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Thread: A simple way to compare offensive effectiveness

  1. #1
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    Default A simple way to compare offensive effectiveness

    I posted this in the FT/FG blog article and wanted to get folks opinions on this.

    Whenever I want to make a quick & dirty offensive comparison, I use a ridiculously simple “adjustment” of ORtg to take into account for Usage. It’s really, really simple. Here’s how it goes….

    The idea behind usage is that if all scorers were equal, then each of the 5 players on the court would share 20% of the offensive scoring load. But players are not created equal. Lebron James has larger offensive arsenal than Jamario Moon, so Lebron bears 30% of the load, while Jamario bears only 10%. If Jamario tried to carry even his fair share (20%), his efficiency (ORtg) would plummet exponentially and kill his team’s chances of winning. Bring back memories, Rap fans?

    So what I do is adjust the ORtg to account for if the player is over or under 20% (his fair share). So Lebron @ 30% is carrying 30/20 = 1.5 times the load. Then, I multiply his ORtg x 1.5 to get the adjusted ORtg. So, he is really like one and a half players at his efficiency, which is incredible. (side note: this really helps a team out because it allows you to put pure defensive specialists out there, but not allow them to stink it up offensively).

    So, as you can see below, I calculated the adjusted ORtg for every Raptor who played more than 1000 mins. Andrea has a MUCH higher adj. ORtg than Amir. This is a huge gap. But also notice, there is also a huge gap between Andrea and Chris Bosh – there’s no doubt that Bosh really carried the Raps over the last few years. Andrea is far, far away from being a franchise scorer. So cover your eyes folks, it’s going to be a frustrating year offensively. Better hope the defense picks up.


    Player G MP USG% ORtg adj. ORtg
    ================================================== ========
    Chris Bosh 70 2526 28.7 117 168
    Andrea Bargnani 80 2799 22.3 108 120
    Jarrett Jack 82 2243 19.1 116 111
    Marco Belinelli 66 1121 20.1 106 107
    Jose Calderon 68 1817 17.9 119 107
    DeMar DeRozan 77 1664 18.1 110 100
    Hedo Turkoglu 74 2272 18.1 109 99
    Sonny Weems 69 1368 18.4 104 96
    Amir Johnson 82 1453 14.5 124 90
    Antoine Wright 67 1392 16.1 100 81

    Anyways, I've found that it works quite well for my purposes. Whatcha think?

  2. #2
    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    So according to your theory

    What a player loses because of inefficiency they can make for with volume.

    So if a player who is not effecient on offense increases their share of the team's offense the team will get better.

    Sure it will.
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    So according to your theory

    What a player loses because of inefficiency they can make for with volume.

    So if a player who is not effecient on offense increases their share of the team's offense the team will get better.

    Sure it will.
    C'mon Buddah. You are twisting things here because you don't like what this says about Amir's offensive game at this stage. I love Amir, but he is limited. Of course, highly inefficient chuckers will hurt your team at some point - absolutely agree on that. That's not really the question to ask here. The question to ask is: which players on your roster have the ability to increase their usage with less drop off in efficiency? Finding the answer to that is what will help your team.

    At the same time, highly efficient, low usage guys can only help you to a limited extent too. Dean Oliver's work shows that every player is more efficient when his usage goes down. So, you can't have 5 Amir's on the court at 15% usage, because that's only 5x15=75% usage, and you need 100% and somebody's gotta take the shot. When one of those Amirs increases his usage to > 20% his efficiency will plummet. There's a reason why offensive players who can score in multiple ways and create their own offense are highly valued. As a Doug Collins said, "...people have no idea how difficult is to even get off a shot against NBA defenders." Scoring the ball is another level. Scoring efficiently is another level again. Scoring efficiently while carrying a huge load is the most difficult of all, because at that point the defense is basically focussed on you.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie pistol pete's Avatar
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    There's something strange here. Belinelli at 4, ahead of all the YGZ. I never have bought all this YGZ summer hype, but this scares me a bit.

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    What do I think? Rubbish. I am with Buddha on this one.

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    Quote Maleko wrote: View Post
    What do I think? Rubbish. I am with Buddha on this one.
    It's pretty clear that Buddah and others don't really understand what USG% means. Let me provide kind of a rough guideline. In each of the categories below, assume that the player has a PPP (points per possession) effiency or offensive rating of 110 or higher, and the player is a starter who plays at least 30 minutes per game. Even with the exact same efficiency, the value of the player on offense can be dramatically different, depending on USG%:


    15% USG player
    - The other team barely guards you. Your offensive game is mostly tip-ins, alley-oops, put-backs, dunks, getting fouled on put-backs. Few, if any plays are run for you. If you're a perimeter player, you're probably a defensive specialist who gets un-guarded open 3's from the corner.
    - E.G. Tyson Chandler, Amir Johnson, Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Bruce Bowen

    20% USG player
    - You are a decent scorer. The other team respects your offensive game and you likely have a decent defender on you, but single coverage. Some plays are run for you.
    - You are possibly the 2nd option on your team.
    E.G. Andrea Bargnani (almost)

    25% USG player
    - You are probably your team's 1st option. You are likely seeing double-teams on a regular basis. Probably an all-star at some point in your career. E.G. Bosh

    30% USG player
    - You are an MVP candidate (Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Jordan). The entire league tries to figure out ways to stop you.

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