I've read enough in the threads around here to realize that some people require clarification on some items. I do not claim to be a CBA expert so please feel free to correct anything that you feel I've missed the mark on.
Starting off, the current cap figure is $57.7M, with a luxury tax threshold of $69.9M.
The following quotes are taken from ESPN's Marc Stein:
In a memo announcing next season's salary cap and luxury-tax thresholdNBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 seasonESPN.comIf basketball-related income drops by 2.5 percent in 2009-10, league officials are projecting a 2010-11 salary cap of $53.6 million and a luxury-tax line of $65 million
Thanks to ESPN for providing such a clear article on matters which are sometimes cloudy at best. Moving on, below is a figure I created to illustrate the best case scenario and the worst case scenario this summer should Bosh leave town:
As you can see the best case scenario would land the Raptors in territory to sign an above average player but not a star. The Worst case scenario has the Raptors only able to sign a player on the level of an Jarret Jack or Reggie Evans.
Another important note is that in both of these scenarios the MLE(Mid Level Exception) would not be at their disposal. The MLE is specifically for teams over the salary cap. It is also important to note that even if the Raptors used all their cap space on the market they would still not be allowed to use the MLE. The only way the Raptors can get the MLE this coming off season is if they re-sign enough of their players that they meet or go over the salary cap.
And so this brings me to my important message to all Raptors fans. If Bosh leaves without the Raptors receiving compensation things become grim. There will not be enough cap space to allow them to move forward successfully. A complete rebuild would probably be in order. If Colangelo does not re-sign Bosh or land good pieces in a S&T he will have failed us all.