I posted this in the FT/FG blog article and wanted to get folks opinions on this.
Whenever I want to make a quick & dirty offensive comparison, I use a ridiculously simple “adjustment” of ORtg to take into account for Usage. It’s really, really simple. Here’s how it goes….
The idea behind usage is that if all scorers were equal, then each of the 5 players on the court would share 20% of the offensive scoring load. But players are not created equal. Lebron James has larger offensive arsenal than Jamario Moon, so Lebron bears 30% of the load, while Jamario bears only 10%. If Jamario tried to carry even his fair share (20%), his efficiency (ORtg) would plummet exponentially and kill his team’s chances of winning. Bring back memories, Rap fans?
So what I do is adjust the ORtg to account for if the player is over or under 20% (his fair share). So Lebron @ 30% is carrying 30/20 = 1.5 times the load. Then, I multiply his ORtg x 1.5 to get the adjusted ORtg. So, he is really like one and a half players at his efficiency, which is incredible. (side note: this really helps a team out because it allows you to put pure defensive specialists out there, but not allow them to stink it up offensively).
So, as you can see below, I calculated the adjusted ORtg for every Raptor who played more than 1000 mins. Andrea has a MUCH higher adj. ORtg than Amir. This is a huge gap. But also notice, there is also a huge gap between Andrea and Chris Bosh – there’s no doubt that Bosh really carried the Raps over the last few years. Andrea is far, far away from being a franchise scorer. So cover your eyes folks, it’s going to be a frustrating year offensively. Better hope the defense picks up.
Player G MP USG% ORtg adj. ORtg
Chris Bosh 70 2526 28.7 117 168
Andrea Bargnani 80 2799 22.3 108 120
Jarrett Jack 82 2243 19.1 116 111
Marco Belinelli 66 1121 20.1 106 107
Jose Calderon 68 1817 17.9 119 107
DeMar DeRozan 77 1664 18.1 110 100
Hedo Turkoglu 74 2272 18.1 109 99
Sonny Weems 69 1368 18.4 104 96
Amir Johnson 82 1453 14.5 124 90
Antoine Wright 67 1392 16.1 100 81
Anyways, I've found that it works quite well for my purposes. Whatcha think?