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Thread: High hopes for Amir's fantasy potential (and overall play)

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    Default High hopes for Amir's fantasy potential (and overall play)

    "Let’s see – Chris Bosh is gone, which means the Raptors are losing a ton of rebounds per game. Playing center is Andrea Bargnani, who despite a nice shooting touch is one of the worst rebounders in the game. Logic tells us that somebody has to clean up the glass, and says that man should be the up-and-coming Johnson, presuming he can stay on the floor.

    When it comes to basketball metrics, the former second-round pick owns most of them. Take PER for example (not perfect, but helpful), and you find Johnson in the company of Chris Kaman, Kevin Martin, Jason Terry, Vince Carter and other established NBA players. His rebound rate is among the best in the league and there is no doubt that he can produce in limited minutes, pulling down almost five boards in under 18 minutes per game. Johnson even averaged 13.4 points on over 70% shooting in eight April games, further demonstrating his potential to be a high-efficiency player in the NBA.

    The question marks here are Amir’s propensity to foul himself out of games and his all-around offensive skill. Scoring on put-backs and dunks is nice, but it remains to be seen whether Johnson can create for himself against opposing starters, especially without Bosh drawing double-teams. Finally, rookie Ed Davis could have something to say about all this, but with a shiny new contract, Johnson can expect as many minutes as he can handle from the Raptors."

    http://blog.rivalspot.com/post/2010/...za-Rising.aspx

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    Quote Dan wrote: View Post
    "Let’s see – Chris Bosh is gone, which means the Raptors are losing a ton of rebounds per game. Playing center is Andrea Bargnani, who despite a nice shooting touch is one of the worst rebounders in the game. Logic tells us that somebody has to clean up the glass, and says that man should be the up-and-coming Johnson, presuming he can stay on the floor.

    When it comes to basketball metrics, the former second-round pick owns most of them. Take PER for example (not perfect, but helpful), and you find Johnson in the company of Chris Kaman, Kevin Martin, Jason Terry, Vince Carter and other established NBA players. His rebound rate is among the best in the league and there is no doubt that he can produce in limited minutes, pulling down almost five boards in under 18 minutes per game. Johnson even averaged 13.4 points on over 70% shooting in eight April games, further demonstrating his potential to be a high-efficiency player in the NBA.

    The question marks here are Amir’s propensity to foul himself out of games and his all-around offensive skill. Scoring on put-backs and dunks is nice, but it remains to be seen whether Johnson can create for himself against opposing starters, especially without Bosh drawing double-teams. Finally, rookie Ed Davis could have something to say about all this, but with a shiny new contract, Johnson can expect as many minutes as he can handle from the Raptors."

    http://blog.rivalspot.com/post/2010/...za-Rising.aspx
    I'm a big Amir supporter and watch his game closely. The thing I worry about is that he doesn't decrease his aggressiveness in order to reduce fouling so he can stay in games. I noticed a bit of this at the end of the season. From a fantasy point of view, I guess it could translate to more points, but less rebounds per 36 min.

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    How do you think Davis and Bargnani will affect him? Personally I agree with the article - it's really up to Amir... if he can stay on the floor he'll produce, considering Bargs doesn't grab enough boards to matter and the other forwards/big men aren't proven.

    I doubt he'll be quite as efficient though - developing the midrange jumper and one go-to move is key.

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    Fouls are the killer with Amir in the fantasy world. If you play in a league without fouls he's going to be golden. Either way, he's set for a step up in stats.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Fouls are the killer with Amir in the fantasy world. If you play in a league without fouls he's going to be golden. Either way, he's set for a step up in stats.
    Apollo,

    While my leagues have never actually counted fouls as a negative category, Amir's fouling can still hurt him in the game by keeping him off the court. I wonder how many times he'll start and be pinned to the bench with 2 fouls after 4 minutes...

    The other point I liked dealt with level of competition. It remains to be seen whether Johnson can actually score against elite competition (read: first-string players), especially in one-on-one situations. We've mostly seen him face subs and starters from the worst teams in the league (late last season when he was starting).

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    ...which makes me wonder if he'll be as efficient (probably not) when he's not just cleaning up misses and finishing off plays from others.

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    Just a thought or two

    1. At this point in time I would not take Amir in fantasy basketball. A lot of what he brings positively to the Raptors when he is on the court does not translate into winning fantasy numbers unless you include plus/minus in your fantasy stats and give it a disproportionately high value.

    2. Amir has yet to show over an extended number of games that he can average over 18 mpg. He may indeed do that one day and even in 10-11 but I for one am not betting on it. My argument is that he deserves the chance as a starter to see what he can do especially now that he has a developing offense.

    If can stay on the court great. If not then back to the bench as a bench rotation player. However, given the Raptors current roster he has earned a chance to try and see what will happen if he starts.

    3. He can create his own shot. The article is wrong when it says that he can't, Examples

    A. The act of properly rolling to the basket to get into a position to catch a pass in a position where you can then shoot is creating your own shot. It is just not creating it off of the dribble. Even the player who creates his own shot off of the dribble has to have the ball passed to him at some time unless he is the point guard who brings the ball up the court.

    B. Amir showed last season that he can beat his man off of the dribble with either hand going either to his right or left. Yes it is limited but he did do it last season and with all those "high school" dribbling exercises that he is practicing he should continue to improve in that area.

    C. Scoring off of run-outs. You have to be able to get down the floor quick enough to be in the proper position to catch the pass on a run-out play in order to score. Amir can do this. In the process he is creating the shot by putting himself in position to score on the play.

    It has seemed to me for a long time that the term "creating your own shot" has become a biased term that favors the player who can dribble and negates the ability to get open to catch a pass and then score off of the pass. In both situations the shooter is creating their own shot; i.e. one by dribbling to a position from which they can shoot and the other by getting to a position on the court where he can catch a pass and then shoot without much if any dribbling.

    Yes after you get to the proper place on the court you still need someone to pass the ball to you. However, even at the college level yet alone the NBA level if a player gets to the proper place on the court to receive a pass and then shoot, the ball can be passed to him without much difficulty. That is because by definition you are not getting to the proper position to shoot if someone can not easily pass the ball to you.
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    Quote Dan wrote: View Post
    Apollo,

    While my leagues have never actually counted fouls as a negative category, Amir's fouling can still hurt him in the game by keeping him off the court. I wonder how many times he'll start and be pinned to the bench with 2 fouls after 4 minutes...

    The other point I liked dealt with level of competition. It remains to be seen whether Johnson can actually score against elite competition (read: first-string players), especially in one-on-one situations. We've mostly seen him face subs and starters from the worst teams in the league (late last season when he was starting).
    Dan,

    Of course fouling can take him off the court but in general he's set for much more PT than last season. It's not like we're talking about a player who has had consistent PT for many years and suddenly developed fouling problems. We're talking about a guy who is finally going to get consistent opportunities and has always had fouling problems. The implications of the fouls on his other stats is irrelevant in terms of it's detriment because you're not going to see a drop in his numbers. Anyone drafting him should already know a.) he has problems not getting into foul trouble and b.) he's set for increased PT. a.) should have been accepted and considered before ever valuing him based on b.) and then ranking him on your draft board.

    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    1. At this point in time I would not take Amir in fantasy basketball. A lot of what he brings positively to the Raptors when he is on the court does not translate into winning fantasy numbers unless you include plus/minus in your fantasy stats and give it a disproportionately high value.
    So in a standard league that drafts anywhere from 120-200 players you wouldn't take him? I would. As long as he gets consistent PT of 25 minutes a game his stat line will help any team in 12 team leagues.
    Last edited by Apollo; Wed Sep 15th, 2010 at 02:08 PM.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Dan,

    Of course fouling can take him off the court but in general he's set for much more PT than last season. It's not like we're talking about a player who has had consistent PT for many years and suddenly developed fouling problems. We're talking about a guy who is finally going to get consistent opportunities and has always had fouling problems. The implications of the fouls on his other stats is irrelevant in terms of it's detriment because you're not going to see a drop in his numbers. Anyone drafting him should already know a.) he has problems not getting into foul trouble and b.) he's set for increased PT. a.) should have been accepted and considered before ever valuing him based on b.) and then ranking him on your draft board.
    Apollo,

    Of course, I understand that. I was more wondering how much people think he'll be able to play (18 mins per game? 30 mins per game?) and whether or not people think he can be as efficient as before (I don't.). What line are you expecting from Amir this season?

    Buddahfan,

    I would draft him in all leagues, just not very high. He is certainly going to put up enough stats to be fantasy relevant (though it remains to be seen how much).

    As far as your thoughts on "creating your own shot," I should have specified that I meant in the half-court game as a primary scorer. In other words, if you find the ball in your hands with 5-7 seconds on the shot clock, can you make something happen? This will happen to Amir (and the rest of the Raptors) plenty this season without Bosh to bail them out late in the clock, and I think plenty of guys (Demar, Sonny, Amir) will struggle to create off broken plays. This is why I believe Amir's shooting efficiency will drop.

    Anyway, don't confuse pointing out a player's flaw with attacking them. I really like Amir but go back and forth on how I believe he'll fare. The whole fantasy angle just comes from this article, which pretty much sums up my beliefs on Johnson.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Dan,

    Of course fouling can take him off the court but in general he's set for much more PT than last season. It's not like we're talking about a player who has had consistent PT for many years and suddenly developed fouling problems. We're talking about a guy who is finally going to get consistent opportunities and has always had fouling problems. The implications of the fouls on his other stats is irrelevant in terms of it's detriment because you're not going to see a drop in his numbers. Anyone drafting him should already know a.) he has problems not getting into foul trouble and b.) he's set for increased PT. a.) should have been accepted and considered before ever valuing him based on b.) and then ranking him on your draft board.



    So in a standard league that drafts anywhere from 120-200 players you wouldn't take him? I would. As long as he gets consistent PT of 25 minutes a game his stat line will help any team in 12 team leagues.
    Sorry my bad.

    I should have clarified. "I would not at this time take him as a starter for any fantasy team"
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    Quote Dan wrote: View Post
    Apollo,

    Of course, I understand that. I was more wondering how much people think he'll be able to play (18 mins per game? 30 mins per game?) and whether or not people think he can be as efficient as before (I don't.). What line are you expecting from Amir this season?

    Buddahfan,

    I would draft him in all leagues, just not very high. He is certainly going to put up enough stats to be fantasy relevant (though it remains to be seen how much).

    As far as your thoughts on "creating your own shot," I should have specified that I meant in the half-court game as a primary scorer. In other words, if you find the ball in your hands with 5-7 seconds on the shot clock, can you make something happen? This will happen to Amir (and the rest of the Raptors) plenty this season without Bosh to bail them out late in the clock, and I think plenty of guys (Demar, Sonny, Amir) will struggle to create off broken plays. This is why I believe Amir's shooting efficiency will drop.

    Anyway, don't confuse pointing out a player's flaw with attacking them. I really like Amir but go back and forth on how I believe he'll fare. The whole fantasy angle just comes from this article, which pretty much sums up my beliefs on Johnson.
    Bosh took 38% of his shots in crunch time and shot 46% with 48% being assisted on.

    Amir took 25% of his shots in crunch time and shot 60% with 80% being assisted on.

    Amar'e took 38% of his shots in crunch time and shot 49% with 54% being assisted on.

    Superman took 37% of his shots in crunch time and shot 53% with 41% being assisted on.

    So yes it is true that Johnson needs to get much better at creating his shot unassisted at crunch time.

    However as can be seen from the small example above he was the only big of the four whose FG% did not take quite a hit when shooting in crunch time.

    Moral of the story.

    Yes every team should have at least one player on the court at all times who can create their shot off of the dribble during crunch time on the clock. More importantly as a team you want to take most of your shots earlier in the clock because that is when a team is most effective scoring.

    However in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and the pace slows down it is harder for a team to get off good shots early in the shot clock. Therefore it is always good to have at least two players on the court at all times during the playoffs who can create their own shot in crunch time off of the dribble. This is one of the areas that Johnson clearly needs to improve on; i.e. the ability to create his own shot in crunch time off of the dribble, unassisted.

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    Quote Dan wrote: View Post
    Apollo,

    Of course, I understand that. I was more wondering how much people think he'll be able to play (18 mins per game? 30 mins per game?) and whether or not people think he can be as efficient as before (I don't.). What line are you expecting from Amir this season?
    Based on last years stats I am clocking him in at a rate of 6 minutes per foul. With that in mind along with the Ed Davis factor I think you're looking at on average 25 minutes per game for Amir Johnson. I think that's fair and realistic. That's enough time for him to be fantasy relevant.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Based on last years stats I am clocking him in at a rate of 6 minutes per foul. With that in mind and also the Ed Davis factor I think you're looking at one average 25 minutes per game for Amir Johnson. I think that's fair and realistic.
    I would agree with that.

    However, Johnson fans can always hope for him to man up in 10-11.

    We shall see.

    However, even in just 25 mpg in 10-11 I think he will be more effective per minute as it were than he was in 09-10 with 17 plus mpg.

    If Johnson can play those 25 mpg as effectively as I think he will then for those 25 mpg there will not be a big drop off between Bosh in those same 25 mpg and Johnson.

    The question is what can Davis do in his 15 - 25 mpg?

    If he is as good as Johnson was last season in Johnson's 17 plus mpg then there will not be too big a drop off in Bosh's 09-10 minutes in 10-11.
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Wed Sep 15th, 2010 at 04:38 PM.
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Just a thought or two

    1. At this point in time I would not take Amir in fantasy basketball. A lot of what he brings positively to the Raptors when he is on the court does not translate into winning fantasy numbers unless you include plus/minus in your fantasy stats and give it a disproportionately high value.

    2. Amir has yet to show over an extended number of games that he can average over 18 mpg. He may indeed do that one day and even in 10-11 but I for one am not betting on it. My argument is that he deserves the chance as a starter to see what he can do especially now that he has a developing offense.

    If can stay on the court great. If not then back to the bench as a bench rotation player. However, given the Raptors current roster he has earned a chance to try and see what will happen if he starts.

    3. He can create his own shot. The article is wrong when it says that he can't, Examples

    A. The act of properly rolling to the basket to get into a position to catch a pass in a position where you can then shoot is creating your own shot. It is just not creating it off of the dribble. Even the player who creates his own shot off of the dribble has to have the ball passed to him at some time unless he is the point guard who brings the ball up the court.

    B. Amir showed last season that he can beat his man off of the dribble with either hand going either to his right or left. Yes it is limited but he did do it last season and with all those "high school" dribbling exercises that he is practicing he should continue to improve in that area.

    C. Scoring off of run-outs. You have to be able to get down the floor quick enough to be in the proper position to catch the pass on a run-out play in order to score. Amir can do this. In the process he is creating the shot by putting himself in position to score on the play.

    It has seemed to me for a long time that the term "creating your own shot" has become a biased term that favors the player who can dribble and negates the ability to get open to catch a pass and then score off of the pass. In both situations the shooter is creating their own shot; i.e. one by dribbling to a position from which they can shoot and the other by getting to a position on the court where he can catch a pass and then shoot without much if any dribbling.

    Yes after you get to the proper place on the court you still need someone to pass the ball to you. However, even at the college level yet alone the NBA level if a player gets to the proper place on the court to receive a pass and then shoot, the ball can be passed to him without much difficulty. That is because by definition you are not getting to the proper position to shoot if someone can not easily pass the ball to you.
    I'm not sure if I understand what you're saying here. Are you saying that guys who receive a pass and score 'create their own shot', in addition to guys who can get shots of the dribble by themself? That basically means everybody who can score is a shot creator, and we should just do away with the expression 'create your own shot'. Not to get overly into semantics here, but the word "own" implies that you do it by yourself. A guy receiving a pass off a pick and roll, for example, already has the advantage that the defense is moving.

    My impression of a what it means for a guy to "create his own shot", is the ability to get off a good, high percentage shot when the defense is fully set and the rest of the offense is mostly static. The classic toss-the-ball-into-D-Wade scenario, with the other 4 guys mostly standing around and watching.

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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    I would agree with that.

    However, Johnson fans can always hope for him to man up in 10-11.

    We shall see.

    However, even in just 25 mpg in 10-11 I think he will be more effective per minute as it were than he was in 09-10 with 17 plus mpg.

    If Johnson can play those 25 mpg as effectively as I think he will then for those 25 mpg there will not be a big drop off between Bosh in those same 25 mpg and Johnson.

    The question is what can Davis do in his 15 - 25 mpg?

    If he is as good as Johnson was last season in Johnson's 17 plus mpg then there will not be too big a drop off in Bosh's 09-10 minutes in 10-11.
    If Amir limits his fouling troubles he certainly will be a far more cost effective fantasy option than Chris Bosh, who is probably going to be going in round two at the latest. Me personally, I would not take Bosh in either of the first two rounds right now. I would consider Amir sometime after round 9 depending on what is left on the board and my team needs. LOL, I don't seriously think Amir will make it to round 9 in any draft around here though.

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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure if I understand what you're saying here. Are you saying that guys who receive a pass and score 'create their own shot', in addition to guys who can get shots of the dribble by themself? That basically means everybody who can score is a shot creator, and we should just do away with the expression 'create your own shot'. Not to get overly into semantics here, but the word "own" implies that you do it by yourself. A guy receiving a pass off a pick and roll, for example, already has the advantage that the defense is moving.

    My impression of a what it means for a guy to "create his own shot", is the ability to get off a good, high percentage shot when the defense is fully set and the rest of the offense is mostly static. The classic toss-the-ball-into-D-Wade scenario, with the other 4 guys mostly standing around and watching.
    Yes a lot of guys can get off their own shot.

    The questions are

    1. Can they do it often or not?
    2. Can they make the shot with a high degree of accuracy?

    It is in my opinion more accurate to say. He can create off of the dribble, which people say.
    He can create by clearing out space, which people say.

    He can create by getting open, which people say sometimes. For example Rip Hamilton has never been known to have especially good handles. However, people say that he gets open by running behind and off of screens which is true.

    You could say Amir creates his shot with his extreme energy and athleticism which is also true.

    In may opinion the blanket catch all phrase "he can create his own shot" is just like that dumb term "role" player".

    If on the other hand when you use the phrase he can create his own shot to mean that a player can get into a good position with the ball with a good deal of frequency to shoot and make a high percentage of his shots regardless of how he gets into that position then I would accept it as a valid term.

    just my opinion.
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Wed Sep 15th, 2010 at 06:35 PM.
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    Ah, typically when someone says "he can create his own shot" what is meant is that the player has the ball handling and athletic ability to create space to effectively get his shot off without having a hand in his face and without the need of any help from anyone of his teammates. That phrase is not dumb at all. Amir can have all the energy in the world but he's not going to come out on top of a situation where the ball is in his hands, the defense is set and he has to create a good look for himself and make it.

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