Hollinger's 2010-11 Raptors Player Projections

[Dr. James Naismith]

This via ESPN's Insider:

Starters

JARRETT JACK, PG - Projection: 16.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 6.9 ast per 40 min; 15.14 PER

• Combo guard who can run offense but tends to over-dribble. Improved passer.
• Average shooter but draws fouls on drives. Tends to play well late in season.
• Struggles to defend quick point guards. Strong enough to check most 2s.

DeMAR DeROZAN, SG - Projection: 17.9 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 13.88 PER

• Explosive leaper who can finish in transition. Excellent offensive rebounder.
• Decent midrange shooter but lacks 3-point range. Doesn't see floor well.
• Athleticism has yet to translate into good defense. Mistake and foul-prone.

LINAS KLEIZA, SF - Projection: 16.9 pts, 9.6 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 13.96 PER

• Well-built forward who likes to shoot outside jumpers and crash offensive boards.
• Straight-line, right-hand driver. Left arm might as well have hook at end.
• Subpar defender who is too slow to guard wings and too short to defend 4s.

AMIR JOHNSON, PF - Projection: 12.5 pts, 10.0 reb, 1.5 ast per 40 min; 15.43 PER

• Long shot-blocking big man. Outstanding finisher in basket area.
• Despite blocks, a bad defender. Lacks strength and is absurdly foul-prone.
• Limited shooting range and no post game. Gets points on "garbage" baskets.

ANDREA BARGNANI, C - Projection: 18.5 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 14.34 PER

• Sweet-shooting big man with quick line-drive release. Rarely looks to pass.
• Good straight-line driver off shot fakes. Tends to pivot off wrong foot.
• Incredibly bad help defender. Doesn't react well or compete. Poor rebounder.

Reserves

JOSE CALDERON, PG - Projection: 15.0 pts, 3.3 reb, 9.8 ast per 40 min; 17.10 PER

• Smooth, ballhandling point guard. Has high dribble but never turns ball over.
• Shoots deadly accurate push shot from shoulder. Good finisher. Money at line.
• Horrific defensive player. Can't move laterally at all and lacks strength.

LEANDRO BARBOSA, SG - Projection: 20.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.4 ast per 40 min; 14.38 PER

• Among fastest players in league end-to-end; loves to streak up left side on break.
• Accurate long-range shooter despite odd release but has terrible court vision.
• Faces major size disadvantage at the 2. Gets steals but is not a good defender.

ED DAVIS, PF - No projection

• Long, slender, active big man who can really rebound and block shots.
• High percentage finisher who can hit short-range shots, but needs more ball skills.
• Needs to add strength and improve midrange jumper.

SONNY WEEMS, SG - Projection: 15.4 pts, 5.5 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 13.20 PER

• Athletic wing who can guard perimeter. Very good leaper and finisher.
• Good elevation on jump shot. Can hit from midrange over defenders.
• Needs better ball skills and more consistent long-range shot. Never draws fouls.

DAVID ANDERSEN, C - Projection: 14.7 pts, 9.3 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 11.10 PER

• Good pick-and-pop shooter who can also make turnarounds and hooks in post.
• Soft defender who gives ground and struggles to guard post without fouling.
• Decent leaper who can rebound, but poor lateral quickness.

JULIAN WRIGHT, SF - Projection: 12.8 pts, 7.2 reb, 2.2 ast per 40 min; 12.94 PER

• Slender, athletic forward who can handle the ball, run and jump.
• Poor outside shot limits halfcourt role; prone to poor decisions.
• Good rebounder for size and solid defender, but a tweener in terms of size.

SOLOMON ALABI, C - No projection

• Tall, athletic center who blocks shots. Regarded as great locker-room guy.
• Runs floor and competes but raw offensive game needs refinement.
• Lacks strength. College rebounding numbers were inexplicably poor.

MARCUS BANKS, PG - No projection

• Aggressive, athletic point guard with penchant for dribbling into trouble.
• Outstanding at pressuring ball but picks up fouls. Likes to push ball in transition.
• Below average outside shooter.

REGGIE EVANS, PF - No projection

• Tough, strong 4 who dominates on glass despite lack of hops and mobility.
• Regarded as one of league's dirtiest players. Picks up fouls in bunches.
• Can't shoot or get own shot. Offense comes almost entirely off put-backs.

Source - Click here

[OTFP]

wtf he predicts everyone getting playing time will average over 10 pts/game?

6.8 rebounds for Bargnananianaini? ha ha ha h aha

[Brasky]

wtf he predicts everyone getting playing time will average over 10 pts/game?

6.8 rebounds for Bargnananianaini? ha ha ha h aha

Per 40 minutes DERP

[Arsenalist]

That's odd, based on Bargnanis number's last year, his PER40 rebounding would be 7.08. So Hollinger is saying that Bargnani will actually become a worse rebounder. Don't think that's possible.

[golden]

Wow. The top 7 players range from horrific to not good defenders, in Hollinger's estimation. A bit surprised by the Amir comment, although he qualified it with the fouling rate.

Hey John - tell us how you really think of the Raps defensive abilities?

[Buddahfan]

Hollinger must have dug up some old Amir scouting reports on offense.

What he wrote about Amir's offense is a year old. Right now Johnson is one of the best in the NBA is rolling to the basket and finishing on post-ups and cuts to the basket to say nothing about in transition. He is also one of the best in the NBA at catching, shooting and finishing around the basket.

Regarding his one on one defense I agree that Johnson needs to improve in that area and obviously reduce his foul rate.

However, Hollinger's stats ignore team defense an area that Johnson has shown over the last three seasons to be consistently above average compared to other NBA Big men.

[Raptorsss]

If 15 Per is an average NBA player he only has 3 players above that? Brutal! I dislike Hollinger with a passion, but this is relatively good, compared to the majority of his hack reporting. I'd say, Derozan, Kleiza, Johnson, Weems and maybe Wright will perform better than his projection. And Andersen seems to be the only one who seems a little too high.

Also, Kleiza and/or Bargnani will both score more than Barbosa.

However, looking at the roster I may finally be more a little realistic(pessimistic) This is not a top 12 team in the East.

So, I hope the preseason will change my opinion (fingers crossed).

[Nick]

Pretty impressive job by Hollinger, I would like to see ANYBODY on Raps Republic go through every player in the league and critique them. Of course there's going to be minor glitches like Bargs rebounds going down, but for the most part he's right about each of these guys traits.

[Frankthetank]

I would have to disagree with almost everyone of Hollinger predictions. Jarret jack averaging 16.5 points a game and calderon averaging 17 points a game. If Hollinger didn't have a PHD in statistics then I would say Johnny doesn't now crap.

[Raptorsss]

Guys remember this Per 40 minutes. None of these players play 40 minutes, but if they did this is what they'd average.

[black angus]

can't wait for our top 5 pick in 2011

[Hassan]

one the biggest haters in sports .

[OTFP]

Per 40 minutes DERP

DERP ME
HA HA HA
I'm an idiot.
Let's move on.

[CalibreMC]

What does DERP stand for?

[ShinobiOne]

Had to laugh at the comment about Kleiza's left hand..."might as well have a hook at the end"!! bahahahhaha

[pistol pete]

That's odd, based on Bargnanis number's last year, his PER40 rebounding would be 7.08. So Hollinger is saying that Bargnani will actually become a worse rebounder. Don't think that's possible.

PER40 18.5 points is also a bit low, I think

[YKR23]

these numbers are obviously skewed, someone do the math and change these numbers to per playing time minutes instead of per 40 minutes

[JoePanini]

Yeah, I was reading the article, and I was shocked. Barbosa would have a higher PER than Bargs? And Bargs would have 18 and 6 per40? He has 17 and 6 in 34 last year, why would he get worse?

[Katman]

If Hollinger is going to be the ESPN Stats Guy and make projections there should be a disclaimer on the degree of confidence (or accuracy from previous years) in his numbers. Like +/- 1.2 PER. He was off on Bargs and DeRozan last year, if I recall correctly they both had +2 higher PER then Hollinger's season projections.

I hate guys that claim themselves to be experts and yet don't self evaluate themselves at the end of the season to report on how they did. They never make evaluation mistakes, the player always makes an unexpected leap, or who would have known ...

His stuff is usually BS, I'd prefer opinions from someone who actually watches the games.

[Trife76]

PER is a meaningless irrelevant made up stat....in 2010 people should not be taking John Hollingers opinion seriously...