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    Default ESPN Opening Tips: Toronto Raptors 2010-11 Preview

    ESPN just posted this on insider previewing the Atlantic division. This was the discussion on the Raps.

    Scoutspeak
    “ [DeRozan] can average 15-17 points this year and put himself in the conversation with his classmates, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings."

    "All you need to know is in their first name -- they're a foreign team. They're like a team in Europe with a few good American players, and that won't cut it in this league.

    "I do love DeMar DeRozan. He can be a superstar and reach the Vince Carter level. He's a freak athletically, a terror in transition, he can guard, he's competitive and he's got toughness and swagger. He can average 15-17 points this year and put himself in the conversation with his classmates, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings."

    "[Andrea] Bargnani is a nice big man who can stretch defenses, but Jose Calderon is nothing more than a really nice backup. If [Leandro] Barbosa plays like he did two years ago, he could be a nice addition. He's got to get his confidence back."

    Best-case scenario: "DeRozan emerges as a future star they can build around and they win 32 games."

    Worst-case scenario: "26 wins."

    Thorpe's breakout player: Amir Johnson, F

    The Raptors have a number of young players who will get ample opportunities to step forward and become serious contributors. But much is expected of Johnson, thanks to his five-year, $34 million deal signed this summer, and with lottery pick Ed Davis recovering from knee surgery, Johnson will have as many minutes as he can stomach to start the season. He looks to be a guy who can average 10 and 10, and while those numbers seem pedestrian when compared to Chris Bosh, they would be welcomed by the Toronto coaching staff and front office.

    Haberstroh's salary spotlight: Andrea Bargnani, C
    Age: 25 | 2010-11 salary: $8.5 million | Projected PER: 14.3

    The jury is out whether Bargnani will ever live up to No. 1 overall expectations, but the long-awaited verdict should arrive at the end of this upcoming season. Bosh has left Toronto, which shifts the spotlight squarely on the Italian big man who averaged 17.2 points last season.

    Bargnani can hit treys and block a few shots in the post, but he struggles with just about everything else. In fact, he had the lowest steal rate among qualified players last season, one of the lowest assist rates for a regular center and, to top it all off, his rebounding numbers measure up more closely to those of a shooting guard. With five years and $50 million left on his contract, the Raptors will need to see some improvement from their franchise player

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    Quote Raps4L wrote: View Post
    "I do love DeMar DeRozan. He can be a superstar and reach the Vince Carter level. He's a freak athletically, a terror in transition, he can guard, he's competitive and he's got toughness and swagger. He can average 15-17 points this year and put himself in the conversation with his classmates, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings."
    Wow that is high praise - and not really based on reality. The only statement I agree with is that he is a freak athletcially. He does have the occassional nice dunk in transition, but if he gets stopped he usually makes a terrible decision with the ball. I have seen limited competitiveness and zero toughness or swagger. In fact, he looks a little bit sheepish at times.

    I hope I am wrong, but I don't see Derozan ever being a full time starter let alone all-star.

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    Raptors Republic Starter matt's Avatar
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    Quote black angus wrote: View Post
    Wow that is high praise - and not really based on reality. The only statement I agree with is that he is a freak athletcially. He does have the occassional nice dunk in transition, but if he gets stopped he usually makes a terrible decision with the ball. I have seen limited competitiveness and zero toughness or swagger. In fact, he looks a little bit sheepish at times.

    I hope I am wrong, but I don't see Derozan ever being a full time starter let alone all-star.
    I think you are really being too critical of Derozan, unlike alot of the players we had in the past and current players like Barney, he is consistent with his offensive game, its the defencive side this year that I hope he improves on.

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    Quote black angus wrote: View Post
    Wow that is high praise - and not really based on reality. The only statement I agree with is that he is a freak athletcially. He does have the occassional nice dunk in transition, but if he gets stopped he usually makes a terrible decision with the ball. I have seen limited competitiveness and zero toughness or swagger. In fact, he looks a little bit sheepish at times.

    I hope I am wrong, but I don't see Derozan ever being a full time starter let alone all-star.
    at first I tend to agree and to be honest that thought has been crossing my mind more often with each preseason game. then I remind myself he just turned 21 in august. time will tell.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    at first I tend to agree and to be honest that thought has been crossing my mind more often with each preseason game. then I remind myself he just turned 21 in august. time will tell.
    I realize he is young - however, killer instinct and a will-to-win are not traits you develop as you age, they are typically characteristics you have had for a good part of your life. The great players have that undefinable intangible - the thing that makes them great.... and they have it before they enter the league. I don't see it in Derozan. Yes his jump shot may get better, and he will definitely improve his defence, and maybe his ball control and passing will strengthen; but even with all of those improvements he would still be missing that all-star quality.

    I just hope the Raptors don't get caught sitting around waiting for Derozan to improve for the next four or five years - like they have done with Bargnani.

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    Default ESPN Insider: Johnson to breakout, worst-case 26 wins

    ESPN did their thing again:

    TORONTO RAPTORS
    The Raptors have a potential star on the roster, but they will need much more time before they're ready to compete with the rest of the conference.

    Scoutspeak

    [DeRozan] can average 15-17 points this year and put himself in the conversation with his classmates, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings.

    "All you need to know is in their first name -- they're a foreign team. They're like a team in Europe with a few good American players, and that won't cut it in this league.

    "I do love DeMar DeRozan . He can be a superstar and reach the Vince Carter level. He's a freak athletically, a terror in transition, he can guard, he's competitive and he's got toughness and swagger. He can average 15-17 points this year and put himself in the conversation with his classmates, Tyreke Evans , Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings .

    "[Andrea] Bargnani is a nice big man who can stretch defenses, but Jose Calderon is nothing more than a really nice backup. If [Leandro] Barbosa plays like he did two years ago, he could be a nice addition. He's got to get his confidence back."

    Best-case scenario: "DeRozan emerges as a future star they can build around and they win 32 games."

    Worst-case scenario: "26 wins."

    -- As told to Chris Broussard

    Thorpe's breakout player: Amir Johnson , F

    The Raptors have a number of young players who will get ample opportunities to step forward and become serious contributors. But much is expected of Johnson, thanks to his five-year, $34 million deal signed this summer, and with lottery pick Ed Davis recovering from knee surgery, Johnson will have as many minutes as he can stomach to start the season. He looks to be a guy who can average 10 and 10, and while those numbers seem pedestrian when compared to Chris Bosh , they would be welcomed by the Toronto coaching staff and front office.

    Haberstroh's salary spotlight: Andrea Bargnani , C

    Age: 25 | 2010-11 salary: $8.5 million | Projected PER: 14.3

    The jury is out whether Bargnani will ever live up to No. 1 overall expectations, but the long-awaited verdict should arrive at the end of this upcoming season. Bosh has left Toronto, which shifts the spotlight squarely on the Italian big man who averaged 17.2 points last season.

    Bargnani can hit treys and block a few shots in the post, but he struggles with just about everything else. In fact, he had the lowest steal rate among qualified players last season, one of the lowest assist rates for a regular center and, to top it all off, his rebounding numbers measure up more closely to those of a shooting guard. With five years and $50 million left on his contract, the Raptors will need to see some improvement from their franchise player.

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    I like DeMar but he's nowhere close to VC...even athletically i dont think hes on par with Vince and until he can stick shots and work on range he is Gerald Green status and i am a fan of his....Vince was special when he broke into the league and you could see it right away how he attacked guys and made big shots...DeRozan isnt anywhere close to that kind of swagger yet....

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    Quote Trife76 wrote: View Post
    I like DeMar but he's nowhere close to VC...even athletically i dont think hes on par with Vince and until he can stick shots and work on range he is Gerald Green status and i am a fan of his....Vince was special when he broke into the league and you could see it right away how he attacked guys and made big shots...DeRozan isnt anywhere close to that kind of swagger yet....
    Vince played 3 years of college ball before he came into the league. DeRozan just completed his first season and is getting adjusted to the league. IF he can put up 15-17 ppg, he'll be well into making the Vince comparisons somewhat justified. The difference is that DeRozan works hard to get better and Vince just coasted.
    Demar shouldn't be considered anywhere near Gerald Green status. Green was not coachable and never wanted to put in the work to improve his game.

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    Quote MangoKid wrote: View Post
    Vince played 3 years of college ball before he came into the league. DeRozan just completed his first season and is getting adjusted to the league. IF he can put up 15-17 ppg, he'll be well into making the Vince comparisons somewhat justified. The difference is that DeRozan works hard to get better and Vince just coasted.
    Demar shouldn't be considered anywhere near Gerald Green status. Green was not coachable and never wanted to put in the work to improve his game.
    15-17 PPG still dont make that a comparison...Vince was a top 3 player in the league by his 3rd season (Shaq,AI,Vince)
    he needs to make shots,and dominate games if he wants to be in that discussion,something he hasnt shown yet....Vince didnt coast when he came into the league...he got lazy after his 4th season in the league after he was already a bonafied superstar...

    Who cares whos coachable and YOU dont know who puts in work....every player in the NBA puts in work thats how they got into the L, IF DeMar dont develop a consistent J thats where he headed....Dont forget Gerald Green was projected to be the second coming of T Mac

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    Quote Trife76 wrote: View Post
    15-17 PPG still dont make that a comparison...Vince was a top 3 player in the league by his 3rd season (Shaq,AI,Vince)
    It brings him a lot closer. The scout didn't say DeMar is going to be a carbon copy of VC. Also, different players grow at different paces. Jason Kidd was one of the best PGs in the league from day one where as it took Steven Nash years to reach that level of play. Key thing is, both dominated at certain points in their careers. DeMar's may have a bigger window before he plateaus when compared to Vince. You can't predict things like that but the similarities in his game compared to a young Vince Carter, even if the stats aren't there yet, are obvious.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    I have to agree with a lot of what this scout said. Not surprising seeing how this guy's job is to be in the field, analyzing each team to great detail and then reporting back to the GM. If anybody is going to be on the mark it should be the field guys like him. The wins predictions seems about right. I think 32 is going to be tough to reach as the team is now but this roster isn't about to stop changing right now with that big TPE on board (now through to the deadline).

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    DeRozan needs to learn how to shoot a long jumpshot/3s before you start comparing him to VC.

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    I still see TO from 15-25 as is given the Triano effect.....but that's why they play the games...

    AJ looks to be the 1st big off the bench even once Bad Luck Davis(starter) comes back healthy.

    DD needs top lay with a top level pg in order to get the most out his talent in my mind as Jose, Banks & Jack are all ideally back ups in the NBA.

    Once DD's handles get up and his J is more consistent he will be a threat to score anywhere on the court and/or get to the ft line. I don't know if he'll ever be a good as VC- time will tell.....

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    What I like about DD is he seems to be learning pretty fast and is much better at just about everything this preseason than he was at any time last year. When his jumper finally smooths out a bit he's gonna be tough to stop. He gets to the line, doesn't back down from anyone and is looking much more engaged in the defensive schemes. His offense will come.

    Don't know if he's 'elite' level material (it'd be nice) but he seems to have a great work ethic. The same thing that a lack of kept VC from ever reaching that "next" level. And he's a spineless douche bag. That never helps.

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    that's why I don't pay for Espn Insider- I have u guys
    What if... Blazers had drafted both Drexler, Jordan?

    From 1992 Beginner's Guide to the NBA Finals, The Oregonian's special section. Published 6/3/1992.

    Michael Jordan was the #3 pick in the 1984 draft, after Portland selected Sam Bowie second.

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    i think demar will be a star F**k all the haters

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    Details, shmetails but McGrady averaged 31 minutes in his final season in Toronto. I would point out that in his third season he was 22. If we wanted to compare T-Mac to DD based on age then we would be comparing T-Mac's Sophmore season to DD's rookie season. Here is how that stacks up:

    McGrady = BLUE
    DeRozan = RED

    AVG MIN: 22.36, PPG: 9.4, FG%: 43.6, 3PT%: 22.9, FTA: 3.2, FT%: 72.6, REB: 5.7, AST: 2.3, TO: 1.6, BLK: 1.4, PF: 1.9
    AVG MIN: 21.36, PPG: 8.6, FG%: 49.8, 3PT%: 25.0, FTA: 2.5, FT%: 76.3, REB: 2.9, AST: 0.7, TO: 0.8, BLK: 0.2, PF: 2.3

    What we see, based strictly on stats, is that age 21 McGrady had a much more rounded game, yet wasn't close to the efficiency DeRozan operated under. What we know from game film is that McGrady had a much better handle than DeRozan at age 21, which is validated by the stats. In terms of defense I feel McGrady's life was a lot easier than DeRozan's given that those old Raptors clubs valued and played defense much more so than the 2009-2010 team. DeRozan has no help and what's more is sometimes going to be forced away from his match up to try and eliminate teammate's mistakes. At age 21, McGrady is the superior player. One thing of note though is DeMar doesn't need the ball in his hands as much and isn't driven by his offense. I feel DeMar can effectively play in any system because of his willingness where as McGrady, in the past, wanted always to be the center of attention. Ah, the intangibles...
    Last edited by Apollo; Tue Oct 19th, 2010 at 10:29 PM.

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    I think everyone should look at Demar's biggest strength and compare to Vince. We know that Vince was a better shooter and a more skilled player but how do him and Demar compare when we look at free throw attempts? I'll be using a stat which compares the number of free throws a player gets to the FG attempts he takes.

    VC: the highest ratio he ever posted in his career was in his 8th year and it was 39 %. He was never over 36% any other time in his career and averaged 31%.

    Demar: Posted a 37.8% in his first year. This will likely drop as he develops a jumper.

    What this tells you is that Demar is already as good at getting to the line as VC was in the prime of his career.

    Now we look at a better comparison,IMO in T-Mac

    T-Mac: first year in the NBA put up a 0.28; However, in his second year he put up a 0.40. For those who may be confused this means for every 10 shots T-mac took that season, he took 4 free throws. Over his carreer he has averaged a 0.34.

    Demar compares favorably with both of these two superstars in terms of how often he got to the line vs how often he shot in a game. This is Demar's strength and what will make him great: he gets to the line and this preseason aside, he takes good shots.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...derozde01.html
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Details, shmetails but McGrady averaged 31 minutes in his final season in Toronto. I would point out that in his third season he was 22. If we wanted to compare T-Mac to DD based on age then we would be comparing T-Mac's Sophmore season to DD's rookie season. Here is how that stacks up:

    McGrady = BLUE
    DeRozan = RED

    AVG MIN: 22.36, PPG: 9.4, FG%: 43.6, 3PT%: 22.9, FTA: 3.2, FT%: 72.6, REB: 5.7, AST: 2.3, TO: 1.6, BLK: 1.4, PF: 1.9
    AVG MIN: 21.36, PPG: 8.6, FG%: 49.8, 3PT%: 25.0, FTA: 2.5, FT%: 76.3, REB: 2.9, AST: 0.7, TO: 0.8, BLK: 0.2, PF: 2.3

    What we see, based strictly on stats, is that age 21 McGrady had a much more rounded game, yet wasn't close to the efficiency DeRozan operated under. What we know from game film is that McGrady had a much better handle than DeRozan at age 21, which is validated by the stats. In terms of defense I feel McGrady's life was a lot easier than DeRozan's given that those old Raptors clubs valued and played defense much more so than the 2009-2010 team. DeRozan has no help and what's more is sometimes going to be forced away from his match up to try and eliminate teammate's mistakes. At age 21, McGrady is the superior player. One thing of note though is DeMar doesn't need the ball in his hands as much and isn't driven by his offense. I feel DeMar can effectively play in any system because of his willingness where as McGrady, in the past, wanted always to be the center of attention. Ah, the intangibles...

    Dude stop trying to change the argument..age is irrelvant were talking a few years,you cant quantify that into an argument,if a guy can play he can play it dont matter if its his 2nd year or a rook if he 20 or 23....fact is when Mcgrady played reg mins here at the end he showed he was a star and then went to ORL and became a front line top 5 player..stop trying to spin shit toting usless stats.....

    This is why i hate arguing with stat people...cuz yall try to spin everything...
    elite 2 guards beast almost right away with playing time..(i said a couple seasons)

    you cannot refute that cuz the elite guys became elite stars right away with PT....

    DD is not there yet but with consistent mins this year we should see it.....

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    Quote Trife76 wrote: View Post
    Dude stop trying to change the argument..age is irrelvant were talking a few years,you cant quantify that into an argument,if a guy can play he can play it dont matter if its his 2nd year or a rook if he 20 or 23....fact is when Mcgrady played reg mins here at the end he showed he was a star and then went to ORL and became a front line top 5 player..stop trying to spin shit toting usless stats.....

    This is why i hate arguing with stat people...cuz yall try to spin everything...
    elite 2 guards beast almost right away with playing time..(i said a couple seasons)

    you cannot refute that cuz the elite guys became elite stars right away with PT....

    DD is not there yet but with consistent mins this year we should see it.....
    I illustrated that it's not cut and dry as you're making it out to be. I'm not spinning anything. You made a statement and I proceeded to lay out logical analysis. I'm not a "stat person", I clearly used things other than stats as well. Maybe you don't like debating with people who make good points?

    Quote Edgar wrote: View Post
    Its true that history shows that elite players come into the league looking like elite players..... However I think we're all pushing unreasonable expectations on Derozan - His realistic ceiling is Iguodala/Jrich type of atheletes with OK jumpshots but by no means dominate teams off the bounce...
    It's also true that elite players can come not looking remotely like elite players and develop into elite players. Like Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas and Ben Wallace.
    Last edited by Apollo; Wed Oct 20th, 2010 at 03:58 PM.

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