose about 3.0 made free throws per game from Bosh's departure. How much if any of that can be made up in the backup I don't know, maybe 1 or so a game at the most.




Ed Davis

Ed Davis LVSL

[JoePanini]

Defensive Rebounds
---------------------

Kleiza's NBA defensive rebounding rate is almost exactly what Turkoglu's was last season

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...turkohe01.html


Johnson and Davis might be able to pick up some of Bosh's lost defensive rebounds

Per 36 min in 09-10

Bosh------7.9
Johnson---6.0
Davis------8.6 last season at NC
Davis------5.7 LVSL
Anderson---6.2
Roshe------4.5
Bargnani---5.0

Assuming, yes I know, that Davis's defensive rebounding rate in 10-11 is the same as Johnson's was in 09-10 then we are probably looking a 2 -3 defensive rebounds per game shortfall in 10-11 due to Bosh's departure unless Johnson can step up his defensive rebounding rate in 10-11 vs 09-10. It might be possible that he could add maybe one rebound per 36 minutes to his rate.

Andersen's presence might pick up maybe .5 def rebound per game

My guess is that the Raptors will lose maybe 1.5 to 2.0 defensive rebounds per game from Bosh's departure before adjusting for opposing teams possibly shooting a lower percentage in 10-11 then in 09-10 and the pace of the game being faster in 10-11 then it was in 09-10.

The Raptors might be able to make up the rest of the shortfall by

1. Improved team rebounding
2. using a man and/or a zone press to force more turnovers than they did last season.


Free Throws per 36 minutes
---------------------------
Bosh--------8.4
Turk--------3.1
Kleiza-------4.0 Career with Denver
Johnson-----3.7
Davis-------8.7 last season with NC
Davis-------6.9 LVSL
DeRozan----4.2

The problem with Davis FT's is that he makes only about 60% vs Bosh 80%

I don't see how the Raptors will make up Bosh 6.7 or so FT's made per game.

Even if Davis took all of Bosh's minutes, which he won't we could still be looking at a shortfall of about 1.5 free throws per game up front 6.7 - (60% x 7) = 2.5 - 1 (Kleiza's pickup over Hedo) =1.5.

My guess that up front;i.e. the #3, #4 and #5 the Raptors will lose about 3.0 made free throws per game from Bosh's departure. How much if any of that can be made up in the backup I don't know, maybe 1 or so a game at the most.




Ed Davis

Ed Davis LVSL

Wow, great stats there. How do you find all of this? LOL.

I think Kleiza can get about 5 defensive rebounds a game, I also think he can get to the line about 5 times a game...

[m5racer]

I can see all this happening also. Big deal so bosh is gone. Ok so we lose 20-10 which means the team of 10 guys will have to absorb that while getting way more play time. Thats not that far fetched.

Also we got rid of turk so that instantly makes us better cause lets fase it he was a sack of shit last year and did nothing to help this team

Lastly no one talks about barbosa. The guy who until last year had all 10+ ppg seasons. Like the guy was benched hard last year and with 17 min of play still managed 9ppg. This guy will be a monster and i easily see him averaging at least 15ppg with 3 Assists and a seal or two a gane. This Guy is i. A CONTRACT YEAR people and will be tlgetting tons of playtime this year. He is going to be massive and people dont realize it