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Thread: Bosh, Jack, Evans - FG% Differential, Rebounding Differential and Wins and Losses

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Default Bosh, Jack, Evans - FG% Differential, Rebounding Differential and Wins and Losses

    Last season the Raptors were 40 - 42

    They ranked 9th in the league in FG% Differential + 1.4%
    They ranked 23rd in the league in Rebounding Differential per game - 0.9

    This season the Raptors so far are 1 - 7

    They rank 25th in the league in FG% Differential - 3.4%
    They rank 4th in the league in Rebounding Differential + 2.9


    Turnover Differential

    2009-10 9th plus 9
    2010-11 10th plus .8

    Very little change in Turnover Differential from last season so for purposes of this discussion I will leave out any further commentary on it.

    So although the Raptors have improved their Rebounding Differential significantly over last season their FG% Differential has worsened significantly as has their record.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    The rebounding differential has basically improved because of Reggie replacing Bosh and Johnson getting more minutes. Even though Bosh was a good rebounder Reggie has rebounded at a higher rate this season than Bosh did last season. Johnson is playing a bit more in minutes and rebounding slightly better than last season.

    So Reggie replacing Bosh has improved the Raptors Rebounding Differential

    However, adding Reggie to the starting lineup to replace Bosh has killed the shooting and the offense, down over 4 ppg from last season.

    1. Bosh was the best shooter last season. Reggie is the worst.

    2. With Bosh on the floor 35 plus mpg Jack could be effective distributing the ball just by dumping the ball into Bosh who would then go one on one. So Jack piled up assists by just dumping the ball into Bosh. Now however Jack starts on a unit that goes four on five on offense. This means that the importance of having a true Point Guard with the starting unit is now a lot more than when Bosh played for the Raptors.

    Jack's Assists have dropped from 6.6 Assists to 6.3 per 36 minutes. In the meantime his Turnovers per 36 minutes have increased from 2.6 to 4.2. Clearly he is missing the easy dump in pass to Bosh.

    3. The FG% of starters from both seasons

    Player------09-10-----10-11
    --------------------------------
    Bargnani----.470-----.442
    Jack--------.481-----.461
    DeRozan----.498-----.432

    So the three starters who started last season with Bosh and this season with Reggie are all shooting worse. Why? The starters have to play four on five this season on offense whereas last season with Bosh out there the Raptors starters were playing either five on five or five on four when Bosh was double teamed.

    4. Calderon in the meantime has increased his Assists per 36 over last season from 8.0 to 9.6 while his Turnovers per 36 minutes have increased from 2.0 to 2.6. Calderon passing ability becomes even more important without a player like Bosh who could score effectively by creating his own shot.

    Conclusion
    -------------
    A big part of the Raptors problem of only going 1 - 7 so far this season is due to the substantially lower FG% of the three starters left over from last season and Reggie who can't shoot and doesn't have to be guarded replacing Bosh.

    Suggestion - Replacing Reggie in the starting unit with someone who can score enough so they have to be guarded. This will ease the defensive pressure on the other four starters and their shooting will improve. The Raptors wills score more and win more.

    For example the top five teams in FG% differential before tonight were

    Dallas
    New Orleans
    Miami
    Los Angeles
    Atlanta

    The top five in rebounding differential before tonight were

    Orlando
    Chicago
    Minn
    Toronto
    Dallas

    The Won Loss record of the top FG% Differential teams was 31 - 9 or .775

    The Won Loss record of the top Rebounding Differential teams was 17 - 21 or .425


    Now lets compare the records of the bottom six in FG% and rebounding differential. I chose six here because the Raptors are the sixth worst shooting team in terms of FG% differential

    Six worst FG% differential

    Toronto
    Wash
    N.Y.
    Det.
    OK
    Minn

    Six worst rebounding differential

    Cleve
    Den
    Det
    Phoenix
    Wash
    Memphis


    The Won Loss record of the six worse FG% Differential teams was 14 - 32 or .304

    The Won Loss record of the six worse Rebounding Differential teams was 19 - 27 or .413


    So we see from above that the top teams in FG% differential have a better combined record than the top teams in rebounding differential

    The bottom teams in FG% differential have a worst combined record than the bottom teams in rebounding differential

    Final conclusion and suggestion:

    The Raptors need to replace Evans in the starting lineup with someone who can score and needs to be guarded even if it means reducing or possibly even giving up their edge in rebounding. They also need to replace Jack in the starting lineup with Calderon because he is a better passer and they need that better passing from a PG without a player like Bosh in the staring lineup.


    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/stats/by...ar=season_2009

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...caldejo01.html

    http://raptorsrepublic.com/forums/sh...ing-Role/page4
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Fri Nov 12th, 2010 at 02:29 AM.
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    Raptors Republic Starter matt's Avatar
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    I always thought that no matter how much they tweaked the lineups, the defence would not change that much, so I have to agree with you.

    Might as well go for what we`re good at? scoring.
    You start Amir, and maybe Jose as well, and you get an international version of the Warriors, a team that could give a doodle about defence, that will get us to being somewhere between the playoffs and lottery....................wait, that was last years team, excluding Bosh.

    Ok I take back what I said, this version with Reggie starting is better, F$%K Johnson and Calderon, this year is either go hard or home. Nothing in between, the version you proposing gets us NOWHERE.

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    Amir has to start. But as I have said before, him starting or atleast playing big minutes is almost completely up to him. We need to get another PF really badly. Because although Reggie's rebounding is great, he is just not a starter. He shouldn't be playing more than 20 minutes a game.

    And Jack has been really bad this season. He is just not a PG. If he was a few inches taller he would be a pretty good SG but he isn't one. He keeps on driving, and that's good but he should be able to kick it out, there is usually at least one open guy every time he drives, and he doesn't make most of his shots when he gets in the paint. But we are lucky that we have 2 PG who COULD (a very big could) start so whoever plays better on the night should play more, for now it's Jose.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    I posted this yesterday and got accused of coming up with a knee-jerk line-up. We're on the same page with this Buddah:

    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    When will the starting line-up change? When the team is 1-21? Triano went on last night saying that he's proud of the team. Great, for morale I guess. Offense continues to be a problem and defence was lagging just behind the offence. We saw glimpses last night of what Wright can do and yet he still cannot start. Kleiza is great but streaky. His defence is average at best and at SF, his mobility is suspect. I'm not throwing him under the bus, he just deserves to be the #1 or # 2 offensive option off the bench. Reggie should come off the bench too and after last night, I'm convinced that DeMar should come off the bench in favour of Weems. No, these are not Monday armchair quarterback moves, just a very keen observation from the last 5 games. Tweak to this line-up Jay:

    PG: Calderon - Assists to turn-over ratio is way better than Jack. Needs to regain shooting stroke.

    SG: Weems - Mobile, still takes bad shots but defenders will have to be honest with him - this means he spreads the floor.

    SF: Wright - Better defender, energy guy, puts the ball on the floor, another interior option if need be, really crashes the glass with reckless abandon, slightly wild. Kleiza better scorer - but off the bench.

    PF: Johnson - Energy, rebounds, put-backs, offence in the post. With him, we have an inside, outside game. Bargs, can set up a tent, a sleeping bag and several Twilight novels at the 3-point line and we'd still be ok.

    C: Bargani - Spreads the floor.

    Bench:
    Jack (horrible turnovers last night - 6, Jose had 9 dimes, 1 TO - nuff said)
    Derozan
    Kleiza
    Evans
    Anderson

    For the love of god Jay, please change. Also, why are we so proud of bench scoring when our current bench SHOULD BE STARTING?
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    Raptors Republic Rookie Liston's Avatar
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Final conclusion and suggestion:

    The Raptors need to replace Evans in the starting lineup with someone who can score and needs to be guarded even if it means reducing or possibly even giving up their edge in rebounding. They also need to replace Jack in the starting lineup with Calderon because he is a better passer and they need that better passing from a PG without a player like Bosh in the staring lineup.
    Good analysis, but " someone who can score and needs to be guarded even if it means reducing or possibly even giving up their edge in rebounding" does not exist on our roster.
    I would argue that the Calderon-Johnson pairing generally is more effective than the Jack-Johnson pairing.

    A small point - just "dumping the ball into Bosh who would then go one on one" doesn't always translate into an assist - the rules are different that hockey - the NBA statistician's manual says an assist should be "credited to a player tossing the last pass leading directly to a field goal, only if the player scoring the goal responds by demonstrating immediate reaction to the basket."

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    I posted this yesterday and got accused of coming up with a knee-jerk line-up. We're on the same page with this Buddah:
    Interestingly enough I would like to see that lineup that you suggested start, actually start.

    When you are 1 - 7 possibly headed to 1 - 9 it makes sense to me to try something different. It can't make matters too much worse.
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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Liston wrote: View Post
    Good analysis, but " someone who can score and needs to be guarded even if it means reducing or possibly even giving up their edge in rebounding" does not exist on our roster.
    I would argue that the Calderon-Johnson pairing generally is more effective than the Jack-Johnson pairing.

    A small point - just "dumping the ball into Bosh who would then go one on one" doesn't always translate into an assist - the rules are different that hockey - the NBA statistician's manual says an assist should be "credited to a player tossing the last pass leading directly to a field goal, only if the player scoring the goal responds by demonstrating immediate reaction to the basket."
    1. I don't think that the Calderon - Johnson deal is anything special. It is what you would see if Johnson played with the likes of CP3, D-Will, Rondo, Kidd, Wall and even E. Bledsoe just for example; i.e. any true point guard.

    2. You are correct about the assists. The dump off pass doesn't always result in an assist if the player receiving the pass dribbles a lot before shooting, but if it is a pass and then a spot up or fade away jump shot directly out of the pass then it should.

    Bosh scored more field goals on jump shots and got most of his free throws when he drove to the basket.
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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    I posted this yesterday and got accused of coming up with a knee-jerk line-up. We're on the same page with this Buddah:
    I said it was a knee jerk reaction because a couple of those players are only playing better AT THE MOMENT. Is Wright a better player than Kleiza? I doubt it and over an entire season I think the Raptors would probably be better to have Kleiza starting. Same for Weems and DeRozan.

    As for the thread, I certainly agree that the team is much worse offensively, but only part of that is due to Reggie being in the starting lineup. No one seems to be shooting well this year, even if Reggie is on the bench. Calderon doesn't play with Reggie much and he's shooting poorly. Barbosa is also shooting poorly despite not playing much with Reggie. That's 17 shots per game from players shooting under 40% and has nothing to do with Reggie starting.

    And does anyone really believe that Reggie is going to be the full time starter? When Ed Davis comes back, he'll most likely be inserted in the starting lineup as soon a possible.
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    It took all that number crunching to deduce that replacing a rare high efficiency, high usage player with a low usage, low efficiency player was gonna make the offense suck donkey balls? Not to mention that Bosh wasn't that bad of a rebounder, and what did everyone think was gonna happen?

    Well, apparently Jay didn't (or still doesn't) realize it because he was all happy in the pre-season, saying how great it was that CB4 was gone, because now he didn't have anybody to "cater to", giving him flexibility to implement his free flowing egalitarian Euro offense.

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