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Thread: I Know This Post Will Jinx Him The "Garbage Man" is Now 4th in Points Per 36 Minutes

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Default I Know This Post Will Jinx Him The "Garbage Man" is Now 4th in Points Per 36 Minutes

    He is now 4th in scoring per 36 minutes and yet still only 9th in USG%.

    1. Bargnani
    2. Barbosa
    3. Weems

    He is actually scoring more points per 36 minutes than

    5. DeRozan
    6. Jack
    7. Kleiza
    8. Calderon
    9. Andersen
    10. Wright

    I would think that DeRozan and probably Kleiza will probably pass him in points per 36 minutes before the season is out.

    We shall see

    Raptors Stats

    With scorers like him maybe what the Raptors need is a complete "Sanitation" department to clean up their opponents.

    Side Note: He has made 3.5 Field Goals a game which is .2 less than what is needed to qualify for the FG% ranking. He would currently rank 2nd in the league in FG% if he qualified.

    NBA FG% Leaders
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Sun Nov 14th, 2010 at 09:23 AM.
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    Raptors Republic Rookie Brain Colangelo's Avatar
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    Buddah - does this mean you're dusting off your blog?

    One thought - Amir is not the right frontcourt partner for Andrea because they're both below average defensive rebounders. I think they work well together in other facets of the game but on the D-Boards I prefer Joey Dorsey.

    Trade Reggie. Now.

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    Quote Brain Colangelo wrote: View Post
    Buddah - does this mean you're dusting off your blog?

    One thought - Amir is not the right frontcourt partner for Andrea because they're both below average defensive rebounders. I think they work well together in other facets of the game but on the D-Boards I prefer Joey Dorsey.

    Trade Reggie. Now.
    Kleiza is a good defensive rebounder, and is a good power forward overall. I think we should try and move him to the four for a couple of games...

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Brain Colangelo wrote: View Post
    Buddah - does this mean you're dusting off your blog?

    One thought - Amir is not the right frontcourt partner for Andrea because they're both below average defensive rebounders. I think they work well together in other facets of the game but on the D-Boards I prefer Joey Dorsey.

    Trade Reggie. Now.
    Too early in the season to dust off the NBA 25-15 blog. Lets see how things look come next spring.

    The rebounding issue is very complex and I don't want to get into it now because it would take more time than I have available.

    I will just say this. Johnson as opposed to some bigs does not park his ass under the basket on defense waiting for rebounds. He does on offense which he does very good at, but on defense he tends to be all over the court. Having said that I don't think that he has the nose for the rebound on defense as good as the majority of starting Power Forwards. He doesn't mind fighting for the rebound, it is just that his reaction to where the missed shot will go is slower than others. Very good rebounders will know when a shot is on the way to the basket whether it will go in or not and if not where it will carom to. I think Johnson is below average in that area on defense.
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    PER 36 means nothing. It is not a real stat !!! He can be number #1 in PER 36 and still suck. If a player can not stay on the floor then who cares what his PER 36 is !! Also, If he can not keep the same energy and intensity for 36 minutes, then who cares about the PER 36 !!

    This is like Saying, I can run 100 m in 13 sec so therefore, I should be able to run 1km in 2 minutes and 10 second!!! It just does not make sense.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Raptor4Ever wrote: View Post
    PER 36 means nothing. It is not a real stat !!! He can be number #1 in PER 36 and still suck. If a player can not stay on the floor then who cares what his PER 36 is !! Also, If he can not keep the same energy and intensity for 36 minutes, then who cares about the PER 36 !!

    This is like Saying, I can run 100 m in 13 sec so therefore, I should be able to run 1km in 2 minutes and 10 second!!! It just does not make sense.
    Stats per 36 tell how much a player produces for the time that they are on the court. This is extremely meaningful for measuring starters and rotation players because what really counts is how effective you are when you are on the court. The fact that a player is not on the court for whatever number of minutes is irrelevant to the time that they are on the court.

    The fact that he can't stay on the court because of foul trouble is indeed a problem. His foul problem clearly hurts the Raptors, not because of the foul itself but because it limits his time on the court. However, that problem has nothing to do with how effective he is when on the court.

    Now one could argue that the fouls hurt the team, but as we saw against Orlando the fouls helped the Raptors win. So it isn't so simple.
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Sun Nov 14th, 2010 at 01:55 PM.
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    Quote Raptor4Ever wrote: View Post
    PER 36 means nothing. It is not a real stat !!! He can be number #1 in PER 36 and still suck. If a player can not stay on the floor then who cares what his PER 36 is !! Also, If he can not keep the same energy and intensity for 36 minutes, then who cares about the PER 36 !!

    This is like Saying, I can run 100 m in 13 sec so therefore, I should be able to run 1km in 2 minutes and 10 second!!! It just does not make sense.
    I'm sick of people completely dismissing per 36 mpg stats. Are they entirely accurate? No. Do they mean nothing? Absolutely not. If a player plays around 20 or more mpg, per 36 stats are a very good indicator of the type of production a player brings. A perfect example is when trying to gauge the statistical improvement of a player like Bargnani (this is not a Bargnani argument, just using him as an example). Simply looking at per game stats, it appears he's improved every facet of his game, but per 36 is more revealing. It seems the improvement in scoring, rebounding etc, is mostly due to an increase in minutes, not an improvement of production.

    Most players produce relatively the same whether they play 25 mpg or 35 mpg. People who dismiss per 36 minutes stats simply have not researched enough.
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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    I'm sick of people completely dismissing per 36 mpg stats. Are they entirely accurate? No. Do they mean nothing? Absolutely not. If a player plays around 20 or more mpg, per 36 stats are a very good indicator of the type of production a player brings. A perfect example is when trying to gauge the statistical improvement of a player like Bargnani (this is not a Bargnani argument, just using him as an example). Simply looking at per game stats, it appears he's improved every facet of his game, but per 36 is more revealing. It seems the improvement in scoring, rebounding etc, is mostly due to an increase in minutes, not an improvement of production.

    Most players produce relatively the same whether they play 25 mpg or 35 mpg. People who dismiss per 36 minutes stats simply have not researched enough.
    Most guys who been regular rotation players from the beginning of their careers rarely improve their 36 minute numbers. So when someone does it is noteworthy

    Minutes Per Game
    --------------------
    07-08--------12.3
    08-09--------14.7
    09-10--------17.7
    10-11--------19.4


    Rebounds per 36 Minutes (Have not improved)
    -------------------------------------------
    07-08--------11.1
    08-09--------09.2
    09-10--------09.8
    10-11--------09.6


    However Points Per 36 Minutes have improved significantly
    -----------------------------------------------
    07-08--------10.4
    08-09--------08.6 - The Iverson debacle
    09-10--------12.7
    10-11--------16.9

    So with the increased minutes per game and increased points per 36 minutes Johnson is changing from just a "garbage man" on offense to a legitimate scorer. Of course a lot of this is due to and continually dependent upon the guards getting him the ball.

    His Usage Percentage has also gone up noticeably
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    07-08--------14.1%
    08-09--------11.1% - The Iverson debacle
    09-10--------14.5%
    10-11--------16.5%

    Notice that his points per 36 now exceed this Usage%

    Right now he is the only Raptors player who PP36 exceed their Usage Percentage.

    What all this means is at least so far his efficiency on offense is concerned is that so far this season it is not suffering from higher usage which is what some people said would happen.

    Of course it is only 10 games so these numbers while promising may not indicate with any kind of confidence how he will do on offense for the entire season.

    We shall see.

    You would think Raptors fans would be happy about this.
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Sun Nov 14th, 2010 at 02:32 PM.
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    The stat means nothing to me unless the player averages 36 minutes. The fact is that most of these players will never average 36 minutes or close to it. To me it's sort of 'fools gold'. I don't care about what he 'could do' in 36 minutes. I care about what he does in the minutes that he is given.

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    Quote Macc wrote: View Post
    The stat means nothing to me unless the player averages 36 minutes. The fact is that most of these players will never average 36 minutes or close to it. To me it's sort of 'fools gold'. I don't care about what he 'could do' in 36 minutes. I care about what he does in the minutes that he is given.
    Since you obviously didn't read my or Buddahfan's posts, I'll repost the important points:

    If a player plays around 20 or more mpg, per 36 stats are a very good indicator of the type of production a player brings.
    Most players produce relatively the same whether they play 25 mpg or 35 mpg.
    Most guys who been regular rotation players from the beginning of their careers rarely improve their 36 minute numbers. So when someone does it is noteworthy
    I say again, you don't don't think per 36 minute stats mean anything you haven't done enough research, or simply don't understand what the numbers mean.

    The fact is that when Amir is on the floor, he is one of the most productive Raptor players. The only way you can tell this is through per 36 minute stats. That in itself is a good indication that he should play more minutes.
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    Quote Macc;50001[COLOR="Red" wrote:
    ]The stat means nothing to me unless the player averages 36 minutes. [/COLOR]The fact is that most of these players will never average 36 minutes or close to it. To me it's sort of 'fools gold'. I don't care about what he 'could do' in 36 minutes. I care about what he does in the minutes that he is given.
    So Kevin Loves stats mean nothing to you.

    And the stats of all of these other players who are playing under 30 mpg would mean nothing to you.

    I think you have a hole in your screen door
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    This is interesting. On one hand you have an amir loving person whos posts are always biased, and on the other hand you have a solid stat along with a solid player.

    What to do?

    Ill give you this one buddah...lol?

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    This is the problem with PER 36 where you compare Amir Johnson with Kevin Love

    I stand by what I said, PER 36 does not mean anything unless a player shows he is able to handle those extra minutes and compete against the starters the same way he did when he was playing against the 2nd unit for 18 minute of a game everynight.
    Last edited by Raptor4Ever; Sun Nov 14th, 2010 at 10:07 PM.

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    @ Tim & Buddah: You guys are ignoring Amir's astronomical foul rate, which is 7.2 fouls per 36min. Last time I checked, you can only foul 6 times in an NBA game, which means Amir will never get past 30 minutes, assuming he fouls out every single game. And since we're playiing the 'extrapolation game', assume he averages 5 fouls per game, then the max minutes he can average is 25MPG. Not bad, for him anyway, but that's not starter material.

    Having said that, credit where credit is due. Amir's last week or so has been great. His efficiency has been outstanding, which is mostly a result of his unreal OREB% so far. Garbage man is the perfect term. Dare I say, that the Raps best offensive rebounders (Amir, Reggie & Dorsey) benefit the most from the absence of Bosh, resulting in more opportunities for OREBs because of team's overall worse shooting percentages. Enjoy it while it lasts, because it's unlikely that Amir can maintain an OREB% so far above his career average and the resulting put backs. Those are easy buckets and if it continues, opposing teams will gameplan for Amir and keep him off the glass.

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    I, at least, am not claiming that Amir can play 36 mpg, but the fact is that, when he is on the court, he is extremely productive, so he should be given as many minutes as possible.

    And can you guys please stop saying per 36 minute stats are meaningless. They aren't. They are the absolute best indicator of how productive a player is when he is on the court, which is what matters most.

    And if per 36 minute stats are meaningless, why do you guys think that he would foul out in that amount of time? The only way to tell that is by using per 36 minute stats, which apparently are meaningless...
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    I, at least, am not claiming that Amir can play 36 mpg, but the fact is that, when he is on the court, he is extremely productive, so he should be given as many minutes as possible.

    And can you guys please stop saying per 36 minute stats are meaningless. They aren't. They are the absolute best indicator of how productive a player is when he is on the court, which is what matters most.

    And if per 36 minute stats are meaningless, why do you guys think that he would foul out in that amount of time? The only way to tell that is by using per 36 minute stats, which apparently are meaningless...
    Well, I didn't say they were meaningless, but they are just one tool of many to analyze a player (including watching the games, lol). They are quite useful, but not the absolute best stat, as you stated. The most glaring deficiency is that per 36 min stats are not pace adjusted, so in many circumstances it's better to look at ratings & percentages, etc...

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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Well, I didn't say they were meaningless, but they are just one tool of many to analyze a player (including watching the games, lol). They are quite useful, but not the absolute best stat, as you stated. The most glaring deficiency is that per 36 min stats are not pace adjusted, so in many circumstances it's better to look at ratings & percentages, etc...
    You didn't claim they were meaningless, but others have, and that part was directed at them.

    As for your assertion, it's true that a player isn't going to play as hard for 36 minutes as he's going to play for 20, but first of all, that's besides the point if you want to find out how productive a player is while he's on the court. Whether or not he can stay on the court that long, the stats give you a good indication of what he does when he's on it. And also, players generally produce pretty similar numbers whether they play 26 or 36 minutes. Most players play a certain way instinctively and playing more minutes generally doesn't change that. For example, look at Marco Belinelli's stats...
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...belinma01.html

    His per 36 minute stats have changed very little from last year to this year even though he's getting 10 more minutes a game this season.
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    You didn't claim they were meaningless, but others have, and that part was directed at them.

    As for your assertion, it's true that a player isn't going to play as hard for 36 minutes as he's going to play for 20, but first of all, that's besides the point if you want to find out how productive a player is while he's on the court. Whether or not he can stay on the court that long, the stats give you a good indication of what he does when he's on it. And also, players generally produce pretty similar numbers whether they play 26 or 36 minutes. Most players play a certain way instinctively and playing more minutes generally doesn't change that. For example, look at Marco Belinelli's stats...
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...belinma01.html

    His per 36 minute stats have changed very little from last year to this year even though he's getting 10 more minutes a game this season.
    Minor correction here, Timmy. I think you misunderstood my use of the term 'pace adjusted', to mean guys pacing themselves. Pace adjusted means that some stats are calculated on a "per 100 possession" basis, as opposed to per minute (or per 36 min basis). This is to account for the fact that teams like PHX, NYK, GSW play at a high pace, which inflates the stats of some guys (like David Lee, for example) because they more offensive/defensive possessions, resulting in more opportunities to pad stats in the same amount of minutes. Using per 36 min to compare players within the same team (i.e. same pace) is valid, IMO.

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    Will he lose his #1 ranking from last season?

    Fouls Per 36 Minutes Ranking

    Fouls Per 36 Minutes Ranking 2009-10
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