Tim W. wrote:
Okay, let's look at the numbers. Bargnani averaged 16.6 ppg over 36 mpg in his rookie season. That number dipped to 15.3 the next season and then back up 17.6 ppg the next season. Last season, Bargnani averaged 17.7 ppg over 36 minutes. So it seems to be that the only reason that Bargnani has seen an increase in his scoring is he's been given more minutes. Last season, Bargnani averaged 10 more mpg than his rookie season, hence the reason for the jump in scoring. Otherwise, he's had an increase of 1.1 ppg over his first four season, which averages out to .275 points increase per season. I'd be willing to give him an extra 2 points increase this year due to more touches, just for argument sake (although I doubt that). That would give Bargnani averages of 20 ppg, 20.3 ppg, 20.6 ppg and 20.9 ppg (rounding up).
Right now, Bargnani has 4121 points. If he plays 80 games a season over the next four years, and averages those numbers above he'll add...
1,600 points next season.
1,624 points the season after that.
1,648 points in his seventh season.
1,672 points in his eight season.
That's a total of 10,665 points in eight seasons with the Raptors. That WOULD give him the most points by a Raptor near the end of his 8th season. But in order for this to happen, he would have to continue to have to score at the increased rate, which is unlikely, considering that players like DeRozan, who are better at creating their own offense, will be more and more involved in the offense. Plus, you're not taking into consideration new players added, through the draft, trade or free agency, which would take shots away from Bargnani. Plus, this doesn't take into consideration that Bargnani offensive efficiency will likely decrease if he is taking the most shots on the team, since defenses will be focused on him. It also assumes that Bargnani plays 80 games a season over the next four years. Far too many things would have to go his way for this to happen.
I know you'll probably ignore the stuff you don't want to read in this post, but the fact is that Bargnani will probably never average +20 ppg over the next four years. I actually doubt he'll do it this season. He's simply not an efficient enough scorer and doesn't create well enough for that to happen. With the increased touches DeRozan and Weems will get, plus the additions of Kleiza and Barbosa, there's no reason to believe that Bargnani will get any more shots than he did last year, and if that's the case, Bargnani would have to play 6 or 7 more years in order to score enough points to be able to overtake Bosh. And I actually doubt he'll be with the team another two years.