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Thread: Odds of Amir Johnson Ever Becoming A Starter are Pretty Darn Low To Say The Least.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Default Odds of Amir Johnson Ever Becoming A Starter are Pretty Darn Low To Say The Least.

    Johnson is averaging 6.7 fouls per 36 minutes and playing 19.8 mpg.

    There have only been 8 players in the history of the NBA who have averaged 6.7 fouls or more per 36 minutes in a single season and played more than 19.8 mpg.

    The most mpg that any player in the NBA has ever averaged per game in a single season while averaging 6.7 or more fouls per 36 minutes is 23.7 mpg.

    It has been done once

    In 1985-86 Chocolate Thunder averaged 6.8 fouls per 36 minutes and 23.7 mpg.

    So it seems that unless Johnson can lower his foul rate (his career rate is 6.5) he is close to being maxed out in his mpg which is great news for Ed Davis.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last season Johnson averaged only 6.3 fouls per 36 minutes.

    32 times in the history of the NBA have players averaged 6.3 fouls per 36 minutes or more and played more mpg than Johnson is currently playing

    The most mpg that a player has ever played in single season while averaging at least 6.3 fouls per 36 minutes took place in 1982-83 and again it was Chocolate Thunder. He averaged 6.5 fouls per 36 minutes and 25.8 mpg in that season.

    So even if Johnson reduces in foul rate to last season’s number it again appears that he is relatively close to the maximum mpg that he can play this season. Maybe Triano with proper rotation handling could squeeze a couple more mpg out of Johnson even if Johnson can not reduce his foul rate per 36 minutes to below 6.3.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The most fouls per 36 minutes that a NBA player has ever incurred in single season and played 30 or more mpg was in 2006-07.

    K-Mart played exactly 30 mpg that season while averaging 5.7 fouls per 36 minutes.

    So it seems pretty conclusive that Johnson would have to make a massive and I mean massive improvement in his foul rate before he could considered for the starting slot.

    Chances of it happening this season? Does not appear good for him at this point. Many would say it will never happen. I would not argue to strenuously against that assessment.

    In five plus NBA seasons the fewest fouls that Johnson has averaged per 36 minutes while playing in 10 games or more was the 6.3 of last season.

    So what are the chances that Johnson ever becomes a NBA starter at some time in his NBA career? I would not bet on it.

    =============
    Johnson has shown that he can play around 20 solid mpg coming off of the bench. His all around on court production individually and team wise is superior to Evans.

    Evans only starts because Johnson has never shown that he can consistently stay out of foul trouble enough to play starters minutes.

    Question: So when Davis is ready to contribute big minutes what will be the pecking order among

    Davis
    Johnson
    Evans?

    Bonus Question: Will Triano play Johnson and Davis together?

    Goldberg would love to do it. (Bob Costas quote)

    source: BasketballReference.com Player Season Finder

    Cross posted on the front page of the website with some minor changes here.

    A player can practice his shooting and improve his shooting

    Double Bonus Question: Can a "foul machine" practice not fouling to lower his foul rate and still play good enough to stay in the rotation?
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    Yes I think Davis can contribute immediately. Also, I think this is a reason why we should try and get Thompson or sign TYoung in the summer. Reggie shouldn't be re-signed, and with Amir having foul problems, and Ed being quite raw. Having another young back-up would do us no harm. Anyways, Davis will be really great for this team. Can't wait for him to come back.

    I hope not, Ed is 6-10 225 lbs and Amir is 6'9 210 lbs. Both are PF. But it really depends on who they will be matched-up with. They would be pretty athletic, and would be our best defensive bigman combo...

    Yes, I think. If he learns to use his hands less, or play with less contact whilst staying aggressive...

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote JoePanini wrote: View Post
    Yes I think Davis can contribute immediately. Also, I think this is a reason why we should try and get Thompson or sign TYoung in the summer. Reggie shouldn't be re-signed, and with Amir having foul problems, and Ed being quite raw. Having another young back-up would do us no harm. Anyways, Davis will be really great for this team. Can't wait for him to come back.

    I hope not, Ed is 6-10 225 lbs and Amir is 6'9 210 lbs. Both are PF. But it really depends on who they will be matched-up with. They would be pretty athletic, and would be our best defensive bigman combo...

    Yes, I think. If he learns to use his hands less, or play with less contact whilst staying aggressive...
    Johnson is not 6'9' and 210 pounds. Those were his numbers when he was drafted at age 18.

    He is now about 6'11 and about 235 pounds which is probably a couple of inches shorter than Camby who is close to 7'1" or better? (a lot of players don't like to be identified as 7 footers) and not much heavier than Johnson.

    He said he weighted 237 when asked during the pre-season.

    You can Google Amir Johnson 6'11" and you will find a number of links stating this including player profile links.

    Also if you can find pictures of Johnson standing next to Rasheed Wallace, Sheed is only slightly taller. Sheed was listed at 6'11" but he was definitely 7' or more. He was one of those players that did not like to be identified as a 7 footer.
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Tue Nov 23rd, 2010 at 11:37 AM.
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Johnson is not 6'9' and 210 pounds. Those were his numbers when he was drafted at age 18.

    He is now about 6'11 and about 235 pounds which is probably a couple of inches shorter than Camby who is close to 7'1" or better? (a lot of players don't like to be identified as 7 footers) and not much heavier than Johnson.

    He said he weighted 237 when asked during the pre-season.

    You can Google Amir Johnson 6'11" and you will find a number of links stating this including player profile links.

    Also if you can find pictures of Johnson standing next to Rasheed Wallace, Sheed is only slightly taller. Sheed was listed at 6'11" but he was definitely 7' or more. He was one of those players that did not like to be identified as a 7 footer.
    Didn't know that. Do you think he can play center? I think he would be a more capable center than Bosh was though.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote JoePanini wrote: View Post
    Didn't know that. Do you think he can play center? I think he would be a more capable center than Bosh was though.
    He is playing some center right now.

    I can't wait for him and Davis to be on the court together.

    Make it so.
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie teoserio's Avatar
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    last 5 games

    vs MIA: 5 PF - 25 min - L
    vs WAS: 0 PF - 18 min - L
    vs PHI: 6 PF - 14 min - W (embarrassing)
    vs HOU: 2 PF - 27 min - W
    vs BOS: 5 PF - 24 min - W

    If he can stay on 3,5 / 4 he could be a real factor in this team. what do you think?
    Last edited by teoserio; Tue Nov 23rd, 2010 at 12:03 PM. Reason: added W/L
    Let's go Raptors!

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    i dunno he's been playing quite well. his 1 on 1 and help defense is probably the best on the team.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    These are Johnson's current rankings among all NBA playing who are currently playing 25 or less mpg and at least 200 minutes for the season

    Category--------Season number-Rank
    --------------------------------------
    Total Win Shares-----1.4---------1st - On a pace for 8.4 total Win Shares for the season - Bosh had 9.6 for the 09-10 season
    Offensive Rating------136--------1st
    True Shooting %-----.683--------1st
    Offensive RPG---------3.0--------2nd
    PER------------------21.5--------2nd
    Total RPG-------------5.5--------13th
    Points Per Game-------9.1--------14th
    Usage Rating %-------16.6--------23rd - Usage % is up from last season
    Def Rating-----------105---------28th tied

    I think his Defensive Rating his hurt by playing on a team that is currently 21st in points allowed per game.

    These numbers are starting to show that even though Johnson is a pretty good defender that for the minutes he plays he is one of the better offensive players in the league coming off of the bench right now even though his Usage% is still a bit low. I would like to see it get up to around 18% - 20% which could very well move him into the top 10 in Points Per Game of all players in the league averaging 25 minutes per game or less or essentially bench players.

    stats
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    “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
    Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    I do not say this as an insult to Johnson, but given his versatility and hustle I want him to keep coming off the bench.

    Remember, I'm not knocking the guy. You need depth to win, especially with big men due to foul issues (why did ORL spend $40M to keep Gortat as the backup?).

    I think the Raptors already have depth and a phenomenal bench players. They need some legitimate starters IMO.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star WJF's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I do not say this as an insult to Johnson, but given his versatility and hustle I want him to keep coming off the bench.

    Remember, I'm not knocking the guy. You need depth to win, especially with big men due to foul issues (why did ORL spend $40M to keep Gortat as the backup?).

    I think the Raptors already have depth and a phenomenal bench players. They need some legitimate starters IMO.
    I think this is best as well. Although he does need to cut down on his fouls, his energy off the bench would out weigh his production as a starter. He can back up both the 4 and 5 spots and plays with out needing plays run for him, great bench player who can earn big minutes and a regular spot in the rotation (the spot he has, the minutes needs work)

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    Johnson is averaging 6.7 fouls per 36 minutes and playing 19.8 mpg.

    There have only been 8 players in the history of the NBA who have averaged 6.7 fouls or more per 36 minutes in a single season and played more than 19.8 mpg.

    The most mpg that any player in the NBA has ever averaged per game in a single season while averaging 6.7 or more fouls per 36 minutes is 23.7 mpg.

    It has been done once

    In 1985-86 Chocolate Thunder averaged 6.8 fouls per 36 minutes and 23.7 mpg.

    So it seems that unless Johnson can lower his foul rate (his career rate is 6.5) he is close to being maxed out in his mpg which is great news for Ed Davis.
    Great post. I'll pick out this section because it sums up what I was saying leading into free agency, only you took it a step further here. Amir has to figure out how to be effective while keeping his body in check. Some of the things he gets called for are really sloppy plays and I feel because of that I think he's "conditioned" the officials to pay close attention to him. As a result he now gets called for some weak assed stuff that you wouldn't even see a guy like Reggie Evans getting hit with. He needs to earn the respect of the officials by playing controlled ball.

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    Raptors Republic Starter RaptorDan's Avatar
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    Buddhafan says: "oh Amir. OH AMIR. You are so big and strong. No, he's not a young nubile 210, he's 235 pounds of rippling manhood. Here's his stats:

    glistening pecs: Team Rank 1st
    Long lean legs: Team Rank 1st
    Sculpted Biceps: Team Rank 1st
    General Handsomeness: Team Rank 1st

    As the stats have shown, Amir is quite a man and deserves the title of captain of my heart."

    Sorry Buddha, couldn't resist. You do have quite the man crush.
    Last edited by RaptorDan; Tue Nov 23rd, 2010 at 05:43 PM.
    Never, under any circumstances, take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.

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