Is a lockout looming in 2011?

[jamesk]

Agreed, it would have to grand-fathered in, otherwise the owners are shanking themselves.

[jamesk]

Re; Parity, is it a good thing? In the NFL, outside of the colts, who knows which team will make the playoffs any given year, in the NHL, who knows who will win in the playoffs any given year. Exciting for the fanbase, sure you always have a chance, and it's always fun to see an upset, but when the 8 or 6 seed winning isn't an upset, and when the semi-finals include teams of dubious quality, it's due to parity. I much prefer the climb to the top of the mountain element of sport, and posit that a 1vs.2 matchup in any sport is the most compelling, especially one in which those two teams have earned their place, shaped their rosters and honed their craft in the process of pursuing a championship. Perhaps the best mixture of both elements is the final four tournament, and is there a better round than regional finals? Usually two teams that have what it takes to go all the way, teams that draw elite players and build a high calibre brand of basketball, after the cinderellas have told their stories and gone home. Every franchise should be given that chance, to have run for a few years, therefore, I hope some elements of the tax remain, the exceptions perhaps and a limit on tax spending to a small percentage of the cap. Of course, limits on lenght of deals I imagine will be included and a big issue for owners, as it should be. i can't imagine what nhl owners are thinking with 12 year deals ! But it would be even better if it included proviso's such as the franchise tag, or team options on top of ,say, max 4 year deals. Building a team is hard because it involves predicting the future, and i hope they are able to give themselves the tools and flexibility to do so for the long term well as well as the ability to rectify in the shor term. Remember, hard caps will make trades even more difficult, and more about numbers than anything else.

[DoubleR_T]

I don't think this is really a bad situation for the Raptors at all, while we are a well-financed team who given the opportunity would spend above the cap to win, if Bosh leaves next year it will illustrate how it isn't as easy as you would think to spend that money. The Raps are regularly around the cap right now, a hard cap would eventually level the playing field a bit, and at this point I'll take anything that gives the Raps if not a better chance, just a totally different situation and marketplace for contracts. In a hard cap league maybe players would have less ability and/or willingness to shun Toronto.

[Apollo]

I called this a long time ago. We're seeing a depression in the states and all indications, regardless of what Obama says, points to things getting worse. Revenues are shrinking and half the league is in the red. Things need to change and the NBA owners seem like their ready to bust some skulls just like the NHL did. I read something last year where one person in the league front office suggested that there are teams who would lose less money in a lockout than they were currently losing by paying the bills the come with being in operation(ie: player salaries, travel expenses, etc.). Half the league needed a loan to pay the bills last season. The owners will lock the players out for as long as needed, just like the NHL did. Just like the NHLPA did, the players in the NBA will cave. A lot of these guys live really expensive lifestyles and they're going to feel the squeeze very quickly in a lock out.

[Apollo]

"It's going to be a nuclear winter for them," Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban predicted.

"I think most of the teams, there'll be some sort of an effect," New Jersey Nets president Rod Thorn said.

"I can't speak for 30 owners and management teams," said Gregg Popovich, the San Antonio Spurs' coach and president. "But I'm sure that tightening of the belt is something that goes through every organization's head, for obvious reasons. We're all part of the economy, too."

Scripps News

[Apollo]

Owners of various teams within the National Basketball Association (NBA) are finding it difficult to complete day-to-day transactions, due to the economic crisis at hand. Some owners have lost millions of dollars recently

“If money is needed for the upkeep of the facilities, the players and coaches need to bite the dust and take the pay cut,” said Deandre Henderson, a sophomore Economics major at Howard University. “It is obvious that the diminishing state of the economy is taking a toll on its revenue stream so they must make the necessary cuts to follow suit. Borrowing the money will only hurt the economy more in the short run.”

The HillTop

[Apollo]

We knew about layoffs of employees within the league and various franchises. We knew various local and national sponsors were bailing, most notably car companies and major banks (two staples for the NBA). We knew certain franchises were losing significant wads of money and reacting accordingly. (Details are still trickling out. For instance, after the trade deadline, The Sacramento Bee reported the Kings would have lost $25 million had they not dumped Brad Miller's salary and bought out Mikki Moore, and the newspaper's Kings blog reported team employees were no longer allowed to work overtime or eat dinner in the media room.) Even trade talk -- normally a staple of any All-Star Weekend -- revolved more around themes such as, "They have to cut payroll," "They can't take on any money right now" and "They're too terrified of the tax to do anything."

Teams are locked into swollen contracts that suddenly make no sense, whether it's non-franchise players making franchise money (Vince, T-Mac, Shaq, Brand, Baron, Jermaine O'Neal, Dalembert, Okafor, etc.) or overpaid role players making six to 600 times what they should be making (Marko Jaric, Nazr Mohammed, Larry Hughes, Radmanovic, Mo Peterson, etc.).

Which brings us to the Lockout That Hasn't Happened Yet. Unless the players' association agrees to major concessions by the summer of 2011 -- highly doubtful because that would involve applying common sense -- the owners will happily lock out players as soon as the current CBA expires, then play the same devious waiting game from the summer of 1998. David Stern will grow another scruffy beard. The owners will plant their feet in the sand, grab the tug-of-war rope and dig in. Only this time, they KNOW they will win. See, we learned a dirty little secret in the last lockout: An inordinate number of NBA players live paycheck to paycheck. Yes, even the guys making eight figures a year. You can play high-stakes poker with them … and you will win.

"I don't need to worry about money, I'm making $10 mil a year!" I know it sounds farfetched, but I've heard the Inexplicable Tale Of Financial Woe with NBA stars too many times to count

Remember the lessons of the '99 lockout -- the players HAD to come back. And it wasn't because they missed playing.

(And by the way, nobody loves basketball more than me. I mean, NOBODY. But when an NBA player with two years remaining on his contract for a total of $44 million shows up for the season out of shape, complains most of the year, lets down his teammates and fans again and again, lands in some trade rumors and decides, "Instead of getting traded to a team I don't like, I'm going to announce that I'm getting microfracture surgery four days before the trade deadline and kill any potential trade, and even better, I'll be healed by next spring, just in time to showcase myself for another contract," and successfully pulls this off -- with no repercussions from anybody -- then yes, the system is broken and needs to be fixed. Because that was disgusting. Tracy McGrady, you are officially indefensible for the rest of eternity. Even your cousin Vince wouldn't have done that. And that's saying something.)

ESPN.com

[Marz]

Apollo that article's from last year! :P

[Apollo]

Yeah, I know. I've used them in multiple places now but they apply to what's going on.

[Apollo]

If a lockout happens in 2011, LeBron & Co. will be out of work, just like the rank-and-file players. And according to sources familiar with the negotiations, maximum contracts will be under heavy attack. Worse, the owners want existing contracts to be slashed rather than grandfathered untouched into the new agreement. Locking in long-term deals this summer could be for naught.

This makes sense for the owners because if if they do manage to knock the cap and all the future contracts down a notch there would still be a bottle neck created by the current batch of contracts which would not fit the new system. Not to mention some of the owners are losing money now and need to stop the bleeding now if they wants to have a future.

But what alternative do the players have?

“If they don’t like the new max contracts, LeBron can play football, where he will make less than the new max,” one team executive told CBSSports.com. “Wade can be a fashion model or whatever. They won’t make squat and no one will remember who they are in a few years.”


I think he's right but...

Here’s a possible situation:

They present a united front to the league: “If there’s a lockout, we’re heading overseas.”

Another team executive did not see Europe as a viable threat. “The economics in Europe are just as bad, if not worse than here,” he said. “If a team paid more than the N.B.A., they wouldn’t be in business long.”

But the team executive was not overly concerned about the prospect of losing players. “The goal is to fix the economics of the league so it is sustainable for all franchises,” he said. “This is far less a star-driven league than you think. Losing guys to Europe would not change anything, any more than it changes things for European teams when they lose guys to us.”

Personally, I'm still going to watch NBA ball with or without a handful of top stars. I certainly would not be up for paying to watch games of LeBron's on PPV from Europe.

The Lakers’ Derek Fisher, president of the players association, said the union isn’t thinking in those terms yet. “It’s a long way away,” he said. “I can’t speak for what guys might do individually, but we’ll have some things planned — some things we’ll need to fall back on if things go a certain way. Right now we’re trying to stay focused on the positives and take advantage of there being a year and a half before we get down to doomsday.”

One agent sees China as a potential wild card. Bernie Lee, who represents John Lucas III of the Shanghai Sharks, envisions the Chinese Basketball Association joining together with shoe companies to create a viable business model to attract premier N.B.A. players. “You’d have guys making huge money, and open up marketing opportunities that just don’t exist in North America anymore,” he said. “I can’t imagine what would happen if you put Dwyane Wade in Beijing or Chris Bosh in Shanghai — the opportunities would be endless.”

Source: NY Times

[mo-sales]

A lockout is almost guaranteed as salaries have been going up exponentially for too long and most players feel it is a rite of passage to make at least make 10 million a year. The first lock out mainly served to establish a rookie pay scale and the ever looming luxury tax. This next one is going to scale down salaries. Most owners aren't in the ownership business to lose money and that is what the majority of them are doing.

The part of the lockout that intrigues me the most is its potential effect on the actual NBA. Will it improve parity and more importantly how will it affect the Toronto Raptors? With a hard cap and reduced years for guaranteed contracts bloated deals that bleed teams for years will go the way of the dodo and teams will be able to rebuild and revamp thier team more effectively and efficiently.

Currently the only ways for mid market teams that have trouble attracting premier free agents to become championship contenders is by hitting the lottery ala Lebron or completely hijacking a team via trade.

The new CBA is going to create a window of opportunity as teams adjust to the new financial system. If the raptors brass ever want to join the upper echelon of contenders, they will need to use this window to their advantage.

The first sign of this is the upcoming NBA draft. There will be an abundance of players coming out a year earlier to avoid the lockout or being locked into the new CBA. As a result this is going to be one of the most loaded drafts in years and the one after it one of the weakest.

[Apollo]

The new CBA is going to create a window of opportunity as teams adjust to the new financial system. If the raptors brass ever want to join the upper echelon of contenders, they will need to use this window to their advantage.

I agree. Where they're headed will move the league into a direction that allows for a level playing field along the lines of the NFL. In just a couple seasons a team in the NFL can go from worst to best if they play their cards right. Everyone builds through the draft instead of taking advantage of teams who cannot afford to pay the inflated deals that were required to keep their stars. A hard cap cures all but a hard cap would be near impossible to implement without players having their contacts restructured.

[mo-sales]

I'm very interested to see what happens with all these free agents trying to get max deals. Is the understanding that they will be grandfathered in and the 22 million they are making will only count as say the new 15 million max. Otherwise letting Bosh walk isn't the worst thing in the world. I love Bosh, but not 40% of our payroll kind of love.

What player is going to set the bar for max contracts? Obviously Bron, Wade and Bosh are going to get inked, but have we reached a point where Joe and Amare in today's economy aren't going to get thier max deals?

The future of contending in the NBA from my unenlightened opinion is going to revolve around rookie contracts and bargain bin vets. If there is a hard cap, it seems shortsighted to put all your eggs in one basket unless his name rhymes with Tron.